The Futility of Relative Methane Reduction Targets in the Absence of Measurement-Based Inventories.

Under the Global Methane Pledge, Canada is developing oil and gas sector methane regulations targeting 75% reductions from 2012 levels by 2030. Without measured baselines and inventories, such policies are ultimately unverifiable and unenforceable. Using the major oil and gas producing province of Saskatchewan as a case study, we derive first-ever measurement-based methane inventories for the region and comprehensively model previous emissions back to the 2012 baseline. Although relative reductions of 23-69% have likely occurred, the dispersion of modeled possibilities and the high emissions from continuing production illustrate the limits of this approach as a meaningful policy metric. Moreover, nearly 90% of apparent reductions are explained by decreased production at heavy oil facilities, suggesting emissions have potential to rebound if production resumes. By contrast, derived measurement-based methane emissions intensities facilitate quantitative assessment and show that despite any past reductions, Saskatchewan's 0.41 ± 0.03 g/MJ intensity remains among the highest in North America. This highlights how relative reduction targets absent measured baselines and inventories are inherently futile and risk rewarding high emitters while obscuring ongoing mitigation potential. Ultimately, required global methane reductions will only be achieved by adopting objectively and independently verifiable emission metrics while measuring and tracking progress toward a net zero future.

Methane Venting at Cold Heavy Oil Production with Sand (CHOPS) Facilities Is Significantly Underreported and Led by High-Emitting Wells with Low or Negative Value.

Cold Heavy Oil Production with or without Sand, CHOP(S), facilities produce a significant portion of Canada's conventional oil. Methane venting from single-well CHOPS facilities in Saskatchewan, Canada was measured (i) using Bridger Photonics' airborne Gas Mapping LiDAR (GML) at 962 sites and (ii) on-site using an optical mass flux meter (VentX), ultrasonic flow meter, and QOGI camera at 11 sites. The strong correlation between ground measurements and airborne GML supported subsequent detailed analysis of the aerial data and to our knowledge is the first study to directly test the ability of airplane surveys to accurately reproduce mean emission rates of unsteady sources. Actual methane venting was found to be nearly four times greater than the industry-reported levels used in emission inventories, with ∼80% of all emissions attributed to casing gas venting. Further analysis of site-total emissions revealed potential gaps in regulations, with 14% of sites appearing to exceed regulated limits while accounting for 61% of measured methane emissions. Finally, the concept of marginal wells was adapted to consider the inferred cost of methane emissions under current carbon pricing. Results suggest that almost a third of all methane is emitted from environmentally marginal wells, where the inferred methane cost negates the value of the oil produced. Overall, the present results illustrate the importance of independent monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) to ensure accuracy in reporting and regulatory compliance, and to ensure mitigation targets are not foiled by a collection of disproportionately high-emitting sites.

Origins of Oil and Gas Sector Methane Emissions: On-Site Investigations of Aerial Measured Sources.

Success in reducing oil and gas sector methane emissions is contingent on understanding the sources driving emissions, associated options for mitigation, and the effectiveness of regulations in achieving intended outcomes. This study combines high-resolution, high-sensitivity aerial survey data with subsequent on-site investigations of detected sources to examine these points. Measurements were performed in British Columbia, Canada, an active oil- and gas-producing province with modern methane regulations featuring mandatory three times per year leak detection and repair (LDAR) surveys at most facilities. Derived emission factors enabled by source attribution show that significant methane emissions persist under this regulatory framework, dominated by (i) combustion slip (compressor exhaust and also catalytic heaters, which are not covered in current regulations), (ii) intentional venting (uncontrolled tanks, vent stacks or intentionally unlit flares, and uncontrolled compressors), and (iii) unintentional venting (controlled tanks, unintentionally unlit/blown out flares, and abnormally operating pneumatics). Although the detailed analysis shows mitigation options exist for all sources, the importance of combustion slip and the persistently large methane contributions from controlled tanks and unlit flares demonstrate the limits of current LDAR programs and the critical need for additional monitoring and verification if regulations are to have the intended impacts, and reduction targets of 75% and greater are to be met.

Reduction of Signal Drift in a Wavelength Modulation Spectroscopy-Based Methane Flux Sensor.

Accurately quantifying unsteady methane venting from key oil and gas sector sources such as storage tanks and well casing vents is a critical challenge. Recently, we presented an optical sensor to meet this need that combines volume fraction and Doppler shift measurements using wavelength modulation spectroscopy with 2f harmonic detection to quantify mass flux of methane through a vent line. This paper extends the previous effort through a methodical component-by-component investigation of potential sources of thermally-induced measurement drift to guide the design of an updated sensor. Test data were analyzed using an innovative signal processing technique that permitted quantification of background wavelength modulation spectroscopy signal drift linked to specific components, and the results were successfully used to design a drift-resistant sensor. In the updated sensor, background signal strength was reduced, and stability improved, such that the empirical methane-fraction dependent velocity correction necessary in the original sensor was no longer required. The revised sensor improves previously reported measurement uncertainties on flow velocity from 0.15 to 0.10 m/s, while markedly reducing thermally-induced velocity drift from 0.44 m/s/K to 0.015 m/s/K. In the most general and challenging application, where both flow velocity and methane fraction are independently varying, the updated design reduces the methane mass flow rate uncertainty by more than a factor of six, from ±2.55 kg/h to ±0.40 kg/h. This new design also maintains the intrinsic safety of the original sensor and is ideally suited for unsteady methane vent measurements within hazardous locations typical of oil and gas facilities.

A Wavelength Modulation Spectroscopy-Based Methane Flux Sensor for Quantification of Venting Sources at Oil and Gas Sites.

An optical sensor employing tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy with wavelength modulation and 2f harmonic detection was designed, prototyped, and tested for applications in quantifying methane emissions from vent sources in the oil and gas sector. The methane absorption line at 6026.23 cm−1 (1659.41 nm) was used to measure both flow velocity and methane volume fraction, enabling direct measurement of the methane emission rate. Two configurations of the sensor were designed, tested, and compared; the first used a fully fiber-coupled cell with multimode fibers to re-collimate the laser beams, while the second used directly irradiated photodetectors protected by Zener barriers. Importantly, both configurations were designed to enable measurements within regulated Class I / Zone 0 hazardous locations, in which explosive gases are expected during normal operations. Controlled flows with methane volume fractions of 0 to 100% and a velocity range of 0 to 4 m/s were used to characterize sensor performance at a 1 Hz sampling rate. The measurement error in the methane volume fraction was less than 10,000 ppm (1%) across the studied range for both configurations. The short-term velocity measurement error with pure methane was <0.3 m/s with a standard deviation of 0.14 m/s for the fiber-coupled configuration and <0.15 m/s with a standard deviation of 0.07 m/s for the directly irradiated detector configuration. However, modal noise in the multimode fibers of the first configuration contributed to an unstable performance that was highly sensitive to mechanical disturbances. The second configuration showed good potential for an industrial sensor, successfully quantifying methane flow rates up to 11 kg/h within ±2.1 kg/h at 95% confidence over a range of methane fractions from 25−100%, and as low as ±0.85 kg/h in scenarios where the source methane fraction is initially unknown within this range and otherwise invariant.

Where the Methane Is-Insights from Novel Airborne LiDAR Measurements Combined with Ground Survey Data.

Airborne LiDAR measurements, parallel controlled releases, and on-site optical gas imaging (OGI) survey and pneumatic device count data from 1 year prior, were combined to derive a new measurement-based methane inventory for oil and gas facilities in British Columbia, Canada. Results reveal a surprising distinction in the higher magnitudes, different types, and smaller number of sources seen by the plane versus OGI. Combined data suggest methane emissions are 1.6-2.2 times current federal inventory estimates. More importantly, analysis of high-resolution geo-located aerial imagery, facility schematics, and equipment counts allowed attribution to major source types revealing key drivers of this difference. More than half of emissions were attributed to three main sources: tanks (24%), reciprocating compressors (15%), and unlit flares (13%). These are the sources driving upstream oil and gas methane emissions, and specifically, where emerging regulations must focus to achieve meaningful reductions. Pneumatics accounted for 20%, but this contribution is lower than recent Canadian and U.S. inventory estimates, possibly reflecting a growing shift toward more low- and zero-emitting devices. The stark difference in the aerial and OGI results indicates key gaps in current inventories and suggests that policy and regulations relying on OGI surveys alone may risk missing a significant portion of emissions.

A Techno-Economic Analysis of Methane Mitigation Potential from Reported Venting at Oil Production Sites in Alberta.

The technical and economic potential for reducing methane emissions from reported venting and flaring volumes in 2015 at 9422 upstream oil production sites in Alberta, Canada was evaluated in a comprehensive site-by-site analysis. For each site, up to six different technologies for mitigation were considered, based on conserving gas into pipelines, combusting gas on site, or using gas for on-site fuel. Economic viability of mitigation was calculated using current economic parameters and gas price projections on a net present cost basis. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that a 45% reduction in methane emissions (consistent with current federal and provincial targets) from reported flaring and venting is technically and economically feasible at overall average costs ranging from $-2.98 CAD/tCO2e (i.e., a profit) to $2.51 CAD/tCO2e with no one site paying more than $11.02 CAD/tCO2e. If the reported baseline emissions are augmented to reflect results of recent airborne measurements, overall economics of mitigation generally improve due to larger available gas volumes at many sites. Considering federal carbon price targets of $50 CAD/tCO2e by 2022, there are relevant economic opportunities for mitigating methane from reported venting and flaring volumes well beyond a 45% reduction. This could partially offset the challenge in addressing the additional methane emissions from fugitive and unreported venting sources.

Comparisons of Airborne Measurements and Inventory Estimates of Methane Emissions in the Alberta Upstream Oil and Gas Sector.

Airborne measurements of methane emissions from oil and gas infrastructure were completed over two regions of Alberta, Canada. These top-down measurements were directly compared with region-specific bottom-up inventories that utilized current industry-reported flaring and venting volumes (reported data) and quantitative estimates of unreported venting and fugitive sources. For the 50 × 50 km measurement region near Red Deer, characterized by natural gas and light oil production, measured methane fluxes were more than 17 times greater than that derived from directly reported data but consistent with our region-specific bottom-up inventory-based estimate. For the 60 × 60 km measurement region near Lloydminster, characterized by significant cold heavy oil production with sand (CHOPS), airborne measured methane fluxes were five times greater than directly reported emissions from venting and flaring and four times greater than our region-specific bottom up inventory-based estimate. Extended across Alberta, our results suggest that reported venting emissions in Alberta should be 2.5 ± 0.5 times higher, and total methane emissions from the upstream oil and gas sector (excluding mined oil sands) are likely at least 25-50% greater than current government estimates. Successful mitigation efforts in the Red Deer region will need to focus on the >90% of methane emissions currently unmeasured or unreported.

Emission factors for hydraulically fractured gas wells derived using well- and battery-level reported data for Alberta, Canada.

A comprehensive technical analysis of available industry-reported well activity and production data for Alberta in 2011 has been used to derive flaring, venting, and diesel combustion greenhouse gas and criteria air contaminant emission factors specifically linked to drilling, completion, and operation of hydraulically fractured natural gas wells. Analysis revealed that in-line ("green") completions were used at approximately 53% of wells completed in 2011, and in other cases the majority (99.5%) of flowback gases were flared rather than vented. Comparisons with limited analogous data available in the literature revealed that reported total flared and vented natural gas volumes attributable to tight gas well-completions were ∼ 6 times larger than Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) estimates for natural gas well-completion based on wells ca. 2000, but 62% less than an equivalent emission factor that can be derived from U.S. EPA data. Newly derived emission factors for diesel combustion during well drilling and completion are thought to be among the first such data available in the open literature, where drilling-related emissions for tight gas wells drilled in Alberta in 2011 were found to have increased by a factor of 2.8 relative to a typical well drilled in Canada in 2000 due to increased drilling lengths. From well-by-well analysis of production phase flared, vented, and fuel usage natural gas volumes reported at 3846 operating tight gas wells in 2011, operational emission factors were developed. Overall results highlight the importance of operational phase GHG emissions at upstream well sites (including on-site natural gas fuel use), and the critical levels of uncertainty in current estimates of liquid unloading emissions.

Catalytic Heaters at Oil and Gas Sites May be a Significant yet Overlooked Seasonal Source of Methane Emissions.

Successful reduction of oil and gas sector methane emissions to meet near-zero intensity targets requires the identification and mitigation of all possible sources. One potentially important source is catalytic heaters, which have largely escaped attention in regulatory and mitigation efforts despite being ubiquitous at upstream production sites in cold climate regions. This study reports direct in situ measurements of the exhaust streams of 38 natural gas-fired catalytic heaters at upstream production sites in British Columbia, Canada. All heaters in the sample showed consistently poor methane conversion with mean destruction efficiencies of 61 ± 5% while releasing 235 [+31/-28] g of methane per cubic meter of fuel. Although individual units are generally small methane sources (mean of 0.28 ± 0.04 kg/h), their prevalence means they could represent 6% of the total provincial upstream methane inventory and as an aggregate methane source could be 5× more significant than abandoned wells. Notably, these heaters are seasonal sources whose emissions would be missed in measurement campaigns occurring solely in summer months. However, additional measurements from a small number of heat medium burners demonstrate that, where feasible, methane emissions can be reduced by approximately 425× by replacing catalytic heaters with centralized heat systems.

Characterization of methane emissions from five cold heavy oil production with sands (CHOPS) facilities.

Cold heavy oil production with sands (CHOPS) is a common oil extraction method in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan that can result in significant methane emissions due to annular venting. Little is known about the magnitude of these emissions, nor their contributions to the regional methane budget. Here the authors present the results of field measurements of methane emissions from CHOPS wells and compare them with self-reported venting rates. The tracer ratio method was used not only to analyze total site emissions but at one site it was also used to locate primary emission sources and quantify their contributions to the facility-wide emission rate, revealing the annular vent to be a dominant source. Emissions measured from five different CHOPS sites in Alberta showed large discrepancies between the measured and reported rates, with emissions being mainly underreported. These methane emission rates are placed in the context of current reporting procedures and the role that gas-oil ratio (GOR) measurements play in vented volume estimates. In addition to methane, emissions of higher hydrocarbons were also measured; a chemical "fingerprint" associated with CHOPS wells in this region reveals very low emission ratios of ethane, propane, and aromatics versus methane. The results of this study may inform future studies of CHOPS sites and aid in developing policy to mitigate regional methane emissions. IMPLICATIONS: Methane measurements from cold heavy oil production with sand (CHOPS) sites identify annular venting to be a potentially major source of emissions at these facilities. The measured emission rates are generally larger than reported by operators, with uncertainty in the gas-oil ratio (GOR) possibly playing a large role in this discrepancy. These results have potential policy implications for reducing methane emissions in Alberta in order to achieve the Canadian government's goal of reducing methane emissions by 40-45% below 2012 levels within 8 yr.