Age as a predictor of sentinel node metastasis among patients with localized melanoma: an inverse correlation of melanoma mortality and incidence of sentinel node metastasis among young and old patients.

PURPOSE: We have previously reported that older patients with clinical stage I and II primary cutaneous. Melanoma had lower survival rates compared to younger patients. We postulated that the incidence of nodal metastasis would therefore be higher among older melanoma patients. METHODS: The expanded American Joint Committee on Cancer melanoma staging database contains a cohort of 7,756 melanoma patients who presented without clinical evidence of regional lymph node or distant metastasis and who underwent a sentinel node biopsy procedure as a component of their staging assessment. RESULTS: Although older patients had primary melanoma features associated with more aggressive biology, we paradoxically observed a significant decrease in the incidence of sentinel node metastasis as patient age increased. Overall, the highest incidence of sentinel node metastasis was 25.8 % in patients under 20 years of age, compared to 15.5 % in patients 80 years and older (p < 0.001). In contrast, 5-year mortality rates for clinical stage II patients ranged from a low of 20 % for those 20-40 years of age up to 38 % for those over 70 years of age. Patient age was an independent predictor of sentinel node metastasis in a multifactorial analysis (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with clinical stage I and II melanoma under 20 years of age had a higher incidence of sentinel lymph node metastasis but, paradoxically, a more favorable survival outcome compared to all other age groups. In contrast, patients >70 years had the most aggressive primary melanoma features and a higher mortality rate compared to all other age groups but a lower incidence of sentinel lymph node metastasis.

Age as a prognostic factor in patients with localized melanoma and regional metastases.

BACKGROUND: We postulated that the worse prognosis of melanoma with advancing age reflected more aggressive tumor biology and that in younger patients the prognosis would be more favorable. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The expanded AJCC melanoma staging database contained 11,088 patients with complete data for analysis, including mitotic rate. RESULTS: With increasing age by decade, primary melanomas were thicker, exhibited higher mitotic rates, and were more likely to be ulcerated. In a multivariate analysis of patients with localized melanoma, thickness and ulceration were highly significant predictors of outcome at all decades of life (except for patients younger than 20 years). Mitotic rate was significantly predictive in all age groups except patients <20 and >80 years. For patients with stage III melanoma, there were four independent variables associated with patient survival: number of nodal metastases, patient age, ulceration, and mitotic rate. Patients younger than 20 years of age had primary tumors with slightly more aggressive features, a higher incidence of sentinel lymph node metastasis, but, paradoxically, more favorable survival than all other age groups. In contrast, patients >70 years old had primary melanomas with the most aggressive prognostic features, were more likely to be head and neck primaries, and were associated with a higher mortality rate than the other age groups. Surprisingly, however, these patients had a lower rate of sentinel lymph node metastasis per T stage. Among patients between the two age extremes, clinicopathologic features and survival tended to be more homogeneous. CONCLUSIONS: Melanomas in patients at the extremes of age have a distinct natural history.

Factors predictive of the status of sentinel lymph nodes in melanoma patients from a large multicenter database.

BACKGROUND: Numerous predictive factors for cutaneous melanoma metastases to sentinel lymph nodes have been identified; however, few have been found to be reproducibly significant. This study investigated the significance of factors for predicting regional nodal disease in cutaneous melanoma using a large multicenter database. METHODS: Seventeen institutions submitted retrospective and prospective data on 3463 patients undergoing sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy for primary melanoma. Multiple demographic and tumor factors were analyzed for correlation with a positive SLN. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were performed. RESULTS: Of 3445 analyzable patients, 561 (16.3%) had a positive SLN biopsy. In multivariate analysis of 1526 patients with complete records for 10 variables, increasing Breslow thickness, lymphovascular invasion, ulceration, younger age, the absence of regression, and tumor location on the trunk were statistically significant predictors of a positive SLN. CONCLUSIONS: These results confirm the predictive significance of the well-established variables of Breslow thickness, ulceration, age, and location, as well as consistently reported but less well-established variables such as lymphovascular invasion. In addition, the presence of regression was associated with a lower likelihood of a positive SLN. Consideration of multiple tumor parameters should influence the decision for SLN biopsy and the estimation of nodal metastatic disease risk.

Update on the melanoma staging system: the importance of sentinel node staging and primary tumor mitotic rate.

The 7(th) Edition of the AJCC Staging Manual includes a detailed summary of melanoma staging and prognosis. The revisions are summarized in this article, along with details on two key aspects of melanoma staging: the incorporation of mitotic rate of the primary melanoma and the key role of the sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) in determining accurate staging for clinically occult nodal metastases. Primary tumor mitotic rate was introduced as a major criterion for melanoma staging and prognosis that replaces the Clark's level of invasion, and is now proven to be an important independent adverse predictor of survival. Analysis of the AJCC melanoma staging database demonstrated a significant inverse correlation between primary tumor mitotic rate (histologically defined as mitoses/mm(2) ) and survival. The use of SLNB reliably identifies melanoma patients with nodal micrometastases, enabling clinicians to identify patients with occult nodal metastases that would otherwise take months or years to become clinically palpable The number of nodal metastases was the most significant independent predictor of survival among all patients with stage III disease, including among patients with nodal micrometastases, and continues to be a primary criterion for defining Stage III melanoma. A clinical scoring system model and multivariate predictive tool under the auspices of the AJCC has led to a first-generation web-based predictive tool (www.melanomaprognosis.org).

Cutaneous melanoma: a model to study cancer metastasis.

Nodal status in melanoma is a critically important prognostic factor for patient outcome. The survival rate drops to <10% when melanoma has spread beyond the regional lymph nodes and includes visceral involvement. In general, the process of melanoma metastasis is progressive in that dissemination of melanoma from the primary site to the regional lymph nodes occurs prior to systemic disease. The goal of this review article is to describe melanoma as a clinical model to study cancer metastasis. A future challenge is to develop a molecular taxonomy to subgroup melanoma patients at various stages of tumor progression for more accurate targeted treatment.

Predicting survival outcome of localized melanoma: an electronic prediction tool based on the AJCC Melanoma Database.

BACKGROUND: We sought to develop a reliable and reproducible statistical model to predict the survival outcome of patients with localized melanoma. METHODS: A total of 25,734 patients with localized melanoma from the 2008 American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Melanoma Database were used for the model development and validation. The predictive model was developed from the model development data set (n = 14,760) contributed by nine major institutions and study groups and was validated on an independent model validation data set (n = 10,974) consisting of patients from a separate melanoma center. Multivariate analyses based on the Cox model were performed for the model development, and the concordance correlation coefficients were calculated to assess the adequacy of the predictive model. RESULTS: Patient characteristics in both data sets were virtually identical, and tumor thickness was the single most important prognostic factor. Other key prognostic factors identified by stratified analyses included ulceration, lesion site, and patient age. Direct comparisons of the predicted 5- and 10-year survival rates calculated from the predictive model and the observed Kaplan-Meier 5- and 10-year survival rates estimated from the validation data set yielded high concordance correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.93, respectively. A Web-based electronic prediction tool was also developed ( http://www.melanomaprognosis.org/ ). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first predictive model for localized melanoma that was developed based on a very large data set and was successfully validated on an independent data set. The high concordance correlation coefficients demonstrated the accuracy of the predicted model. This predictive model provides a clinically useful tool for making treatment decisions, for assessing patient risk, and for planning and analyzing clinical trials.

Sentinel node positive melanoma patients: prediction and prognostic significance of nonsentinel node metastases and development of a survival tree model.

BACKGROUND: Completion lymph node dissection (CLND) following positive sentinel node biopsy (SNB) for melanoma detects additional nonsentinel node (NSN) metastases in approximately 20% of cases. This study aimed to establish whether NSN status can be predicted, to determine its effect on survival, and to develop survival tree models for the sentinel node (SN) positive population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sydney Melanoma Unit (SMU) patients with at least 1 positive SN, meeting inclusion criteria and treated between October 1992 and June 2005, were identified from the Unit database. Survival characteristics, potential predictors of survival, and NSN status were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method, Cox regression model, and logistic regression analyses, respectively. Classification tree analysis was performed to identify groups with distinctly different survival characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 323 SN-positive melanoma patients met the inclusion criteria. On multivariate analysis, age, gender, primary tumor thickness, mitotic rate, number of positive NSNs, or total number of positive nodes were statistically significant predictors of survival. NSN metastasis, found at CLND in 19% of patients, was only predicted to a statistically significant degree by ulceration. Multivariate analyses demonstrated that survival was more closely related to number of positive NSNs than total number of positive nodes. Classification tree analysis revealed 4 prognostically distinct survival groups. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with NSN metastases could not be reliably identified prior to CLND. Prognosis following CLND was more closely related to number of positive NSNs than total number of positive nodes. Classification tree analysis defined distinctly different survival groups more accurately than use of single-factor analysis.

FCRL2 expression predicts IGHV mutation status and clinical progression in chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

CD38 and ZAP-70 are both useful prognostic markers for B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), but are variably discordant with IGHV mutation status. A total of 5 human Fc receptor-like molecules (FCRL1-5) have tyrosine-based immunoregulatory potential and are expressed by B-lineage subpopulations. To determine their prognostic potential in CLL, FCRL expression was compared with IGHV mutation status, CD38 and ZAP-70 expression, and clinical features from 107 patients. FCRL1, FCRL2, FCRL3, and FCRL5 were found at markedly higher levels on CLL cells bearing mutated IGHV genes than on unmutated CLL cells or CD19(+) polyclonal B lymphocytes. Univariate comparisons found that similar to CD38 and ZAP-70, FCRL expression was strongly associated with IGHV mutation status; however, only FCRL2 maintained independent predictive value by multivariate logistic analysis. Strikingly, FCRL2 demonstrated 94.4% concordance with IGHV mutation compared with 76.6% for CD38 and 80.4% for ZAP-70. Compared with other indicators, FCRL2 was also superior at predicting the time to first therapy; the median treatment-free interval was 15.5 years for patients with high FCRL2 expression compared with 3.75 years for FCRL2-low patients. Our studies indicate that FCRL2 has robust predictive value for determining IGHV gene mutation status and clinical progression and thus may further improve prognostic definition in CLL.

Optimal designs for two-arm, phase II clinical trial design with multiple constraints.

Multi-stage Phase II trials are often employed in practice but may not be the best approach when the endpoint of interest is not obtained soon after enrollment and/or when a control arm is desired. We present a new design in which sample size determination includes a control arm and allows for the estimation of response for each treatment as well as estimation of the difference in the response rates. We evaluate this design under varying allocation schemes to treatment arms and response rates for each treatment.

Turning Access into a web-enabled secure information system for clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Organizations that have limited resources need to conduct clinical studies in a cost-effective, but secure way. Clinical data residing in various individual databases need to be easily accessed and secured. Although widely available, digital certification, encryption, and secure web server, have not been implemented as widely, partly due to a lack of understanding of needs and concerns over issues such as cost and difficulty in implementation. PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to test the possibility of centralizing various databases and to demonstrate ways of offering an alternative to a large-scale comprehensive and costly commercial product, especially for simple phase I and II trials, with reasonable convenience and security. METHODS: We report a working procedure to transform and develop a standalone Access database into a secure Web-based secure information system. RESULTS: For data collection and reporting purposes, we centralized several individual databases; developed, and tested a web-based secure server using self-issued digital certificates. LIMITATIONS: The system lacks audit trails. The cost of development and maintenance may hinder its wide application. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical trial databases scattered in various departments of an institution could be centralized into a web-enabled secure information system. The limitations such as the lack of a calendar and audit trail can be partially addressed with additional programming. The centralized Web system may provide an alternative to a comprehensive clinical trial management system.

Parametric modeling of localized melanoma prognosis and outcome.

This investigation explored the most suitable parametric model for melanoma prognosis and compared it with the Cox model. Cox-Snell residuals and survival function plots were applied to assess whether the generalized gamma (GG) model was the best-fit parametric model for the data. The GG model is a powerful alternative to the Cox model in prognostic modeling. The GG model offers an advantage of explicit and flexible individualized hazard functions over the Cox model and provides a clinically useful risk assessment over time to aid clinicians in formulating patient treatment, follow-up plans, and clinical trial design and analysis.

Variable selection in logistic regression for detecting SNP-SNP interactions: the rheumatoid arthritis example.

Many complex disease traits are observed to be associated with single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) interactions. In testing small-scale SNP-SNP interactions, variable selection procedures in logistic regressions are commonly used. The empirical evidence of variable selection for testing interactions in logistic regressions is limited. This simulation study was designed to compare nine variable selection procedures in logistic regressions for testing SNP-SNP interactions. Data on 10 SNPs were simulated for 400 and 1000 subjects (case/control ratio=1). The simulated model included one main effect and two 2-way interactions. The variable selection procedures included automatic selection (stepwise, forward and backward), common 2-step selection, AIC- and SC-based selection. The hierarchical rule effect, in which all main effects and lower order terms of the highest-order interaction term are included in the model regardless of their statistical significance, was also examined. We found that the stepwise variable selection without the hierarchical rule, which had reasonably high authentic (true positive) proportion and low noise (false positive) proportion, is a better method compared to other variable selection procedures. For testing interactions, the hierarchical rule effect was obvious. The procedure without the hierarchical rule requires fewer terms in testing interactions, so it can accommodate more SNPs than the procedure with the hierarchical rule. For testing interactions, the procedures without the hierarchical rule had higher authentic proportion and lower noise proportion compared with ones with the hierarchical rule. These variable selection procedures were also applied and compared in a rheumatoid arthritis study.

Prognosis and determinants of outcome following locoregional or distant recurrence in patients with cutaneous melanoma.

OBJECTIVE: Information on prognosis for patients with cutaneous melanoma after locoregional or distant recurrence is sparse and controversial. The aim of this study was to analyze factors influencing outcome after the development of a first relapse. METHODS: Information was extracted from the Sydney Melanoma Unit database for 873 melanoma patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Stage I and II disease treated between 1960 and 2002 who relapsed following treatment of their primary melanoma. Clinical and pathologic factors predicting survival were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: Initial presentation of recurrence was local: 95 patients (10.9%), in transit: 86 patients (9.9%), regional lymph node: 300 patients (34.4%), and distant: 392 patients (44.9%). Independent prognostic factors for survival of the 481 patients with only locoregional recurrence were type of recurrence, primary tumor ulceration, and patient age. Predictors for longer survival in the 392 patients with distant metastasis at the time of first presentation with recurrence were lung vs other sites and diagnosis of relapse after 1990 compared with diagnosis before 1980. CONCLUSIONS: The type of recurrence is the most important prognostic factor in melanoma patients who relapse. Primary tumor ulceration is the most important pathologic predictor. The results of this study suggest that management of distant metastases may have improved over the last 25 years, but many confounders and improved staging techniques make assessment of this unreliable.

A four-parameter logistic model for estimating titers of functional multiplexed pneumococcal opsonophagocytic killing assay.

In vitro opsonophagocytosis killing assay (OPA) is widely accepted to quantitate Streptococcus pneumococcal antibodies to serotype-specific pneumococcal capsular polysaccharide (PS). A titer estimation method is needed for large scale data generated by OPA, and it is one component of OPA standardization. In order to improve the reliability of OPA results, we developed a nonlinear fitting method using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with an option of a robust procedure to estimate titers of OPA data. Performance of the proposed method was evaluated by comparing precision and accuracy of titer estimation with traditional methods used in the literature by analyzing real experimental data sets. Goodness-of-fit to experimental data for the two model-based methods was also assessed. We conclude that the four-parameter logistic model is an alternative choice for titer estimation of OPA data. Computer software using the statistical language R and Microsoft Excel was developed to implement our calculation algorithm for OPA data.

A population-based validation of the American Joint Committee on Cancer melanoma staging system.

PURPOSE: A major revision of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stages for melanoma was implemented in 2002 after its validation in multinational cohorts including patients from cancer centers and cooperative groups. This staging system has not been validated in a US population-based cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used 41,417 patients with primary invasive cutaneous melanoma diagnosed between 1988 and 2001 from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry to validate the revised AJCC staging system. Survival rates computed from stage-specific Kaplan-Meier curves (time to melanoma-specific death) were compared with the survival rates from 17,600 patients in the original AJCC validation study. RESULTS: In the SEER cohort, 65% of reported melanomas were < or = 1.00 mm in thickness and 8.7% were more than 4.00 mm compared with 39% and 10% in the AJCC cohort (P < .001), respectively. AJCC stages were able to discriminate among SEER patient groups with different prognosis. However, SEER survival rates were significantly higher than those in the AJCC study and notably so in patients with T1a lesions (< or = 1 mm without ulceration). This population-specific effect remained significant after controlling for lesion thickness in all substages except stage IIA. CONCLUSION: Although this national population-based study validates the most recent revision of AJCC stages for melanoma, it emphasizes that survival rates are population specific and found them to be generally higher for SEER compared with AJCC patients. Population-specific survival rates should be used in study designs and decisions about patient-specific interventions.

Impact of sentinel node status and other risk factors on the clinical outcome of head and neck melanoma patients.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of sentinel lymph node (SLN) status and other risk factors on recurrence and overall survival in head and neck melanoma patients. DESIGN: The SLN Working Group, based in San Francisco, Calif, with its 11 member centers, the John Wayne Cancer Institute, and The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center pooled data on 629 primary head and neck melanoma patients who had selective sentinel lymphadenectomy. A total of 614 subjects were analyzable. All centers obtained internal review board approval and adhered to the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 regulations. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify factors associated with overall and disease-free survival. SETTING: Tertiary care medical centers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Clinical outcome of head and neck melanoma patients undergoing selective sentinel lymphadenectomy. RESULTS: Overall, 10.1% (n = 62) of the subjects had at least 1 positive node. Subjects with positive SLN status had significantly thicker tumors (mean thickness, 2.8 vs 2.1 mm; P < .001), and were more likely to have ulcerated tumors (P = .004). During the median follow-up of 3.3 years, the overall mortality from head and neck melanoma was 10%, with more than 20% experiencing at least 1 recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor site was an independent predictor of mortality; location on the scalp had a more than 3-fold (P < .001) greater mortality than tumors on the face. Tumor thickness was also an independent predictor of overall survival, and SLN status was the most important predictor of disease-free survival in the multivariate model (P < .001). Tumors on the scalp had the highest rate of recurrence, while those on the neck had the lowest. Tumor ulceration was the significant predictor of time to recurrence or disease-free survival (P < .001). CONCLUSION: In this multicenter study, SLN status and other risk factors have an effect on recurrence and/or overall survival.

Clinical applications for change-point analysis of herpes zoster pain.

Pain is the most frequent and disabling complication of herpes zoster. The analysis of pain severity data is complicated by the nonlinear rate of resolution. Further, three distinct phases characterize pain resolution--acute, subacute, and chronic. Using two clinical trial datasets as the bases for analyses, the rates of baseline pain resolution were computed across each of three phases and compared for age, severity of pain at onset, and number of lesions at baseline. The results defined transition points of 24.4 +/- 3.34 for the subacute phase and 110.3 +/- 11.9 days for the chronic phase. The model demonstrated a treatment effect of valiciclovir (VACV) during the subacute phase as compared to acyclovir (ACV) (P = 0.006) and supports effects of age, baseline pain and number lesions on pain cessation rates in the acute phase. This model verifies three phases of zoster pain and delineates the impact of treatment and other factors on the phase-specific rates of pain cessation.

Randomized, controlled surgical trial of preoperative tumor curettage of basal cell carcinoma in Mohs micrographic surgery.

BACKGROUND: The use of preoperative tumor curettage in Mohs micrographic surgery has never been prospectively systematically assessed. OBJECTIVE: To assess the utility of preoperative tumor curettage in Mohs micrographic surgery for primary or recurrent, well-defined basal cell carcinoma less than 2 cm in diameter located on the head or neck. METHODS: Patients were randomized to either preoperative tumor curettage or control group and were compared in terms of percent surface area increase from tumor surface area to wound surface area, absolute surface area increase, number of tissue layers removed, types of repairs performed, and postoperative complications. Multivariate analysis was performed to see if tumor location, appearance (exophytic or flat), or histology affected any of the above. RESULTS: The preoperative tumor curettage group had a 399% (95% confidence interval [CI] 346-452) mean surface area increase from tumor to wound surface area versus 263% (95% CI 216-311) for control group (P=.0002). The preoperative tumor curettage group had a mean absolute surface area increase of 1.78 cm2 (95% CI 1.57-1.99) versus 1.40 cm2 (95% CI 1.15-1.65) for control group (P=.02). The preoperative tumor curettage group had fewer tissue layers removed (P=.3). Preoperative tumor curettage had no effect on types of repairs performed or number or type of postoperative complications. Tumor appearance and histology had no effect on any of the above end points. CONCLUSION: Preoperative tumor curettage was associated with significantly greater percent surface area increase and absolute surface area increase from tumor surface area to wound surface area. This difference did not affect type of repair performed or postoperative complications.

Epidemiology of malignant melanoma.

Trends in melanoma incidence have shown an increase in thinner, less lethal tumors in recent years. The overall increases in melanoma incidence have begun to slow in Western Europe and North America. Environmental risk factors are important in the development of melanomas in individuals with high-risk phenotypes, and these people should modify their recreational and overall UV exposure. Primary prevention of melanoma and early detection are essential to reduce melanoma mortality in future years. The complex relationships between genetic factors and patterns of sun exposure, especially in childhood, are the focus of continued research.