Physical disabilities caused by leprosy in 100 million cohort in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy continues to be an important cause of physical disability in endemic countries such as Brazil. Knowledge of determinants of these events may lead to better control measures and targeted interventions to mitigate its impact on affected individuals. This study investigated such factors among the most vulnerable portion of the Brazilian population. METHODS: A large cohort was built from secondary data originated from a national registry of applicants to social benefit programs, covering the period 2001-2015, including over 114 million individuals. Data were linked to the leprosy notification system utilizing data from 2007 until 2014. Descriptive and bivariate analyses lead to a multivariate analysis using a multinomial logistic regression model with cluster-robust standard errors. Associations were reported as Odds Ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Among the original cohort members 21,565 new leprosy cases were identified between 2007 and 2014. Most of the cases (63.1%) had grade zero disability. Grades 1 and 2 represented 21 and 6%, respectively. Factors associated with increasing odds of grades 1 and 2 disability were age over 15 years old (ORs 2.39 and 1.95, respectively), less schooling (with a clear dose response effect) and being a multibacillary patient (ORs 3.5 and 8.22). Protective factors for both grades were being female (ORs 0.81 and 0.61) and living in a high incidence municipality (ORs 0.85 and 0.67). CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that the developing of physical disabilities remains a public health problem which increases the burden of leprosy, mainly for those with severe clinical features and worse socioeconomic conditions. Early diagnosis is paramount to decrease the incidence of leprosy-related disability and our study points to the need for strengthening control actions in non-endemic areas in Brazil, where cases may be missed when presented at early stages in disease. Both actions are needed, to benefit patients and to achieve the WHO goal in reducing physical disabilities among new cases of leprosy.

Challenges facing the More Doctors program (Programa Mais Médicos) in vulnerable and peri-urban areas in Greater Brasilia, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: A shortage of physicians, especially in vulnerable and peri-urban areas, is a global phenomenon that has serious implications for health systems, demanding policies to assure the provision and retention of health workers. The aim of this study was to analyze the strategies employed by the More Doctors Program (Programa Mais Médicos) to provide primary care physicians in vulnerable and peri-urban parts of Greater Brasilia. METHODS: The study used a qualitative approach based on the precepts of social constructivism. Forty-nine semi-structured interviews were conducted: 24 with physicians employed as part of the More Doctors program, five with program medical supervisors, seven with secondary care physicians, twelve with primary care coordinators, and one federal administrator. The interviews occurred between March and September 2019. The transcripts of the interviews were submitted to thematic content analysis. RESULTS: The partnership between the Ministry of Health and local authorities was essential for the provision of doctors-especially foreign doctors, most from Cuba, to assist vulnerable population groups previously without access to the health system. There was a notable presence of doctors with experience working with socioeconomically disadvantaged populations, which was important for gaining a better understanding of the effects of the endemic urban violence in the region. The incentives and other institutional support, such as enhanced salaries, training, and housing, transportation, and food allowances, were factors that helped provide a satisfactory working environment. However, the poor state of the infrastructure at some of the primary care units and limitations of the health service as a whole were factors that hampered the provision of comprehensive care, constituting a cause of dissatisfaction. CONCLUSIONS: More Doctors introduced a range of novel strategies that helped ensure a supply of primary care doctors in vulnerable and peri-urban parts of Greater Brasilia. The inclusion of foreign doctors, most from Cuba, was crucial for the success of the health services provided for the local communities, who subsist in violent and socioeconomically deprived urban areas. However, it became clear that barriers from within the health service itself hampered the physicians' capacity to provide a satisfactory service. As such, what is needed for primary care to be effective is not just the recruitment, training, and deployment of doctors, but also investment in the organization of the whole health system.

The association between a conditional cash transfer programme and malaria incidence: a longitudinal ecological study in the Brazilian Amazon between 2004 and 2015.

BACKGROUND: Malaria causes 400 thousand deaths worldwide annually. In 2018, 25% (187,693) of the total malaria cases in the Americas were in Brazil, with nearly all (99%) Brazilian cases in the Amazon region. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP) is a conditional cash transfer (CCT) programme launched in 2003 to reduce poverty and has led to improvements in health outcomes. CCT programmes may reduce the burden of malaria by alleviating poverty and by promoting access to healthcare, however this relationship is underexplored. This study investigated the association between BFP coverage and malaria incidence in Brazil. METHODS: A longitudinal panel study was conducted of 807 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon between 2004 and 2015. Negative binomial regression models adjusted for demographic and socioeconomic covariates and time trends were employed with fixed effects specifications. RESULTS: A one percentage point increase in municipal BFP coverage was associated with a 0.3% decrease in the incidence of malaria (RR = 0.997; 95% CI = 0.994-0.998). The average municipal BFP coverage increased 24 percentage points over the period 2004-2015 corresponding to be a reduction of 7.2% in the malaria incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Higher coverage of the BFP was associated with a reduction in the incidence of malaria. CCT programmes should be encouraged in endemic regions for malaria in order to mitigate the impact of disease and poverty itself in these settings.

Impact of the Programa Mais médicos (more doctors Programme) on primary care doctor supply and amenable mortality: quasi-experimental study of 5565 Brazilian municipalities.

BACKGROUND: Investing in human resources for health (HRH) is vital for achieving universal health care and the Sustainable Development Goals. The Programa Mais Médicos (PMM) (More Doctors Programme) provided 17,000 doctors, predominantly from Cuba, to work in Brazilian primary care. This study assesses whether PMM doctor allocation to municipalities was consistent with programme criteria and associated impacts on amenable mortality. METHODS: Difference-in-differences regression analysis, exploiting variation in PMM introduction across 5565 municipalities over the period 2008-2017, was employed to examine programme impacts on doctor density and mortality amenable to healthcare. Heterogeneity in effects was explored with respect to doctor allocation criteria and municipal doctor density prior to PMM introduction. RESULTS: After starting in 2013, PMM was associated with an increase in PMM-contracted primary care doctors of 15.1 per 100,000 population. However, largescale substitution of existing primary care doctors resulting in a net increase of only 5.7 per 100,000. Increases in both PMM and total primary care doctors were lower in priority municipalities due to lower allocation of PMM doctors and greater substitution effects. The PMM led to amenable mortality reductions of - 1.06 per 100,000 (95%CI: - 1.78 to - 0.34) annually - with greater benefits in municipalities prioritised for doctor allocation and where doctor density was low before programme implementation. CONCLUSIONS: PMM potential health benefits were undermined due to widespread allocation of doctors to non-priority areas and local substitution effects. Policies seeking to strengthen HRH should develop and implement needs-based criteria for resource allocation.

Prevention of neural tube defects by the fortification of flour with folic acid: a population-based retrospective study in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if the fortification of wheat and maize flours with iron and folic acid - which became mandatory in Brazil from June 2004 - is effective in the prevention of neural tube defects. METHODS: Using data from national information systems on births in central, south-eastern and southern Brazil, we determined the prevalence of neural tube defects among live births and stillbirths in a pre-fortification period - i.e. 2001-2004 - and in a post-fortification period - i.e. 2005-2014. We distinguished between anencephaly, encephalocele, meningocele, myelomeningocele and other forms of spina bifida. FINDINGS: There were 8554 neural tube defects for 17,925,729 live births notified between 2001 and 2014. For the same period, 2673 neural tube defects were reported for 194,858 stillbirths. The overall prevalence of neural tube defects fell from 0.79 per 1000 pre-fortification to 0.55 per 1000 post-fortification (prevalence ratio, PR: 1.43; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.38-1.50). For stillbirths, prevalence fell from 17.74 per 1000 stillbirths pre-fortification to 11.70 per 1000 stillbirths post-fortification. The corresponding values among live births were 0.57 and 0.44, respectively. CONCLUSION: The introduction of the mandatory fortification of flour with iron and folic acid in Brazil was followed by a significant reduction in the prevalence of neural tube defects in our study area.

Creation of complexity assessment tool for patients receiving home care.

OBJECTIVE: To create and validate a complexity assessment tool for patients receiving home care from a public health service. METHOD: A diagnostic accuracy study, with estimates for the tool's validity and reliability. Measurements of sensitivity and specificity were considered when producing validity estimates. The resulting tool was used for testing. Assessment by a specialized team of home care professionals was used as the gold standard. In the tool's reliability study, the authors used the Kappa statistic. The tool's sensitivity and specificity were analyzed using various cut-off points. RESULTS: On the best cut-off point-21-with the gold standard, a sensitivity of 75.5% was obtained, with the limits of confidence interval (95%) at 68.3% and 82.8% and specificity of 53.2%, with the limits of confidence interval (95%) at 43.8% and 62.7%. CONCLUSION: The tool presented evidence of validity and reliability, possibly helping in service organization at patient admission, care type change, or support during the creation of care plans. OBJETIVO: Elaborar e validar instrumento de classificação de complexidade assistencial de pacientes em atenção domiciliar de um serviço público de saúde. MÉTODO: Estudo de acurácia de diagnóstico, com estimativas de validade e de reprodutibilidade do instrumento. Para a estimativa da validade foram consideradas as medidas de sensibilidade e especificidade; como teste, o instrumento elaborado e como padrão ouro, a classificação atribuída por equipe especializada de profissionais de saúde em atenção domiciliar. No estudo de reprodutibilidade do instrumento foi utilizada a estatística Kappa. A sensibilidade e especificidade do instrumento foram analisadas considerando-se diferentes pontos de corte. RESULTADOS: Para o melhor ponto de corte - 21 - com o padrão ouro obteve-se Sensibilidade de 75,5% com os limites do IC (95%) iguais a 68,3% e 82,8% e Especificidade igual a 53,2% com os limites do IC (95%) iguais a 43,8% e 62,7%. CONCLUSÃO: O instrumento apresentou evidências de validade e reprodutibilidade, podendo vir a auxiliar na organização do serviço, quer na admissão do paciente, quer na migração de modalidade assistencial e no suporte para elaboração do plano terapêutico.

Evaluating social protection mitigation effects on HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis through a mathematical modelling study.

The global economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and worldwide inflation surge may have a profound impact on poverty-related infectious diseases, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this work, we developed mathematical models for HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis (TB) in Brazil, one of the largest and most unequal LMICs, incorporating poverty rates and temporal dynamics to evaluate and forecast the impact of the increase in poverty due to the economic crisis, and estimate the mitigation effects of alternative poverty-reduction policies on the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB up to 2030. Three main intervention scenarios were simulated-an economic crisis followed by the implementation of social protection policies with none, moderate, or strong coverage-evaluating the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB. Without social protection policies to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis, the burden of HIV/AIDS and TB would be significantly larger over the next decade, being responsible in 2030 for an incidence 13% (95% CI 4-31%) and mortality 21% (95% CI 12-34%) higher for HIV/AIDS, and an incidence 16% (95% CI 10-25%) and mortality 22% (95% CI 15-31%) higher for TB, if compared with a scenario of moderate social protection. These differences would be significantly larger if compared with a scenario of strong social protection, resulting in more than 230,000 cases and 34,000 deaths from AIDS and TB averted over the next decade in Brazil. Using a comprehensive approach, that integrated economic forecasting with mathematical and epidemiological models, we were able to show the importance of implementing robust social protection policies to avert a significant increase in incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB during the current global economic downturn.

The economic burden of households affected by tuberculosis in Brazil: First national survey results, 2019-2021.

BACKGROUND: One of the three main targets of the World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy (2015-2035) is that no tuberculosis (TB) patients or their households face catastrophic costs (defined as exceeding 20% of the annual household income) because of the disease. Our study seeks to determine, as a baseline, the magnitude and main drivers of the costs associated with TB disease for patients and their households and to monitor the proportion of households experiencing catastrophic costs in Brazil. METHODS: A national cross-sectional cluster-based survey was conducted in Brazil in 2019-2021 following WHO methodology. TB patients of all ages and types of TB were eligible for the survey. Adult TB patients and guardians of minors (<18 years old) were interviewed once about costs, time loss, coping measures, income, household expenses, and asset ownership. Total costs, including indirect costs measured as reported household income change, were expressed as a percentage of annual household income. We used descriptive statistics to analyze the cost drivers and multivariate logistic regression to determine factors associated with catastrophic costs. RESULTS: We interviewed 603 patients, including 538 (89%) with drug-sensitive (DS) and 65 (11%) with drug-resistant (DR) TB. Of 603 affected households, 48.1% (95%CI: 43-53.2) experienced costs above 20% of their annual household income during their TB episode. The proportion was 44.4% and 78.5% among patients with DS- and DR-TB, respectively. On average, patients incurred costs of US$1573 (95%CI: 1361.8-1785.0) per TB episode, including pre-diagnosis and post-diagnosis expenses. Key cost drivers were post-diagnosis nutritional supplements (US$317.6, 95%CI: 232.7-402.6) followed by medical costs (US$85.5, 95%CI: 54.3-116.5) and costs of travel for clinic visits during treatment (US$79.2, 95%CI: 61.9-96.5). In multivariate analysis, predictors of catastrophic costs included positive HIV status (aOR = 3.0, 95%CI:1.1-8.6) and self-employment (aOR = 2.7, 95%CI:1.1-6.5); high education was a protective factor (aOR = 0.1, 95%CI:0.0-0.9). CONCLUSIONS: Although the services offered to patients with TB are free of charge in the Brazilian public health sector, the availability of free diagnosis and treatment services does not alleviate patients' financial burden related to accessing TB care. The study allowed us to identify the costs incurred by patients and suggest actions to mitigate their suffering. In addition, this study established a baseline for monitoring catastrophic costs and fostering a national policy to reduce the costs to patients for TB care in Brazil.

[Differential aspects in the access to and quality of primary health care within the scope of the vaccine coverage for influenza]. / Aspectos diferenciais do acesso e qualidade da atenção primária à saúde no alcance da cobertura vacinal de influenza.

A drop in the percentages of vaccination coverage in Brazil has been detected in a scenario where there is progressive growth in the coverage of Primary Health Care (PHC), namely the location where most of the vaccination actions occur. This article investigated the differences in PHC access and quality profiles among municipalities that attained or failed to attain coverage targets for influenza in 2019, stratified by vaccination priority groups. In this ecological study, we compared predictors of reaching the goal of vaccination coverage for influenza, considering access, quality, and characteristics of the municipality. For all groups, the set of municipalities that reached the targets had greater PHC and Family Health Strategy coverage and a greater number of Community Health Agents per thousand inhabitants. They also carried out more active searches for children with delayed vaccination schedules, registered the vaccination of pregnant women on the same day, had unit opening hours that met user expectations, showed greater user satisfaction with the care received and had a higher percentage of the population with access to garbage collection. The variables may support decision-making about the organization of PHC services with the purpose of expanding vaccine coverage for influenza.

É observada a queda nos percentuais de cobertura vacinal no Brasil, num cenário de crescimento progressivo da cobertura da Atenção Primária à Saúde (APS), locus onde grande parte das ações de vacinação ocorre. Investigou-se as diferenças nos perfis de acesso e qualidade da APS entre municípios que atingiram ou não as metas de cobertura vacinal para influenza em 2019. Neste estudo ecológico, comparou-se variáveis potencialmente preditoras do alcance da meta de cobertura vacinal para influenza, considerando as dimensões de acesso, qualidade e características do município. Para todos os grupos, o conjunto de municípios que atingiu a cobertura preconizada tinha maiores coberturas de APS e de Estratégia de Saúde da Família e maior número de Agentes Comunitários de Saúde por mil habitantes. Também realizavam mais busca ativa de crianças com calendário vacinal atrasado, registravam a vacinação em dia das gestantes, o horário de funcionamento da unidade atendia às expectativas do usuário, havia maior satisfação do usuário com o cuidado recebido e maior percentual da população com acesso à coleta de lixo. As variáveis podem servir de apoio para a tomada de decisão quanto à organização dos serviços de APS na busca de ampliar as coberturas vacinais para influenza.

Elderly Mortality due to Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions and Primary Health Care Coverage in the Federal District.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the mortality coefficients of elderly due to primary care sensitive conditions, from 2008 to 2018, and determine its association with the coverage of the Primary Health Care (Family Health Strategy and Basic Care models) in the Federal District. METHODS: Ecological time series of mortality in Federal District elderly, from 2008 to 2018. The Poisson regression model was applied, considering as significant those with p<0.05, with a CI of 95%. RESULTS: There were 70,503 deaths. There was a decrease in the risk of death of elders due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Higher primary care coverage decreased the chance of death by sensitive conditions, both in Basic Care (OR: 0.994, CI: 0.990-0.998) and in the Family Health Strategy (OR: 0.997, CI: 0.995-0.999). CONCLUSIONS: Primary Care coverage was associated with a lower chance of death of the elderly due to Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions, especially in Basic Care.

Covid-19: temporal evolution and immunization in the three epidemiological waves, Brazil, 2020-2022.

OBJECTIVE: Describe the temporal evolution of morbimortality due to Covid-19 and vaccination coverage during the health emergency in Brazil. METHODS: Number of cases and deaths due to Covid-19 were extracted from the public panel of the Brazilian Ministry of Health, according to epidemiological week (EW) and geographic region. Data on vaccines and variants were obtained, respectively, from the Information System of the National Immunization Program and the Genomic Surveillance System of SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: Three peaks of deaths characterized the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic: in EW 30 of 2020, in the EW 14 of 2021 and in the EW six of 2022; three case waves, starting in the North and Northeast regions, with higher rates in the third wave, mainly in the South region. Vaccination started in the epidemiological week three of 2021, rapidly reaching most of the population, particularly in the Southeast and South regions, coinciding with a reduction exclusively in the mortality rate in the third wave. Only from the beginning of the second wave, when Gama was the dominant variant, 146,718 genomes were sequenced. From the last EW of 2021, with vaccination coverage already approaching 70%, the Omicron variant caused an avalanche of cases, but with fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: We noticed the presence of three waves of Covid-19, as well as the effect of immunization on the reduction of mortality in the second and third waves, attributed to the Delta and Omicron variants, respectively. However, the reduction of morbidity, which peaked in the third wave during the domination of the Omicron variant, remained the same. The national and centralized command of the pandemic confrontation did not occur; thus, public administrators took the lead in their territories. The overwhelming effect of the pandemic could have been minimized, if there had been a coordinated participation of three spheres of the Brazilian Unified Health System administration, in the joint governance of the pandemic fight.

Performance evaluation of tuberculosis control in Brazilian municipalities.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of tuberculosis control in Brazilian municipalities. METHODS: This is an ecological study on Brazilian municipalities that notified at least four new cases of tuberculosis, with a minimum of one new case of pulmonary tuberculosis between 2015 and 2018. The municipalities were stratified according to the population in < 50 thousand, 50-100 thousand, 100-300 thousand, and > 300 thousand inhabitants, and the k-means method was used to group them within each population range according to the performance of six indicators of the disease. RESULTS: A total of 2,845 Brazilian municipalities were included, comprising 98.5% (208,007/211,174) of new tuberculosis cases in the period. For each population range, three groups (A, B, and C) of municipalities were identified according to the performance of the indicators: A, the most satisfactory; B, the intermediates; and C, the least satisfactory. Municipalities in group A with < 100 thousand inhabitants presented results above the targets for laboratory confirmation (≥ 72%), abandonment (≤ 5%), and cure (≥ 90%), and comprised 2% of new cases of the disease. Conversely, municipalities of groups B and C presented at least five indicators with results below the targets - HIV testing (< 100%), contact investigation (< 90%), directly observed therapy (< 90%), abandonment (> 5%), and cure (< 90%) -, and corresponded to 66.7% of new cases of tuberculosis. In group C of municipalities with > 300 thousand inhabitants, which included 19 of the 27 capitals and 43.1% of new cases of tuberculosis, the lowest percentages of contact investigation (mean = 56.4%) and directly observed therapy (mean = 15.4%) were verified, in addition to high abandonment (mean = 13.9%) and low coverage of primary health care (mean = 66.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Most new cases of tuberculosis occurred in municipalities with unsatisfactory performance for disease control. Expanding the coverage of primary health care in these places can reduce abandonment and increase the contact investigation and directly observed therapy.

[Social vulnerability, survival, and hospital lethality by COVID-19 in patients aged 50 years and over: retrospective cohort of cases in Brazil in 2020 and 2021]. / Vulnerabilidade social, sobrevida e letalidade hospitalar pela COVID-19 em pacientes com 50 anos ou mais: coorte retrospectiva de casos no Brasil em 2020 e 2021.

The outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection is not only associated with age and comorbidities but is also aggravated by social vulnerability. This study aims to analyze - according to social vulnerability - survival and hospital lethality by COVID-19 in the first 100 days from symptoms to death in individuals aged 50 years or older hospitalized in Brazil. This is a retrospective cohort from Epidemiological Week 11 of 2020 to week 33 of 2021. The Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System (SIVEP-Gripe) provided clinical and epidemiological data. The Geographic Index of the Socioeconomic Context for Health and Social Studies (GeoSES) measured social vulnerability. The Kaplan-Meier curve and the adjusted proportional risk model by Cox were used for survival, with hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Among the 410,504 cases, overall lethality was of 42.2% in general and 51.4% in the most vulnerable. We found a higher lethality according to worse socioeconomic status in all categories by age group; the double is registered for 50-59 years. The adjusted Cox model showed a 32% increase in risk of death (HR = 1.32; 95%CI: 1.24-1.42). Moreover, men, older adults, black or indigenous adults, with multiple comorbidities, and subjected to invasive ventilation, have a higher risk of death after hospitalization. Intersectoral policy measures need to be targeted to alleviate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic aggravated by social vulnerability.

O desfecho da infecção pelo SARS-CoV-2 não se associa apenas à idade e a comorbidades, mas também agrava-se por vulnerabilidade social. Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar, segundo vulnerabilidade social, a sobrevida e a letalidade hospitalar por COVID-19 para os primeiros 100 dias entre sintomas até o óbito em indivíduos de 50 anos ou mais hospitalizados no Brasil. Trata-se de uma coorte retrospectiva das Semanas Epidemiológicas 11, de 2020, a 33, de 2021. O Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe (SIVEP-Gripe) forneceu dados clínico-epidemiológicos. O Índice Socioeconômico do Contexto Geográfico para Estudos em Saúde (GeoSES) mensurou vulnerabilidade social. Para sobrevida, utilizou-se a curva de Kaplan-Meier e o modelo ajustado de riscos proporcionais de Cox, com hazard ratio (HR) e intervalos de 95% de confiança (IC95%). Dentre os 410.504 casos, a letalidade geral foi de 42,2%, sendo 51,4% os indivíduos mais vulneráveis. Por faixa etária, registra-se a presença de maior letalidade para os piores status socioeconômicos em todas as categorias; para 50-59 anos, registra-se o dobro. O modelo ajustado de Cox mostrou aumento de 32% de risco para óbito (HR = 1,32; IC95%: 1,24-1,42). Ademais, homens, idosos, pretos ou indígenas, com múltiplas comorbidades e submetidos à ventilação invasiva apresentam maior risco de óbito após hospitalização. É necessário que medidas políticas intersetoriais sejam direcionadas para mitigar os efeitos da pandemia de COVID-19 agravados pela vulnerabilidade social.

El pronóstico de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 no sólo está asociado a la edad y a las comorbilidades, sino que también empeora por la vulnerabilidad social. El presente estudio tiene como objetivo analizar, según la vulnerabilidad social, la supervivencia y la letalidad hospitalaria por COVID-19 durante los primeros 100 días entre los síntomas hasta la muerte en individuos de 50 años o más hospitalizados en Brasil. Se trata de una cohorte retrospectiva desde la Semana Epidemiológica 11 de 2020 hasta la 33 de 2021. El Sistema de Información de Vigilancia Epidemiológica de la Gripe (SIVEP-Gripe) proporcionó datos clínico-epidemiológicos. El Índice Socioeconómico del Contexto Geográfico para los Estudios de Salud (GeoSES) midió la vulnerabilidad social. Para la supervivencia se utilizó la curva de Kaplan-Meier y el modelo ajustado de riesgos proporcionales de Cox, con cociente de riesgos (hazard ratio - HR) e intervalos del 95% de confianza (IC95%). Entre los 410.504 casos la letalidad global fue del 42,2%; el 51,4% en los más vulnerables. Por grupos de edad, se registra la presencia de una mayor letalidad a medida que empeora el estatus socioeconómico en todas las categorías; para 50-59 años es el doble. El modelo de Cox ajustado mostró un aumento del 32% en el riesgo de muerte (HR = 1,32; IC95%: 1,24-1,42). Además, los hombres de edad avanzada, de raza negra o indígena, con múltiples comorbilidades y sometidos a ventilación invasiva tienen un mayor riesgo de muerte tras la hospitalización. Es necesario que las medidas políticas intersectoriales se dirijan a mitigar los efectos de la pandemia de COVID-19 agravada por la vulnerabilidad social.

[Factors associated with timing of lepra reactions in a cohort from 2008 to 2016 in Rondônia, Amazon Region, Brazil]. / Fatores associados ao tempo de ocorrência das reações hansênicas numa coorte de 2008 a 2016 em Rondônia, Região Amazônica, Brasil.

The clinical management of leprosy patients poses a specific challenge, namely lepra reactions. This non-concurrent cohort study aimed to analyze the timing of the first lepra reaction during and after polychemotherapy (PCT) and associated factors. A total of 1,621 patients were assessed (PB = 8.9% and MB = 91.1%) from 2008 to 2016, reported to the System of Reaction States in Leprosy (SisReação/RO) database. Reactions occurred predominantly during PCT (997; 61.5%) and less frequently only after PCT (624; 38.5%). Earliness of the reaction after diagnosis was analyzed with Kaplan-Meier survival curves, with comparison between the PB and MB groups using the Mantel-Cox log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were constructed to identify factors associated with occurrence of lepra reactions (hazard ratio) and the corresponding 95%CI. The multivariate model included variables with p-values < 0.20 in the univariate analysis. PB patients developed reactions earlier than MB patients. Other characteristics were associated with earlier reactions: female gender and negative smear microscopy. In the aggregate period (during and after PCT), PB presented 24% higher risk of lepra reaction than MB patients, and negative smear microscopy increased this risk by 40% compared to positive smear microscopy. During and after PCT, PB presented 1.3 and 1.6 times the risk, respectively, of reactions when compared to MB patients. We thus recommend prioritizing surveillance of lepra reactions during and after PCT as measures to prevent physical disabilities and to improve quality of life for persons with leprosy.

O manejo clínico de pacientes com hanseníase apresenta um desafio particular que são as reações. O objetivo deste estudo de coorte não concorrente foi analisar o tempo e fatores associados à ocorrência da primeira reação durante e após o tratamento da poliquimioterapia (PQT). Avaliou-se 1.621 pacientes paucibacilares (PB = 8,9%) e multibacilares (MB = 91,1%) de 2008 a 2016 notificados no Sistema de Estados Reacionais em Hanseníase/Rondônia (SisReação/RO). Prevaleceu a ocorrência durante o tratamento da PQT = 997 (61,5%), e 624 (38,5%) somente após o PQT. A precocidade da reação, a partir do diagnóstico, foi analisada por meio de curvas de sobrevida de Kaplan-Meier e comparadas entre os grupos PB e MB, usando o teste de log-rank de Mantel-Cox; e foram construídos modelos de regressão de Cox univariada e multivariada para identificar os fatores associados à ocorrência da reação (hazard ratio) e os correspondentes IC95%. No modelo multivariado foram incluídas variáveis com valores de p < 0,2 na análise univariada. Os PB desenvolveram reação de forma mais precoce do que os MB. Outras características associaram-se à reação em menor tempo: sexo feminino e baciloscopia negativa. No período agregado (durante e após a PQT), os pacientes PB apresentaram risco 24% maior de reação do que os MB e aqueles com baciloscopia negativa aumentaram este risco em 40% comparado à baciloscopia positiva. Durante e após a PQT, os PB apresentaram 1,3 e 1,6 vezes maior risco de ocorrência da reação dos pacientes MB. Dessa forma, recomendamos priorizar ações de vigilância para reações hansênicas durante e após a PQT como medidas de prevenção de incapacidades físicas e de melhoria na qualidade de vida das pessoas acometidas pela hanseníase.

La gestión clínica de pacientes con hanseniasis presenta un desafío particular que son las reacciones. El objetivo de este estudio de cohorte no concurrente fue analizar el tiempo y factores asociados a la ocurrencia de la primera reacción durante y tras el tratamiento de la poliquimioterapia (PQT). Se evaluó a 1621 pacientes (PB = 8,9% y MB = 91,1%) de 2008 a 2016, notificados en el Sistema de Estados Reaccionarios en Lepra (SisReação/RO). Prevaleció la ocurrencia durante la PQT = 997 (61,5%), y 624 (38,5%) solamente tras la PQT. La precocidad de la reacción a partir del diagnóstico se analizó mediante curvas de supervivencia de Kaplan-Meier y se compararon entre los grupos PB y MB, usando el test de log-rank de Mantel-Cox; asimismo, se construyeron modelos de regresión univariada y multivariada de Cox para identificar los factores asociados con la ocurrencia de la reacción (cociente de riesgos) y los correspondientes IC95%. En el modelo multivariado se incluyeron las variables con valores de p < 0,2 en el análisis univariado. Los PB desarrollaron una reacción de forma más precoz que los MB. Otras características se asociaron a la reacción en menor tiempo: sexo femenino y baciloscopia negativa. En el período agregado (durante y tras PQT), los PB presentaron un riesgo un 24% mayor de reacción que los multibacilares y la baciloscopia negativa aumentó este riesgo en un 40%, comparado con la baciloscopia positiva. Durante y tras el tratamiento PQT, los PB presentaron 1,3 y 1,6 veces el riesgo de ocurrencia de la reacción de los pacientes MB. De esa forma, recomendamos priorizar acciones de vigilancia para reacciones hansénicas durante y tras PQT, como medidas de prevención de discapacidades físicas, así como de mejoría en la calidad de vida de personas afectadas por la hanseniasis.

Trends in COVID-19 case-fatality rates in Brazilian public hospitals: A longitudinal cohort of 398,063 hospital admissions from 1st March to 3rd October 2020.

BACKGROUND: Almost 200,000 deaths from COVID-19 were reported in Brazil in 2020. The case fatality rate of a new infectious disease can vary by different risk factors and over time. We analysed the trends and associated factors of COVID-19 case fatality rates in Brazilian public hospital admissions during the first wave of the pandemic. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of all COVID-19-related admissions between epidemiological weeks 10-40 in the Brazilian Public Health System (SUS) was delimited from available reimbursement records. Smoothing time series and survival analyses were conducted to evaluate the trends of hospital case fatality rates (CFR) and the probability of death according to factors such as sex, age, ethnicity, comorbidities, length of stay and ICU use. RESULTS: With 398,063 admissions and 86,452 (21.7%) deaths, the overall age-standardized hospital CFR trend decreased throughout the period, varying from 31.8% (95%CI: 31.2 to 32.5%) in week 10 to 18.2% (95%CI: 17.6 to 18.8%) in week 40. This decreasing trend was observed in all sex, age, ethnic groups, length of stay and ICU admissions. Consistently, later admission (from July to September) was an independent protective factor. Patients 80+ year old had a hazard ratio of 8.18 (95% CI: 7.51 to 8.91). Ethnicity, comorbidities, and ICU need were also associated with the death risk. Although also decreasing, the CFR was always around 40-50% in people who needed an ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS: The overall hospital CFR of COVID-19 has decreased in Brazilian public hospitals during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020. Nevertheless, during the entire period, the CFR was still very high, suggesting the need for improving COVID-19 hospital care in Brazil.

COVID-19 as the leading cause of hospital deaths in the Brazilian public health system in 2020.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the profile of hospital deaths in Brazil according to cause of admission during the pre-pandemic (2019) and pandemic periods (2020). METHODS: Descriptive study based on individual-level records of all hospital admissions with death outcomes reimbursed by the Brazilian National Health System in 2019 and 2020. RESULTS: The number of hospital deaths increased by 16.7% in 2020 compared with 2019 (522,686 vs 609,755). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was associated with 19.5% (118,879) of all hospital deaths in 2020, surpassing diseases of the circulatory system (15.4%, 93,735) and diseases of the respiratory system (14.9%, 91,035). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 was the main cause of death in public hospitals in Brazil in 2020.

Epidemiological characteristics and temporal trends of new leprosy cases in Brazil: 2006 to 2017.

Our study aims to describe trends in new case detection rate (NCDR) of leprosy in Brazil from 2006 to 2017 overall and in subgroups, and to analyze the evolution of clinical and treatment characteristics of patients, with emphasis on cases diagnosed with grade 2 physical disabilities. We conducted a descriptive study to analyze new cases of leprosy registered in the Brazilian Information System for Notificable Diseases (SINAN), from 2006-2017. We calculated the leprosy NCDR per 100,000 inhabitants (overall and for individuals aged < 15 and ≥ 15 years) by sex, age, race/ethnicity, urban/rural areas, and Brazilian regions, and estimated the trends using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. We analyzed the distributions of cases according to relevant clinical characteristics over time. In Brazil, there was a sharp decrease in the overall NCDR from 23.4/100,000 in 2006 to 10.3/100,000 in 2017; among children < 15 years, from 6.94 to 3.20/100,000. The decline was consistent in all Brazilian regions and race/ethnicity categories. By 2017, 70.2% of the cases were multibacillary, 30.5% had grade 1 (G1D) or 2 (G2D) physical disabilities at diagnosis and 42.8% were not evaluated at treatment completion/discharge; cases with G2D at diagnosis were mostly detected in urban areas (80%) and 5% of cases died during the treatment (leprosy or other causes). Although the frequency of leprosy NCDR decreased in Brazil from 2006 to 2017 across all evaluated population groups, the large number of cases with multibacillary leprosy, physical disabilities or without adequate evaluation, and among children suggest the need to reinforce timely diagnosis and treatment to control leprosy in Brazil.

Evaluation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) surveillance system, with emphasis on influenza, Brazil, 2014-2016. / Avaliação do sistema de vigilância da síndrome respiratória aguda grave (SRAG) com ênfase em influenza, no Brasil, 2014 a 2016.

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate attributes of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) surveillance system in Brazil, 2014-2016. METHOD: this was an evaluation study conducted according to United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines. Data from the Influenza Web information system notified for the period 2014-2016 were used. The simplicity, completeness, inconsistency, timeliness, acceptability, representativeness, positive predictive value (PPV) of the SARS case definition attributes and usefulness were evaluated. RESULTS: a simple structure was found with good completeness (100% for required variables; >95% for optional variables); low inconsistency (3.2%); lack of timeliness (68.2%); low acceptability (average of 70.4%); representative of the territory (capable of analyzing risk groups); high PPV (29.1%); useful (fulfils system objectives). CONCLUSION: the attributes evaluated indicate that the system is capable of providing complete, representative and useful information about influenza, adequate for guiding national health responses.

Imputation method to reduce undetected severe acute respiratory infection cases during the coronavirus disease outbreak in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus disease (COVD-19) outbreak has overburdened the surveillance of severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs), including the laboratory network. This study was aimed at correcting the absence of laboratory results of reported SARI deaths. METHODS: The imputation method was applied for SARI deaths without laboratory information using clinico-epidemiological characteristics. RESULTS: Of 84,449 SARI deaths, 51% were confirmed with COVID-19 while 3% with other viral respiratory diseases. After the imputation method, 95% of deaths were reclassified as COVID-19 while 5% as other viral respiratory diseases. CONCLUSIONS: The imputation method was a useful and robust solution (sensitivity and positive predictive value of 98%) for missing values through clinical & epidemiological characteristics.

Medicinal plants and people with tuberculosis: description of care practices in Northern Bahia, 2017. / Plantas medicinais e pessoas com tuberculose: descrição de práticas de cuidado no norte da Bahia, 2017.

OBJECTIVE: To describe medicinal plants used by people with tuberculosis (TB) in municipalities in Northern Bahia, in 2017. METHODS: A descriptive study was carried out with primary data on medicinal plants used by people with TB ≥18 years old, presented according to botanical nomenclature and frequency of consumption. RESULTS: Of the 80 people interviewed, 50 reported consuming some kind of medicinal plant; these were mainly male (34), ≥47 years old (22), of brown/black skin color (34), with up to complete primary education (25), married (26), not economically active (30), earning up to BRL 300/month (26), with coughs (33) and with no previous history of TB (44). Two species stood out in the citations, Chenopodium ambrosioides L. (worm-seed: 23 citations), and Solanum capsicoides All. (cockroach berry: 17 citations). CONCLUSION: There was widespread use of medicinal plants as a TB care practice in six municipalities in Northern Bahia.