Emergent structure and dynamics of tropical forest-grassland landscapes.

Previous work indicates that tropical forest can exist as an alternative stable state to savanna. Therefore, perturbation by climate change or human impact may lead to crossing of a tipping point beyond which there is rapid forest dieback that is not easily reversed. A hypothesized mechanism for such bistability is feedback between fire and vegetation, where fire spreads as a contagion process on grass patches. Theoretical models have largely implemented this mechanism implicitly, by assuming a threshold dependence of fire spread on flammable vegetation. Here, we show how the nonlinear dynamics and bistability emerge spontaneously, without assuming equations or thresholds for fire spread. We find that the forest geometry causes the nonlinearity that induces bistability. We demonstrate this in three steps. First, we model forest and fire as interacting contagion processes on grass patches, showing that spatial structure emerges due to two counteracting effects on the forest perimeter: forest expansion by dispersal and forest erosion by fires originating in adjacent grassland. Then, we derive a landscape-scale balance equation in which these two effects link forest geometry and dynamics: Forest expands proportionally to its perimeter, while it shrinks proportionally to its perimeter weighted by adjacent grassland area. Finally, we show that these perimeter quantities introduce nonlinearity in our balance equation and lead to bistability. Relying on the link between structure and dynamics, we propose a forest resilience indicator that could be used for targeted conservation or restoration.

Fast growth can counteract antibiotic susceptibility in shaping microbial community resilience to antibiotics.

Microbial communities often face external perturbations that can induce lasting changes in their composition and functions. Our understanding of how multispecies communities respond to perturbations such as antibiotics is limited, with susceptibility assays performed on individual, isolated species our primary guide in predicting community transitions. Here, we studied how bacterial growth dynamics can overcome differences in antibiotic susceptibility in determining community resilience: the recovery of the original community state following antibiotic exposure. We used an experimental community containing Corynebacterium ammoniagenes and Lactobacillus plantarum that displays two alternative stable states as a result of mutual inhibition. Although C. ammoniagenes was more susceptible to chloramphenicol in monocultures, we found that chloramphenicol exposure nonetheless led to a transition from the L. plantarum-dominated to the C. ammoniagenes-dominated community state. Combining theory and experiments, we demonstrated that growth rate differences between the two species made the L. plantarum-dominated community less resilient to several antibiotics with different mechanisms of action. Taking advantage of an observed cooperativity­a dependence on population abundance­in the growth of C. ammoniagenes, we next analyzed in silico scenarios that could compromise the high resilience of the C. ammoniagenes-dominated state. The model predicted that lowering the dispersal rate, through interacting with the growth at low population densities, could make the C. ammoniagenes state fragile against virtually any kind of antibiotic, a prediction that we confirmed experimentally. Our results highlight that species susceptibility to antibiotics is often uninformative of community resilience, as growth dynamics in the wake of antibiotic exposure can play a dominant role.

Emergent Spatial Patterns Can Indicate Upcoming Regime Shifts in a Realistic Model of Coral Community.

AbstractIncreased stress on coastal ecosystems, such as coral reefs, seagrasses, kelp forests, and other habitats, can make them shift toward degraded, often algae-dominated or barren communities. This has already occurred in many places around the world, calling for new approaches to identify where such regime shifts may be triggered. Theoretical work predicts that the spatial structure of habitat-forming species should exhibit changes prior to regime shifts, such as an increase in spatial autocorrelation. However, extending this theory to marine systems requires theoretical models connecting field-supported ecological mechanisms to data and spatial patterns at relevant scales. To do so, we built a spatially explicit model of subtropical coral communities based on experiments and long-term datasets from Rapa Nui (Easter Island, Chile), to test whether spatial indicators could signal upcoming regime shifts in coral communities. Spatial indicators anticipated degradation of coral communities following increases in frequency of bleaching events or coral mortality. However, they were generally unable to signal shifts that followed herbivore loss, a widespread and well-researched source of degradation, likely because herbivory, despite being critical for the maintenance of corals, had comparatively little effect on their self-organization. Informative trends were found under both equilibrium and nonequilibrium conditions but were determined by the type of direct neighbor interactions between corals, which remain relatively poorly documented. These inconsistencies show that while this approach is promising, its application to marine systems will require detailed information about the type of stressor and filling current gaps in our knowledge of interactions at play in coral communities.

Consequences of kelp forest ecosystem shifts and predictors of persistence through multiple stressors.

Ecological communities can be stable over multiple generations, or rapidly shift into structurally and functionally different configurations. In kelp forest ecosystems, overgrazing by sea urchins can abruptly shift forests into alternative states that are void of macroalgae and primarily dominated by actively grazing sea urchins. Beginning in 2014, a sea urchin outbreak along the central coast of California resulted in a patchy mosaic of remnant forests interspersed with sea urchin barrens. In this study, we used a 14-year subtidal monitoring dataset of invertebrates, algae, and fishes to explore changes in community structure associated with the loss of forests. We found that the spatial mosaic of barrens and forests resulted in a region-wide shift in community structure. However, the magnitude of kelp forest loss and taxonomic-level consequences were spatially heterogeneous. Taxonomic diversity declined across the region, but there were no declines in richness for any group, suggesting compositional redistribution. Baseline ecological and environmental conditions, and sea urchin behaviour, explained the persistence of forests through multiple stressors. These results indicate that spatial heterogeneity in preexisting ecological and environmental conditions can explain patterns of community change.

Soil fungal and bacterial communities reflect differently tundra vegetation state transitions and soil physico-chemical properties.

Strong disturbances may induce ecosystem transitions into new alternative states that sustain through plant-soil interactions, such as the transition of dwarf shrub-dominated into graminoid-dominated vegetation by herbivory in tundra. Little evidence exists on soil microbial communities in alternative states, and along the slow process of ecosystem return into the predisturbance state. We analysed vegetation, soil microbial communities and activities as well as soil physico-chemical properties in historical reindeer enclosures in northernmost Finland in the following plot types: control heaths in the surrounding tundra; graminoid-dominated; 'shifting'; and recovered dwarf shrub-dominated vegetation inside enclosures. Soil fungal communities followed changes in vegetation, whereas bacterial communities were more affected by soil physico-chemical properties. Graminoid plots were characterized by moulds, pathotrophs and dark septate endophytes. Ericoid mycorrhizal and saprotrophic fungi were typical for control and recovered plots. Soil microbial communities inside the enclosures showed historical contingency, as their spatial variation was high in recovered plots despite the vegetation being more homogeneous. Self-maintaining feedback loops between plant functional types, soil microbial communities, and carbon and nutrient mineralization act effectively to stabilize alternative vegetation states, but once predisturbance vegetation reestablishes itself, soil microbial communities and physico-chemical properties return back towards their predisturbance state.

Understanding change in benthic marine systems.

BACKGROUND: The unprecedented influence of human activities on natural ecosystems in the 21st century has resulted in increasingly frequent large-scale changes in ecological communities. This has heightened interest in understanding such changes and effective means to manage them. Accurate interpretation of state changes is challenging because of difficulties translating theory to empirical study, and most theory emphasizes systems near equilibrium, which may not be relevant in rapidly changing environments. SCOPE: We review concepts of long-transient stages and phase shifts between stable community states, both smooth, continuous and discontinuous shifts, and the relationships among them. Three principal challenges emerge when applying these concepts. The first is how to interpret observed change in communities - distinguishing multiple stable states from long transients, or reversible shifts in the phase portrait of single attractor systems. The second is how to quantify the magnitudes of three sources of variability that cause switches between community states: (1) 'noise' in species' abundances, (2) 'wiggle' in system parameters and (3) trends in parameters that affect the topography of the basin of attraction. The third challenge is how variability of the system shapes evidence used to interpret community changes. We outline a novel approach using critical length scales to potentially address these challenges. These concepts are highlighted by a review of recent examples involving macroalgae as key players in marine benthic ecosystems. CONCLUSIONS: Real-world examples show three or more stable configurations of ecological communities may exist for a given set of parameters, and transient stages may persist for long periods necessitating their respective consideration. The characteristic length scale (CLS) is a useful metric that uniquely identifies a community 'basin of attraction', enabling phase shifts to be distinguished from long transients. Variabilities of CLSs and time series data may likewise provide proactive management measures to mitigate phase shifts and loss of ecosystem services. Continued challenges remain in distinguishing continuous from discontinuous phase shifts because their respective dynamics lack unique signatures.

Functional diversity can facilitate the collapse of an undesirable ecosystem state.

Biodiversity may increase ecosystem resilience. However, we have limited understanding if this holds true for ecosystems that respond to gradual environmental change with abrupt shifts to an alternative state. We used a mathematical model of anoxic-oxic regime shifts and explored how trait diversity in three groups of bacteria influences resilience. We found that trait diversity did not always increase resilience: greater diversity in two of the groups increased but in one group decreased resilience of their preferred ecosystem state. We also found that simultaneous trait diversity in multiple groups often led to reduced or erased diversity effects. Overall, our results suggest that higher diversity can increase resilience but can also promote collapse when diversity occurs in a functional group that negatively influences the state it occurs in. We propose this mechanism as a potential management approach to facilitate the recovery of a desired ecosystem state.

Herbaceous vegetation responses to experimental fire in savannas and forests depend on biome and climate.

Fire-vegetation feedbacks potentially maintain global savanna and forest distributions. Accordingly, vegetation in savanna and forest ecosystems should have differential responses to fire, but fire response data for herbaceous vegetation have yet to be synthesized across biomes. Here, we examined herbaceous vegetation responses to experimental fire at 30 sites spanning four continents. Across a variety of metrics, herbaceous vegetation increased in abundance where fire was applied, with larger responses to fire in wetter and in cooler and/or less seasonal systems. Compared to forests, savannas were associated with a 4.8 (±0.4) times larger difference in herbaceous vegetation abundance for burned versus unburned plots. In particular, grass cover decreased with fire exclusion in savannas, largely via decreases in C4 grass cover, whereas changes in fire frequency had a relatively weak effect on grass cover in forests. These differential responses underscore the importance of fire for maintaining the vegetation structure of savannas and forests.

Nitrogen-Induced Hysteresis in Grassland Biodiversity: A Theoretical Test of Litter-Mediated Mechanisms.

AbstractThe global rise in anthropogenic reactive nitrogen and the negative impacts of N deposition on terrestrial plant diversity are well documented. The R* theory of resource competition predicts reversible decreases in plant diversity in response to N loading. However, empirical evidence for the reversibility of N-induced biodiversity loss is mixed. In a long-term N-enrichment experiment in Minnesota, a low-diversity state that emerged during N addition has persisted for decades after additions ceased. Hypothesized mechanisms preventing recovery of biodiversity include nutrient recycling, insufficient external seed supply, and litter inhibition of plant growth. Here, we present an ordinary differential equation model that unifies these mechanisms, produces bistability at intermediate N inputs, and qualitatively matches the observed hysteresis at Cedar Creek. Key features of the model, including native species' growth advantage in low-N conditions and limitation by litter accumulation, generalize from Cedar Creek to North American grasslands. Our results suggest that effective biodiversity restoration in these systems may require management beyond reducing N inputs, such as burning, grazing, haying, and seed additions. By coupling resource competition with an additional interspecific inhibitory process, the model also illustrates a general mechanism for bistability and hysteresis that may occur in multiple ecosystem types.

The Potential for Alternative Stable States in Food Webs Depends on Feedback Mechanism and Trait Diversity.

AbstractAlternative stable ecosystem states are possible under the same environmental conditions in models of two or three interacting species and an array of feedback loops. However, multispecies food webs might weaken the feedbacks loops that can create alternative stable states. To test how this potential depends on food web properties, we develop a many-species model where consumer Allee effects emerge from consumer-resource interactions. We evaluate the interactive effects of food web connectance, interspecific trait diversity, and two classes of feedbacks: specialized feedbacks, where consumption of individual resources declines at high resource abundance (e.g., from schooling or reaching size refugia), and aggregate feedbacks, where overall resource abundance reduces consumer recruitment (e.g., from resources enhancing competition or mortality experienced by recruits). We find that aggregate feedbacks maintain, and specialized feedbacks reduce, the potential for alternative states. Interspecific trait diversity decreases the prevalence of alternative stable states more for specialized than for aggregate feedbacks. Increasing food web connectance increases the potential for alternative stable states for aggregated feedbacks but decreases it for specialized feedbacks, where losing vulnerable consumers can cascade into food web collapses. Altogether, multispecies food webs can limit the set of processes that create alternative stable states and impede consumer recovery from disturbance.

Effects of season length and uniparental care efficacy on the evolution of parental care.

Parental care patterns differ enormously among and even within species. This is exemplified by Chinese penduline tits Remiz consobrinus, where biparental care, female-only care, male-only care and biparental desertion all occur in the same population; moreover, the distribution of these care patterns differs systematically between populations. The eco-evolutionary determinants of this diversity are largely unknown. We developed an individual-based model that allows us to investigate the effects of season length and offspring needs (expressed by the efficacy with which a clutch can be raised by a single parent) on the evolution of parental care patterns. The model is largely conceptual, aiming at general conclusions. However, to keep the model realistic, its set-up and the choice of parameters are motivated by field studies on Chinese penduline tits. Exploring a wide range of parameters, we investigate how parental care patterns are affected by season length and offspring needs and whether and under what conditions diverse parental care patterns can stably coexist. We report five main findings. First, under a broad range of conditions, different care patterns (e.g. male care and biparental care) coexist at equilibrium. Second, for the same parameters, alternative evolutionary equilibria are possible; this can explain differences in care patterns across populations. Third, rapid evolutionary transitions can occur between alternative equilibria; this can explain the often-reported evolutionary lability of parental care patterns. Fourth, season length has a strong but nonmonotonic effect on the evolved care patterns. Fifth, when uniparental care efficacy is low, biparental care tends to evolve; however, in many scenarios uniparental care is still common at equilibrium. In addition, our study sheds new light on Trivers' hypothesis that the sex with the highest prezygotic investment is predestined to invest more postzygotically as well. Our study highlights that diversity in parental care can readily evolve and it shows that even in the absence of environmental change parental care patterns can be evolutionary labile. In the presence of directional environmental change, systematic shifts in care patterns are to be expected.

Bistability in the redox chemistry of sediments and oceans.

For most of Earth's history, the ocean's interior was pervasively anoxic and showed occasional shifts in ocean redox chemistry between iron-buffered and sulfide-buffered states. These redox transitions are most often explained by large changes in external inputs, such as a strongly altered delivery of iron and sulfate to the ocean, or major shifts in marine productivity. Here, we propose that redox shifts can also arise from small perturbations that are amplified by nonlinear positive feedbacks within the internal iron and sulfur cycling of the ocean. Combining observational evidence with biogeochemical modeling, we show that both sedimentary and aquatic systems display intrinsic iron-sulfur bistability, which is tightly linked to the formation of reduced iron-sulfide minerals. The possibility of tipping points in the redox state of sediments and oceans, which allow large and nonreversible geochemical shifts to arise from relatively small changes in organic carbon input, has important implications for the interpretation of the geological rock record and the causes and consequences of major evolutionary transitions in the history of Earth's biosphere.

Floristic evidence for alternative biome states in tropical Africa.

The idea that tropical forest and savanna are alternative states is crucial to how we manage these biomes and predict their future under global change. Large-scale empirical evidence for alternative stable states is limited, however, and comes mostly from the multimodal distribution of structural aspects of vegetation. These approaches have been criticized, as structure alone cannot separate out wetter savannas from drier forests for example, and there are also technical challenges to mapping vegetation structure in unbiased ways. Here, we develop an alternative approach to delimit the climatic envelope of the two biomes in Africa using tree species lists gathered for a large number of forest and savanna sites distributed across the continent. Our analyses confirm extensive climatic overlap of forest and savanna, supporting the alternative stable states hypothesis for Africa, and this result is corroborated by paleoecological evidence. Further, we find the two biomes to have highly divergent tree species compositions and to represent alternative compositional states. This allowed us to classify tree species as forest vs. savanna specialists, with some generalist species that span both biomes. In conjunction with georeferenced herbarium records, we mapped the forest and savanna distributions across Africa and quantified their environmental limits, which are primarily related to precipitation and seasonality, with a secondary contribution of fire. These results are important for the ongoing efforts to restore African ecosystems, which depend on accurate biome maps to set appropriate targets for the restored states but also provide empirical evidence for broad-scale bistability.

Alternations in the foraging behaviour of a primary consumer drive patch transition dynamics in a temperate rocky reef ecosystem.

Understanding the role of animal behaviour in linking individuals to ecosystems is central to advancing knowledge surrounding community structure, stability and transition dynamics. Using 22 years of long-term subtidal monitoring, we show that an abrupt outbreak of purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus), which occurred in 2014 in southern Monterey Bay, California, USA, was primarily driven by a behavioural shift, not by a demographic response (i.e. survival or recruitment). We then tracked the foraging behaviour of sea urchins for 3 years following the 2014 outbreak and found that behaviour is strongly associated with patch state (forest or barren) transition dynamics. Finally, in 2019, we observed a remarkable recovery of kelp forests at a deep rocky reef. We show that this recovery was associated with sea urchin movement from the deep reef to shallow water. These results demonstrate how changes in grazer behaviour can facilitate patch dynamics and dramatically restructure communities and ecosystems.

Dynamic Properties of the Intestinal Ecosystem Call for Combination Therapies, Targeting Inflammation and Microbiota, in Ulcerative Colitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Intestinal microbiota-host interactions play a major role in health and disease. This has been documented at the microbiota level ("dysbiosis" in chronic immune-mediated diseases) and through the study of specific bacteria-host interactions but rarely at the level of intestinal ecosystem dynamics. However, understanding the behavior of this ecosystem may be key to the successful treatment of disease. We recently postulated that health and disease represent alternative stable states of the intestinal ecosystem (different configurations that can exist under identical external conditions), which would require adapted strategies in disease treatment. Here, we examine if alternative stable states indeed exist in this ecosystem and if they could affect remission from ulcerative colitis (UC). METHODS: We analyzed data from a study on pediatric UC. The data reflect current treatment practice following the recruitment of treatment-naive patients with new-onset disease. Patients received personalized anti-inflammatory treatments over a period of 1 year. Stool samples at 0, 4, 12, and 52 weeks allowed an estimation of microbiota status (through 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing) and host inflammatory status (through the measurement of fecal calprotectin levels). RESULTS: We identify 4 microbiota states and 4 host states. Longitudinal data show that the improvement of inflammatory status is accompanied by an improvement of microbiota status. However, they also provide strong indications that both improvements are retarded or blocked by alternative states barriers. CONCLUSIONS: Our observations strongly suggest that inflammation suppression should be combined with microbiota management where possible to improve the efficacy of UC treatment.

Southeast Alaskan kelp forests: inferences of process from large-scale patterns of variation in space and time.

Humans were considered external drivers in much foundational ecological research. A recognition that humans are embedded in the complex interaction networks we study can provide new insight into our ecological paradigms. Here, we use time-series data spanning three decades to explore the effects of human harvesting on otter-urchin-kelp trophic cascades in southeast Alaska. These effects were inferred from variation in sea urchin and kelp abundance following the post fur trade repatriation of otters and a subsequent localized reduction of otters by human harvest in one location. In an example of a classic trophic cascade, otter repatriation was followed by a 99% reduction in urchin biomass density and a greater than 99% increase in kelp density region wide. Recent spatially concentrated harvesting of otters was associated with a localized 70% decline in otter abundance in one location, with urchins increasing and kelps declining in accordance with the spatial pattern of otter occupancy within that region. While the otter-urchin-kelp trophic cascade has been associated with alternative community states at the regional scale, this research highlights how small-scale variability in otter occupancy, ostensibly due to spatial variability in harvesting or the risk landscape for otters, can result in within-region patchiness in these community states.

Hydroclimatic adaptation critical to the resilience of tropical forests.

Forest and savanna ecosystems naturally exist as alternative stable states. The maximum capacity of these ecosystems to absorb perturbations without transitioning to the other alternative stable state is referred to as 'resilience'. Previous studies have determined the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems to hydroclimatic changes predominantly based on space-for-time substitution. This substitution assumes that the contemporary spatial frequency distribution of ecosystems' tree cover structure holds across time. However, this assumption is problematic since ecosystem adaptation over time is ignored. Here we empirically study tropical forests' stability and hydroclimatic adaptation dynamics by examining remotely sensed tree cover change (ΔTC; aboveground ecosystem structural change) and root zone storage capacity (Sr ; buffer capacity towards water-stress) over the last two decades. We find that ecosystems at high (>75%) and low (<10%) tree cover adapt by instigating considerable subsoil investment, and therefore experience limited ΔTC-signifying stability. In contrast, unstable ecosystems at intermediate (30%-60%) tree cover are unable to exploit the same level of adaptation as stable ecosystems, thus showing considerable ΔTC. Ignoring this adaptive mechanism can underestimate the resilience of the forest ecosystems, which we find is largely underestimated in the case of the Congo rainforests. The results from this study emphasise the importance of the ecosystem's temporal dynamics and adaptation in inferring and assessing the risk of forest-savannah transitions under rapid hydroclimatic change.

Path-dependent institutions drive alternative stable states in conservation.

Understanding why some renewable resources are overharvested while others are conserved remains an important challenge. Most explanations focus on institutional or ecological differences among resources. Here, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence that conservation and overharvest can be alternative stable states within the same exclusive-resource management system because of path-dependent processes, including slow institutional adaptation. Surprisingly, this theory predicts that the alternative states of strong conservation or overharvest are most likely for resources that were previously thought to be easily conserved under optimal management or even open access. Quantitative analyses of harvest rates from 217 intensely managed fisheries supports the predictions. Fisheries' harvest rates also showed transient dynamics characteristic of path dependence, as well as convergence to the alternative stable state after unexpected transitions. This statistical evidence for path dependence differs from previous empirical support that was based largely on case studies, experiments, and distributional analyses. Alternative stable states in conservation appear likely outcomes for many cooperatively managed renewable resources, which implies that achieving conservation outcomes hinges on harnessing existing policy tools to navigate transitions.

Anticipating critical transitions in epithelial-hybrid-mesenchymal cell-fate determination.

In the vicinity of a tipping point, critical transitions occur when small changes in an input condition cause sudden, large, and often irreversible changes in the state of a system. Many natural systems ranging from ecosystems to molecular biosystems are known to exhibit critical transitions in their response to stochastic perturbations. In diseases, an early prediction of upcoming critical transitions from a healthy to a disease state by using early-warning signals is of prime interest due to potential application in forecasting disease onset. Here, we analyze cell-fate transitions between different phenotypes (epithelial, hybrid-epithelial/mesenchymal [E/M], and mesenchymal states) that are implicated in cancer metastasis and chemoresistance. These transitions are mediated by a mutually inhibitory feedback loop-microRNA-200/ZEB-driven by the levels of transcription factor SNAIL. We find that the proximity to tipping points enabling these transitions among different phenotypes can be captured by critical slowing down-based early-warning signals, calculated from the trajectory of ZEB messenger RNA level. Further, the basin stability analysis reveals the unexpectedly large basin of attraction for a hybrid-E/M phenotype. Finally, we identified mechanisms that can potentially elude the transition to a hybrid-E/M phenotype. Overall, our results unravel the early-warning signals that can be used to anticipate upcoming epithelial-hybrid-mesenchymal transitions. With the emerging evidence about the hybrid-E/M phenotype being a key driver of metastasis, drug resistance, and tumor relapse, our results suggest ways to potentially evade these transitions, reducing the fitness of cancer cells and restricting tumor aggressiveness.

Fire frequency, state change and hysteresis in tallgrass prairie.

Hysteresis is a fundamental characteristic of alternative stable state theory, yet evidence of hysteresis is rare. In mesic grasslands, fire frequency regulates transition from grass- to shrub-dominated system states. It is uncertain, however, if increasing fire frequency can reverse shrub expansion, or if grass-shrub dynamics exhibit hysteresis. We implemented annual burning in two infrequently burned grasslands and ceased burning in two grasslands burned annually. With annual fires, grassland composition converged on that of long-term annually burned vegetation due to rapid recovery of grass cover, although shrubs persisted. When annual burning ceased, shrub cover increased, but community composition did not converge with a long-term infrequently burned reference site because of stochastic and lagged dispersal by shrubs, reflecting hysteresis. Our results demonstrated that annual burning can slow, but not reverse, shrub encroachment. In addition, reversing fire frequencies resulted in hysteresis because vegetation trajectories from grassland to shrubland differed from those of shrubland to grassland.