Refuge-yeah or refuge-nah? Predicting locations of forest resistance and recruitment in a fiery world.

Climate warming, land use change, and altered fire regimes are driving ecological transformations that can have critical effects on Earth's biota. Fire refugia-locations that are burned less frequently or severely than their surroundings-may act as sites of relative stability during this period of rapid change by being resistant to fire and supporting post-fire recovery in adjacent areas. Because of their value to forest ecosystem persistence, there is an urgent need to anticipate where refugia are most likely to be found and where they align with environmental conditions that support post-fire tree recruitment. Using biophysical predictors and patterns of burn severity from 1180 recent fire events, we mapped the locations of potential fire refugia across upland conifer forests in the southwestern United States (US) (99,428 km2 of forest area), a region that is highly vulnerable to fire-driven transformation. We found that low pre-fire forest cover, flat slopes or topographic concavities, moderate weather conditions, spring-season burning, and areas affected by low- to moderate-severity fire within the previous 15 years were most commonly associated with refugia. Based on current (i.e., 2021) conditions, we predicted that 67.6% and 18.1% of conifer forests in our study area would contain refugia under moderate and extreme fire weather, respectively. However, potential refugia were 36.4% (moderate weather) and 31.2% (extreme weather) more common across forests that experienced recent fires, supporting the increased use of prescribed and resource objective fires during moderate weather conditions to promote fire-resistant landscapes. When overlaid with models of tree recruitment, 23.2% (moderate weather) and 6.4% (extreme weather) of forests were classified as refugia with a high potential to support post-fire recruitment in the surrounding landscape. These locations may be disproportionately valuable for ecosystem sustainability, providing habitat for fire-sensitive species and maintaining forest persistence in an increasingly fire-prone world.

Forest restoration treatments increased growth and did not change survival of ponderosa pines in severe drought, Arizona.

We report on survival and growth of ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex P. Lawson & C. Lawson) 2 decades after forest restoration treatments in the G. A. Pearson Natural Area, northern Arizona. Despite protection from harvest that conserved old trees, a dense forest susceptible to uncharacteristically severe disturbance had developed during more than a century of exclusion of the previous frequent surface-fire regime that ceased upon Euro-American settlement in approximately 1876. Trees were thinned in 1993 to emulate prefire-exclusion forest conditions, accumulated forest floor was removed, and surface fire was re-introduced at 4-years intervals (full restoration). There was also a partial restoration treatment consisting of thinning alone. Compared with untreated controls, mortality of old trees (mean age 243 years, maximum 462 years) differed by <1 tree ha-1 and old-tree survival was statistically indistinguishable between treatments (90.5% control, 92.3% full, 82.6% partial). Post-treatment growth as measured by basal area increment of both old (pre-1876) and young (post-1876) pines was significantly higher in both treatments than counterpart control trees for more than 2 decades following thinning. Drought meeting the definition of megadrought affected the region almost all the time since the onset of the experiment, including 3 years that were severely dry. Growth of all trees declined in the driest 3 years, but old and young treated trees had significantly less decline. Association of tree growth with temperature (negative correlation) and precipitation (positive correlation) was much weaker in treated trees, indicating that they may experience less growth decline from warmer, drier conditions predicted in future decades. Overall, tree responses after the first 2 decades following treatment suggest that forest restoration treatments have led to substantial, sustained improvement in the growth of old and young ponderosa pines without affecting old-tree survival, thereby improving resilience to a warming climate.

Trends of forest and ecosystem services changes in the Mescalero Apache Tribal Lands.

Forests are critically important for the provision of ecosystem services. The Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico, USA, are a hotspot for conservation management and the Mescalero Apache Tribe's homeland. The multiple ecosystem services and functions and its high vulnerability to changes in climate conditions make their forests of ecological, cultural, and social importance. We used data from the Mescalero Apache Tribal Lands (MATL) Continuous Forest Inventory over 30 yr to analyze changes in the structure and composition of ecosystems as well as trends in ecosystem services. Many provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting services were shared among the MATL ecosystems and were tied to foundational species dominance, which could serve as a reliable indicator of ecosystem functioning. Our analysis indicates that the MATL are in an ongoing transition from conifer forests to woodlands with declines in two foundation species, quaking aspen and ponderosa pine, linked to past forest management and changing climate. In addition, we detected a decrease in species richness and tree size variability, amplifying the risk of forest loss in a rapid climatic change. Continuous permanent plots located on a dense grid (1 × 1 km) such as the ones monitored by the Bureau of Indian Affairs are the most detailed data available to estimate forests multiresource transitions over time. Native lands across the USA could serve as the leading edge of detecting decadal-scale forest changes and tracking climate impacts.

Western Spruce Budworm Effects on Forest Resilience.

Western spruce budworm (Choristoneura freemani Razowski) is the most destructive defoliator of forests in the western US. Forests in northern New Mexico experienced high levels of WSBW-caused defoliation and subsequent mortality between the 1980s and 2010s. The effects of severe western spruce budworm outbreaks on stand dynamics in the US Southwest are still relatively unknown, but understanding the impacts is important to the management and resilience of these forests. To begin addressing this knowledge gap, we conducted a study along two gradients: an elevational gradient from mixed-conifer to spruce-fir forests and a gradient of WSBW-caused defoliation intensity. We recorded overstory and understory stand conditions (size structure, species composition, damaging agents). Western spruce budworm was the primary damaging agent of host trees in all stands andcaused host tree mortality across all size classes, particularly in spruce-fir stands. Results indicate an unsustainable level of mortality in spruce-fir stands and a transition towards non-host species in mixed-conifer stands. Low levels of regeneration coupled with high overstory mortality rates indicate a potential lack of resilience in spruce-fir stands, whereas resilience to future western spruce budworm defoliation events may have increased in mixed-conifer stands affected by these outbreaks.