Predicting the response of a long-distance migrant to changing environmental conditions in winter.

Access to high-quality food is critical for long-distance migrants to provide energy for migration and arrival at breeding grounds in good condition. We studied effects of changing abundance and availability of a marine food, common eelgrass (Zostera marina L.), on an arctic-breeding, migratory goose, black brant (Brant bernicla nigricans Lawrence 1846), at a key non-breeding site, Bahía San Quintín, Mexico. Eelgrass, the primary food of brant, is consumed when exposed by the tide or within reach from the water's surface. Using an individual-based model, we predicted effects of observed changes (1991-2013) in parameters influencing food abundance and availability: eelgrass biomass (abundance), eelgrass shoot length (availability, as longer shoots more within reach), brant population size (availability, as competition greater with more birds), and sea level (availability, as less food within reach when sea level higher). The model predicted that the ability to gain enough energy to migrate was most strongly influenced by eelgrass biomass (threshold January biomass for migration = 60 g m-2 dry mass). Conversely, annual variation in population size (except for 1998), was relatively low, and variation in eelgrass shoot length and sea level were not strongly related to ability to migrate. We used observed data on brant body mass at Bahía San Quintín and annual survival to test for effects of eelgrass biomass in the real system. The lowest observed values of body mass and survival were in years when biomass was below 60 g m-2, although in some years of low biomass body mass and/or survival was higher. This suggests that the real birds may have some capacity to compensate to meet their energy demands when eelgrass biomass is low. We discuss consequences for brant population trends and conservation.

FishMORPH - An agent-based model to predict salmonid growth and distribution responses under natural and low flows.

Predicting fish responses to modified flow regimes is becoming central to fisheries management. In this study we present an agent-based model (ABM) to predict the growth and distribution of young-of-the-year (YOY) and one-year-old (1+) Atlantic salmon and brown trout in response to flow change during summer. A field study of a real population during both natural and low flow conditions provided the simulation environment and validation patterns. Virtual fish were realistic both in terms of bioenergetics and feeding. We tested alternative movement rules to replicate observed patterns of body mass, growth rates, stretch distribution and patch occupancy patterns. Notably, there was no calibration of the model. Virtual fish prioritising consumption rates before predator avoidance replicated observed growth and distribution patterns better than a purely maximising consumption rule. Stream conditions of low predation and harsh winters provide ecological justification for the selection of this behaviour during summer months. Overall, the model was able to predict distribution and growth patterns well across both natural and low flow regimes. The model can be used to support management of salmonids by predicting population responses to predicted flow impacts and associated habitat change.

When enough is not enough: shorebirds and shellfishing.

In a number of extensive coastal areas in northwest Europe, large numbers of long-lived migrant birds eat shellfish that are also commercially harvested. Competition between birds and people for this resource often leads to conflicts between commercial and conservation interests. One policy to prevent shellfishing from harming birds is to ensure that enough food remains after harvesting to meet most or all of their energy demands. Using simulations with behaviour-based models of five areas, we show here that even leaving enough shellfish to meet 100% of the birds' demands may fail to ensure that birds survive in good condition. Up to almost eight times this amount is needed to protect them from being harmed by the shellfishery, even when the birds can consume other kinds of non-harvested prey.

Shorebird predation of horseshoe crab eggs in Delaware Bay: species contrasts and availability constraints.

1. Functional responses -- the relationship between resource intake rate and resource abundance -- are widely used in explaining predator-prey interactions yet many studies indicate that resource availability is crucial in dictating intake rates. 2. For time-stressed migrant birds refuelling at passage sites, correct decisions concerning patch use are crucial as they determine fattening rates and an individual's future survival and reproduction. Measuring availability alongside abundance is essential if spatial and temporal patterns of foraging are to be explained. 3. A suite of shorebird species stage in Delaware Bay where they consume horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus eggs. Several factors including spawning activity and weather give rise to marked spatial and temporal variation in the abundance and availability of eggs. We undertook field experiments to determine and contrast the intake rates of shorebird species pecking for surface and probing for buried eggs. 4. Whether eggs were presented on the sand surface or buried, we demonstrate strong aggregative responses and rapid depletion (up to 80%). Depletion was greater at deeper depths when more eggs were present. No consistent give-up densities were found. Type II functional responses were found for surface eggs and buried eggs, with peck success twice as high in the former. Maximum intake rates of surface eggs were up to 83% higher than those of buried eggs. 5. Caution is needed when applying functional responses predicted on the basis of morphology. Our expectation of a positive relationship between body size and intake rate was not fully supported. The smallest species, semipalmated sandpiper, had the lowest intake rate but the largest species, red knot, achieved only the same intake rate as the mid-sized dunlin. 6. These functional responses indicate that probing is rarely more profitable than pecking. Currently, few beaches provide egg densities sufficient for efficient probing. Areas where eggs are deposited on the sand surface are critical for successful foraging and ongoing migration. This may be especially true for red knot, which have higher energetic demands owing to their larger body size yet appear to have depressed intake rates because they consume smaller prey than their body size should permit.