Anthropogenic Albedo Changes and the Earth's Climate.

The human species has been altering the environment over large geographic areas since the domestication of fire, plants, and animals. The progression from hunter to farmer to technologist has increased the variety and pace more than the geographic extent of human impact on the environment. A number of regions of the earth have experienced significant climatic changes closely related in time to anthropogenic environmental changes. Plausible physical models suggest a causal connection. The magnitudes of probable anthropogenic global albedo changes over the past millennia (and particularly over the past 25 years) are estimated. The results suggest that humans have made substantial contributions to global climate changes during the past several millennia, and perhaps over the past million years; further such changes are now under way.

Climatic change on Mars.

The equatorial sinuous channels on Mars detected by Mariner 9 point to a past epoch of higher pressures and abundant liquid water. Advective instability of the martian atmosphere permits two stable climates-one close to present conditions, the other at a pressure of the order of 1 bar depending on the quantity of buried volatiles. Variations in the obliquity of Mars, the luminosity of the sun, and the albedo of the polar caps each appear capable of driving the instability between a current ice age and more clement conditions. Obliquity driving alone implies that epochs of much higher and of much lower pressure must have characterized martian history. Climatic change on Mars may have important meteorological, geological, and biological implications.

Dissipation of marine stratiform clouds and collapse of the marine boundary layer due to the depletion of cloud condensation nuclei by clouds.

When the production of cloud condensation nuclei in the stratocumulus-topped marine boundary layer is low enough, droplet collisions can reduce concentrations of cloud droplet numbers to extremely low values. At low droplet concentrations a cloud layer can become so optically thin that cloud-top radiative cooling cannot drive vertical mixing. Under these conditions, model simulations indicate that the stratocumulus-topped marine boundary layer collapses to a shallow fog layer. Through this mechanism, marine stratiform clouds may limit their own lifetimes.

Climate and smoke: an appraisal of nuclear winter.

The latest understanding of nuclear winter is reviewed. Considerable progress has been made in quantifying the production and injection of soot by large-scale fires, the regional and global atmospheric dispersion of the soot, and the resulting physical, environmental, and climatic perturbations. New information has been obtained from laboratory studies, field experiments, and numerical modeling on a variety of scales (plume, mesoscale, and global). For the most likely soot injections from a full-scale nuclear exchange, three-dimensional climate simulations yield midsummer land temperature decreases that average 10 degrees to 20 degrees C in northern mid-latitudes, with local cooling as large as 35 degrees C, and subfreezing summer temperatures in some regions. Anomalous atmospheric circulations caused by solar heating of soot is found to stabilize the upper atmosphere against overturning, thus increasing the soot lifetime, and to accelerate interhemispheric transport, leading to persistent effects in the Southern Hemisphere. Serious new environmental problems associated with soot injection have been identified, including disruption of monsoon precipitation and severe depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer in the Northern Hemisphere. The basic physics of nuclear winter has been reaffirmed through several authoritative international technical assessments and numerous individual scientific investigations. Remaining areas of uncertainty and research priorities are discussed in view of the latest findings.

Role of the stratospheric polar freezing belt in denitrification.

Homogeneous freezing of nitric acid hydrate particles can produce a polar freezing belt in either hemisphere that can cause denitrification. Computed denitrification profiles for one Antarctic and two Arctic cold winters are presented. The vertical range over which denitrification occurs is normally quite deep in the Antarctic but limited in the Arctic. A 4 kelvin decrease in the temperature of the Arctic stratosphere due to anthropogenic and/or natural effects can trigger the occurrence of widespread severe denitrification. Ozone loss is amplified in a denitrified stratosphere, so the effects of falling temperatures in promoting denitrification must be considered in assessment studies of ozone recovery trends.

Nuclear winter: global consequences of multple nuclear explosions.

The potential global atmospheric and climatic consequences of nuclear war are investigated using models previously developed to study the effects of volcanic eruptions. Although the results are necessarily imprecise due to wide range of possible scenaros and uncertainty in physical parameters, the most probable first-order effects are serious. Significant hemispherical attenuation of the solar radiation flux and subfreezing land temperatures may be caused by fine dust raised in high-yield nuclear surface bursts and by smoke from city and forest fires ignited by airbursts of all yields. For many simulated exchanges of several thousand megatons, in which dust and smoke are generated and encircle the earth within 1 to 2 weeks, average light levels can be reduced to a few percent of ambient and land temperatures can reach -15 degrees to -25 degrees C. The yield threshold for major optical and climatic consequences may be very low: only about 100 megatons detonated over major urban centers can create average hemispheric smoke optical depths greater than 2 for weeks and, even in summer, subfreezing land temperatures for months. In a 5000-megaton war, at northern mid-latitude sites remote from targets, radioactive fallout on time scales of days to weeks can lead to chronic mean doses of up to 50 rads from external whole-body gamma-ray exposure, with a likely equal or greater internal dose from biologically active radionuclides. Large horizontal and vertical temperature gradients caused by absorption of sunlight in smoke and dust clouds may greatly accelerate transport of particles and radioactivity from the Northern Hemisphere to the Southern Hemisphere. When combined with the prompt destruction from nuclear blast, fires, and fallout and the later enhancement of solar ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion, long-term exposure to cold, dark, and radioactivity could pose a serious threat to human survivors and to other species.

Influence of solar heating and precipitation scavenging on the simulated lifetime of post--nuclear war smoke.

The behavior of smoke injected into the atmosphere by massive fires that might follow a nuclear war was simulated. Studies with a three-dimensional global atmospheric circulation model showed that heating of the smoke by sunlight would be important and might produce several effects that would decrease the efficiency with which precipitation removes smoke from the atmosphere. The heating gives rise to vertical motions that carry smoke well above the original injection height. Heating of the smoke also causes the tropopause, which is initially above the smoke, to reform below the heated smoke layer. Smoke above the tropopause is physically isolated from precipitation below. Consequently, the atmospheric residence time of the remaining smoke is greatly increased over the prescribed residence times used in previous models of nuclear winter.

Environmental effects of an impact-generated dust cloud: implications for the cretaceous-tertiary extinctions.

A model of the evolution and radiative effects of a debris cloud from a hypothesized impact event at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary suggests that the cloud could have reduced the amount of light at the earth's surface below that required for photosynthesis for several months and, for a somewhat shorter interval, even below that needed for many animals to see. For 6 months to 1 year, the surface would cool; the oceans would cool only a few degrees Celsius at most, but the continents might cool a maximum of 40 Kelvin. Extinctions in the ocean may have been caused primarily by the temporary cessation of photosynthesis, but those on land may have been primarily induced by a combination of lowered temperatures and reduced light.

Tunguska meteor fall of 1908: effects on stratospheric ozone.

In 1908, when the giant Tunguska meteor disintegrated in the earth's atmosphere over Siberia, it may have generated as much as 30 million metric tons of nitric oxide (NO) in the stratosphere and mesosphere. The photochemical aftereffects of the event have been simulated using a comprehensive model of atmospheric trace composition. Calculations indicate that up to 45 percent of the ozone in the Northern Hemisphere may have been depleted by Tunguska's nitric oxide cloud early in 1909 and large ozone reductions may have persisted until 1912. Measurements of atmospheric transparentiy by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory for the years 1909 to 1911 show evidence of a steady ozone recovery from unusually low levels in early 1909, implying a total ozone deficit of 30 +/- 15 percent. The coincidence in time between the observed ozone recovery and the Tunguska meteor fall indicates that the event may provide a test of current ozone depletion theories.

Ozone and aerosol changes during the 1991-1992 airborne arctic stratospheric expedition.

Stratospheric ozone and aerosol distributions were measured across the wintertime Arctic vortex from January to March 1992 with an airborne lidar system as part of the 1992 Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE II). Aerosols from the Mount Pinatubo eruption were found outside and inside the vortex with distinctly different distributions that clearly identified the dynamics of the vortex. Changes in aerosols inside the vortex indicated advection of air from outside to inside the vortex below 16 kilometers. No polar stratospheric clouds were observed and no evidence was found for frozen volcanic aerosols inside the vortex. Between January and March, ozone depletion was observed inside the vortex from 14 to 20 kilometers with a maximum average loss of about 23 percent near 18 kilometers.

A hybrid model of the CO2 geochemical cycle and its application to large impact events.

A hybrid model of the carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle is presented which is capable of calculating the partitioning of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere, ocean, and sedimentary rocks. The ocean is subdivided into a shallow, mixed layer, which remains in equilibrium with the atmosphere, and a massive, deep layer which does not. Gradients in dissolved carbon content are established between the mixed layer and the deep ocean as a consequence of downward fluxes of fecal matter and of dead planktonic organisms. The dissolved carbon content and alkalinity of the ocean as a whole are controlled by weathering and metamorphism of sedimentary rocks. Equilibrium solutions are derived for the preindustrial atmosphere/ocean system and for a system that may be similar to that existing during the Late Cretaceous Period. The model is then used to determine how the modern and ancient marine biospheres might be affected by an oceanic impact of a large asteroid or comet. Such an event could perturb the carbon cycle in several different ways. Global darkening caused by stratospheric dust veil could destroy most of the existing phytoplankton in a period of several weeks to several months. At the same time, dissolution of atmospheric NOx compounds synthesized during the impact would lower the pH of ocean surface waters and release CO2 into the atmosphere. Both effects might be enhanced by an influx of CO2 released from upwelling of deep ocean water near the hot impact site, from oxidation of dead organic matter, and from the comet itself. The net result could be to raise surface temperatures by several degrees and to make the surface ocean uninhabitable by calcareous organisms for as much as 20 yrs (the time scale for mixing with deep ocean). It appears unlikely, however, that an impact could create a "Strangelove ocean," in which surface waters remained corrosive to calcium carbonate for thousands or tens of thousands of years. Thus, disruption of the carbon cycle by an impact event cannot by itself explain the scarcity of calcium carbonate in sediments found within the first few centimeters above the K/T boundary.

How climate evolved on the terrestrial planets.

Planets with temperate, earthlike climates were once thought to be rare in our galaxy. Mathematical models now suggest that if planets do exist outside the solar system, many of them might be habitable.

Controls on the Archean climate system investigated with a global climate model.

The most obvious means of resolving the faint young Sun paradox is to invoke large quantities of greenhouse gases, namely, CO2 and CH4. However, numerous changes to the Archean climate system have been suggested that may have yielded additional warming, thus easing the required greenhouse gas burden. Here, we use a three-dimensional climate model to examine some of the factors that controlled Archean climate. We examine changes to Earth's rotation rate, surface albedo, cloud properties, and total atmospheric pressure following proposals from the recent literature. While the effects of increased planetary rotation rate on surface temperature are insignificant, plausible changes to the surface albedo, cloud droplet number concentrations, and atmospheric nitrogen inventory may each impart global mean warming of 3-7 K. While none of these changes present a singular solution to the faint young Sun paradox, a combination can have a large impact on climate. Global mean surface temperatures at or above 288 K could easily have been maintained throughout the entirety of the Archean if plausible changes to clouds, surface albedo, and nitrogen content occurred.

Hospitable archean climates simulated by a general circulation model.

Evidence from ancient sediments indicates that liquid water and primitive life were present during the Archean despite the faint young Sun. To date, studies of Archean climate typically utilize simplified one-dimensional models that ignore clouds and ice. Here, we use an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model to simulate the climate circa 2.8 billion years ago when the Sun was 20% dimmer than it is today. Surface properties are assumed to be equal to those of the present day, while ocean heat transport varies as a function of sea ice extent. Present climate is duplicated with 0.06 bar of CO2 or alternatively with 0.02 bar of CO2 and 0.001 bar of CH4. Hot Archean climates, as implied by some isotopic reconstructions of ancient marine cherts, are unattainable even in our warmest simulation having 0.2 bar of CO2 and 0.001 bar of CH4. However, cooler climates with significant polar ice, but still dominated by open ocean, can be maintained with modest greenhouse gas amounts, posing no contradiction with CO2 constraints deduced from paleosols or with practical limitations on CH4 due to the formation of optically thick organic hazes. Our results indicate that a weak version of the faint young Sun paradox, requiring only that some portion of the planet's surface maintain liquid water, may be resolved with moderate greenhouse gas inventories. Thus, hospitable late Archean climates are easily obtained in our climate model.

Fractal organic hazes provided an ultraviolet shield for early Earth.

The Archean Earth (3.8 to 2.5 billion years ago) was probably enshrouded by a photochemical haze composed of fractal aggregate hydrocarbon aerosols. The fractal structure of the aerosols would have had a strong effect on the radiative properties of the haze. In this study, a fractal aggregate haze was found to be optically thick in the ultraviolet wavelengths while remaining relatively transparent in the mid-visible wavelengths. At an annual production rate of 10(14) grams per year and an average monomer radius of 50 nanometers, the haze would have provided a strong shield against ultraviolet light while causing only minimal antigreenhouse cooling.

Algorithms for the calculation of scattering by stratified spheres.

Efficient, numerically stable, methods for the calculation of light-scattering intensity functions for concentrically coated spheres are discussed. Earlier forms of these equations are subject to various numerical difficulties which give rise to significant errors, especially for thin absorbing shells. The present equations are accurate for all refractive indices, for large and small particles, and for cores with any relative size.

Absorption of visible radiation in atmosphere containing mixtures of absorbing and nonabsorbing particles.

Recent measurements of the single-scattering albedo omega(0) of tropospheric aerosols indicate the presence of a strongly absorbing material which has tentatively been identified as graphitic carbon (soot). Theoretical calculations, based on several different models of the way in which soot might be mixed with other aerosol materials, show that a minimum of 20% soot by volume is necessary to achieve the observed urban value of omega(0) = 0.6. Rural values of the order of 0.8 can be accounted for with 1-5% soot by volume. These same values of omega can be produced by similar amounts of the iron oxide magnetite, which is shown to be virtually indistinguishable from soot by optical measurements performed on bulk samples. Calculations of phase functions for various mixtures of soot also indicate the difficulty of determining aerosol composition by optical scattering techniques. The climatic effects of these absorbing aeorosols are computed using a simple one-layer model, and the results suggest that heating rates in urban pollution layers may be of the order of 4 K/day.

Making Mars habitable.

Mars is believed to be lifeless, but it may be possible to transform it into a planet suitable for habitation by plants, and conceivably humans. The success of such an enterprise would depend on the abundance, distribution and form of materials on the planet that could provide carbon dioxide, water and nitrogen.