External Validation and Clinical Usefulness of First Trimester Prediction Models for the Risk of Preeclampsia: A Prospective Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: This study assessed the external validity of all published first trimester prediction models for the risk of preeclampsia (PE) based on routinely collected maternal predictors. Moreover, the potential utility of the best-performing models in clinical practice was evaluated. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Ten prediction models were systematically selected from the literature. We performed a multicenter prospective cohort study in the Netherlands between July 1, 2013, and December 31, 2015. Eligible pregnant women completed a web-based questionnaire before 16 weeks' gestation. The outcome PE was established using postpartum questionnaires and medical records. Predictive performance of each model was assessed by means of discrimination (c-statistic) and a calibration plot. Clinical usefulness was evaluated by means of decision curve analysis and by calculating the potential impact at different risk thresholds. RESULTS: The validation cohort contained 2,614 women of whom 76 developed PE (2.9%). Five models showed moderate discriminative performance with c-statistics ranging from 0.73 to 0.77. Adequate calibration was obtained after refitting. The best models were clinically useful over a small range of predicted probabilities. DISCUSSION: Five of the ten included first trimester prediction models for PE showed moderate predictive performance. The best models may provide more benefit compared to risk selection as used in current guidelines.

Mood disturbances during combined oral contraceptive use and the effect of androgen supplementation. Results of a double-blind, placebo-controlled, single-case alternation design pilot study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of androgen supplementation in healthy combined oral contraceptive (COC) users who experience mood disturbances during COC-use only. METHODS: Six women with mood disturbances during COC-use only, received COC with co-treatment of 50 mg dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) during three cycles and placebo during another three cycles in an individualized random order. Daily mood rating was measured by a single item: 'In what kind of mood have you been in the past 24 h?' The results were analysed using a randomisation test for single-case experimental designs. RESULTS: The p values for the alternation design randomisation tests on the raw data of the six healthy individuals varied between 0.21 and 1, indicating that the average daily mood ratings of the active treatment DHEA are not statistically significantly larger than the average daily mood ratings of placebo. The combined p value of the subjects using a DRSP-containing pill was 0.97, and of the subjects using an LNG-containing pill was 0.65, indicating no statistically significant treatment effect for any of the pill types. CONCLUSIONS: In this single-case alternation design study, concomitant treatment with DHEA for intermittent periods of 4 weeks did not result in improvement of mood disturbances related to COC-use, but had also no side-effects.