Decoupling of bird migration from the changing phenology of spring green-up.

The green-up of vegetation in spring brings a pulse of food resources that many animals track during migration. However, green-up phenology is changing with climate change, posing an immense challenge for species that time their migrations to coincide with these resource pulses. We evaluated changes in green-up phenology from 2002 to 2021 in relation to the migrations of 150 Western-Hemisphere bird species using eBird citizen science data. We found that green-up phenology has changed within bird migration routes, and yet the migrations of most species align more closely with long-term averages of green-up than with current conditions. Changing green-up strongly influenced phenological mismatches, especially for longer-distance migrants. These results reveal that bird migration may have limited flexibility to adjust to changing vegetation phenology and emphasize the mounting challenge migratory animals face in following en route resources in a changing climate.

Climate change is poised to alter mountain stream ecosystem processes via organismal phenological shifts.

Climate change is affecting the phenology of organisms and ecosystem processes across a wide range of environments. However, the links between organismal and ecosystem process change in complex communities remain uncertain. In snow-dominated watersheds, snowmelt in the spring and early summer, followed by a long low-flow period, characterizes the natural flow regime of streams and rivers. Here, we examined how earlier snowmelt will alter the phenology of mountain stream organisms and ecosystem processes via an outdoor mesocosm experiment in stream channels in the Eastern Sierra Nevada, California. The low-flow treatment, simulating a 3- to 6-wk earlier return to summer baseflow conditions projected under climate change scenarios in the region, increased water temperature and reduced biofilm production to respiration ratios by 32%. Additionally, most of the invertebrate species explaining community change (56% and 67% of the benthic and emergent taxa, respectively), changed in phenology as a consequence of the low-flow treatment. Further, emergent flux pulses of the dominant insect group (Chironomidae) almost doubled in magnitude, benefitting a generalist riparian predator. Changes in both invertebrate community structure (composition) and functioning (production) were mostly fine-scale, and response diversity at the community level stabilized seasonally aggregated responses. Our study illustrates how climate change in vulnerable mountain streams at the rain-to-snow transition is poised to alter the dynamics of stream food webs via fine-scale changes in phenology-leading to novel predator-prey "matches" or "mismatches" even when community structure and ecosystem processes appear stable at the annual scale.

Species invasions shift microbial phenology in a two-decade freshwater time series.

Invasive species impart abrupt changes on ecosystems, but their impacts on microbial communities are often overlooked. We paired a 20 y freshwater microbial community time series with zooplankton and phytoplankton counts, rich environmental data, and a 6 y cyanotoxin time series. We observed strong microbial phenological patterns that were disrupted by the invasions of spiny water flea (Bythotrephes cederströmii) and zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha). First, we detected shifts in Cyanobacteria phenology. After the spiny water flea invasion, Cyanobacteria dominance crept earlier into clearwater; and after the zebra mussel invasion, Cyanobacteria abundance crept even earlier into the diatom-dominated spring. During summer, the spiny water flea invasion sparked a cascade of shifting diversity where zooplankton diversity decreased and Cyanobacteria diversity increased. Second, we detected shifts in cyanotoxin phenology. After the zebra mussel invasion, microcystin increased in early summer and the duration of toxin production increased by over a month. Third, we observed shifts in heterotrophic bacteria phenology. The Bacteroidota phylum and members of the acI Nanopelagicales lineage were differentially more abundant. The proportion of the bacterial community that changed differed by season; spring and clearwater communities changed most following the spiny water flea invasion that lessened clearwater intensity, while summer communities changed least following the zebra mussel invasion despite the shifts in Cyanobacteria diversity and toxicity. A modeling framework identified the invasions as primary drivers of the observed phenological changes. These long-term invasion-mediated shifts in microbial phenology demonstrate the interconnectedness of microbes with the broader food web and their susceptibility to long-term environmental change.

Habitat fragmentation decouples fire-stimulated flowering from plant reproductive fitness.

Many plant species in historically fire-dependent ecosystems exhibit fire-stimulated flowering. While greater reproductive effort after fire is expected to result in increased reproductive outcomes, seed production often depends on pollination, the spatial distribution of prospective mates, and the timing of their reproductive activity. Fire-stimulated flowering may thus have limited fitness benefits in small, isolated populations where mating opportunities are restricted and pollination rates are low. We conducted a 6-y study of 6,357 Echinacea angustifolia (Asteraceae) individuals across 35 remnant prairies in Minnesota (USA) to experimentally evaluate how fire effects on multiple components of reproduction vary with population size in a common species. Fire increased annual reproductive effort across populations, doubling the proportion of plants in flower and increasing the number of flower heads 65% per plant. In contrast, fire's influence on reproductive outcomes differed between large and small populations, reflecting the density-dependent effects of fire on spatiotemporal mating potential and pollination. In populations with fewer than 20 individuals, fire did not consistently increase pollination or annual seed production. Above this threshold, fire increased mating potential, leading to a 24% increase in seed set and a 71% increase in annual seed production. Our findings suggest that density-dependent effects of fire on pollination largely determine plant reproductive outcomes and could influence population dynamics across fire-dependent systems. Failure to account for the density-dependent effects of fire on seed production may lead us to overestimate the beneficial effects of fire on plant demography and the capacity of fire to maintain plant diversity, especially in fragmented habitats.

Demographic consequences of phenological asynchrony for North American songbirds.

Changes in phenology in response to ongoing climate change have been observed in numerous taxa around the world. Differing rates of phenological shifts across trophic levels have led to concerns that ecological interactions may become increasingly decoupled in time, with potential negative consequences for populations. Despite widespread evidence of phenological change and a broad body of supporting theory, large-scale multitaxa evidence for demographic consequences of phenological asynchrony remains elusive. Using data from a continental-scale bird-banding program, we assess the impact of phenological dynamics on avian breeding productivity in 41 species of migratory and resident North American birds breeding in and around forested areas. We find strong evidence for a phenological optimum where breeding productivity decreases in years with both particularly early or late phenology and when breeding occurs early or late relative to local vegetation phenology. Moreover, we demonstrate that landbird breeding phenology did not keep pace with shifts in the timing of vegetation green-up over a recent 18-y period, even though avian breeding phenology has tracked green-up with greater sensitivity than arrival for migratory species. Species whose breeding phenology more closely tracked green-up tend to migrate shorter distances (or are resident over the entire year) and breed earlier in the season. These results showcase the broadest-scale evidence yet of the demographic impacts of phenological change. Future climate change-associated phenological shifts will likely result in a decrease in breeding productivity for most species, given that bird breeding phenology is failing to keep pace with climate change.

Age-dependent seasonal growth cessation in Populus.

In temperate and boreal regions, perennial plants adapt their annual growth cycle to the change of seasons. In natural forests, juvenile seedlings usually display longer growth seasons compared to adult trees to ensure their establishment and survival under canopy shade. However, how trees adjust their annual growth according to their age is not known. In this study, we show that age-dependent seasonal growth cessation is genetically controlled and found that the miR156-SPL3/5 module, a key regulon of vegetative phase change (VPC), also triggers age-dependent growth cessation in Populus trees. We show that miR156 promotes shoot elongation during vegetative growth, and its targets SPL3/5s function in the same pathway but as repressors. We find that the miR156-SPL3/5s regulon controls growth cessation in both leaves and shoot apices and through multiple pathways, but with a different mechanism compared to how the miR156-SPL regulon controls VPC in annual plants. Taken together, our results reveal an age-dependent genetic network in mediating seasonal growth cessation, a key phenological process in the climate adaptation of perennial trees.

Decadal migration phenology of a long-lived Arctic icon keeps pace with climate change.

Animals migrate in response to seasonal environments, to reproduce, to benefit from resource pulses, or to avoid fluctuating hazards. Although climate change is predicted to modify migration, only a few studies to date have demonstrated phenological shifts in marine mammals. In the Arctic, marine mammals are considered among the most sensitive to ongoing climate change due to their narrow habitat preferences and long life spans. Longevity may prove an obstacle for species to evolutionarily respond. For species that exhibit high site fidelity and strong associations with migration routes, adjusting the timing of migration is one of the few recourses available to respond to a changing climate. Here, we demonstrate evidence of significant delays in the timing of narwhal autumn migrations with satellite tracking data spanning 21 y from the Canadian Arctic. Measures of migration phenology varied annually and were explained by sex and climate drivers associated with ice conditions, suggesting that narwhals are adopting strategic migration tactics. Male narwhals were found to lead the migration out of the summering areas, while females, potentially with dependent young, departed later. Narwhals are remaining longer in their summer areas at a rate of 10 d per decade, a similar rate to that observed for climate-driven sea ice loss across the region. The consequences of altered space use and timing have yet to be evaluated but will expose individuals to increasing natural changes and anthropogenic activities on the summering areas.

Woody species do not differ in dormancy progression: Differences in time to budbreak due to forcing and cold hardiness.

Budbreak is one of the most observed and studied phenological phases in perennial plants, but predictions remain a challenge, largely due to our poor understanding of dormancy. Two dimensions of exposure to temperature are generally used to model budbreak: accumulation of time spent at low temperatures (chilling) and accumulation of heat units (forcing). These two effects have a well-established negative correlation; with more chilling, less forcing is required for budbreak. Furthermore, temperate plant species are assumed to vary in chilling requirements for dormancy completion allowing proper budbreak. Here, dormancy is investigated from the cold hardiness standpoint across many species, demonstrating that it should be accounted for to study dormancy and accurately predict budbreak. Most cold hardiness is lost prior to budbreak, but rates of cold hardiness loss (deacclimation) vary among species, leading to different times to budbreak. Within a species, deacclimation rate increases with accumulation of chill. When inherent differences between species in deacclimation rate are accounted for by normalizing rates throughout winter by the maximum rate observed, a standardized deacclimation potential is produced. Deacclimation potential is a quantitative measurement of dormancy progression based on responsiveness to forcing as chill accumulates, which increases similarly for all species, contradicting estimations of dormancy transition based on budbreak assays. This finding indicates that comparisons of physiologic and genetic control of dormancy require an understanding of cold hardiness dynamics. Thus, an updated framework for studying dormancy and its effects on spring phenology is suggested where cold hardiness in lieu of (or in addition to) budbreak is used.

Genome-wide methylome stability and parental effects in the worldwide distributed Lombardy poplar.

BACKGROUND: Despite the increasing number of epigenomic studies in plants, little is known about the forces that shape the methylome in long-lived woody perennials. The Lombardy poplar offers an ideal opportunity to investigate the impact of the individual environmental history of trees on the methylome. RESULTS: We present the results of three interconnected experiments on Lombardy poplar. In the first experiment, we investigated methylome variability during a growing season and across vegetatively reproduced generations. We found that ramets collected over Europe and raised in common conditions have stable methylomes in symmetrical CG-contexts. In contrast, seasonal dynamics occurred in methylation patterns in CHH context. In the second experiment, we investigated whether methylome patterns of plants grown in a non-parental environment correlate with the parental climate. We did not observe a biological relevant pattern that significantly correlates with the parental climate. Finally, we investigated whether the parental environment has persistent carry-over effects on the vegetative offspring's phenotype. We combined new bud set observations of three consecutive growing seasons with former published bud set data. Using a linear mixed effects analysis, we found a statistically significant but weak short-term, parental carry-over effect on the timing of bud set. However, this effect was negligible compared to the direct effects of the offspring environment. CONCLUSIONS: Genome-wide cytosine methylation patterns in symmetrical CG-context are stable in Lombardy poplar and appear to be mainly the result of random processes. In this widespread poplar clone, methylation patterns in CG-context can be used as biomarkers to infer a common ancestor and thus to investigate the recent environmental history of a specific Lombardy poplar. The Lombardy poplar shows high phenotypic plasticity in a novel environment which enabled this clonal tree to adapt and survive all over the temperate regions of the world.

Signatures of local adaptation to current and future climate in phenology-related genes in natural populations of Quercus robur.

BACKGROUND: Local adaptation is a key evolutionary process that enhances the growth of plants in their native habitat compared to non-native habitats, resulting in patterns of adaptive genetic variation across the entire geographic range of the species. The study of population adaptation to local environments and predicting their response to future climate change is important because of climate change. RESULTS: Here, we explored the genetic diversity of candidate genes associated with bud burst in pedunculate oak individuals sampled from 6 populations in Poland. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) diversity was assessed in 720 candidate genes using the sequence capture technique, yielding 18,799 SNPs. Using landscape genomic approaches, we identified 8 FST outliers and 781 unique SNPs in 389 genes associated with geography, climate, and phenotypic variables (individual/family spring and autumn phenology, family diameter at breast height (DBH), height, and survival) that are potentially involved in local adaptation. Then, using a nonlinear multivariate model, Gradient Forests, we identified vulnerable areas of the pedunculate oak distribution in Poland that are at risk from climate change. CONCLUSIONS: The model revealed that pedunculate oak populations in the eastern part of the analyzed geographical region are the most sensitive to climate change. Our results might offer an initial evaluation of a potential management strategy for preserving the genetic diversity of pedunculate oak.

Mast seeding in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is associated with reduced fungal sporocarp production and community diversity.

Mast seeding is a well-documented phenomenon across diverse forest ecosystems. While its effect on aboveground food webs has been thoroughly studied, how it impacts the soil fungi that drive soil carbon and nutrient cycling has not yet been explored. To evaluate the relationship between mast seeding and fungal resource availability, we paired a Swiss 29-year fungal sporocarp census with contemporaneous seed production for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). On average, mast seeding was associated with a 55% reduction in sporocarp production and a compositional community shift towards drought-tolerant taxa across both ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds. Among ectomycorrhizal fungi, traits associated with carbon cost did not explain species' sensitivity to seed production. Together, our results support a novel hypothesis that mast seeding limits annual resource availability and reproductive investment in soil fungi, creating an ecosystem 'rhythm' to forest processes that is synchronized above- and belowground.

Time-dependent interaction modification generated from plant-soil feedback.

Pairwise interactions between species can be modified by other community members, leading to emergent dynamics contingent on community composition. Despite the prevalence of such higher-order interactions, little is known about how they are linked to the timing and order of species' arrival. We generate population dynamics from a mechanistic plant-soil feedback model, then apply a general theoretical framework to show that the modification of a pairwise interaction by a third plant depends on its germination phenology. These time-dependent interaction modifications emerge from concurrent changes in plant and microbe populations and are strengthened by higher overlap between plants' associated microbiomes. The interaction between this overlap and the specificity of microbiomes further determines plant coexistence. Our framework is widely applicable to mechanisms in other systems from which similar time-dependent interaction modifications can emerge, highlighting the need to integrate temporal shifts of species interactions to predict the emergent dynamics of natural communities.

Competition for time: Evidence for an overlooked, diversity-maintaining competitive mechanism.

Understanding how diversity is maintained in plant communities requires that we first understand the mechanisms of competition for limiting resources. In ecology, there is an underappreciated but fundamental distinction between systems in which the depletion of limiting resources reduces the growth rates of competitors and systems in which resource depletion reduces the time available for competitors to grow, a mechanism we call 'competition for time'. Importantly, modern community ecology and our framing of the coexistence problem are built on the implicit assumption that competition reduces the growth rate. However, recent theoretical work suggests competition for time may be the predominant competitive mechanism in a broad array of natural communities, a significant advance given that when species compete for time, diversity-maintaining trade-offs emerge organically. In this study, we first introduce competition for time conceptually using a simple model of interacting species. Then, we perform an experiment in a Mediterranean annual grassland to determine whether competition for time is an important competitive mechanism in a field system. Indeed, we find that species respond to increased competition through reductions in their lifespan rather than their rate of growth. In total, our study suggests competition for time may be overlooked as a mechanism of biodiversity maintenance.

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success.

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Longer days, larger grays: carryover effects of photoperiod and temperature in gray treefrogs, Hyla versicolor.

Environmental conditions like temperature and photoperiod can strongly shape organisms' growth and development. For many ectotherms with complex life cycles, global change will cause their offspring to experience warmer conditions and earlier-season photoperiods, two variables that can induce conflicting responses. We experimentally manipulated photoperiod and temperature during gray treefrog (Hyla versicolor) larval development to examine effects at metamorphosis and during short (10-day) and long (56-day) periods post-metamorphosis. Both early- and late-season photoperiods (April and August) decreased age and size at metamorphosis relative to the average-season (June) photoperiod, while warmer temperatures decreased age but increased size at metamorphosis. Warmer larval temperatures reduced short-term juvenile growth but had no long-term effect. Conversely, photoperiod had no short-term carryover effect, but juveniles from early- and late-season larval photoperiods had lower long-term growth rates than juveniles from the average-season photoperiod. Similar responses to early- and late-season photoperiods may be due to reduced total daylight compared with average-season photoperiods. However, juveniles from late-season photoperiods selected cooler temperatures than early-season juveniles, suggesting that not all effects of photoperiod were due to total light exposure. Our results indicate that despite both temperature and photoperiod affecting metamorphosis, the long-term effects of photoperiod may be much stronger than those of temperature.

Leaf gene expression trajectories during the growing season are consistent between sites and years in American beech.

Transcriptomics provides a versatile tool for ecological monitoring. Here, through genome-guided profiling of transcripts mapping to 33 042 gene models, expression differences can be discerned among multi-year and seasonal leaf samples collected from American beech trees at two latitudinally separated sites. Despite a bottleneck due to post-Columbian deforestation, the single nucleotide polymorphism-based population genetic background analysis has yielded sufficient variation to account for differences between populations and among individuals. Our expression analyses during spring-summer and summer-autumn transitions for two consecutive years involved 4197 differentially expressed protein coding genes. Using Populus orthologues we reconstructed a protein-protein interactome representing leaf physiological states of trees during the seasonal transitions. Gene set enrichment analysis revealed gene ontology terms that highlight molecular functions and biological processes possibly influenced by abiotic forcings such as recovery from drought and response to excess precipitation. Further, based on 324 co-regulated transcripts, we focused on a subset of GO terms that could be putatively attributed to late spring phenological shifts. Our conservative results indicate that extended transcriptome-based monitoring of forests can capture diverse ranges of responses including air quality, chronic disease, as well as herbivore outbreaks that require activation and/or downregulation of genes collectively tuning reaction norms maintaining the survival of long living trees such as the American beech.

Temperature and water availability drive insect seasonality across a temperate and a tropical region.

The more insects there are, the more food there is for insectivores and the higher the likelihood for insect-associated ecosystem services. Yet, we lack insights into the drivers of insect biomass over space and seasons, for both tropical and temperate zones. We used 245 Malaise traps, managed by 191 volunteers and park guards, to characterize year-round flying insect biomass in a temperate (Sweden) and a tropical (Madagascar) country. Surprisingly, we found that local insect biomass was similar across zones. In Sweden, local insect biomass increased with accumulated heat and varied across habitats, while biomass in Madagascar was unrelated to the environmental predictors measured. Drivers behind seasonality partly converged: In both countries, the seasonality of insect biomass differed between warmer and colder sites, and wetter and drier sites. In Sweden, short-term deviations from expected season-specific biomass were explained by week-to-week fluctuations in accumulated heat, rainfall and soil moisture, whereas in Madagascar, weeks with higher soil moisture had higher insect biomass. Overall, our study identifies key drivers of the seasonal distribution of flying insect biomass in a temperate and a tropical climate. This knowledge is key to understanding the spatial and seasonal availability of insects-as well as predicting future scenarios of insect biomass change.

Different currencies for calculating resource phenology result in opposite inferences about trophic mismatches.

Shifts in phenology are among the key responses of organisms to climate change. When rates of phenological change differ between interacting species they may result in phenological asynchrony. Studies have found conflicting patterns concerning the direction and magnitude of changes in synchrony, which have been attributed to biological factors. A hitherto overlooked additional explanation are differences in the currency used to quantify resource phenology, such as abundance and biomass. Studying an insectivorous bird (the sanderling) and its prey, we show that the median date of cumulative arthropod biomass occurred, on average, 6.9 days after the median date of cumulative arthropod abundance. In some years this difference could be as large as 21 days. For 23 years, hatch dates of sanderlings became less synchronized with the median date of arthropod abundance, but more synchronized with the median date of arthropod biomass. The currency-specific trends can be explained by our finding that mean biomass per arthropod specimen increased with date. Using a conceptual simulation, we show that estimated rates of phenological change for abundance and biomass can differ depending on temporal shifts in the size distribution of resources. We conclude that studies of trophic mismatch based on different currencies for resource phenology can be incompatible with each other.

Exploring the role of biotic factors in regulating the spatial variability in land surface phenology across four temperate forest sites.

Land surface phenology (LSP), the characterization of plant phenology with satellite data, is essential for understanding the effects of climate change on ecosystem functions. Considerable LSP variation is observed within local landscapes, and the role of biotic factors in regulating such variation remains underexplored. In this study, we selected four National Ecological Observatory Network terrestrial sites with minor topographic relief to investigate how biotic factors regulate intra-site LSP variability. We utilized plant functional type (PFT) maps, functional traits, and LSP data to assess the explanatory power of biotic factors for the start and end of season (SOS and EOS) variability. Our results indicate that PFTs alone explain only 0.8-23.4% of intra-site SOS and EOS variation, whereas including functional traits significantly improves explanatory power, with cross-validation correlations ranging from 0.50 to 0.85. While functional traits exhibited diverse effects on SOS and EOS across different sites, traits related to competitive ability and productivity were important for explaining both SOS and EOS variation at these sites. These findings reveal that plants exhibit diverse phenological responses to comparable environmental conditions, and functional traits significantly contribute to intra-site LSP variability, highlighting the importance of intrinsic biotic properties in regulating plant phenology.

Forest understorey flowering phenology responses to experimental warming and illumination.

Species are altering their phenology to track warming temperatures. In forests, understorey plants experience tree canopy shading resulting in light and temperature conditions, which strongly deviate from open habitats. Yet, little is known about understorey phenology responses to forest microclimates. We recorded flowering onset, peak, end and duration of 10 temperate forest understorey plant species in two mesocosm experiments to understand how phenology is affected by sub-canopy warming and how this response is modulated by illumination, which is related to canopy change. Furthermore, we investigated whether phenological sensitivities can be explained by species' characteristics, such as thermal niche. We found a mean advance of flowering onset of 7.1 d per 1°C warming, more than previously reported in studies not accounting for microclimatic buffering. Warm-adapted species exhibited greater advances. Temperature sensitivity did not differ between early- and later-flowering species. Experimental illumination did not significantly affect species' phenological temperature sensitivities, but slightly delayed flowering phenology independent from warming. Our study suggests that integrating sub-canopy temperature and light availability will help us better understand future understorey phenology responses. Climate warming together with intensifying canopy disturbances will continue to drive phenological shifts and potentially disrupt understorey communities, thereby affecting forest biodiversity and functioning.