External validation and clinical usefulness of first-trimester prediction models for small- and large-for-gestational-age infants: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the external validity of all published first-trimester prediction models based on routinely collected maternal predictors for the risk of small- and large-for-gestational-age (SGA and LGA) infants. Furthermore, the clinical potential of the best-performing models was evaluated. DESIGN: Multicentre prospective cohort. SETTING: Thirty-six midwifery practices and six hospitals (in the Netherlands). POPULATION: Pregnant women were recruited at <16 weeks of gestation between 1 July 2013 and 31 December 2015. METHODS: Prediction models were systematically selected from the literature. Information on predictors was obtained by a web-based questionnaire. Birthweight centiles were corrected for gestational age, parity, fetal sex, and ethnicity. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predictive performance was assessed by means of discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration. RESULTS: The validation cohort consisted of 2582 pregnant women. The outcomes of SGA <10th percentile and LGA >90th percentile occurred in 203 and 224 women, respectively. The C-statistics of the included models ranged from 0.52 to 0.64 for SGA (n = 6), and from 0.60 to 0.69 for LGA (n = 6). All models yielded higher C-statistics for more severe cases of SGA (<5th percentile) and LGA (>95th percentile). Initial calibration showed poor-to-moderate agreement between the predicted probabilities and the observed outcomes, but this improved substantially after recalibration. CONCLUSION: The clinical relevance of the models is limited because of their moderate predictive performance, and because the definitions of SGA and LGA do not exclude constitutionally small or large infants. As most clinically relevant fetal growth deviations are related to 'vascular' or 'metabolic' factors, models predicting hypertensive disorders and gestational diabetes are likely to be more specific. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: The clinical relevance of prediction models for the risk of small- and large-for-gestational-age is limited.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes in women with severe early onset pre-eclampsia before 26 weeks of gestation, a case series.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the maternal and neonatal outcomes and prolongation of pregnancies with severe early onset pre-eclampsia before 26 weeks of gestation. DESIGN: Nationwide case series. SETTING: All Dutch tertiary perinatal care centres. POPULATION: All women diagnosed with severe pre-eclampsia who delivered between 22 and 26 weeks of gestation in a tertiary perinatal care centre in the Netherlands, between 2008 and 2014. METHODS: Women were identified through computerised hospital databases. Data were collected from medical records. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Maternal complications [HELLP (haemolysis, elevated liver enzyme levels, and low platelet levels) syndrome, eclampsia, pulmonary oedema, cerebrovascular incidents, hepatic capsular rupture, placenta abruption, renal failure, and maternal death], neonatal survival and complications (intraventricular haemorrhage, retinopathy of prematurity, necrotising enterocolitis, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, and sepsis), and outcome of subsequent pregnancies (recurrent pre-eclampsia, premature delivery, and neonatal survival). RESULTS: We studied 133 women, delivering 140 children. Maternal complications occurred frequently (54%). Deterioration of HELLP syndrome during expectant care occurred in 48%, after 4 days. Median prolongation was 5 days (range: 0-25 days). Neonatal survival was poor (19%), and was worse (6.6%) if the mother was admitted before 24 weeks of gestation. Complications occurred frequently among survivors (84%). After active support, neonatal survival was comparable with the survival of spontaneous premature neonates (54%). Pre-eclampsia recurred in 31%, at a mean gestational age of 32 weeks and 6 days. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the limits of prolongation, women need to be counselled carefully, weighing the high risk for maternal complications versus limited neonatal survival and/or extreme prematurity and its sequelae. The positive prospects regarding maternal and neonatal outcome in future pregnancies can supplement counselling. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Severe early onset pre-eclampsia comes with high maternal complication rates and poor neonatal survival.

An economic analysis of immediate delivery and expectant monitoring in women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, between 34 and 37 weeks of gestation (HYPITAT-II).

OBJECTIVE: To assess the economic consequences of immediate delivery compared with expectant monitoring in women with preterm non-severe hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. DESIGN: A cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial (HYPITAT-II). SETTING: Obstetric departments of seven academic hospitals and 44 non-academic hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: Women diagnosed with non-severe hypertensive disorders of pregnancy between 340/7 and 370/7  weeks of gestation, randomly allocated to either immediate delivery or expectant monitoring. METHODS: A trial-based cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a healthcare perspective until final maternal and neonatal discharge. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Health outcomes were expressed as the prevalence of respiratory distress syndrome, defined as the need for supplemental oxygen for >24 hours combined with radiographic findings typical for respiratory distress syndrome. Costs were estimated from a healthcare perspective until maternal and neonatal discharge. RESULTS: The average costs of immediate delivery (n = 352) were €10 245 versus €9563 for expectant monitoring (n = 351), with an average difference of €682 (95% confidence interval, 95% CI -€618 to €2126). This 7% difference predominantly originated from the neonatal admissions, which were €5672 in the immediate delivery arm and €3929 in the expectant monitoring arm. CONCLUSION: In women with mild hypertensive disorders between 340/7 and 370/7  weeks of gestation, immediate delivery is more costly than expectant monitoring as a result of differences in neonatal admissions. These findings support expectant monitoring, as the clinical outcomes of the trial demonstrated that expectant monitoring reduced respiratory distress syndrome for a slightly increased risk of maternal complications. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Expectant management in preterm hypertensive disorders is less costly compared with immediate delivery.

Maintenance tocolysis with nifedipine in threatened preterm labour: 2-year follow up of the offspring in the APOSTEL II trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate long-term effects of maintenance tocolysis with nifedipine on neurodevelopmental outcome of the infant. DESIGN, SETTING AND POPULATION: Follow up of infants of women who participated in a multicentre randomised controlled trial on maintenance tocolysis with nifedipine versus placebo. METHODS: Two years after the APOSTEL II trial on maintenance tocolysis with nifedipine versus placebo, we asked participants to complete the Ages and Stages Questionnaire. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Infant development was measured in five domains. Developmental delay was defined as a score of ≤1 SD in one or more developmental domains. We performed exploratory subgroup analysis in women with preterm prolonged rupture of the membranes, and in women with a cervical length <10 mm at study entry. RESULTS: Of the 276 women eligible for follow up, 135 (52.5%) returned the questionnaire, encompassing data of 170 infants. At 2 years of age, infants of women with nifedipine maintenance tocolysis compared with placebo had a higher overall incidence of fine motor problems (22.2 versus 7.6%, OR 3.43, 95% CI 1.29-9.14, P = 0.01), and a lower incidence of poor problem-solving (21.1 versus 29.1%, OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.08-0.95, P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: This follow-up study revealed no clear benefit of nifedipine maintenance tocolysis at 2 years of age. As short-term adverse perinatal outcome was not reduced in the original APOSTEL II trial, we conclude that maintenance tocolysis does not appear to be beneficial at this time. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: No clear benefit of nifedipine maintenance tocolysis in preterm labour on 2-year infant outcome.

Quantitative fetal fibronectin testing in combination with cervical length measurement in the prediction of spontaneous preterm delivery in symptomatic women.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether in symptomatic women, the combination of quantitative fetal fibronectin (fFN) testing and cervical length (CL) improves the prediction of preterm delivery (PTD) within 7 days compared with qualitative fFN and CL. DESIGN: Post hoc analysis of frozen fFN samples of a nationwide cohort study. SETTING: Ten perinatal centres in the Netherlands. POPULATION: Symptomatic women between 24 and 34 weeks of gestation. METHODS: The risk of PTD <7 days was estimated in predefined CL and fFN strata. We used logistic regression to develop a model including quantitative fFN and CL, and one including qualitative fFN (threshold 50 ng/ml) and CL. We compared the models' capacity to identify women at low risk (<5%) for delivery within 7 days using a reclassification table. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Spontaneous delivery within 7 days after study entry. RESULTS: We studied 350 women, of whom 69 (20%) delivered within 7 days. The risk of PTD in <7 days ranged from 2% in the lowest fFN group (<10 ng/ml) to 71% in the highest group (>500 ng/ml). Multivariable logistic regression showed an increasing risk of PTD in <7 days with rising fFN concentration [10-49 ng/ml: odds ratio (OR) 1.3, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.23-7.0; 50-199 ng/ml: OR 3.2, 95% CI 0.79-13; 200-499 ng/ml: OR 9.0, 95% CI 2.3-35; >500 ng/ml: OR 39, 95% CI 9.4-164] and shortening of the CL (OR 0.86 per mm, 95% CI 0.82-0.90). Use of quantitative fFN instead of qualitative fFN resulted in reclassification of 18 (5%) women from high to low risk, of whom one (6%) woman delivered within 7 days. CONCLUSION: In symptomatic women, quantitative fFN testing does not improve the prediction of PTD within 7 days compared with qualitative fFN testing in combination with CL measurement in terms of reclassification from high to low (<5%) risk, but it adds value across the risk range. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Quantitative fFN testing adds value to qualitative fFN testing with CL measurement in the prediction of PTD.