Machine learning-based models for advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis diagnosis in chronic hepatitis B patients with hepatic steatosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The global rise of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) superimposed on hepatic steatosis (HS) warrants non-invasive, precise tools for assessing fibrosis progression. This study leveraged machine learning (ML) to develop diagnostic models for advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in this patient population. METHODS: Treatment-naive CHB patients with concurrent HS who underwent liver biopsy in ten medical centers were enrolled as a training cohort and an independent external validation cohort (NCT05766449). Six ML models were implemented to predict advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. The final models, derived from Shapley Additive exPlanations, were compared to Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4), Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease Fibrosis Score (NFS), and Aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index (APRI) using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: Of 1,198 eligible patients, the random forest (RF) model achieved AUROCs of 0.778 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.749-0.807] for diagnosing advanced fibrosis (RF-AF model) and 0.777 (95%CI 0.748-0.806) for diagnosing cirrhosis (RF-C model) in the training cohort, and maintained high AUROCs in the validation cohort. In the training cohort, the RF-AF model obtained an AUROC of 0.825 (95% CI 0.787-0.862) in patients with HBV DNA ≥105 IU/ml, and RF-C model had an AUROC of 0.828 (95% CI 0.774-0.883) in female patients. The two models outperformed FIB-4, NFS, and APRI in the training cohort, and also performed well in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: The RF models provide reliable, non-invasive tools for identifying advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in CHB patients with concurrent HS, offering a significant advancement in the co-management of the two diseases.

Neurological manifestations and risk factors associated with poor prognosis in hospitalized children with Omicron variant infection.

There are increasing reports of neurological manifestation in children with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the frequency and clinical outcomes of in hospitalized children infected with the Omicron variant are unknown. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics, neurological manifestations, and risk factor associated with poor prognosis of hospitalized children suffering from COVID-19 due to the Omicron variant. Participants included children older than 28 days and younger than 18 years. Patients were recruited from December 10, 2022 through January 5, 2023. They were followed up for 30 days. A total of 509 pediatric patients hospitalized with the Omicron variant infection were recruited into the study. Among them, 167 (32.81%) patients had neurological manifestations. The most common manifestations were febrile convulsions (n = 90, 53.89%), viral encephalitis (n = 34, 20.36%), epilepsy (n = 23, 13.77%), hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (n = 9, 5.39%), and acute necrotizing encephalopathy (n = 6, 3.59%). At discharge, 92.81% of patients had a good prognosis according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale (scores ≥ 4). However, 7.19% had a poor prognosis. Eight patients died during the follow-up period with a cumulative 30-day mortality rate of 4.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-8.1). Multivariate analysis revealed that albumin (odds ratio 0.711, 95% CI 0.556-0.910) and creatine kinase MB (CK-MB) levels (odds ratio 1.033, 95% CI 1.004-1.063) were independent risk factors of poor prognosis due to neurological manifestations. The area under the curve for the prediction of poor prognosis with albumin and CK-MB was 0.915 (95%CI 0.799-1.000), indicating that these factors can accurately predict a poor prognosis.          Conclusion: In this study, 32.8% of hospitalized children suffering from COVID-19 due to the Omicron variant infection experienced neurological manifestations. Baseline albumin and CK-MB levels could accurately predict poor prognosis in this patient population. What is Known: • Neurological injury has been reported in SARS-CoV-2 infection; compared with other strains, the Omicron strain is more likely to cause neurological manifestations in adults. • Neurologic injury in adults such as cerebral hemorrhage and epilepsy has been reported in patients with Omicron variant infection. What is New: • One-third hospitalized children with Omicron infection experience neurological manifestations, including central nervous system manifestations and peripheral nervous system manifestations. • Albumin and CK-MB combined can accurately predict poor prognosis (AUC 0.915), and the 30-day mortality rate of children with Omicron variant infection and neurological manifestations was 4.8%.

Tenofovir Alafenamide for Pregnant Chinese Women With Active Chronic Hepatitis B: A Multicenter Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Data on long-term tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) therapy for pregnant women with active chronic hepatitis B (CHB) (immune clearance and reactivation phases, currently and previously diagnosed) and their infants are lacking. METHODS: Pregnant women with active CHB treated with TAF and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were enrolled in this multicenter prospective study, and infants received immunoprophylaxis. The primary outcomes were rates of adverse (safety) events in pregnant women and defects in infants and fetuses. The secondary outcomes were virologic responses in pregnant women, infants' safety, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) status, and growth conditions. RESULTS: One hundred three and 104 pregnant women were enrolled and 102 and 104 infants were born in the TAF and TDF groups, respectively. In the TAF group, the mean age, gestational age, alanine aminotransferase level, and viral loads at treatment initiation were 29.3 years, 1.3 weeks, 122.2 U/L, and 5.1 log10 IU/mL, respectively. TAF was well-tolerated, and the most common adverse event was nausea (29.1%) during a mean of 2 years of treatment. Notably, 1 (1.0%) TAF-treated pregnant woman underwent induced abortion due to noncausal fetal cleft lip and palate. No infants in either group had birth defects. In the TAF group, the hepatitis B e antigen seroconversion rate was 20.7% at postpartum month 6, infants had normal growth parameters, and no infants were positive for HBsAg at 7 months. The TDF group had comparable safety and effectiveness profiles. CONCLUSIONS: TAF administered throughout or beginning in early pregnancy is generally safe and effective for pregnant women with active CHB and their infants.

Sofosbuvir-based therapy for late pregnant women and infants with severe chronic hepatitis C: A case series study.

Data on sofosbuvir-based therapy for pregnant women and infants with severe chronic hepatitis C (CHC) are lacking. Two late pregnant women and one female infant with severe CHC were enrolled for treatment. Pregnant Women 1 and 2 and Infant 3 were 30, 33, and 1.2 years old, respectively; the gestational ages of pregnant Women 1 and 2 were 31 and 26 weeks, respectively. Notably, pregnant Women 1 and 2 and Infant 3 had hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA levels of 139 000, 198 000, and 8 450 000 IU/ml; alanine aminotransferase levels of 420, 781, and 220 U/L; and received sofosbuvir/ledipasvir, sofosbuvir/velpatasvir, and sofosbuvir/ledipasvir for 12 weeks, respectively. All three patients were safely cured with favorable tolerance, and two newborns were both breastfeeding and were consistently negative for the anti-HCV antibody during the 1-year follow-up after birth. Additionally, two newborns and Infant 3 had normal growth parameters during the follow-up year one. In conclusion, this case series study found that sofosbuvir-based therapy for pregnant women and infants with severe CHC is safe and effective. The data may fill the gap and provide evidence of the use of sofosbuvir-based therapy as a reference when similar severe CHC situations are encountered during clinical practice.

Safety and immunogenicity of COVID-19 vaccination in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (CHESS-NMCID 2101): A multicenter prospective study.

Data on safety and immunogenicity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccinations in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients are limited. In this multicenter prospective study, HCC patients received two doses of inactivated whole-virion COVID-19 vaccines. The safety and neutralizing antibody were monitored. Totally, 74 patients were enrolled from 10 centers in China, and 37 (50.0%), 25 (33.8%), and 12 (16.2%) received the CoronaVac, BBIBP-CorV, and WIBP-CorV, respectively. The vaccines were well tolerated, where pain at the injection site (6.8% [5/74]) and anorexia (2.7% [2/74]) were the most frequent local and systemic adverse events. The median level of neutralizing antibody was 13.5 (interquartile range [IQR]: 6.9-23.2) AU/ml at 45 (IQR: 19-72) days after the second dose of vaccinations, and 60.8% (45/74) of patients had positive neutralizing antibody. Additionally, lower γ-glutamyl transpeptidase level was related to positive neutralizing antibody (odds ratio = 1.022 [1.003-1.049], p = 0.049). In conclusion, this study found that inactivated COVID-19 vaccinations are safe and the immunogenicity is acceptable or hyporesponsive in patients with HCC. Given that the potential benefits may outweigh the risks and the continuing emergences of novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants, we suggest HCC patients to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Future validation studies are warranted.

Tenofovir Alafenamide to Prevent Perinatal Hepatitis B Transmission: A Multicenter, Prospective, Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Few safety and effectiveness results have been published regarding the administration of tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF) during pregnancy for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of hepatitis B virus (HBV). METHODS: In this multicenter prospective observational study, pregnant women with HBV DNA levels higher than 200 000 IU/mL who received TAF or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) from gestational weeks 24-35 to delivery were 1:1 enrolled and followed until postpartum month 6. Infants received immunoprophylaxis. The primary endpoint was the safety of mothers and infants. The secondary endpoint was the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive rate at 7 months for infants. RESULTS: In total, 116 and 116 mothers were enrolled, and 117 and 116 infants were born, in the TAF and TDF groups, respectively. TAF was well tolerated during a mean treatment duration of 11.0 weeks. The most common maternal adverse event was nausea (19.0%). One (0.9%), 3 (2.6%), and 9 (7.8%) mothers had abnormal alanine aminotransferase levels at delivery and at postpartum months 3 and 6, respectively. The TDF group had safety profiles that were comparable to those of the TAF group. No infants had birth defects in either group. The infants' physical and neurological development at birth and at 7 months in the TAF group were comparable with those in the TDF group. The HBsAg positive rate was 0% at 7 months in all 233 infants. CONCLUSIONS: Antiviral prophylaxis with TAF was determined to be generally safe for both mothers and infants and reduced the MTCT rate to 0%.

Dynamic changes in liver function parameters in patients with coronavirus disease 2019: a multicentre, retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Liver injuries have been reported in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study aimed to investigate the clinical role played by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: In this multicentre, retrospective study, the parameters of liver function tests in COVID-19 inpatients were compared between various time-points in reference to SARS-CoV-2 shedding, and 3 to 7 days before the first detection of viral shedding was regarded as the reference baseline. RESULTS: In total, 70 COVID-19 inpatients were enrolled. Twenty-two (31.4%) patients had a self-medication history after illness. At baseline, 10 (14.3%), 7 (10%), 9 (12.9%), 2 (2.9%), 15 (21.4%), and 4 (5.7%) patients already had abnormal alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), albumin, and total bilirubin (TBIL) values, respectively. ALT and AST abnormal rates and levels did not show any significant dynamic changes during the full period of viral shedding (all p > 0.05). The GGT abnormal rate (p = 0.008) and level (p = 0.033) significantly increased on day 10 of viral shedding. Meanwhile, no simultaneous significant increases in abnormal ALP rates and levels were observed. TBIL abnormal rates and levels significantly increased on days 1 and 5 of viral shedding (all p < 0.05). Albumin abnormal decrease rates increased, and levels decreased consistently from baseline to SARS-CoV-2 clearance day (all p < 0.05). Thirteen (18.6%) patients had chronic liver disease, two of whom died. The ALT and AST abnormal rates and levels did not increase in patients with chronic liver disease during SARS-CoV-2 shedding. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 does not directly lead to elevations in ALT and AST but may result in elevations in GGT and TBIL; albumin decreased extraordinarily even when SARS-CoV-2 shedding ended.

Effect of Convalescent Plasma Therapy on Viral Shedding and Survival in Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019.

Currently, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has been reported in almost all countries globally. No effective therapy has been documented for COVID-19, and the role of convalescent plasma therapy is unknown. In the current study, 6 patients with COVID-19 and respiratory failure received convalescent plasma a median of 21.5 days after viral shedding was first detected, all tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 RNA within 3 days after infusion, and 5 eventually died. In conclusion, convalescent plasma treatment can end SARS-CoV-2 shedding but cannot reduce the mortality rate in critically ill patients with end-stage COVID-19, and treatment should be initiated earlier.

IL-17A-mediated ERK1/2/p65 signaling pathway is associated with cell apoptosis after non-alcoholic steatohepatitis.

Interleukin (IL)-17A is pro-inflammatory cytokine which has been identified as a noninvasive marker of the pathogenesis of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). However, the underlying role of IL-17A in NASH progression remains unclear. This study was designed to investigate the biological function and molecular mechanism of IL-17A in the induction of NASH. The results showed that IL-17A was highly expressed in high-fat diet (HFD)-induced NASH mouse model. Intravenous injection of IL-17A exacerbated steatohepatitis process via promoting hepatocyte apoptosis. Furthermore, IL-17A-induced apoptosis was mediated by ERK1/2/p65 signaling pathway. In conclusion, we demonstrated that IL-17A-mediated ERK1/2/p65 signaling pathway was a promising target for the treatment of NASH. © 2018 IUBMB Life, 71(3):302-309, 2019.

MiR-19a Affects Hepatocyte Autophagy via Regulating lncRNA NBR2 and AMPK/PPARα in D-GalN/Lipopolysaccharide-Stimulated Hepatocytes.

This study aims to evaluate the potential involvement and regulatory mechanism of miR-19a in hepatocytes autophagy of acute liver failure (ALF). The in vitro hepatocytes injury model of primary hepatocyte and hepatocytes line HL-7702 was established by D-galactosamine (D-GalN) and lipopolysaccharide (LPS) co-treatment. Relative expression level of miR-19a and NBR2 was determined by qRT-PCR. Protein expression of AMPK/PPARα and autophagy-related gene was determined by Western blot. In hepatic tissue of 20 ALF patients and D-GalN/LPS-stimulated hepatocytes, miR-19a was upregulated and NBR2 was downregulated. D-GalN/LPS stimulation caused the inactivation of AMPK/PPARα signaling and the decrease of autophagy-related LC3-II/LC3-I ratio and beclin-1 expression in hepatocytes. The expression of both AMPK/PPARα and NBR2 were negatively controlled by miR-19a overexpression or knockdown. Moreover, both NBR2 and PPARα were targeted regulated by miR-19a according to luciferase reporter assay. In D-GalN/LPS-stimulated hepatocytes, AMPK activation promoted PPARα expression. AMPK inactivation inhibited the pro-autophagy effect of miR-19a and caused the decrease of LC3-II/LC3-I ratio and beclin-1 expression. PPARα activation abrogated the anti-autophagy effect of miR-19a mimic and caused the increase of LC3-II/LC3-I ratio and beclin-1 expression. NBR2 knockdown reversed the anti-autophagy impact of miR-19a inhibitor and caused the decrease of LC3-II/LC3-I ratio and beclin-1 expression. In summary, our data suggested that miR-19a negatively controlled the autophagy of hepatocytes attenuated in D-GalN/LPS-stimulated hepatocytes via regulating NBR2 and AMPK/PPARα signaling. J. Cell. Biochem. 119: 358-365, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

AMPK activation ameliorates D-GalN/LPS-induced acute liver failure by upregulating Foxo3A to induce autophagy.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Acute liver failure (ALF) is an uncommon but serious disease still carrying a high mortality. This study aimed to investigate the mechanism of AMPK on D-GalN/LPS-induced ALF. METHODS: In this study, we utilized intraperitoneal injection of D-GalN/LPS to induce ALF model, and analyzed the expression of AMPK, inflammatory cytokines (TNF-α, IL-1ß and IL-6), Foxo3A and autophagy-related genes (Atg-5, Beclin-1, Atg-7) by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in liver tissue. We also examined the level of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) in serum of ALF mice. AMPK activation and inhibition of autophagy were induced by AICAR and 3-MA, respectively. Silence and overexpression of Foxo3A were performed by si-Foxo3A and pcDNA-Foxo3A, respectively. Lastly, the BMDM-conditioned medium (BMDM-CM) derived from BMDMs treated with AICAR and LPS were used to explore the effect of AMPK and Foxo3A on hepatocytes. RESULT: The expression of AMPK was decreased in liver tissue and the level of ALT and AST were increased in serum of D-GalN/LPS-induced ALF mice. AMPK activation ameliorated ALF by inhibiting inflammation (downregulated TNF-α, IL-1ß and IL-6 expression), activating autophagy (increased Atg-5, Beclin-1 and Atg-7 expression) and upregulating Foxo3A expression. Silence of Foxo3A decreased AMPK-activated autophagy, but overexpressing Foxo3A attenuated liver failure by activating autophagy. In addition, AMPK activation alleviated liver failure in vitro. CONCLUSION: Thus, AMPK/Foxo3A/autophagy pathway may be an effective treatment approach to ameliorate ALF.

Generic ledipasvir-sofosbuvir for patients with chronic hepatitis C: A real-life observational study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Few patients from developing countries can afford brand name direct-acting antiviral agents for treating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, and controversy regarding the bioequivalence of generics exists. This study aimed to observe the safety and efficacy of 8 or 12weeks of generic ledipasvir-sofosbuvir with or without ribavirin for Chinese genotype 1b HCV-infected patients. METHODS: In this open-labelled observational study, 63 cirrhotic (group 1) and 65 non-cirrhotic (group 2) patients were administered generic ledipasvir-sofosbuvir plus 1000-1200mg of ribavirin daily for 12 and 8weeks, respectively; and 64 non-cirrhotic patients (group 3) received ledipasvir-sofosbuvir for 8weeks. The primary efficacy endpoint was undetectable HCV RNA at week 12 (SVR12) after cessation of therapy. Safety and pharmacokinetic data were collected. RESULTS: One hundred and eighty-seven patients completed treatment, and the latest undetectable HCV RNA was observed in three patients with cirrhosis at week 5 during treatment. Intention-to-treat analysis revealed 96.8% (61/63), 96.9% (63/65), and 96.9% (62/64) of SVR12 rates in groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively. One patient in group 3 relapsed at post-treatment week 4. The regimens were generally well-tolerated. The most common adverse events were fatigue (17.8%), diarrhea (10.9%), and headache (9.9%). Four patients discontinued therapy due to diarrhea and vomiting. One patient from group 2 discontinued treatment on day 29 because of drug-unaffordability; fortunately, she achieved SVR12. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that 8 or 12weeks of generic ledipasvir-sofosbuvir with or without ribavirin are safe and effective for patients with genotype 1b HCV infection. LAY SUMMARY: The price of Harvoni® has led to restrictions and access limitations in many developing and even developed countries with limited healthcare budgets. Gilead approved generic ledipasvir-sofosbuvir costs far less than Harvoni® and presents a similar cure rate for patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Upregulation of OX40 ligand on monocytes contributes to early virological control in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Dysfunctional hepatitis C virus (HCV) specific CD4(+) T cells are known to contribute to inadequate adaptive immunity in chronic hepatitis C (CHC), although the underlying mechanisms remain largely undefined. In this study, OX40 ligand (OX40L) expression was investigated in 41 treatment-naïve CHC patients, 20 sustained virological responders and 36 healthy subjects. We observed that OX40L expression was significantly upregulated in peripheral monocytes in CHC patients compared with sustained virological responders and healthy subjects. OX40L upregulation correlated significantly with plasma viral load rather than serum alanine aminotransaminase levels. Furthermore, longitudinal analyses indicated that upregulated OX40L expression on monocytes is closely associated with rapid or early virological responses in patients receiving pegylated IFN-α/ribavirin treatment. In vitro, HCV core antigen strongly stimulated monocyte expression of OX40L and blockade of TLR2 signaling significantly downregulated OX40L expression. More importantly, elevated OX40L expression was also shown to be closely associated with elevation of the HCV-specific CD4(+) T-cell response and in vitro blockade of OX40L expressed on monocytes led to impaired CD4(+) T-cell function. These findings, therefore, implicate OX40L expression can be used as a marker to evaluate antiviral treatment efficacy and extend the notion that enhancement of OX40L expression could be a good way for immunotherapy in CHC patients.

Interleukin-21 mediates hepatitis B virus-associated liver cirrhosis by activating hepatic stellate cells.

AIM: Interleukin-21 (IL-21) is involved in effective primary hepatic immune response against hepatitis B virus (HBV) and profibrotic function. However, the role of IL-21 in HBV-associated liver cirrhosis is poorly understood. This study aimed to investigate the role of IL-21 in HBV-associated liver cirrhosis and possible mechanisms. METHODS: The study subjects included 10 healthy controls and 30 patients with HBV-associated liver cirrhosis that categorized into three subgroups based on Child-Pugh score (A, 13; B, 10; C, 7). The frequencies of IL-21(+) CD4(+) T cells were detected by flow cytometry, and the level of IL-21 in plasma was measured by enzyme-linked immunoassay. The distribution of IL-21(+) cells in situ in liver was observed by immunohistochemistry. In addition, the in vitro expression of α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA), apoptosis and proliferation markers of LX-2 cells were examined by flow cytometry and Cell Counting Kit-8 kit. Finally, the collagen levels in the supernatant were measured by chemiluminescence. RESULTS: Increased peripheral number of IL-21(+) CD4(+) cells, elevated plasma level of IL-21 and IL-21(+) cell accumulation in liver were observed in patients with HBV-associated liver cirrhosis. In vitro administration of IL-21 was accompanied with increased expression of α-SMA, inhibited LX-2 cells apoptosis and upregulated collagen production by LX-2 cells. CONCLUSION: IL-21 may contribute to the fibrogenesis of HBV-associated liver cirrhosis by activating the hepatic stellate cells. Therefore, neutralization of IL-21 could be a favorable new therapeutic strategy for liver cirrhosis treatment.

Sex disparities of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality among patients living with tuberculosis in the United States.

Background: We aimed to determine the trend of TB-related deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: TB-related mortality data of decedents aged ≥25 years from 2006 to 2021 were analyzed. Excess deaths were estimated by determining the difference between observed and projected mortality rates during the pandemic. Results: A total of 18,628 TB-related deaths were documented from 2006 to 2021. TB-related age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were 0.51 in 2020 and 0.52 in 2021, corresponding to an excess mortality of 10.22 and 9.19%, respectively. Female patients with TB demonstrated a higher relative increase in mortality (26.33 vs. 2.17% in 2020; 21.48 vs. 3.23% in 2021) when compared to male. Female aged 45-64 years old showed a surge in mortality, with an annual percent change (APC) of -2.2% pre-pandemic to 22.8% (95% CI: -1.7 to 68.7%) during the pandemic, corresponding to excess mortalities of 62.165 and 99.16% in 2020 and 2021, respectively; these excess mortality rates were higher than those observed in the overall female population ages 45-64 years in 2020 (17.53%) and 2021 (33.79%). Conclusion: The steady decline in TB-related mortality in the United States has been reversed by COVID-19. Female with TB were disproportionately affected by the pandemic.

LiverRisk score: An accurate, cost-effective tool to predict fibrosis, liver-related, and diabetes-related mortality in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive and early assessment of liver fibrosis is of great significance and is challenging. We aimed to evaluate the predictive performance and cost-effectiveness of the LiverRisk score for liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population. METHODS: The general population from the NHANES 2017-March 2020, NHANES 1999-2018, and UK Biobank 2006-2010 were included in the cross-sectional cohort (n = 3,770), along with the NHANES follow-up cohort (n = 25,317) and the UK Biobank follow-up cohort (n = 17,259). The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using TreeAge Pro software. Liver stiffness measurements ≥10 kPa were defined as compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). FINDINGS: Compared to conventional scores, the LiverRisk score had significantly better accuracy and calibration in predicting liver fibrosis, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.76 (0.72-0.79) for cACLD. According to the updated thresholds of LiverRisk score (6 and 10), we reclassified the population into three groups: low, medium, and high risk. The AUCs of LiverRisk score for predicting liver-related and diabetes-related mortality at 5, 10, and 15 years were all above 0.8, with better performance than the Fibrosis-4 score. Furthermore, compared to the low-risk group, the medium-risk and high-risk groups in the two follow-up cohorts had a significantly higher risk of liver-related and diabetes-related mortality. Finally, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for LiverRisk score compared to FIB-4 was USD $18,170 per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: The LiverRisk score is an accurate, cost-effective tool to predict liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population. FUNDING: The National Natural Science Foundation of China (nos. 82330060, 92059202, and 92359304); the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province (BE2023767a); the Fundamental Research Fund of Southeast University (3290002303A2); Changjiang Scholars Talent Cultivation Project of Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University (2023YJXYYRCPY03); and the Research Personnel Cultivation Program of Zhongda Hospital Southeast University (CZXM-GSP-RC125).

Development of a machine learning-based model to predict hepatic inflammation in chronic hepatitis B patients with concurrent hepatic steatosis: a cohort study.

Background: With increasingly prevalent coexistence of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and hepatic steatosis (HS), simple, non-invasive diagnostic methods to accurately assess the severity of hepatic inflammation are needed. We aimed to build a machine learning (ML) based model to detect hepatic inflammation in patients with CHB and concurrent HS. Methods: We conducted a multicenter, retrospective cohort study in China. Treatment-naive CHB patients with biopsy-proven HS between April 2004 and September 2022 were included. The optimal features for model development were selected by SHapley Additive explanations, and an ML algorithm with the best accuracy to diagnose moderate to severe hepatic inflammation (Scheuer's system ≥ G3) was determined and assessed by decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curve. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05766449). Findings: From a pool of 1,787 treatment-naive patients with CHB and HS across eleven hospitals, 689 patients from nine of these hospitals were chosen for the development of the diagnostic model. The remaining two hospitals contributed to two independent external validation cohorts, comprising 509 patients in validation cohort 1 and 589 in validation cohort 2. Eleven features regarding inflammation, hepatic and metabolic functions were identified. The gradient boosting classifier (GBC) model showed the best performance in predicting moderate to severe hepatic inflammation, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.86 (95% CI 0.83-0.88) in the training cohort, and 0.89 (95% CI 0.86-0.92), 0.76 (95% CI 0.73-0.80) in the first and second external validation cohorts, respectively. A publicly accessible web tool was generated for the model. Interpretation: Using simple parameters, the GBC model predicted hepatic inflammation in CHB patients with concurrent HS. It holds promise for guiding clinical management and improving patient outcomes. Funding: This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82170609, 81970545), Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (Major Project) (No. ZR2020KH006), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (No.BK20231118), Tianjin Key Medical Discipline (Specialty), Construction Project, TJYXZDXK-059B, Tianjin Health Science and Technology Project key discipline special, TJWJ2022XK034, and Research project of Chinese traditional medicine and Chinese traditional medicine combined with Western medicine of Tianjin municipal health and Family Planning Commission (2021022).

Carvedilol to prevent hepatic decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by new non-invasive model (CHESS2306).

Background & Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model. Methods: Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvedilol-treating cohort. Results: In the meta-analysis with six studies (n = 819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new "CSPH risk" model. In the HVPG cohort (n = 151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and -0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n = 1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <-0.68 (low-risk), -0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvedilol-treated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n = 81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n = 613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n = 162 after PSM). Conclusions: Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.