Development of rapid guidelines: 3. GIN-McMaster Guideline Development Checklist extension for rapid recommendations.

BACKGROUND: Practice guidelines require a substantial investment of resources and time, often taking between 1 and 3 years from conceptualisation to publication. However, urgent situations require the development of recommendations in a shorter timeframe. In this third and final article in the series exploring challenges and solutions in developing rapid guidelines (RGs), we propose guiding principles for the development of RGs. METHODS: We utilised the Guideline International Network-McMaster Guideline Development Checklist (GDC) as a starting point for elements to consider during RG development. We built on those elements using the findings from a systematic review of guideline manuals, a survey of international organisations conducting RGs, and interviews of guideline developers within WHO. We reviewed initial findings and developed an intermediate list of elements, as well as narrative guidance. We then invited experts to validate the intermediate list, reviewing for placement, brevity and redundancy. We used this iterative process and group consensus to determine the final elements for RG development guidance. RESULTS: Our work identified 21 principles within the topics of the Guideline International Network-McMaster GDC to guide the planning and development of RGs. Principles fell within 15 of the 18 checklist topics, highlighting strategies to streamline and expedite the guideline development process. CONCLUSIONS: We defined principles to guide the development of RGs, while maintaining a standardised, rigorous and transparent process. These principles will serve as guidance for guideline developers responding to urgent situations such as public health urgencies. Integration of these principles within currently disseminated guideline development standards will facilitate the use of those tools in situations necessitating RG recommendations.

Exposure to multiple chemicals in a cohort of reproductive-aged Danish women.

BACKGROUND: Current exposure assessment research does not sufficiently address multi-pollutant exposure and their correlations in human media. Understanding the extent of chemical exposure in reproductive-aged women is of particular concern due to the potential for in utero exposure and fetal susceptibility. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to characterize concentrations of chemical biomarkers during preconception and examine correlations between and within chemical classes. METHODS: We examined concentrations of 135 biomarkers from 16 chemical classes in blood and urine from 73 women aged 18-40 enrolled in Snart Foraeldre/Milieu, a prospective cohort study of pregnancy planners in Denmark (2011-2014). We compared biomarker concentrations with United States similarly-aged, non-pregnant women who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Environmental Survey (NHANES) and with other international biomonitoring studies. We performed principal component analysis to examine biomarker correlations. RESULTS: The mean number of biomarkers detected in the population was 92 (range: 60-108). The most commonly detected chemical classes were phthalates, metals, phytoestrogens and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Except blood mercury, urinary barium and enterolactone, geometric means were higher in women from NHANES. Chemical classes measured in urine generally did not load on a single component, suggesting high between-class correlation among urinary biomarkers, while there is high within-class correlation for biomarkers measured in serum and blood. CONCLUSIONS: We identified ubiquitous exposure to multiple chemical classes in reproductive-aged Danish women, supporting the need for more research on chemical mixtures during preconception and early pregnancy. Inter- and intra-class correlation between measured biomarkers may reflect common exposure sources, specific lifestyle factors or shared metabolism pathways.

A proposed framework for the systematic review and integrated assessment (SYRINA) of endocrine disrupting chemicals.

BACKGROUND: The issue of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is receiving wide attention from both the scientific and regulatory communities. Recent analyses of the EDC literature have been criticized for failing to use transparent and objective approaches to draw conclusions about the strength of evidence linking EDC exposures to adverse health or environmental outcomes. Systematic review methodologies are ideal for addressing this issue as they provide transparent and consistent approaches to study selection and evaluation. Objective methods are needed for integrating the multiple streams of evidence (epidemiology, wildlife, laboratory animal, in vitro, and in silico data) that are relevant in assessing EDCs. METHODS: We have developed a framework for the systematic review and integrated assessment (SYRINA) of EDC studies. The framework was designed for use with the International Program on Chemical Safety (IPCS) and World Health Organization (WHO) definition of an EDC, which requires appraisal of evidence regarding 1) association between exposure and an adverse effect, 2) association between exposure and endocrine disrupting activity, and 3) a plausible link between the adverse effect and the endocrine disrupting activity. RESULTS: Building from existing methodologies for evaluating and synthesizing evidence, the SYRINA framework includes seven steps: 1) Formulate the problem; 2) Develop the review protocol; 3) Identify relevant evidence; 4) Evaluate evidence from individual studies; 5) Summarize and evaluate each stream of evidence; 6) Integrate evidence across all streams; 7) Draw conclusions, make recommendations, and evaluate uncertainties. The proposed method is tailored to the IPCS/WHO definition of an EDC but offers flexibility for use in the context of other definitions of EDCs. CONCLUSIONS: When using the SYRINA framework, the overall objective is to provide the evidence base needed to support decision making, including any action to avoid/minimise potential adverse effects of exposures. This framework allows for the evaluation and synthesis of evidence from multiple evidence streams. Finally, a decision regarding regulatory action is not only dependent on the strength of evidence, but also the consequences of action/inaction, e.g. limited or weak evidence may be sufficient to justify action if consequences are serious or irreversible.

Expanded Systematic Evidence Map for Hundreds of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) and Comprehensive PFAS Human Health Dashboard.

BACKGROUND: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) encompass a class of chemically and structurally diverse compounds that are extensively used in industry and detected in the environment. The US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) 2021 PFAS Strategic Roadmap describes national research plans to address the challenge of PFAS. OBJECTIVES: Systematic Evidence Map (SEM) methods were used to survey and summarize available epidemiological and mammalian bioassay evidence that could inform human health hazard identification for a set of 345 PFAS that were identified by the US EPA's Center for Computational Toxicology and Exposure (CCTE) for in vitro toxicity and toxicokinetic assay testing and through interagency discussions on PFAS of interest. This work builds from the 2022 evidence map that collated evidence on a separate set of ∼150 PFAS. Like our previous work, this SEM does not include PFAS that are the subject of ongoing or completed assessments at the US EPA. METHODS: SEM methods were used to search, screen, and inventory mammalian bioassay and epidemiological literature from peer-reviewed and gray literature sources using manual review and machine-learning software. For each included study, study design details and health end points examined were summarized in interactive web-based literature inventories. Some included studies also underwent study evaluation and detailed extraction of health end point data. All underlying data is publicly available online as interactive visuals with downloadable metadata. RESULTS: More than 13,000 studies were identified from scientific databases. Screening processes identified 121 mammalian bioassay and 111 epidemiological studies that met screening criteria. Epidemiological evidence (available for 12 PFAS) mostly assessed the reproductive, endocrine, developmental, metabolic, cardiovascular, and immune systems. Mammalian bioassay evidence (available for 30 PFAS) commonly assessed effects in the reproductive, whole-body, nervous, and hepatic systems. Overall, 41 PFAS had evidence across mammalian bioassay and epidemiology data streams (roughly 11% of searched chemicals). DISCUSSION: No epidemiological and/or mammalian bioassay evidence were identified for most of the PFAS included in our search. Results from this SEM, our 2022 SEM on ∼150 PFAS, and other PFAS assessment products from the US EPA are compiled into a comprehensive PFAS dashboard that provides researchers and regulators an overview of the current PFAS human health landscape including data gaps and can serve as a scoping tool to facilitate prioritization of PFAS-related research and/or risk assessment activities. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13423.

A tool to assess risk of bias in non-randomized follow-up studies of exposure effects (ROBINS-E).

BACKGROUND: Observational epidemiologic studies provide critical data for the evaluation of the potential effects of environmental, occupational and behavioural exposures on human health. Systematic reviews of these studies play a key role in informing policy and practice. Systematic reviews should incorporate assessments of the risk of bias in results of the included studies. OBJECTIVE: To develop a new tool, Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies - of Exposures (ROBINS-E) to assess risk of bias in estimates from cohort studies of the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. METHODS AND RESULTS: ROBINS-E was developed by a large group of researchers from diverse research and public health disciplines through a series of working groups, in-person meetings and pilot testing phases. The tool aims to assess the risk of bias in a specific result (exposure effect estimate) from an individual observational study that examines the effect of an exposure on an outcome. A series of preliminary considerations informs the core ROBINS-E assessment, including details of the result being assessed and the causal effect being estimated. The assessment addresses bias within seven domains, through a series of 'signalling questions'. Domain-level judgements about risk of bias are derived from the answers to these questions, then combined to produce an overall risk of bias judgement for the result, together with judgements about the direction of bias. CONCLUSION: ROBINS-E provides a standardized framework for examining potential biases in results from cohort studies. Future work will produce variants of the tool for other epidemiologic study designs (e.g. case-control studies). We believe that ROBINS-E represents an important development in the integration of exposure assessment, evidence synthesis and causal inference.

Environmental chemicals and type 2 diabetes: an updated systematic review of the epidemiologic evidence.

The burden of diabetes is increasing globally. Identifying novel preventable risk factors is an urgent need. In 2011, the U.S. National Toxicological Program (NTP) conducted a workshop to evaluate the epidemiologic and experimental evidence on the relationship of environmental chemicals with obesity, diabetes, and metabolic syndrome. Although the evidence was insufficient to establish causality, the NTP workshop review identified an overall positive association between some environmental chemicals and diabetes. In the present systematic review, our objective was to summarize the epidemiological research published since the NTP workshop. We identified a total of 29 articles (7 on arsenic, 3 on cadmium, 2 on mercury, 11 on persistent organic pollutants, 3 on phthalates, and 4 on bisphenol A), including 7 prospective studies. Considering consistency, temporality, strength, dose-response relationship, and biological plausibility (confounding), we concluded that the evidence is suggestive but not sufficient for a relationship between arsenic and persistent organic pollutants and is insufficient for mercury, phthalates, and bisphenol A. For cadmium, the epidemiologic evidence does not seem to suggest an association with diabetes. Important research questions include the need for additional prospective studies and the evaluation of the dose-response relationship, the role of joint exposures, and effect modification with other comorbidities and genetic variants.

Application of systematic evidence mapping to identify available data on the potential human health hazards of selected market-relevant azo dyes.

BACKGROUND: Azo dyes are used in textiles and leather clothing. Human exposure can occur from wearing textiles containing azo dyes. Since the body's enzymes and microbiome can cleave azo dyes, potentially resulting in mutagenic or carcinogenic metabolites, there is also an indirect health concern on the parent compounds. While several hazardous azo dyes are banned, many more are still in use that have not been evaluated systematically for potential health concerns. This systematic evidence map (SEM) aims to compile and categorize the available toxicological evidence on the potential human health risks of a set of 30 market-relevant azo dyes. METHODS: Peer-reviewed and gray literature was searched and over 20,000 studies were identified. These were filtered using Sciome Workbench for Interactive computer-Facilitated Text-mining (SWIFT) Review software with evidence stream tags (human, animal, in vitro) yielding 12,800 unique records. SWIFT Active (a machine-learning software) further facilitated title/abstract screening. DistillerSR software was used for additional title/abstract, full-text screening, and data extraction. RESULTS: 187 studies were identified that met populations, exposures, comparators, and outcomes (PECO) criteria. From this pool, 54 human, 78 animal, and 61 genotoxicity studies were extracted into a literature inventory. Toxicological evidence was abundant for three azo dyes (also used as food additives) and sparse for five of the remaining 27 compounds. Complementary search in ECHA's REACH database for summaries of unpublished study reports revealed evidence for all 30 dyes. The question arose of how this information can be fed into an SEM process. Proper identification of prioritized dyes from various databases (including U.S. EPA's CompTox Chemicals Dashboard) turned out to be a challenge. Evidence compiled by this SEM project can be evaluated for subsequent use in problem formulation efforts to inform potential regulatory needs and prepare for a more efficient and targeted evaluation in the future for human health assessments.

Biological plausibility in environmental health systematic reviews: a GRADE concept paper.

BACKGROUND: "Biological plausibility" is a concept frequently referred to in environmental and public health when researchers are evaluating how confident they are in the results and inferences of a study or evidence review. Biological plausibility is not, however, a domain of one of the most widely used approaches for assessing the certainty of evidence (CoE) which underpins the findings of a systematic review, the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) CoE Framework. OBJECTIVES: Whether the omission of biological plausibility is a potential limitation of the GRADE CoE Framework is a topic that is regularly discussed, especially in the context of environmental health systematic reviews. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We analyze how the concept of "biological plausibility," as applied in the context of assessing certainty of the evidence that supports the findings of a systematic review, is accommodated under the processes of systematic review and the existing GRADE domains. RESULTS: We argue that "biological plausibility" is a concept which primarily comes into play when direct evidence about the effects of an exposure on a population of concern (usually humans) is absent, at high risk of bias, inconsistent, or limited in other ways. In such circumstances, researchers look toward evidence from other study designs to draw conclusions. In this respect, we can consider experimental animal and in vitro evidence as "surrogates" for the target populations, exposures, comparators, and outcomes of actual interest. Through discussion of 10 examples of experimental surrogates, we propose that the concept of biological plausibility consists of two principal aspects: a "generalizability aspect" and a "mechanistic aspect." CONCLUSIONS: The "generalizability aspect" concerns the validity of inferences from experimental models to human scenarios, and asks the same question as does the assessment of external validity or indirectness in systematic reviews. The "mechanistic aspect" concerns certainty in knowledge of biological mechanisms and would inform judgments of indirectness under GRADE, and thus the overall CoE. Although both aspects are accommodated under the indirectness domain of the GRADE CoE Framework, further research is needed to determine how to use knowledge of biological mechanisms in the assessment of indirectness of the evidence in systematic reviews.

Biological plausibility in environmental health systematic reviews: a GRADE concept paper.

BACKGROUND: "Biological plausibility" is a concept frequently referred to in environmental and public health when researchers are evaluating how confident they are in the results and inferences of a study or evidence review. Biological plausibility is not, however, a domain of one of the most widely-used approaches for assessing the certainty of evidence (CoE) which underpins the findings of a systematic review, the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) CoE Framework. Whether the omission of biological plausibility is a potential limitation of the GRADE CoE Framework is a topic that is regularly discussed, especially in the context of environmental health systematic reviews. OBJECTIVES: We analyse how the concept of "biological plausibility", as applied in the context of assessing certainty of the evidence that supports the findings of a systematic review, is accommodated under the processes of systematic review and the existing GRADE domains. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: We argue that "biological plausibility" is a concept which primarily comes into play when direct evidence about the effects of an exposure on a population of concern (usually humans) is absent, at high risk of bias, is inconsistent, or limited in other ways. In such circumstances, researchers look toward evidence from other study designs in order to draw conclusions. In this respect, we can consider experimental animal and in vitro evidence as "surrogates" for the target populations, exposures, comparators and outcomes of actual interest. Through discussion of 10 examples of experimental surrogates, we propose that the concept of biological plausibility consists of two principal aspects: a "generalisability aspect" and a "mechanistic aspect". The "generalisability aspect" concerns the validity of inferences from experimental models to human scenarios, and asks the same question as does the assessment of external validity or indirectness in systematic reviews. The "mechanistic aspect" concerns certainty in knowledge of biological mechanisms and would inform judgements of indirectness under GRADE, and thus the overall CoE. While both aspects are accommodated under the indirectness domain of the GRADE CoE Framework, further research is needed to determine how to use knowledge of biological mechanisms in the assessment of indirectness of the evidence in systematic reviews.

Epidemiology Evidence for Health Effects of 150 per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances: A Systematic Evidence Map.

BACKGROUND: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) comprise a large class of chemicals with widespread use and persistence in the environment and in humans; however, most of the epidemiology research has focused on a small subset. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this systematic evidence map (SEM) is to summarize the epidemiology evidence on approximately 150 lesser studied PFAS prioritized by the EPA for tiered toxicity testing, facilitating interpretation of those results as well as identification of priorities for risk assessment and data gaps for future research. METHODS: The Populations, Exposure, Comparators, and Outcomes (PECO) criteria were intentionally broad to identify studies of any health effects in humans with information on associations with exposure to the identified PFAS. Systematic review methods were used to search for literature that was screened using machine-learning software and manual review. Studies meeting the PECO criteria underwent quantitative data extraction and evaluation for risk of bias and sensitivity using the Integrated Risk Information System approach. RESULTS: 193 epidemiology studies were identified, which included information on 15 of the PFAS of interest. The most commonly studied health effect categories were metabolic (n=37), endocrine (n=30), cardiovascular (30), female reproductive (n=27), developmental (n=26), immune (n=22), nervous (n=21), male reproductive (n=14), cancer (n=12), and urinary (n=11) effects. In study evaluation, 120 (62%) studies were considered High/Medium confidence for at least one outcome. DISCUSSION: Most of the PFAS in this SEM have little to no epidemiology data available to inform evaluation of potential health effects. Although exposure to the 15 PFAS that had data was fairly low in most studies, these less-studied PFAS may be used as replacements for "legacy" PFAS, leading to potentially greater exposure. It is impractical to generate epidemiology evidence to fill the existing gaps for all potentially relevant PFAS. This SEM highlights some of the important research gaps that currently exist. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11185.

Assessing author willingness to enter study information into structured data templates as part of the manuscript submission process: A pilot study.

Background: Environmental health and other researchers can benefit from automated or semi-automated summaries of data within published studies as summarizing study methods and results is time and resource intensive. Automated summaries can be designed to identify and extract details of interest pertaining to the study design, population, testing agent/intervention, or outcome (etc.). Much of the data reported across existing publications lack unified structure, standardization and machine-readable formats or may be presented in complex tables which serve as barriers that impede the development of automated data extraction methodologies.As full automation of data extraction seems unlikely soon, encouraging investigators to submit structured summaries of methods and results in standardized formats with meta-data tagging of content may be of value during the publication process. This would produce machine-readable content to facilitate automated data extraction, establish sharable data repositories, help make research data FAIR, and could improve reporting quality. Objectives: A pilot study was conducted to assess the feasibility of asking participants to summarize study methods and results using a structured, web-based data extraction model as a potential workflow that could be implemented during the manuscript submission process. Methods: Eight participants entered study details and data into the Health Assessment Workplace Collaborative (HAWC). Participants were surveyed after the extraction exercise to ascertain 1) whether this extraction exercise will impact their conducting and reporting of future research, 2) the ease of data extraction, including which fields were easiest and relatively more problematic to extract and 3) the amount of time taken to perform data extractions and other related tasks. Investigators then presented participants the potential benefits of providing structured data in the format they were extracting. After this, participants were surveyed about 1) their willingness to provide structured data during the publication process and 2) whether they felt the potential application of structured data entry approaches and their implementation during the journal submission process should continue to be further explored. Conclusions: Routine provision of structured data that summarizes key information from research studies could reduce the amount of effort required for reusing that data in the future, such as in systematic reviews or agency scientific assessments. Our pilot study suggests that directly asking authors to provide that data, via structured templates, may be a viable approach to achieving this: participants were willing to do so, and the overall process was not prohibitively arduous. We also found some support for the hypothesis that use of study templates may have halo benefits in improving the conduct and completeness of reporting of future research. While limitations in the generalizability of our findings mean that the conditions of success of templates cannot be assumed, further research into how such templates might be designed and implemented does seem to have enough chance of success that it ought to be undertaken.

Systematic Evidence Map for Over One Hundred and Fifty Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS).

BACKGROUND: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a large class of synthetic (man-made) chemicals widely used in consumer products and industrial processes. Thousands of distinct PFAS exist in commerce. The 2019 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) Action Plan outlines a multiprogram national research plan to address the challenge of PFAS. One component of this strategy involves the use of systematic evidence map (SEM) approaches to characterize the evidence base for hundreds of PFAS. OBJECTIVE: SEM methods were used to summarize available epidemiological and animal bioassay evidence for a set of ∼150 PFAS that were prioritized in 2019 by the U.S. EPA's Center for Computational Toxicology and Exposure (CCTE) for in vitro toxicity and toxicokinetic assay testing. METHODS: Systematic review methods were used to identify and screen literature using manual review and machine-learning software. The Populations, Exposures, Comparators, and Outcomes (PECO) criteria were kept broad to identify mammalian animal bioassay and epidemiological studies that could inform human hazard identification. A variety of supplemental content was also tracked, including information on in vitro model systems; exposure measurement-only studies in humans; and absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME). Animal bioassay and epidemiology studies meeting PECO criteria were summarized with respect to study design, and health system(s) were assessed. Because animal bioassay studies with ≥21-d exposure duration (or reproductive/developmental study design) were most useful to CCTE analyses, these studies underwent study evaluation and detailed data extraction. All data extraction is publicly available online as interactive visuals with downloadable metadata. RESULTS: More than 40,000 studies were identified from scientific databases. Screening processes identified 44 animal and 148 epidemiology studies from the peer-reviewed literature and 95 animal and 50 epidemiology studies from gray literature that met PECO criteria. Epidemiological evidence (available for 15 PFAS) mostly assessed the reproductive, endocrine, developmental, metabolic, cardiovascular, and immune systems. Animal evidence (available for 40 PFAS) commonly assessed effects in the reproductive, developmental, urinary, immunological, and hepatic systems. Overall, 45 PFAS had evidence across animal and epidemiology data streams. DISCUSSION: Many of the ∼150 PFAS were data poor. Epidemiological and animal evidence were lacking for most of the PFAS included in our search. By disseminating this information, we hope to facilitate additional assessment work by providing the initial scoping literature survey and identifying key research needs. Future research on data-poor PFAS will help support a more complete understanding of the potential health effects from PFAS exposures. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10343.

Development of an Evidence-Based Risk Assessment Framework.

Assessment of potential human health risks associated with environmental and other agents requires careful evaluation of all available and relevant evidence for the agent of interest, including both data-rich and data-poor agents. With the advent of new approach methodologies in toxicological risk assessment, guidance on integrating evidence from mul-tiple evidence streams is needed to ensure that all available data is given due consideration in both qualitative and quantitative risk assessment. The present report summarizes the discussions among academic, government, and private sector participants from North America and Europe in an international workshop convened to explore the development of an evidence-based risk assessment framework, taking into account all available evidence in an appropriate manner in order to arrive at the best possible characterization of potential human health risks and associated uncertainty. Although consensus among workshop participants was not a specific goal, there was general agreement on the key consider-ations involved in evidence-based risk assessment incorporating 21st century science into human health risk assessment. These considerations have been embodied into an overarching prototype framework for evidence integration that will be explored in more depth in a follow-up meeting.

Use of systematic evidence maps within the US environmental protection agency (EPA) integrated risk information system (IRIS) program: Advancements to date and looking ahead.

Systematic evidence maps (SEMs) are increasingly used to inform decision-making and risk management priority-setting and to serve as problem formulation tools to refine the focus of questions that get addressed in full systematic reviews. Within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), SEMs have been used to inform data gaps, determine the need for updated assessments, inform assessment priorities, and inform development of study evaluation considerations, among other uses. Increased utilization of SEMs across the environmental health field has the potential to increase transparency and efficiency for data gathering, problem formulation, read-across, and evidence surveillance. Use of the SEM templates published in the companion text (Thayer et al.) can promote harmonization in the environmental health community and create more opportunities for sharing extracted content.

Systematic evidence map (SEM) template: Report format and methods used for the US EPA Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) program, Provisional Peer Reviewed Toxicity Value (PPRTV) program, and other "fit for purpose" literature-based human health analyses.

BACKGROUND: Systematic evidence maps (SEMs) are gaining visibility in environmental health for their utility to serve as problem formulation tools and assist in decision-making, especially for priority setting. SEMs are now routinely prepared as part of the assessment development process for the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) and Provisional Peer Reviewed Toxicity Value (PPRTV) assessments. SEMs can also be prepared to explore the available literature for an individual chemical or groups of chemicals of emerging interest. OBJECTIVES: This document describes the typical methods used to produce SEMs for the IRIS and PPRTV Programs, as well as "fit for purpose" applications using a variety of examples drawn from existing analyses. It is intended to serve as an example base template that can be adapted as needed for the specific SEM. The presented methods include workflows intended to facilitate rapid production. The Populations, Exposures, Comparators and Outcomes (PECO) criteria are typically kept broad to identify mammalian animal bioassay and epidemiological studies that could be informative for human hazard identification. In addition, a variety of supplemental content is tracked, e.g., studies presenting information on in vitro model systems, non-mammalian model systems, exposure-level-only studies in humans, pharmacokinetic models, and absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME). The availability of New Approach Methods (NAMs) evidence is also tracked (e.g., high throughput, transcriptomic, in silico, etc.). Genotoxicity studies may be considered as PECO relevant or supplemental material, depending on the topic and context of the review. Standard systematic review practices (e.g., two independent reviewers per record) and specialized software applications are used to search and screen the literature and may include the use of machine learning software. Mammalian bioassay and epidemiological studies that meet the PECO criteria after full-text review are briefly summarized using structured web-based extraction forms with respect to study design and health system(s) assessed. Extracted data is available in interactive visual formats and can be downloaded in open access formats. Methods for conducting study evaluation are also presented which is conducted on a case-by-case basis, depending on the usage of the SEM.

GRADE Guidelines 30: the GRADE approach to assessing the certainty of modeled evidence-An overview in the context of health decision-making.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study is to present the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) conceptual approach to the assessment of certainty of evidence from modeling studies (i.e., certainty associated with model outputs). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Expert consultations and an international multidisciplinary workshop informed development of a conceptual approach to assessing the certainty of evidence from models within the context of systematic reviews, health technology assessments, and health care decisions. The discussions also clarified selected concepts and terminology used in the GRADE approach and by the modeling community. Feedback from experts in a broad range of modeling and health care disciplines addressed the content validity of the approach. RESULTS: Workshop participants agreed that the domains determining the certainty of evidence previously identified in the GRADE approach (risk of bias, indirectness, inconsistency, imprecision, reporting bias, magnitude of an effect, dose-response relation, and the direction of residual confounding) also apply when assessing the certainty of evidence from models. The assessment depends on the nature of model inputs and the model itself and on whether one is evaluating evidence from a single model or multiple models. We propose a framework for selecting the best available evidence from models: 1) developing de novo, a model specific to the situation of interest, 2) identifying an existing model, the outputs of which provide the highest certainty evidence for the situation of interest, either "off-the-shelf" or after adaptation, and 3) using outputs from multiple models. We also present a summary of preferred terminology to facilitate communication among modeling and health care disciplines. CONCLUSION: This conceptual GRADE approach provides a framework for using evidence from models in health decision-making and the assessment of certainty of evidence from a model or models. The GRADE Working Group and the modeling community are currently developing the detailed methods and related guidance for assessing specific domains determining the certainty of evidence from models across health care-related disciplines (e.g., therapeutic decision-making, toxicology, environmental health, and health economics).

Application of a unified probabilistic framework to the dose-response assessment of acrolein.

BACKGROUND: In quantitative chemical risk assessment, a reference value is an estimate of an exposure to a chemical that is "likely to be without appreciable risk." Because current "deterministic" approaches do not quantitatively characterize the likelihood or severity of harm, the National Academies has recommended using reference values derived from a risk-specific dose that are treated as random variables, with probability distributions characterizing uncertainty and variability. OBJECTIVES: In order to build familiarity and address issues needed for routine and standardized derivation of probabilistic risk-specific dose distributions, a case example applying the unified probabilistic framework presented in Chiu and Slob (2015) is developed for acrolein. This case study is based on an updated systematic evidence map of literature (Keshava et al., 2020) identifying nasal lesions reported in Dorman et al. (2008) as the most appropriate endpoint and study for reference value derivation. METHODS: The probability distribution was calculated for the risk-specific dose, which in this implementation of the approach was calculated for the dose at which 1% of the human population is estimated to experience minimal lesions, and a probabilistic reference value was computed as the 5th percentile of this distribution. A deterministic reference value was also derived for comparison, and a sensitivity analysis of the probabilistic reference value was conducted investigating alternative assumptions for the point of departure type and exposure duration. RESULTS: The probabilistic reference value of 6 × 10-4 mg/m3 was slightly lower than the deterministic reference value of 8 × 10-4 mg/m3, and the risk-specific dose distribution had an uncertainty spanning a factor of 137 (95th-5th percentile ratio). Sensitivity analysis yielded slightly higher probabilistic reference values ranging between 9 × 10-4 mg/m3 and 2 × 10-3 mg/m3. CONCLUSIONS: Using a probabilistic approach for deriving a reference value allows quantitative characterization of the severity, incidence, and uncertainty of effects at a given dose. The results can be used to inform risk management decisions and improve risk communication.

Pharmacokinetics of bisphenol A in humans following dermal administration.

BACKGROUND: Human exposures to bisphenol A (BPA) are widespread. The current study addresses uncertainties regarding human pharmacokinetics of BPA following dermal exposure. OBJECTIVE: To examine the absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion of BPA in humans following dermal administration. METHODS: We dermally administered deuterated BPA (d6-BPA) to 10 subjects (6 men and 4 women) at a dose of 100 µg/kg over a 12-hour period and conducted blood and urine analysis from the beginning of dosing through a three- or six-day period. We present time-course serum and urine concentrations of total and unconjugated ("free") d6-BPA and used this information to calculate terminal half-life and area under the curve. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Detectable serum levels of total d6-BPA were observed at 1.4 h after the start of dosing, and a maximum serum concentration (Cmax) of 3.26 nM was observed. Free d6-BPA was detectable in serum 2.8 h after start of dermal administration, with Cmax of 0.272 nM. Beginning at approximately seven hours and continuing to 12 h (which corresponds to cessation of exposure), the concentration of free and total serum d6-BPA plateaued. The terminal half-lives of total d6-BPA and free d6-BPA in the body were 21.4 ± 9.81 h and 17.6 ± 7.69 h, respectively. Elimination from the body was rate-limited by kinetics in the dermal compartment. Free d6-BPA was a greater percentage of the area under the curve of total serum BPA (8.81%) compared to the 0.56% observed in our previously published oral study. Recovery of total d6-BPA in urine was <2% of the applied dose after six days. Analysis of the area under the curve for dermal and oral administration revealed that 2.2% of the dermal dose became systemically available. These data are in line with prior studies indicating how pharmacokinetics of BPA differ following oral and dermal exposures. Dermal exposure resulted in a longer apparent half-life and higher free:total d6-BPA ratio compared to oral.

Application of systematic evidence mapping to assess the impact of new research when updating health reference values: A case example using acrolein.

BACKGROUND: The environmental health community needs transparent, methodologically rigorous, and rapid approaches for updating human health risk assessments. These assessments often contain reference values for cancer and/or noncancer effects. Increasingly, the use of systematic review methods are preferred when developing these assessments. Systematic evidence maps are a type of analysis that has the potential to be very helpful in the update process, especially when combined with machine-learning software advances designed to expedite the process of conducting a review. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the applicability of evidence mapping to determine whether new evidence is likely to result in a change to an existing health reference value, using inhalation exposure to the air pollutant acrolein as a case example. METHODS: New literature published since the 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA) Reference Exposure Level (REL) for acrolein was assessed. Systematic review methods were used to search the literature and screening included the use of machine-learning software. The Populations, Exposures, Comparators and Outcomes (PECO) criteria were kept broad to identify studies that characterized acute and chronic exposure and could be informative for hazard characterization. Studies that met the PECO criteria after full-text review were briefly summarized before their suitability for chronic point of departure (POD) derivation and calculation of a reference value was considered. Studies considered potentially suitable underwent a targeted evaluation to determine their suitability for use in dose-response analysis. RESULTS: Over 15,000 studies were identified from scientific databases. Both machine-learning and manual screening processes were used to identify 60 studies considered PECO-relevant after full-text review. Most of these PECO-relevant studies were short-term exposure animal studies (acute or less than 1 month of exposure) and considered less suitable for deriving a chronic reference value when compared to the subchronic study in rats used in the 2008 OEHHA assessment. Thirteen epidemiological studies were identified but had limitations in the exposure assessment that made them less suitable for dose-response compared to the subchronic rat study. Among the 13 studies, there were four controlled trial studies that have the potential to be informative for future acute reference value derivation. Thus, the 2008 subchronic rat study used by OEHHA appears to still be the most appropriate study for chronic reference value derivation. In addition, advances in dosimetric modeling for gases, including new evidence pertinent to acrolein, could be considered when updating existing acrolein toxicity values. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence mapping is a very useful tool to assess the need for updating an assessment based on understanding the potential impact of new studies on revising an existing health reference value. In this case example, the focus was to identify studies suitable for chronic exposure dose-response analysis, while also identifying studies that may be important to consider for acute exposure scenarios, hazard identification, or for future research. This allows the evidence map to be a useful resource for a range of decision-making contexts. Specialized systematic review software increased the efficiency of the process in terms of human resources and time to conduct the analysis.