Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis-based Universal Thermal Climate Index on mortality data in Europe.

Air temperature has been the most commonly used exposure metric in assessing relationships between thermal stress and mortality. Lack of the high-quality meteorological station data necessary to adequately characterize the thermal environment has been one of the main limitations for the use of more complex thermal indices. Global climate reanalyses may provide an ideal platform to overcome this limitation and define complex heat and cold stress conditions anywhere in the world. In this study, we explored the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) based on ERA5 - the latest global climate reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) - as a health-related tool. Employing a novel ERA5-based thermal comfort dataset ERA5-HEAT, we investigated the relationships between the UTCI and daily mortality data in 21 cities across 9 European countries. We used distributed lag nonlinear models to assess exposure-response relationships between mortality and thermal conditions in individual cities. We then employed meta-regression models to pool the results for each city into four groups according to climate zone. To evaluate the performance of ERA5-based UTCI, we compared its effects on mortality with those for the station-based UTCI data. In order to assess the additional effect of the UTCI, the performance of ERA5-and station-based air temperature (T) was evaluated. Whilst generally similar heat- and cold-effects were observed for the ERA5-and station-based data in most locations, the important role of wind in the UTCI appeared in the results. The largest difference between any two datasets was found in the Southern European group of cities, where the relative risk of mortality at the 1st percentile of daily mean temperature distribution (1.29 and 1.30 according to the ERA5 vs station data, respectively) considerably exceeded the one for the daily mean UTCI (1.19 vs 1.22). These differences were mainly due to the effect of wind in the cold tail of the UTCI distribution. The comparison of exposure-response relationships between ERA5-and station-based data shows that ERA5-based UTCI may be a useful tool for definition of life-threatening thermal conditions in locations where high-quality station data are not available.

Augmented human thermal discomfort in urban centers of the Arabian Peninsula.

Anthropogenic climate change has amplified human thermal discomfort in urban environments. Despite the considerable risks posed to public health, there is a lack of comprehensive research, evaluating the spatiotemporal changes in human thermal discomfort and its characteristics in hot-hyper arid regions, such as the Arabian Peninsula (AP). The current study analyzes spatiotemporal changes in human thermal discomfort categories and their characteristics in AP, using the newly developed high-resolution gridded ERA5-HEAT (Human thErmAl comforT) dataset for the period 1979-2022. In addition, the study assesses the interplay between the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices for the study period. The results reveal a significant increase in human thermal discomfort and its characteristics, with higher spatial variability in the AP region. The major urban centers in the southwestern, central, and southeastern parts of AP have experienced significant increases in human thermal discomfort (0.4-0.8 °C), with higher frequency and intensity of thermal stress during the study period. The temporal distribution demonstrates a linear increase in UTCI indices and their frequencies and intensities, particularly from 1998 onward, signifying a transition towards a hotter climate characterized by frequent, intense, and prolonged heat stress conditions. Moreover, the UTCI and ENSO indices exhibit a dipole pattern of correlation with a positive (negative) pattern in the southwestern (eastern parts) of AP. The study's findings suggest that policymakers and urban planners need to prioritize public health and well-being in AP's urban areas, especially for vulnerable groups, by implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, and carefully designing future cities to mitigate the effects of heat stress.

Feasibility of climate reanalysis data as a proxy for onsite weather measurements in outdoor thermal comfort surveys.

Outdoor thermal comfort (OTC) surveys require synchronous monitoring of meteorological variables for direct comparisons against subjective thermal perception. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is a feasible index as it integrates meteorological conditions as a single value irrespective of urban morphological attributes or biological sex, age and body mass. ERA5-HEAT (Human thErmAl comforT) is a downloadable reanalysis dataset providing hourly grids of UTCI climate records at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution from 1979 to present. We here evaluate for the first time whether it is possible to use ERA5-HEAT data as a proxy for the UTCI measured onsite during OTC surveys. A dataset comprising 1640 survey responses gathered over 14 OTC campaigns in Curitiba, Brazil (25°26'S, 49°16'W) was analysed. We assessed the bias obtained between the Dynamic Thermal Sensation, an index derived from the UTCI, and the thermal sensation reported by survey participants by considering locally measured meteorological variables and ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data. As ERA5-HEAT data are given on an hourly basis, prediction bias can be greatly reduced when accounting for survey responses close to the hour. In terms of seasons, the fall and winter seasons have diminished mean bias, though with larger spread than in summer. In terms of UTCI stress categories, prediction bias is lower for the thermal comfort range. When comparing reanalysis data against WMO station data as proxy candidates for survey field data, the former presented lower bias, less spread in terms of standard deviation and higher correlation to in situ data.