History of multifetal gestation and long-term maternal mortality.

BACKGROUND: Multifetal gestation could be associated with higher long-term maternal mortality because it increases the risk of pregnancy complications such as preeclampsia and preterm birth, which are in turn linked to postpartum cardiovascular risk. OBJECTIVES: We examined whether spontaneously conceived multifetal versus singleton gestation was associated with long-term maternal mortality in a racially diverse U.S. METHODS: We ascertained vital status as of 2016 via linkage to the National Death Index and Social Security Death Master File of 44,174 mothers from the Collaborative Perinatal Project (CPP; 1959-1966). Cox proportional hazards models with maternal age as the time scale assessed associations between history of spontaneous multifetal gestation (in the last CPP observed pregnancy or prior pregnancy) and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, adjusted for demographics, smoking status, and preexisting medical conditions. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality over the study period and until age 50, 60, and 70 years (premature mortality). RESULTS: Of eligible participants, 1672 (3.8%) had a history of multifetal gestation. Participants with versus without a history of multifetal gestation were older, more likely to have a preexisting condition, and more likely to smoke. By 2016, 51% of participants with and 38% of participants without a history of multifetal gestation had died (unadjusted all-cause HR 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07, 1.23). After adjustment for smoking and preexisting conditions, a history of multifetal gestation was not associated with all-cause (adjusted HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.93, 1.08) or cardiovascular mortality (adjusted HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.87, 1.11) over the study period. However, history of multifetal gestation was associated with an 11% lower risk of premature all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82, 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort with over 50 years of follow-up, history of multifetal gestation was not associated with all-cause mortality, but may be associated with a lower risk of premature mortality.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in cause-specific premature mortality in Belgium, 1998-2019.

BACKGROUND: Higher levels of socioeconomic deprivation have been consistently associated with increased risk of premature mortality, but a detailed analysis by causes of death is lacking in Belgium. We aim to investigate the association between area deprivation and all-cause and cause-specific premature mortality in Belgium over the period 1998-2019. METHODS: We used the 2001 and 2011 Belgian Indices of Multiple Deprivation to assign statistical sectors, the smallest geographical units in the country, into deprivation deciles. All-cause and cause-specific premature mortality rates, population attributable fraction, and potential years of life lost due to inequality were estimated by period, sex, and deprivation deciles. RESULTS: Men and women living in the most deprived areas were 1.96 and 1.78 times more likely to die prematurely compared to those living in the least deprived areas over the period under study (1998-2019). About 28% of all premature deaths could be attributed to socioeconomic inequality and about 30% of potential years of life lost would be averted if the whole population of Belgium faced the premature mortality rates of the least deprived areas. CONCLUSION: Premature mortality rates have declined over time, but inequality has increased due to a faster pace of decrease in the least deprived areas compared to the most deprived areas. As the causes of death related to poor lifestyle choices contribute the most to the inequality gap, more effective, country-level interventions should be put in place to target segments of the population living in the most deprived areas as they are facing disproportionately high risks of dying.

[Incidence of sudden death in epilepsy (SUDEP): update and limitations]. / Inzidenz des plötzlichen Epilepsietodes (SUDEP): Update und Limitationen.

BACKGROUND: Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) is in most cases probably due to a fatal complication of tonic-clonic seizures and plays a significant role in the premature mortality of individuals with epilepsy. The reported risks of SUDEP vary considerably depending on the study population, so that an up-dated systematic review of SUDEP incidence including most recent studies is required to improve the estimated SUDEP risk and the counseling of individuals with epilepsy. OBJECTIVE: To provide an overview of the current research landscape concerning SUDEP incidence across different patient populations and discuss potential conclusions and existing limitations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A systematic literature review on SUDEP incidence was conducted in MEDLINE and EMBASE, supplemented by a manual search in June 2023. Out of a total of 3324 publications, 50 were reviewed for this study. RESULTS: The analyzed studies showed significant heterogeneity concerning cohorts, study design and data sources. Studies conducted without specific criteria and relying on comprehensive registers indicated an incidence of 0.78-1.2 per 1000 patient-years. Research providing incidences across various age groups predominantly show an increase with age, peaking in middle age. DISCUSSION: Due to varying methods of data collection and incidence calculation, comparing between studies is challenging. The association with age might be due to an underrepresentation of children, adolescents and patients over 60 years. CONCLUSION: Considering all age groups and types of epilepsy it is estimated that about 1 in 1000 individuals with epilepsy dies of SUDEP annually. With an assumed epilepsy prevalence of 0.6% in Germany, this could lead to more than one SUDEP case daily. Standardization of research methods is essential to gain more profound insights.

[Socioeconomic deprivation and premature mortality in Germany, 1998-2021 : An ecological study with what-if scenarios of inequality reduction]. / Sozioökonomische Deprivation und vorzeitige Sterblichkeit in Deutschland 1998­2021 : Eine ökologische Studie mit What-if-Szenarien der Ungleichheitsreduktion.

BACKGROUND: Earlier mortality in socioeconomically disadvantaged population groups represents an extreme manifestation of health inequity. This study examines the extent, time trends, and mitigation potentials of area-level socioeconomic inequalities in premature mortality in Germany. METHODS: Nationwide data from official cause-of-death statistics were linked at the district level with official population data and the German Index of Socioeconomic Deprivation (GISD). Age-standardized mortality rates before the age of 75 were calculated stratified by sex and deprivation quintile. A what-if analysis with counterfactual scenarios was applied to calculate how much lower premature mortality would be overall if socioeconomic mortality inequalities were reduced. RESULTS: Men and women in the highest deprivation quintile had a 43% and 33% higher risk of premature death, respectively, than those in the lowest deprivation quintile of the same age. Higher mortality rates with increasing deprivation were found for cardiovascular and cancer mortality, but also for other causes of death. Socioeconomic mortality inequalities had started to increase before the COVID-19 pandemic and further exacerbated in the first years of the pandemic. If all regions had the same mortality rate as those in the lowest deprivation quintile, premature mortality would be 13% lower overall. DISCUSSION: The widening gap in premature mortality between deprived and affluent regions emphasizes that creating equivalent living conditions across Germany is also an important field of action for reducing health inequity.

Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection and Risk of Stroke Types: A Prospective Cohort Study of 500†000 Chinese Adults.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and permanent disability in China, with large and unexplained geographic variations in rates of different stroke types. Chronic hepatitis B virus infection is prevalent among Chinese adults and may play a role in stroke cause. METHODS: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank included >500 000 adults aged 30 to 79 years who were recruited from 10 (5 urban and 5 rural) geographically diverse areas of China from 2004 to 2008, with determination of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positivity at baseline. During 11 years of follow-up, a total of 59 117 incident stroke cases occurred, including 11 318 intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), 49 971 ischemic stroke, 995 subarachnoid hemorrhage, and 3036 other/unspecified stroke. Cox regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for risk of stroke types associated with HBsAg positivity. In a subset of 17 833 participants, liver enzymes and lipids levels were measured and compared by HBsAg status. RESULTS: Overall, 3.0% of participants were positive for HBsAg. HBsAg positivity was associated with an increased risk of ICH (adjusted HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.16-1.44]), similarly for fatal (n=5982; adjusted HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.16-1.59]) and nonfatal (n=5336; adjusted HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.06-1.44]) ICH. There were no significant associations of HBsAg positivity with risks of ischemic stroke (adjusted HR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.92-1.03]), subarachnoid hemorrhage (adjusted HR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.57-1.33]), or other/unspecified stroke (adjusted HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 0.89-1.42]). Compared with HBsAg-negative counterparts, HBsAg-positive individuals had lower lipid and albumin levels and higher liver enzyme levels. After adjustment for liver enzymes and albumin, the association with ICH from HBsAg positivity attenuated to 1.15 (0.90-1.48), suggesting possible mediation by abnormal liver function. CONCLUSIONS: Among Chinese adults, chronic hepatitis B virus infection is associated with an increased risk of ICH but not other stroke types, which may be mediated through liver dysfunction and altered lipid metabolism.

Association between Life's Essential 8 score and risk of premature mortality in people with and without type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort study.

AIMS: To evaluate the association of cardiovascular health (CVH), measured by Life's Essential 8 score, with the risk of premature mortality and to determine the patterns of CVH-related differences in life expectancy among people with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This prospective study included 309,789 participants (age 56.6 ± 8.1 years; 46% men) enroled in the UK Biobank. The Life's Essential 8 composite measure consists of four health behaviours (diet, physical activity, nicotine exposure, and sleep) and four health factors (BMI, non-HDL cholesterol, blood glucose, and blood pressure), and the maximum CVH score was 100 points. CVH was categorised into low, moderate, and high groups. Premature death was defined as death before the age of 75. Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated, and life expectancy was estimated. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 13,683 cases of premature death were documented. Compared to participants with low CVH, the multivariable HRs (95% CIs) of premature death were 0.59 (0.56-0.62) and 0.42 (0.39-0.45) for the moderate and high CVH groups, respectively. This association was stronger in participants with T2D compared with those without T2D. At the age of 50 years, compared to low CVH groups, high CVH was associated with a gain of 9.79 (9.70-9.87) and 5.58 (5.48-5.67) additional life years for men with and without T2D, respectively. The corresponding life gain for women with and without T2D was 24.21 (24.13-24.27) and 10.18 (10.10-10.27), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Maintaining an ideal Life's Essential 8 score may provide more benefits for people with T2D than for those without T2D, including a lower risk of premature death and an increased lifespan.

The fraction of life years lost after diagnosis (FLYLAD): a person-centred measure of cancer burden.

BACKGROUND: Cancer control initiatives are informed by quantifying the capacity to reduce cancer burden through effective interventions. Burden measures using health administrative data are a sustainable way to support monitoring and evaluating of outcomes among patients and populations. The Fraction of Life Years Lost After Diagnosis (FLYLAD) is one such burden measure. We use data on Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal South Australians from 1990 to 2010 to show how FLYLAD quantifies disparities in cancer burden: between populations; between sub-population cohorts where stage at diagnosis is available; and when follow-up is constrained to 24-months after diagnosis. METHOD: FLYLADcancer is the fraction of years of life expectancy lost due to cancer (YLLcancer) to life expectancy years at risk at time of cancer diagnosis (LYAR) for each person. The Global Burden of Disease standard life table provides referent life expectancies. FLYLADcancer was estimated for the population of cancer cases diagnosed in South Australia from 1990 to 2010. Cancer stage at diagnosis was also available for cancers diagnosed in Aboriginal people and a cohort of non-Aboriginal people matched by sex, year of birth, primary cancer site and year of diagnosis. RESULTS: Cancers diagnoses (N = 144,891) included 777 among Aboriginal people. Cancer burden described by FLYLADcancer was higher among Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal (0.55, 95% CIs 0.52-0.59 versus 0.39, 95% CIs 0.39-0.40). Diagnoses at younger ages among Aboriginal people, 7 year higher LYAR (31.0, 95% CIs 30.0-32.0 versus 24.1, 95% CIs 24.1-24.2) and higher premature cancer mortality (YLLcancer = 16.3, 95% CIs 15.1-17.5 versus YLLcancer = 8.2, 95% CIs 8.2-8.3) influenced this. Disparities in cancer burden between the matched Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal cohorts manifested 24-months after diagnosis with FLYLADcancer 0.44, 95% CIs 0.40-0.47 and 0.28, 95% CIs 0.25-0.31 respectively. CONCLUSION: FLYLAD described disproportionately higher cancer burden among Aboriginal people in comparisons involving: all people diagnosed with cancer; the matched cohorts; and, within groups diagnosed with same staged disease. The extent of disparities were evident 24-months after diagnosis. This is evidence of Aboriginal peoples' substantial capacity to benefit from cancer control initiatives, particularly those leading to earlier detection and treatment of cancers. FLYLAD's use of readily available, person-level administrative records can help evaluate health care initiatives addressing this need.

Present-day and future PM2.5 and O3-related global and regional premature mortality in the EVAv6.0 health impact assessment model.

We used the EVAv6.0 system to estimate the present (2015) and future (2015-2050) global PM2.5 and O3-related premature mortalities, using simulated surface concentrations from the GISS-E2.1-G Earth system model. The PM2.5-related global premature mortality is estimated to be 4.3 and 4.4 million by the non-linear and linear models, respectively. Ischemic heart diseases are found to be the leading cause of PM2.5-related premature deaths, contributing by 35% globally. Both long-term and short-term O3-related premature deaths are estimated to be around 1 million, globally. Overall, PM2.5 and O3-related premature mortality leads to 5.3-5.4 million premature deaths, globally. The global burden of premature deaths is mainly driven by the Asian region, which in 2015 contributes by 75% of the total global premature deaths. An increase from 6.2% to 8% in the PM2.5 relative risk as recommended by the WHO leads to an increase of PM2.5-related premature mortality by 28%, to 5.7 million. Finally, bias correcting the simulated PM2.5 concentrations in 2015 leads to an increase of up to 73% in the global PM2.5-related premature mortality, leading to a total number of global premature deaths of up to 7.7 million, implying the necessity of bias correction to get more robust health burden estimates. PM2.5 and O3-related premature mortality in 2050 decreases by up to 57% and 18%, respectively, due to emission reductions alone. However, the projected increase and aging of the population leads to increases of premature mortality by up to a factor of 2, showing that the population exposed to air pollution is more important than the level of air pollutants, highlighting that the population dynamics should be considered when setting up health assessment systems.

Obesity at age 20 and weight gain during adulthood increase risk of total and premature all-cause mortality: findings from women attending breast screening in Manchester.

BACKGROUND: Obesity in early adulthood is associated with lower breast cancer rates in later life. This could be interpreted as a positive reinforcement of excess weight amongst younger women however, the wider implications of higher weights are less well known. This study examined the association between both obesity in early adulthood and body mass index (BMI) change through adulthood, and all-cause mortality. METHODS: The Predicting Risk of Cancer At Screening (PROCAS) study recruited 57,902 women aged 46-73 years (median age 57.2, IQR 51.8-63.7 years) from the Greater Manchester National Health Service breast screening programme in North West England between 2009 and 2015. It was used to assess associations between BMI at 20 years and cohort entry with all-cause mortality ascertained via deaths recorded on the National Breast Screening System to June 2020. Hazard ratios were estimated using proportional hazards (Cox) regression adjusted for factors at entry to the cohort: age, deprivation, bilateral oophorectomy, hormone-replacement therapy, menopausal status, ethnicity, alcohol intake, physical activity, and BMI. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight (25-30 kg/m2) and obesity (> 30 kg/m2) were 10.4% and 2.5% respectively at 20 years, increasing to 35.2% and 25.9% respectively at cohort entry. After a mean 8.7 years follow-up we observed that overweight (HR = 1.27, 95%CI = 1.10-1.47) and obesity (HR = 2.11, 95%CI = 1.67-2.66) at 20 years had a higher mortality rate compared with healthy weight. Women who were underweight/healthy weight at 20 years and gained weight to obesity at entry had a slightly increased mortality rate compared with women who were underweight/healthy weight at both time points (HR 1.16, 95%CI = 1.02-1.32). Women with overweight (HR = 1.36, 95%CI = 1.06-1.75) or obesity (HR = 1.90, 95%CI = 1.45-2.48) at both 20 years and entry had a higher mortality rate than women who were underweight/healthy weight at both points. CONCLUSIONS: Women who self-reported overweight and obesity at 20 years had a shorter life expectancy in this cohort of women attending breast cancer screening. Weight gain from 20 years was common in this group. Girls and women should be supported to maintain a healthy weight throughout the lifespan to help increase life expectancy. Trial registration number NCT04359420, retrospectively registered 24/04/2020.

Trends in cause-specific mortality: deaths of despair in Spain, 1980-2019.

BACKGROUND: Research from various countries has shown increases in alcohol- and drug-related deaths and suicide, known as 'deaths of despair' over recent decades, particularly among low-educated middle-aged individuals. However, little is known about trends in death-of-despair causes in Spain. Therefore, we aim to descriptively examine this among 25-64-year-olds from 1980 to 2019 and by educational attainment for the years 2017-19. METHODS: We obtained mortality and population data from the National Institute of Statistics to estimate age-standardized mortality rates and assess educational inequalities using the relative index of inequality (RII). RESULTS: Deaths of despair as a share of total mortality slightly increased from 2000 onwards, particularly among 25-64-year-old men (from 9 to 10%). Only alcohol-related mortality declined relatively more since 1980 compared with all-cause mortality. Regarding educational differences, low-educated men presented higher mortality rates in all death-of-despair causes (alcohol-related: RII 3.54 (95% CI: 2.21-5.66); drug-related: RII 3.49 (95% CI: 1.80-6.77); suicide: RII 1.97 (95% CI: 1.49-2.61)). Women noteworthy differences were only observed for alcohol-related (RII 3.50 (95% CI: 2.13-5.75)). CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest an increasing proportion of deaths of despair among 25-64-year-olds since 2000, particularly among men. Public health policies are needed to reduce and prevent these premature and preventable causes of mortality.

The global estimate of premature cardiovascular mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of age-standardized mortality rate.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a significant cause of premature mortality worldwide, with a growing burden in recent years. Despite this, there is a lack of comprehensive meta-analyses that quantify the extent of premature CVD mortality. Study addressed this gap by estimating the pooled age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of premature CVD mortality. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of published CVD mortality studies that reported ASMR as an indicator for premature mortality measurement. All English articles published as of October 2022 were searched in four electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science (WoS), and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). We computed pooled estimates of ASMR using random-effects meta-analysis. We assessed heterogeneity from the selected studies using the I2 statistic. Subgroup analyses and meta regression analysis was performed based on sex, main CVD types, income country level, study time and age group. The analysis was performed using R software with the "meta" and "metafor" packages. RESULTS: A total of 15 studies met the inclusion criteria. The estimated global ASMR for premature mortality from total CVD was 96.04 per 100,000 people (95% CI: 67.18, 137.31). Subgroup analysis by specific CVD types revealed a higher ASMR for ischemic heart disease (ASMR = 15.57, 95% CI: 11.27, 21.5) compared to stroke (ASMR = 12.36, 95% CI: 8.09, 18.91). Sex-specific differences were also observed, with higher ASMRs for males (37.50, 95% CI: 23.69, 59.37) than females (15.75, 95% CI: 9.61, 25.81). Middle-income countries had a significantly higher ASMR (90.58, 95% CI: 56.40, 145.48) compared to high-income countries (21.42, 95% CI: 15.63, 29.37). Stratifying by age group indicated that the age groups of 20-64 years and 30-74 years had a higher ASMR than the age group of 0-74 years. Our multivariable meta-regression model suggested significant differences in the adjusted ASMR estimates for all covariates except study time. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis synthesized a comprehensive estimate of the worldwide burden of premature CVD mortality. Our findings underscore the continued burden of premature CVD mortality, particularly in middle-income countries. Addressing this issue requires targeted interventions to mitigate the high risk of premature CVD mortality in these vulnerable populations.

Association between childhood adversities and premature and potentially avoidable mortality in adulthood: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The association of childhood adversities with mortality has rarely been explored, and even less studied is the question of whether any excess mortality may be potentially preventable. This study examined the association between specific childhood adversities and premature and potentially avoidable mortality (PPAM) in adulthood in a representative sample of the general population. Also, we examined whether the associations were potentially mediated by various adult socioeconomic, psychosocial, and behavioral factors. METHODS: The study used data from the National Population Health Survey (NPHS-1994) linked to the Canadian Vital Statistics Database (CVSD 1994-2014) available from Statistics Canada. The NPHS interview retrospectively assessed childhood exposure to prolonged hospitalization, parental divorce, prolonged parental unemployment, prolonged trauma, parental problematic substance use, physical abuse, and being sent away from home for doing something wrong. An existing definition of PPAM, consisting of causes of death considered preventable or treatable before age 75, was used. Competing cause survival models were used to examine the associations of specific childhood adversities with PPAM in adulthood among respondents aged 18 to 74 years (rounded n = 11,035). RESULTS: During the 20-year follow-up, 5.4% of the sample died prematurely of a cause that was considered potentially avoidable. Childhood adversities had a differential effect on mortality. Physical abuse (age-adjusted sub-hazard ratio; SHR 1.44; 95% CI 1.03, 2.00) and being sent away from home (age-adjusted SHR 2.26; 95% CI 1.43,3.57) were significantly associated with PPAM. The associations were attenuated when adjusted for adulthood factors, namely smoking, poor perceived health, depression, low perceived social support, and low income, consistent with possible mediating effects. Other adversities under study were not associated with PPAM. CONCLUSION: The findings imply that the psychological sequelae of childhood physical abuse and being sent away from home and subsequent uptake of adverse health behavior may lead to increased risk of potentially avoidable mortality. The potential mediators identified offer directions for future research to perform causal mediation analyses with suitable data and identify interventions aimed at preventing premature mortality due to potentially avoidable causes. Other forms of adversities, mostly related to household dysfunction, may not be determinants of the distal health outcome of mortality.

Can Early Disadvantage Be Overcome? A Life Course Approach to Understanding How Disadvantage, Education, and Social Integration Impact Mortality into Middle Adulthood Among a Black American Cohort.

Health equity research has identified fundamental social causes of health, many of which disproportionately affect Black Americans, such as early life socioeconomic conditions, neighborhood disadvantage, and racial discrimination. However, the role of life course factors in premature mortality among Black Americans has not been tested extensively in prospective samples into later adulthood. To better understand how social factors at various life stages impact mortality, this study examines the effect of life course poverty, neighborhood disadvantage, and discrimination on mortality and factors that may buffer their effect (i.e., education, social integration) among the Woodlawn cohort (N = 1242), a community cohort of urban Black Americans followed since 1966. Taking a life course perspective, we analyze mortality data for deaths through age 58 years old, as well as data collected at ages 6, 16, 32, and 42. At age 58, 204 (16.4%) of the original cohort have died, with ages of death ranging from 9 to 58.98 (mean = 42.9). Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for confounders show statistically significant differences in mortality risk based on timing and persistence of poverty; those who were never poor or poor only in early life had lower mortality risk at ages 43-58 than those who were persistently poor from childhood to adulthood. Education beyond high school and high social integration were shown to reduce the risk of mortality more for those who did not experience poverty early in their life course. Findings have implications for the timing and content of mortality prevention efforts that span the full life course.

Inequalities in premature mortality from ischaemic heart disease in the WHO European region.

OBJECTIVES: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is one of the leading causes of premature mortality. Our aim was to analyse standardised premature mortality rates from IHD by geographical groups in the age group 45-59 years. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, quantitative analysis of age-standardized mortality rates from IHD between 1990-2014 per 100,000 population in Western European (WE: N = 17), Eastern European countries (EE: N = 10), and countries of the former Soviet Union (fSU: N = 15) within the European Region of the World Health Organisation (WHO) based on data retrieved from the WHO European Mortality Database. Descriptive statistics, time series analysis and statistical tests were used for the analyses (ANOVA, Kruskal-Wallis test, Mann-Whitney test, paired t-test). RESULTS: On average, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) from IHD per 100,000 population were the lowest in WE (men 1990: 143.67, 2014: 50.29; women 1990: 29.06, 2014: 9.89), and the highest in fSU (men 1990: 358.69, 2014: 253.25; women 1990: 99.78, 2014: 57.85). Between 1990 and 2014, all three groups experienced significant decrease in ASDR both in men and women (fSU: -29.39%, -42.02%; EE: -49.41%, -50.57%; WE: -64.99%, -65.97%, respectively) (p < 0.05). Between 1990 and 2004, ASDR decreased in WE in both sexes (p < 0.001), in EE among males (p = 0.032). Between 2004 and 2014, ASDR from IHD decreased significantly in both sexes in fSU and WE, in EE only among women (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: During the whole period analysed, ischaemic heart disease mortality significantly decreased in both sexes in all the groups.

Estimation of premature death attributed to short- and long-term PM2.5 exposure in Thailand.

Particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) has been identified as a global health concern in recent decades. Indeed, PM2.5 exposure causes detrimental health problems in the general population. Estimating the short- and long-term health impacts of PM2.5 exposure should help to shape public health policy concerning air pollution. Hence, this study sought to estimate the rate of premature death attributable to PM2.5 exposure among the Thai population if the PM2.5 concentration met the applied counterfactual factor. The PM2.5 concentration, population numbers, and numbers of health incidences were collected from secondary data sources in 2019. A health impact analysis was performed using AirQ+ software to estimate the incidences of premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 exposure. More specifically, the analysis provided the estimated proportion of attributable cases and the rate of premature death per 100,000 population aged ≥ 30 years. The annual average PM2.5 concentration in Thailand was found to be 24.15 µg per cubic meter (µg/m3) in 2019, while the natural mortality rate was around 1,107 per 100,000 population nationwide. With regard to short-term PM2.5 exposure, it was determined that 8 premature deaths per 100,000 population could be prevented if the PM2.5 concentration met the World Health Organization (WHO) short-term gold standard of 15 µg/m3. Moreover, 159 premature deaths per 100,000 population could be avoided if the PM2.5 concentration met the WHO's long-term gold standard of 5 µg/m3. This estimation of premature deaths due to the short- and long-term impacts of PM2.5 exposure can support policymakers and stakeholders in creating a roadmap to combating the adverse impacts of PM2.5 exposure and protect the health of the Thai population.

Revisiting the Calculation for a Novel Measure of Average Lifespan Shortened: Real-World Examples From Cervical and Ovarian Cancers in Alberta, Canada, 2000 - 2020.

In this technical note, we primarily demonstrate the computation of confidence limits for a novel measure of average lifespan shortened (ALSS). We identified women who had died from cervical and ovarian cancer between 2000 and 2020 from the Alberta cancer registry. Years of life lost (YLL) was calculated using the national life tables of Canada. We estimated the ALSS as a ratio of YLL in relation to the expected lifespan. We computed the confidence limits of the measure using various approaches, including the normal distribution, gamma distribution, and bootstrap method. The new ALSS measure shows a modest gain in lifespan of women, particularly women with ovarian cancer, over the study period.

Temporal trajectories of important diseases in the life course and premature mortality in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Little is known regarding life-course trajectories of important diseases. We aimed to identify diseases that were strongly associated with mortality and test temporal trajectories of these diseases before mortality. METHODS: Our analysis was based on UK Biobank. Diseases were identified using questionnaires, nurses' interviews, or inpatient data. Mortality register data were used to identify mortality up to January 2021. The association between 60 individual diseases at baseline and in the life course and incident mortality was examined using Cox proportional regression models. Those diseases with great contribution to mortality were identified and disease trajectories in life course were then derived. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.8 years, 31,373 individuals (median age at death (interquartile range): 70.7 (65.3-74.8) years, 59.4% male) died of all-cause mortality (with complete data on diagnosis date of disease), with 16,237 dying with cancer and 6702 with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We identified 37 diseases including cancers and heart diseases that were associated with an increased risk of mortality independent of other diseases (hazard ratio ranged from 1.09 to 7.77). Among those who died during follow-up, 2.2% did not have a diagnosis of any disease of interest and 90.1% were diagnosed with two or more diseases in their life course. Individuals who were diagnosed with more diseases in their life course were more likely to have longer longevity. Cancer was more likely to be diagnosed following hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, CVD, or digestive disorders and more likely to be diagnosed ahead of CVD, chronic kidney disease (CKD), or digestive disorders. CVD was more likely to be diagnosed following hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, or digestive disorders and more likely to be diagnosed ahead of cancer or CKD. Hypertension was more likely to precede other diseases, and CKD was more likely to be diagnosed as the last disease before more mortality. CONCLUSIONS: There are significant interplays between cancer and CVD for mortality. Cancer and CVD were frequently clustered with hypertension, CKD, and digestive disorders with CKD highly being diagnosed as the last disease in the life course. Our findings underline the importance of health checks among middle-aged adults for the prevention of premature mortality.

Observed and predicted premature mortality in Australia due to non-communicable diseases: a population-based study examining progress towards the WHO 25X25 goal.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization's (WHO) 25X25 goal aims for a 25% relative reduction in premature death due to four non-communicable diseases (NCD4)-cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes-by 2025 compared to 2010. This study aimed to quantify the premature mortality in the Australian population due to NCD4, quantify the variation in mortality rates by age and sex, predict the premature mortality due to NCD4 in 2025 and evaluate the progress towards the WHO 25X25 goal. METHODS: A population-based study using cause-specific mortality data of all deaths which occurred in Australia from 2010 to 2016 and registered up to 2017, for adults aged 30-69 years, was conducted. Age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) and probability of death for NCD4 were calculated for each year. ASMRs in 2016 were calculated for men and women. Deaths and the probability of death in 2025 were predicted using Poisson regression based on data from 2006 to 2016. To assess the progress against the WHO 25X25 goal, the relative reduction in the probability of death from NCD4 conditions in 2025 compared to 2010 was calculated. RESULTS: ASMRs for NCD4 decreased from 2010 to 2016, except for diabetes which increased on average by 2.5% per year. Across sociodemographic factors, ASMRs were highest in males and increased with age. The projected probability of premature death in 2025 was 7.36%, equivalent to a relative reduction of 25.16% compared to 2010 levels. CONCLUSIONS: Premature mortality due to cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory diseases and diabetes declined in Australia from 2010 to 2016. This trend is consistent across age groups and by sex, and higher mortality rates were observed in males and at older ages. Nationally, if the current trends continue, we estimate that Australia will achieve a 25.16% relative reduction in premature deaths due to NCD4 in 2025 compared to 2010, signifying substantial progress towards the WHO 25X25 goal. Concerted efforts will need to continue to meet the 25X25 goal, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Progress in Reducing Disparities in Premature Mortality in the USA: a Descriptive Study.

BACKGROUND: Eliminating health disparities among different segments of the US population is an overarching goal of the US Healthy People 2020 objectives. OBJECTIVE: Examine changes in educational, rural-urban, and racial disparities in premature mortality during the past 10 years. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Descriptive analysis of US mortality data from 2007 to 2017. MAIN MEASURES: Relative and absolute rural-urban, educational attainment, and Black-White disparities in premature mortality for all-cause and top 10 causes of death among persons ages 25-74 years, estimated as rate ratios and rate differences between ≤12 and ≥16 years of education, rural versus urban, and non-Hispanic Black (Black) versus non-Hispanic White (White), respectively, in 2007 and 2017. KEY RESULTS: During 2007-2017, mortality rates in persons aged 25-74 years in the USA increased for several leading causes of death, especially in persons with <16 years of education, rural residents, and White people. As a result, disparity in mortality between 2007 and 2017 widened on both relative and absolute scales for all-cause and for 6 of the top 10 causes of death by education and for all-cause and for 9 of the top 10 causes by rural/urban residence. In contrast, Black-White disparities narrowed for all-cause and for all 7 causes that Black people had a higher rate than White people. For all-cause mortality for example, absolute disparities in the number of deaths per 100,000 person-years between 2007 and 2017 increased from 454.0 (95%CI, 446.0-462.1) to 542.7 (535.6-549.7) for educational attainment and from 85.8 (82.8-88.8) to 140.5 (137.6-143.4) for rural versus urban; in contrast, absolute Black-White disparity decreased from 315.3 (311.0-319.7) to 221.7 (218.1-225.3). CONCLUSIONS: Educational and rural-urban disparities in premature mortality widened, whereas Black-White disparities narrowed in the USA between 2007 and 2017, though overall rates remained considerably higher in Black people.

Life expectancy and years of potential life lost in bipolar disorder: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing research examining excess mortality in people with bipolar disorder using life expectancy and related measures, which quantify the disease impact on survival. However, there has been no meta-analysis to date summarising existing data on life expectancy in those with bipolar disorder. AIMS: To systematically review and quantitatively synthesise estimates of life expectancy and years of potential life lost (YPLL) in people with bipolar disorder. METHOD: We searched Embase, Medline, PsycINFO and Web of Science databases up to 31 March 2021. We generated pooled life expectancy using random-effects models, and derived YPLL summary estimate by calculating averaged values weighted by sample size of individual studies. Subgroup analyses were conducted for gender, geographical region, study period, a given age (set-age) for lifespan estimation and causes of death. The study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021241705). RESULTS: Eleven and 13 studies were included in the review for life expectancy (n = 96 601) and YPLL (n = 128 989), respectively. Pooled life expectancy was 66.88 years (95% CI 64.47-69.28; I2 = 99.9%, P < 0.001), was higher in women than men (70.51 (95% CI 68.61-72.41) v. 64.59 (95% CI 61.16-68.03); z = 2.00, P = 0.003) and was lowest in Africa. Weighted average YPLL was 12.89 years (95% CI 12.72-13.07), and was greatest in Africa. More YPLL was observed when lifespan was estimated at birth than at other set-age. YPLLs attributable to natural and unnatural deaths were 5.94 years (95% CI 5.81-6.07) and 5.69 years (95% CI 5.59-5.79), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Bipolar disorder is associated with substantially shortened life expectancy. Implementation of multilevel, targeted interventions is urgently needed to reduce this mortality gap.