A structural variation reference for medical and population genetics.

Structural variants (SVs) rearrange large segments of DNA1 and can have profound consequences in evolution and human disease2,3. As national biobanks, disease-association studies, and clinical genetic testing have grown increasingly reliant on genome sequencing, population references such as the Genome Aggregation Database (gnomAD)4 have become integral in the interpretation of single-nucleotide variants (SNVs)5. However, there are no reference maps of SVs from high-coverage genome sequencing comparable to those for SNVs. Here we present a reference of sequence-resolved SVs constructed from 14,891 genomes across diverse global populations (54% non-European) in gnomAD. We discovered a rich and complex landscape of 433,371 SVs, from which we estimate that SVs are responsible for 25-29% of all rare protein-truncating events per genome. We found strong correlations between natural selection against damaging SNVs and rare SVs that disrupt or duplicate protein-coding sequence, which suggests that genes that are highly intolerant to loss-of-function are also sensitive to increased dosage6. We also uncovered modest selection against noncoding SVs in cis-regulatory elements, although selection against protein-truncating SVs was stronger than all noncoding effects. Finally, we identified very large (over one megabase), rare SVs in 3.9% of samples, and estimate that 0.13% of individuals may carry an SV that meets the existing criteria for clinically important incidental findings7. This SV resource is freely distributed via the gnomAD browser8 and will have broad utility in population genetics, disease-association studies, and diagnostic screening.

Association of Urinary Metals With Cardiovascular Disease Incidence and All-Cause Mortality in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND: Exposure to metals has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) end points and mortality, yet prospective evidence is limited beyond arsenic, cadmium, and lead. In this study, we assessed the prospective association of urinary metals with incident CVD and all-cause mortality in a racially diverse population of US adults from MESA (the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). METHODS: We included 6599 participants (mean [SD] age, 62.1 [10.2] years; 53% female) with urinary metals available at baseline (2000 to 2001) and followed through December 2019. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio and 95% CI of CVD and all-cause mortality by baseline urinary levels of cadmium, tungsten, and uranium (nonessential metals), and cobalt, copper, and zinc (essential metals). The joint association of the 6 metals as a mixture and the corresponding 10-year survival probability was calculated using Cox Elastic-Net. RESULTS: During follow-up, 1162 participants developed CVD, and 1844 participants died. In models adjusted by behavioral and clinical indicators, the hazard ratios (95% CI) for incident CVD and all-cause mortality comparing the highest with the lowest quartile were, respectively: 1.25 (1.03, 1.53) and 1.68 (1.43, 1.96) for cadmium; 1.20 (1.01, 1.42) and 1.16 (1.01, 1.33) for tungsten; 1.32 (1.08, 1.62) and 1.32 (1.12, 1.56) for uranium; 1.24 (1.03, 1.48) and 1.37 (1.19, 1.58) for cobalt; 1.42 (1.18, 1.70) and 1.50 (1.29, 1.74) for copper; and 1.21 (1.01, 1.45) and 1.38 (1.20, 1.59) for zinc. A positive linear dose-response was identified for cadmium and copper with both end points. The adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) for an interquartile range (IQR) increase in the mixture of these 6 urinary metals and the corresponding 10-year survival probability difference (95% CI) were 1.29 (1.11, 1.56) and -1.1% (-2.0, -0.05) for incident CVD and 1.66 (1.47, 1.91) and -2.0% (-2.6, -1.5) for all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This epidemiological study in US adults indicates that urinary metal levels are associated with increased CVD risk and mortality. These findings can inform the development of novel preventive strategies to improve cardiovascular health.

Role of Polyunsaturated Fat in Modifying Cardiovascular Risk Associated With Family History of Cardiovascular Disease: Pooled De Novo Results From 15 Observational Studies.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether dietary intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) modifies the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk associated with a family history of CVD. We assessed interactions between biomarkers of low PUFA intake and a family history in relation to long-term CVD risk in a large consortium. METHODS: Blood and tissue PUFA data from 40 885 CVD-free adults were assessed. PUFA levels ≤25th percentile were considered to reflect low intake of linoleic, alpha-linolenic, and eicosapentaenoic/docosahexaenoic acids (EPA/DHA). Family history was defined as having ≥1 first-degree relative who experienced a CVD event. Relative risks with 95% CI of CVD were estimated using Cox regression and meta-analyzed. Interactions were assessed by analyzing product terms and calculating relative excess risk due to interaction. RESULTS: After multivariable adjustments, a significant interaction between low EPA/DHA and family history was observed (product term pooled RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.02-1.16]; P=0.01). The pooled relative risk of CVD associated with the combined exposure to low EPA/DHA, and family history was 1.41 (95% CI, 1.30-1.54), whereas it was 1.25 (95% CI, 1.16-1.33) for family history alone and 1.06 (95% CI, 0.98-1.14) for EPA/DHA alone, compared with those with neither exposure. The relative excess risk due to interaction results indicated no interactions. CONCLUSIONS: A significant interaction between biomarkers of low EPA/DHA intake, but not the other PUFA, and a family history was observed. This novel finding might suggest a need to emphasize the benefit of consuming oily fish for individuals with a family history of CVD.

Associations Between Flavonoid Intake and Subclinical Atherosclerosis: The MESA.

BACKGROUND: Flavonoids may play a role in mitigating atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases, with evidence suggesting effects may differ between vascular beds. Studies examining associations with subclinical markers of atherosclerosis between subpopulations with different underlying risks of atherosclerosis are lacking. METHODS: Among 5599 participants from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), associations between dietary flavonoid intakes (estimated from a food frequency questionnaire) and subclinical measures of atherosclerosis (ankle-brachial index, carotid plaques and intima-media thickness, and coronary artery calcification) were examined using repeated measures models. Exposures and outcomes were measured at exam 1 (2000-2002) and exam 5 (2010-2011). Stratified analyses and interaction terms were used to explore effect modification by time, sex, race/ethnicity, and smoking status. RESULTS: In the analytic population, at baseline, ≈46% were males with a median age of 62 (interquartile range, 53-70) years and total flavonoid intakes of 182 (interquartile range, 98-308) mg/d. After multivariable adjustments, participants with the highest (quartile 4) versus lowest (quartile 1) total flavonoid intakes had 26% lower odds of having an ankle-brachial index <1 (odds ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.60-0.92]) and 18% lower odds of having a carotid plaque (odds ratio, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.69-0.99]), averaged over exams 1 and 5. Moderate (quartile 3) to high (quartile 4) intakes of flavonols, flavanol monomers, and anthocyanins were associated with 19% to 34% lower odds of having an ankle-brachial index <1 and 18% to 20% lower odds of having carotid plaque. Participants with the highest intakes of anthocyanins (quartile 4) at baseline had a marginally slower rate of carotid plaque progression than those with moderate intakes (quartiles 2 and 3). There were no significant associations with intima-media thickness or coronary artery calcification. Observed associations did not differ by sex, race/ethnicity, or smoking status. CONCLUSIONS: In this multi-ethnic population, higher dietary flavonoid intakes were associated with lower odds of peripheral and carotid artery atherosclerosis. Increasing intakes of healthy, flavonoid-rich foods may protect against atherosclerosis in the peripheral and carotid arteries.

IgE to common food allergens is associated with cardiovascular mortality in the National Health and Examination Survey and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: In individuals without symptomatic food allergy, food-specific IgE is considered clinically irrelevant. However, recent studies have suggested that galactose-α-1,3-galactose (alpha-gal) IgE is associated with cardiovascular (CV) disease. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine whether sensitization to common food allergens is associated with CV mortality. METHODS: The association between IgE sensitization to foods and CV mortality ascertained to 2019 was examined in the National Health and Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2006 and the Wake Forest site of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort; MESA enrolled adults without baseline clinical CV diseases between 2000 and 2002. Total and specific IgE was measured to cow's milk, egg, peanut, shrimp, and a panel of aeroallergens (NHANES), and to cow's milk, alpha-gal, peanut, dust mite, and timothy grass (MESA). Cox proportional hazard models were constructed, adjusting for sex, age, race/ethnicity, smoking, education, and asthma. RESULTS: A total of 4414 adults from NHANES (229 CV deaths) and 960 from MESA (56 CV deaths) were included. In NHANES, sensitization to at least 1 food was associated with higher CV mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.7 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2-2.4], P = .005). Milk sensitization was particularly associated (HR, 2.0 [95% CI, 1.1-3.8], P = .026), a finding replicated in MESA (HR, 3.8 [95% CI, 1.6-9.1], P = .003). Restricting analyses in NHANES to consumers of the relevant allergen strengthened food sensitization relationships, unmasking shrimp and peanut sensitization as additional risk factors for CV mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The finding that food sensitization is associated with increased risk of CV mortality challenges the current paradigm that sensitization without overt allergy is benign. Further research is needed to clarify mechanisms of this association.

Association of HIV and HCV Infection With Carotid Artery Plaque Echomorphology in the MACS/WIHS Combined Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) are associated with increased risk of carotid artery atherosclerotic plaque and stroke. We examined associations of HIV- and HCV-related factors with echomorphologic features of carotid artery plaque. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included participants from the MACS (Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study)/WIHS (Women's Interagency HIV Study) Combined Cohort Study who underwent high-resolution B-mode carotid artery ultrasound. Plaques were characterized from 6 areas of the right carotid artery. Poisson regression controlling for demographic and cardiometabolic risk factors determined adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) and 95% CIs for associations of HIV- and HCV-related factors with echomorphologic features. RESULTS: Of 2655 participants (65% women, median age 44 [interquartile range, 37-50] years), 1845 (70%) were living with HIV, 600 (23%) were living with HCV, and 425 (16%) had carotid plaque. There were 191 plaques identified in 129 (11%) women with HIV, 51 plaques in 32 (7%) women without HIV, 248 plaques in 171 (28%) men with HIV, and 139 plaques in 93 (29%) men without HIV. Adjusted analyses showed that people with HIV and current CD4+ count <200 cells/µL had a significantly higher prevalence of predominantly echolucent plaque (aPR, 1.86 [95% CI, 1.08-3.21]) than those without HIV. HCV infection alone (aPR, 1.86 [95% CI, 1.08-3.19]) and HIV-HCV coinfection (aPR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.10-2.78]) were each associated with higher prevalence of predominantly echogenic plaque. HIV-HCV coinfection was also associated with higher prevalence of smooth surface plaque (aPR, 2.75 [95% CI, 1.03-7.32]) compared with people without HIV and HCV. CONCLUSIONS: HIV with poor immunologic control, as well as HCV infection, either alone or in the presence of HIV, were associated with different echomorphologic phenotypes of carotid artery plaque.

Development, characterization, and replication of proteomic aging clocks: Analysis of 2 population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Biological age may be estimated by proteomic aging clocks (PACs). Previous published PACs were constructed either in smaller studies or mainly in white individuals, and they used proteomic measures from only one-time point. In this study, we created de novo PACs and compared their performance to published PACs at 2 different time points in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study of white and black participants (around 75% white and 25% black). MEDTHODS AND FINDINGS: A total of 4,712 plasma proteins were measured using SomaScan in blood samples collected in 1990 to 1992 from 11,761 midlife participants (aged 46 to 70 years) and in 2011 to 2013 from 5,183 late-life participants (aged 66 to 90 years). The de novo ARIC PACs were constructed by training them against chronological age using elastic net regression in two-thirds of healthy participants in midlife and late life and validated in the remaining one-third of healthy participants at the corresponding time point. We also computed 3 published PACs. We estimated age acceleration for each PAC as residuals after regressing each PAC on chronological age. We also calculated the change in age acceleration from midlife to late life. We examined the associations of age acceleration and change in age acceleration with mortality through 2019 from all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and lower respiratory disease (LRD) using Cox proportional hazards regression in participants (irrespective of health) after excluding the training set. The model was adjusted for chronological age, smoking, body mass index (BMI), and other confounders. We externally validated the midlife PAC using the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Exam 1 data. The ARIC PACs had a slightly stronger correlation with chronological age than published PACs in healthy participants at each time point. Associations with mortality were similar for the ARIC PACs and published PACs. For late-life and midlife age acceleration for the ARIC PACs, respectively, hazard ratios (HRs) per 1 standard deviation were 1.65 and 1.38 (both p < 0.001) for all-cause mortality, 1.37 and 1.20 (both p < 0.001) for CVD mortality, 1.21 (p = 0.028) and 1.04 (p = 0.280) for cancer mortality, and 1.46 and 1.68 (both p < 0.001) for LRD mortality. For the change in age acceleration, HRs for all-cause, CVD, and LRD mortality were comparable to the HRs for late-life age acceleration. The association between the change in age acceleration and cancer mortality was not significant. The external validation of the midlife PAC in MESA showed significant associations with mortality, as observed for midlife participants in ARIC. The main limitation is that our PACs were constructed in midlife and late-life participants. It is unknown whether these PACs could be applied to young individuals. CONCLUSIONS: In this longitudinal study, we found that the ARIC PACs and published PACs were similarly associated with an increased risk of mortality. These findings suggested that PACs show promise as biomarkers of biological age. PACs may be serve as tools to predict mortality and evaluate the effect of anti-aging lifestyle and therapeutic interventions.

High Incidence Rate of Computed Tomography-Measured Steatotic Liver Disease in Men With and Without HIV Infection.

INTRODUCTION: We determined steatotic liver disease (SLD) incidence in a prospective cohort of men with HIV (MWH) and men without HIV (MWOH). METHODS: Incident SLD was defined using paired noncontrast computed tomography scans performed during 2010-2013 and repeated during 2015-2017. RESULTS: Of 268 men, 173 MWH and 95 MWOH, 33 had incident SLD (11.1%, incidence rate 2.4 and 2.7/100 person-years for MWH and MWOH, respectively). Overall, higher abdominal visceral adipose tissue was independently associated with increased SLD risk. In MWH, increased visceral adipose tissue, insulin resistance, chronic hepatitis B, and cumulative etravirine use were associated with SLD. DISCUSSION: Metabolic factors, but not HIV, were associated with incident SLD. The high incidence rate suggests that SLD will continue to increase in PWH.

The Role of Social Determinants of Health in Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review seeks to provide important information on each of the major domains of social determinants of health (SDOH) in the context of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. RECENT FINDINGS: SDOH can be classified into five domains: social and community context, health care access and quality, neighborhood and built environment, economic stability, and education access and quality. SDOH are major drivers for cardiovascular health outcomes that exceed the impact from traditional risk factors, and explain inequities in health outcomes observed across different groups of individuals. SDOH profoundly impacts healthcare's receipt, delivery, and outcomes. Many patients fall within various disenfranchised groups (e.g., identify with minority race, low socioeconomic status, low educational attainment, LGBTQ+), which impact overall health status and care. Learning to understand, recognize, and address SDOH as the driving force of disparities are critical for achieving health equity in the prevention and adequate treatment of ASCVD.

Dyslipidemia, inflammation, calcification, and adiposity in aortic stenosis: a genome-wide study.

AIMS: Although highly heritable, the genetic etiology of calcific aortic stenosis (AS) remains incompletely understood. The aim of this study was to discover novel genetic contributors to AS and to integrate functional, expression, and cross-phenotype data to identify mechanisms of AS. METHODS AND RESULTS: A genome-wide meta-analysis of 11.6 million variants in 10 cohorts involving 653 867 European ancestry participants (13 765 cases) was performed. Seventeen loci were associated with AS at P ≤ 5 × 10-8, of which 15 replicated in an independent cohort of 90 828 participants (7111 cases), including CELSR2-SORT1, NLRP6, and SMC2. A genetic risk score comprised of the index variants was associated with AS [odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation, 1.31; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26-1.35; P = 2.7 × 10-51] and aortic valve calcium (OR per standard deviation, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.08-1.37; P = 1.4 × 10-3), after adjustment for known risk factors. A phenome-wide association study indicated multiple associations with coronary artery disease, apolipoprotein B, and triglycerides. Mendelian randomization supported a causal role for apolipoprotein B-containing lipoprotein particles in AS (OR per g/L of apolipoprotein B, 3.85; 95% CI, 2.90-5.12; P = 2.1 × 10-20) and replicated previous findings of causality for lipoprotein(a) (OR per natural logarithm, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.17-1.23; P = 4.8 × 10-73) and body mass index (OR per kg/m2, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.9; P = 1.9 × 10-12). Colocalization analyses using the GTEx database identified a role for differential expression of the genes LPA, SORT1, ACTR2, NOTCH4, IL6R, and FADS. CONCLUSION: Dyslipidemia, inflammation, calcification, and adiposity play important roles in the etiology of AS, implicating novel treatments and prevention strategies.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: The MESA Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in population health, marked racial and ethnic disparities in longevity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality persist. This study aimed to describe risks for all-cause and CVD mortality by race and ethnicity, before and after accounting for socioeconomic status (SES) and other factors, in the MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). METHODS: MESA recruited 6814 US adults, 45 to 84 years of age, free of clinical CVD at baseline, including Black, White, Hispanic, and Chinese individuals (2000-2002). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling with time-updated covariates, we evaluated the association of self-reported race and ethnicity with all-cause and adjudicated CVD mortality, with progressive adjustments for age and sex, SES (neighborhood SES, income, education, and health insurance), lifestyle and psychosocial risk factors, clinical risk factors, and immigration history. RESULTS: During a median of 15.8 years of follow-up, 22.8% of participants (n=1552) died, of which 5.3% (n=364) died of CVD. After adjusting for age and sex, Black participants had a 34% higher mortality hazard (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]), Chinese participants had a 21% lower mortality hazard (HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.66-0.95]), and there was no mortality difference in Hispanic participants (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.86-1.14]) compared with White participants. After adjusting for SES, the mortality HR for Black participants compared with White participants was reduced (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.01-1.34]) but still statistically significant. With adjustment for SES, the mortality hazards for Chinese and Hispanic participants also decreased in comparison with White participants. After further adjustment for additional risk factors and immigration history, Hispanic participants (HR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.63-0.94]) had a lower mortality risk than White participants, and hazard ratios for Black participants (HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.92-1.26]) and Chinese participants (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.60-1.08]) were not significantly different from those of White participants. Similar trends were seen for CVD mortality, although the age- and sex-adjusted HR for CVD mortality for Black participants compared with White participants was greater than all-cause mortality (HR, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.34-2.21] compared with HR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]). CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight persistent racial and ethnic differences in overall and CVD mortality, largely attributable to social determinants of health, and support the need to identify and act on systemic factors that shape differences in health across racial and ethnic groups.

AtheroSpectrum Reveals Novel Macrophage Foam Cell Gene Signatures Associated With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk.

BACKGROUND: Whereas several interventions can effectively lower lipid levels in people at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), cardiovascular event risks remain, suggesting an unmet medical need to identify factors contributing to cardiovascular event risk. Monocytes and macrophages play central roles in atherosclerosis, but studies have yet to provide a detailed view of macrophage populations involved in increased ASCVD risk. METHODS: A novel macrophage foaming analytics tool, AtheroSpectrum, was developed using 2 quantitative indices depicting lipid metabolism and the inflammatory status of macrophages. A machine learning algorithm was developed to analyze gene expression patterns in the peripheral monocyte transcriptome of MESA participants (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis; set 1; n=911). A list of 30 genes was generated and integrated with traditional risk factors to create an ASCVD risk prediction model (30-gene cardiovascular disease risk score [CR-30]), which was subsequently validated in the remaining MESA participants (set 2; n=228); performance of CR-30 was also tested in 2 independent human atherosclerotic tissue transcriptome data sets (GTEx [Genotype-Tissue Expression] and GSE43292). RESULTS: Using single-cell transcriptomic profiles (GSE97310, GSE116240, GSE97941, and FR-FCM-Z23S), AtheroSpectrum detected 2 distinct programs in plaque macrophages-homeostatic foaming and inflammatory pathogenic foaming-the latter of which was positively associated with severity of atherosclerosis in multiple studies. A pool of 2209 pathogenic foaming genes was extracted and screened to select a subset of 30 genes correlated with cardiovascular event in MESA set 1. A cardiovascular disease risk score model (CR-30) was then developed by incorporating this gene set with traditional variables sensitive to cardiovascular event in MESA set 1 after cross-validation generalizability analysis. The performance of CR-30 was then tested in MESA set 2 (P=2.60×10-4; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.742) and 2 independent data sets (GTEx: P=7.32×10-17; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.664; GSE43292: P=7.04×10-2; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.633). Model sensitivity tests confirmed the contribution of the 30-gene panel to the prediction model (likelihood ratio test; df=31, P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Our novel computational program (AtheroSpectrum) identified a specific gene expression profile associated with inflammatory macrophage foam cells. A subset of 30 genes expressed in circulating monocytes jointly contributed to prediction of symptomatic atherosclerotic vascular disease. Incorporating a pathogenic foaming gene set with known risk factors can significantly strengthen the power to predict ASCVD risk. Our programs may facilitate both mechanistic investigations and development of therapeutic and prognostic strategies for ASCVD risk.

Determinants of Incident Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events Among Those With Absent Coronary Artery Calcium: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Multisociety cholesterol guideline states that statin therapy may be withheld or delayed among intermediate-risk individuals in the absence of coronary artery calcium (CAC=0). We evaluated whether traditional cardiovascular risk factors are associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events among individuals with CAC=0 over long-term follow-up. METHODS: We included participants with CAC=0 at baseline from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a prospective cohort study of individuals free of clinical ASCVD at baseline. We used multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to study the association between cardiovascular risk factors (cigarette smoking, diabetes, hypertension, preventive medication use [aspirin and statin], family history of premature ASCVD, chronic kidney disease, waist circumference, lipid and inflammatory markers) and adjudicated incident ASCVD outcomes. RESULTS: We studied 3416 individuals (mean [SD] age 58 [9] years; 63% were female, 33% White, 31% Black, 12% Chinese American, and 24% Hispanic). Over a median follow-up of 16 years, there were 189 ASCVD events (composite of coronary heart disease and stroke) of which 91 were coronary heart disease, 88 were stroke, and 10 were both coronary heart disease and stroke events. The unadjusted event rates of ASCVD were ≤5 per 1000 person-years among individuals with CAC=0 for most risk factors with the exception of current cigarette smoking (7.3), diabetes (8.9), hypertension (5.4), and chronic kidney disease (6.8). After multivariable adjustment, risk factors that were significantly associated with ASCVD included current cigarette smoking: hazard ratio, 2.12 (95% CI, 1.32-3.42); diabetes: hazard ratio, 1.68 (95% CI, 1.01-2.80); and hypertension: hazard ratio, 1.57 (95% CI, 1.06-2.33). CONCLUSIONS: Current cigarette smoking, diabetes, and hypertension are independently associated with incident ASCVD over a 16-year follow-up among those with CAC=0.

Monogenic and Polygenic Contributions to QTc Prolongation in the Population.

BACKGROUND: Rare sequence variation in genes underlying cardiac repolarization and common polygenic variation influence QT interval duration. However, current clinical genetic testing of individuals with unexplained QT prolongation is restricted to examination of monogenic rare variants. The recent emergence of large-scale biorepositories with sequence data enables examination of the joint contribution of rare and common variations to the QT interval in the population. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide association study of the QTc in 84 630 UK Biobank participants and created a polygenic risk score (PRS). Among 26 976 participants with whole-genome sequencing and ECG data in the TOPMed (Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine) program, we identified 160 carriers of putative pathogenic rare variants in 10 genes known to be associated with the QT interval. We examined QTc associations with the PRS and with rare variants in TOPMed. RESULTS: Fifty-four independent loci were identified by genome-wide association study in the UK Biobank. Twenty-one loci were novel, of which 12 were replicated in TOPMed. The PRS composed of 1 110 494 common variants was significantly associated with the QTc in TOPMed (ΔQTc/decile of PRS=1.4 ms [95% CI, 1.3 to 1.5]; P=1.1×10-196). Carriers of putative pathogenic rare variants had longer QTc than noncarriers (ΔQTc=10.9 ms [95% CI, 7.4 to 14.4]). Of individuals with QTc>480 ms, 23.7% carried either a monogenic rare variant or had a PRS in the top decile (3.4% monogenic, 21% top decile of PRS). CONCLUSIONS: QTc duration in the population is influenced by both rare variants in genes underlying cardiac repolarization and polygenic risk, with a sizeable contribution from polygenic risk. Comprehensive assessment of the genetic determinants of QTc prolongation includes incorporation of both polygenic and monogenic risk.

Missense Genetic Variation of ICAM1 and Incident Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) is a cell surface protein that participates in endothelial activation and is hypothesized to play a central role in heart failure (HF). We evaluated associations of ICAM1 missense genetic variants with circulating ICAM-1 levels and with incident HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified 3 missense variants within ICAM1 (rs5491, rs5498 and rs1799969) and evaluated their associations with ICAM-1 levels in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). We determined the association among these 3 variants and incident HF in MESA. We separately evaluated significant associations in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. Of the 3 missense variants, rs5491 was common in Black participants (minor allele frequency [MAF] > 20%) and rare in other race/ethnic groups (MAF < 5%). In Black participants, the presence of rs5491 was associated with higher levels of circulating ICAM-1 at 2 timepoints separated by 8 years. Among Black participants in MESA (n = 1600), the presence of rs5491 was associated with an increased risk of incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF; HR = 2.30; [95% CI 1.25-4.21; P = 0.007]). The other ICAM1 missense variants (rs5498 and rs1799969) were associated with ICAM-1 levels, but there were no associations with HF. In ARIC, rs5491 was significantly associated with incident HF (HR = 1.24 [95% CI 1.02 - 1.51]; P = 0.03), with a similar direction of effect for HFpEF that was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: A common ICAM1 missense variant among Black individuals may be associated with increased risk of HF, which may be HFpEF-specific.

CT-derived pectoralis composition and incident pneumonia hospitalization using fully automated deep-learning algorithm: multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia-related hospitalization may be associated with advanced skeletal muscle loss due to aging (i.e., sarcopenia) or chronic illnesses (i.e., cachexia). Early detection of muscle loss may now be feasible using deep-learning algorithms applied on conventional chest CT. OBJECTIVES: To implement a fully automated deep-learning algorithm for pectoralis muscle measures from conventional chest CT and investigate longitudinal associations between these measures and incident pneumonia hospitalization according to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) status. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This analysis from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis included participants with available chest CT examinations between 2010 and 2012. We implemented pectoralis muscle composition measures from a fully automated deep-learning algorithm (Mask R-CNN, built on the Faster Region Proposal Network (R-) Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with an extension for mask identification) for two-dimensional segmentation. Associations between CT-derived measures and incident pneumonia hospitalizations were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for multiple confounders which include but are not limited to age, sex, race, smoking, BMI, physical activity, and forced-expiratory-volume-at-1 s-to-functional-vital-capacity ratio. Stratification analyses were conducted based on baseline COPD status. RESULTS: This study included 2595 participants (51% female; median age: 68 (IQR: 61, 76)) CT examinations for whom we implemented deep learning-derived measures for longitudinal analyses. Eighty-six incident pneumonia hospitalizations occurred during a median 6.67-year follow-up. Overall, pectoralis muscle composition measures did not predict incident pneumonia. However, in fully-adjusted models, only among participants with COPD (N = 507), CT measures like extramyocellular fat index (hazard ratio: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.22, 3.21, p value: 0.02), were independently associated with incident pneumonia. CONCLUSION: Reliable deep learning-derived pectoralis muscle measures could predict incident pneumonia hospitalization only among participants with known COPD. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Pectoralis muscle measures obtainable at zero additional cost or radiation exposure from any chest CT may have independent predictive value for clinical outcomes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients. KEY POINTS: •Identification of independent and modifiable risk factors of pneumonia can have important clinical impact on patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. •Opportunistic CT measures of adipose tissue within pectoralis muscles using deep-learning algorithms can be quickly obtainable at zero additional cost or radiation exposure. •Deep learning-derived pectoralis muscle measurements of intermuscular fat and its subcomponents are independently associated with subsequent incident pneumonia hospitalization.

Gut Microbiota, Plasma Metabolomic Profiles, and Carotid Artery Atherosclerosis in HIV Infection.

BACKGROUND: Alterations in gut microbiota and blood metabolomic profiles have been implicated in HIV infection and cardiovascular disease. However, it remains unclear whether alterations in gut microbiota may contribute to disrupted host blood metabolomic profiles in relation to atherosclerosis, especially in the context of HIV infection. METHODS: We analyzed cross-sectional associations between gut microbiota features and carotid artery plaque in 361 women with or at high risk of HIV (67% HIV+), and further integrated plaque-associated microbial features with plasma lipidomic/metabolomic profiles. Furthermore, in 737 women and men, we examined prospective associations of baseline gut bacteria-associated lipidomic and metabolomic profiles with incident carotid artery plaque over 7-year follow-up. RESULTS: We found 2 potentially pathogenic bacteria, Fusobacterium and Proteus, were associated with carotid artery plaque; while the beneficial butyrate producer Odoribacter was inversely associated with plaque. Fusobacterium and Proteus were associated with multiple lipids/metabolites which were clustered into 8 modules in network. A module comprised of 9 lysophosphatidylcholines and lysophosphatidylethanolamines and a module comprised of 9 diglycerides were associated with increased risk of carotid artery plaque (risk ratio [95% CI], 1.34 [1.09-1.64] and 1.24 [1.02-1.51] per SD increment, respectively). Functional analyses identified bacterial enzymes in lipid metabolism associated with these plasma lipids. In particular, phospholipase A1 and A2 are the key enzymes in the reactions producing lysophosphatidylcholines and lysophosphatidylethanolamines. CONCLUSIONS: Among individuals with or at high risk of HIV infection, we identified altered gut microbiota and related functional capacities in the lipid metabolism associated with disrupted plasma lipidomic profiles and carotid artery atherosclerosis.

Race/Ethnicity, Spirometry Reference Equations, and Prediction of Incident Clinical Events: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Lung Study.

Rationale: Normal values for FEV1 and FVC are currently calculated using cross-sectional reference equations that include terms for race/ethnicity, an approach that may reinforce disparities and is of unclear clinical benefit. Objectives: To determine whether race/ethnicity-based spirometry reference equations improve the prediction of incident chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) events and mortality compared with race/ethnicity-neutral equations. Methods: The MESA Lung Study, a population-based, prospective cohort study of White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian adults, performed standardized spirometry from 2004 to 2006. Predicted values for spirometry were calculated using race/ethnicity-based equations following guidelines and, alternatively, race/ethnicity-neutral equations without terms for race/ethnicity. Participants were followed for events through 2019. Measurements and Main Results: The mean age of 3,344 participants was 65 years, and self-reported race/ethnicity was 36% White, 25% Black, 23% Hispanic, and 17% Asian. There were 181 incident CLRD-related events and 547 deaths over a median of 11.6 years. There was no evidence that percentage predicted FEV1 or FVC calculated using race/ethnicity-based equations improved the prediction of CLRD-related events compared with those calculated using race/ethnicity-neutral equations (difference in C statistics for FEV1, -0.005; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.013 to 0.003; difference in C statistic for FVC, -0.008; 95% CI, -0.016 to -0.0006). Findings were similar for mortality (difference in C statistics for FEV1, -0.002; 95% CI, -0.008 to 0.003; difference in C statistics for FVC, -0.004; 95% CI, -0.009 to 0.001). Conclusions: There was no evidence that race/ethnicity-based spirometry reference equations improved the prediction of clinical events compared with race/ethnicity-neutral equations. The inclusion of race/ethnicity in spirometry reference equations should be reconsidered.

Atherothrombotic factors and atherosclerotic cardiovascular events: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

AIMS: Traditional atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk factors fail to address the full spectrum of the complex interplay of atherosclerotic and atherothrombotic factors integral to ASCVD events. This study sought to examine the association between atherothrombotic biomarkers and ASCVD events. METHODS AND RESULTS: The association between atherothrombotic biomarkers and 877 ASCVD events with and without adjustment for traditional risk factors was evaluated via Cox proportional hazards models and factor analysis in 5789 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants over a median follow-up of 14.7 years. Factor analysis accounted for multidimensional relationship and shared variance among study biomarkers, which identified two new variables: a thrombotic factor (Factor 1), principally defined by shared variance in fibrinogen, plasmin-antiplasmin complex, factor VIII, D-dimer, and lipoprotein(a), and a fibrinolytic factor (Factor 2), principally defined by shared variance of plasminogen and oxidized phospholipids on plasminogen. In a model including both factors, the thrombotic factor was associated with the higher risk of ASCVD events [hazard ratio (HR) 1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45, 1.70], while the fibrinolytic factor was associated with the lower risk of ASCVD events (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.70, 0.82), with estimated ASCVD free survival highest for low atherothrombotic Factor 1 and high atherothrombotic Factor 2. CONCLUSION: Two atherothrombotic factors, one representative of thrombotic propensity and the other representative of fibrinolytic propensity, were significantly and complementarily associated with incident ASCVD events, remained significantly associated with incident ASCVD after controlling for traditional risk factors, and have promise for identifying patients at high ASCVD event risk specifically due to their atherothrombotic profile.

Coronary Artery Calcium Score and Polygenic Risk Score for the Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Events.

Importance: Coronary artery calcium score and polygenic risk score have each separately been proposed as novel markers to identify risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but no prior studies have directly compared these markers in the same cohorts. Objective: To evaluate change in CHD risk prediction when a coronary artery calcium score, a polygenic risk score, or both are added to a traditional risk factor-based model. Design, Setting, and Participants: Two observational population-based studies involving individuals aged 45 years through 79 years of European ancestry and free of clinical CHD at baseline: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) study involved 1991 participants at 6 US centers and the Rotterdam Study (RS) involved 1217 in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Exposure: Traditional risk factors were used to calculate CHD risk (eg, pooled cohort equations [PCEs]), computed tomography for the coronary artery calcium score, and genotyped samples for a validated polygenic risk score. Main Outcomes and Measures: Model discrimination, calibration, and net reclassification improvement (at the recommended risk threshold of 7.5%) for prediction of incident CHD events were assessed. Results: The median age was 61 years in MESA and 67 years in RS. Both log (coronary artery calcium+1) and polygenic risk score were significantly associated with 10-year risk of incident CHD (hazards ratio per SD, 2.60; 95% CI, 2.08-3.26 and 1.43; 95% CI, 1.20-1.71, respectively), in MESA. The C statistic for the coronary artery calcium score was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.71-0.79) and for the polygenic risk score, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63-0.71). The change in the C statistic when each was added to the PCEs was 0.09 (95% CI, 0.06-0.13) for the coronary artery calcium score, 0.02 (95% CI, 0.00-0.04) for the polygenic risk score, and 0.10 (95% CI, 0.07-0.14) for both. Overall categorical net reclassification improvement was significant when the coronary artery calcium score (0.19; 95% CI, 0.06-0.28) but was not significant when the polygenic risk score (0.04; 95% CI, -0.05 to 0.10) was added to the PCEs. Calibration of the PCEs and models with coronary artery calcium and/or polygenic risk scores was adequate (all χ2<20). Subgroup analysis stratified by the median age demonstrated similar findings. Similar findings were observed for 10-year risk in RS and in longer-term follow-up in MESA (median, 16.0 years). Conclusions and Relevance: In 2 cohorts of middle-aged to older adults from the US and the Netherlands, the coronary artery calcium score had better discrimination than the polygenic risk score for risk prediction of CHD. In addition, the coronary artery calcium score but not the polygenic risk score significantly improved risk discrimination and risk reclassification for CHD when added to traditional risk factors.