Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods.

Flooding affects more people than any other environmental hazard and hinders sustainable development1,2. Investing in flood adaptation strategies may reduce the loss of life and livelihood caused by floods3. Where and how floods occur and who is exposed are changing as a result of rapid urbanization4, flood mitigation infrastructure5 and increasing settlements in floodplains6. Previous estimates of the global flood-exposed population have been limited by a lack of observational data, relying instead on models, which have high uncertainty3,7-11. Here we use daily satellite imagery at 250-metre resolution to estimate flood extent and population exposure for 913 large flood events from 2000 to 2018. We determine a total inundation area of 2.23 million square kilometres, with 255-290 million people directly affected by floods. We estimate that the total population in locations with satellite-observed inundation grew by 58-86 million from 2000 to 2015. This represents an increase of 20 to 24 per cent in the proportion of the global population exposed to floods, ten times higher than previous estimates7. Climate change projections for 2030 indicate that the proportion of the population exposed to floods will increase further. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the satellite observations will improve our understanding of where floods are changing and how best to adapt. The global flood database generated from these observations will help to improve vulnerability assessments, the accuracy of global and local flood models, the efficacy of adaptation interventions and our understanding of the interactions between landcover change, climate and floods.

Monitoring and Modeling the Rapid Evolution of Earth's Newest Volcanic Island: Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai (Tonga) Using High Spatial Resolution Satellite Observations.

We have monitored a newly erupted volcanic island in the Kingdom of Tonga, unofficially known as Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai, by means of relatively frequent high spatial resolution (~50 cm) satellite observations. The new ~1.8 km2 island formed as a tuff cone over the course of a month-long hydromagmatic eruption in early 2015 in the Tonga-Kermadec volcanic arc. Such ash-dominated eruptions usually produce fragile subaerial landscapes that wash away rapidly due to marine erosion, as occurred nearby in 2009. Our measured rates of erosion are ~0.00256 km3/year from derived digital topographic models. Preliminary measurements of the topographic expression of the primary tuff cone over ~30 months suggest a lifetime of ~19 years (and potentially up to 42 years). The ability to measure details of a young island's landscape evolution using satellite remote sensing has not previously been possible at these spatial and temporal resolutions.

Public Health Data Applications Using the CDC Tracking Network: Augmenting Environmental Hazard Information With Lower-Latency NASA Data.

Exposure to environmental hazards is an important determinant of health, and the frequency and severity of exposures is expected to be impacted by climate change. Through a partnership with the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network is integrating timely observations and model data of priority environmental hazards into its publicly accessible Data Explorer (https://ephtracking.cdc.gov/DataExplorer/). Newly integrated data sets over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) include: daily 5-day forecasts of air quality based on the Goddard Earth Observing System Composition Forecast, daily historical (1980-present) concentrations of speciated PM2.5 based on the modern era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily near real-time maps of flooding (MCDWD). Data integrated into the CDC Tracking Network are broadly intended to improve community health through action by informing both research and early warning activities, including (a) describing temporal and spatial trends in disease and potential environmental exposures, (b) identifying populations most affected, (c) generating hypotheses about associations between health and environmental exposures, and (d) developing, guiding, and assessing environmental public health policies and interventions aimed at reducing or eliminating health outcomes associated with environmental factors.

A locus on chromosome 2 influences the development of acute graft-versus-host disease in a murine model.

Despite contemporary typing procedures for bone marrow transplantation (BMT), graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) continues to be a major complication of transplants performed between MHC-matched donors and recipients. Although GVHD can be alleviated by T cell depletion, this procedure increases the risk of graft failure and leukemic relapse and therefore is not a solution to the GVHD problem. The high degree of variation in the intensity of GVHD observed in different patients suggests that multiple non-MHC genetic factors influence GVHD severity. We hypothesize that, in addition to minor histocompatibility antigen disparities, polymorphisms in genes encoding immunologic effector molecules may be important factors influencing GVHD development. This study aims to explore this hypothesis by identifying non-MHC genes that influence the outcome of BMT in a murine model. In this model, B10.D2 donor leukocytes cause acute GVHD in (C57BL/6xDBA/2)F1 (B6D2F1) recipients, whereas DBA/2 donor leukocytes do not. To date, a locus on chromosome 1 has been identified as influencing the severity of GVHD in this model. Our current study shows that a locus on chromosome 2 acts independently of the chromosome 1 locus to also influence GVHD severity in this model. The region of chromosome 2 implicated in our study contains genes encoding beta2-microglobulin, the minor histocompatibility antigen H-3 and the pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-1.

Genetic factors influencing the development of chronic graft-versus-host disease in a murine model.

Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a major complication of bone marrow transplantation that can occur in either acute or chronic forms. Much of the long-term pathology seen in chronic GVHD is a result of autoantibody production. In the DBA/2-->B6D2F1 murine model of chronic GVHD, anti-ssDNA autoantibodies can be detected by 14 days post cell transfer. These autoantibodies are not observed in B6D2F1 recipients of cells from C57BL/6 or B10.D2 donors, which develop acute rather than chronic GVHD. Therefore, in this model, donor genetic factors predispose to the development of chronic GVHD in recipients. We performed a genetic analysis aimed at mapping donor loci that influence the magnitude of early autoantibody production in B6D2F1 recipients of cells from DBA/2 donor mice. Linkage analysis suggested an influence of two loci: a locus on chromosome 11 linked to D11Mit278 and a locus on chromosome 4 linked to D4Mit226. The locus on chromosome 11 also appeared to influence the development of renal pathology associated with chronic GVHD.

Genetics of graft-versus-host disease, I. A locus on chromosome 1 influences development of acute graft-versus-host disease in a major histocompatibility complex mismatched murine model.

Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is the major complication occurring after bone marrow transplantation. The severity of GVHD varies widely, with this variation generally being attributed to variation in the degree of disparity between host and donor for minor histocompatibility antigens. However, it is also possible that other forms of polymorphism, such as polymorphisms in immune effector molecules, might play a significant role in determining GVHD severity. In order to investigate this hypothesis, we are studying the genetic factors that influence GVHD development in a murine model. We here report the first results of this analysis, which demonstrate that a locus on Chromosome 1 of the mouse, and possibly also a locus on Chromosome 4, exert considerable influence over the development of one aspect of acute GVHD - splenomegaly - in a parent-->F1 murine model. These results demonstrate that non-MHC genes can exert quite significant effects on the development of GVHD-associated pathology and that gene mapping can be used as a tool to identify these loci. Further analysis of such loci will allow identification of the mechanism whereby they influence GVHD and may lead in the future to improved selection of donors for human bone marrow transplantation.

A locus closely linked to Mtv7 on mouse chromosome 1 influences development of acute versus chronic graft-versus-host disease in a murine model.

The relationship between acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is not well understood. A murine model of acute and chronic GVHD is the B6D2F1 parent-->F1 model in which transfer of C57BL/6 parental strain lymphoid cells to B6D2F1 recipients results in development of Th1-mediated acute GVHD, whereas transfer of DBA/2 parental strain lymphoid cells to B6D2F1 recipients results in development of Th2-mediated chronic GVHD. Numerous studies have investigated the reason for the differential development of acute versus chronic GVHD in this model but have as yet failed to identify the factor that determines which type of T helper cell will predominate and thereby which type of GVHD will develop. In this report, we demonstrate, using congenic strains of mice, that a locus in the vicinity of the Mtv7 locus on Chromosome 1 of the mouse significantly influences development of acute versus chronic GVHD in the B6D2F1 model.

Higher northern latitude normalized difference vegetation index and growing season trends from 1982 to 1999.

Normalized difference vegetation index data from the polar-orbiting National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorological satellites from 1982 to 1999 show significant variations in photosynthetic activity and growing season length at latitudes above 35 degrees N. Two distinct periods of increasing plant growth are apparent: 1982-1991 and 1992-1999, separated by a reduction from 1991 to 1992 associated with global cooling resulting from the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in June 1991. The average May to September normalized difference vegetation index from 45 degrees N to 75 degrees N increased by 9% from 1982 to 1991, decreased by 5% from 1991 to 1992, and increased by 8% from 1992 to 1999. Variations in the normalized difference vegetation index were associated with variations in the start of the growing season of -5.6, +3.9, and -1.7 days respectively, for the three time periods. Our results support surface temperature increases within the same period at higher northern latitudes where temperature limits plant growth.