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1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(3): e2206188120, 2024 Jan 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38190537

RESUMO

What explains human consequences of weather-related disaster? Here, we explore how core socioeconomic, political, and security conditions shape flood-induced displacement worldwide since 2000. In-sample regression analysis shows that extreme displacement levels are more likely in contexts marked by low national income levels, nondemocratic political systems, high local economic activity, and prevalence of armed conflict. The analysis also reveals large residual differences across continents, where flood-induced displacement in the Global South often is much more widespread than direct human exposure measures would suggest. However, these factors have limited influence on our ability to accurately predict flood displacement on new data, pointing to important, hard-to-operationalize heterogeneity in flood impacts across contexts and critical data limitations. Although results are consistent with an interpretation that the sustainable development agenda is beneficial for disaster risk reduction, better data on societal consequences of natural hazards are critically needed to support evidence-based decision-making.

2.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(44): e2306497120, 2023 Oct 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37844215

RESUMO

Despite significant research on the effects of stress on the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, questions remain regarding long-term impacts of large-scale stressors. Leveraging data on exposure to an unanticipated major natural disaster, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, we provide causal evidence of its imprint on hair cortisol levels fourteen years later. Data are drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery, a population-representative longitudinal study of tsunami survivors who were living along the coast of Aceh, Indonesia, when the tsunami hit. Annual rounds of data, collected before, the year after and 2 y after the disaster provide detailed information about tsunami exposures and self-reported symptoms of post-traumatic stress. Hair samples collected 14 y after the tsunami from a sample of adult participants provide measures of cortisol levels, integrated over several months. Hair cortisol concentrations are substantially and significantly lower among females who were living, at the time of the tsunami, in communities directly damaged by the tsunami, in comparison with similar females living in other, nearby communities. Differences among males are small and not significant. Cortisol concentrations are lowest among those females living in damaged communities who reported elevated post-traumatic stress symptoms persistently for two years after the tsunami, indicating that the negative effects of exposure were largest for them. Low cortisol is also associated with contemporaneous reports of poor self-rated general and psychosocial health. Taken together, the evidence points to dysregulation in the HPA axis and "burnout" among these females fourteen years after exposure to the disaster.


Assuntos
Esgotamento Psicológico , Sistema Hipotálamo-Hipofisário , Sistema Hipófise-Suprarrenal , Tsunamis , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Hidrocortisona , Sistema Hipotálamo-Hipofisário/fisiologia , Oceano Índico , Estudos Longitudinais , Sistema Hipófise-Suprarrenal/fisiologia , Esgotamento Psicológico/fisiopatologia
3.
Annu Rev Psychol ; 75: 573-599, 2024 Jan 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37566760

RESUMO

Disasters cause sweeping damage, hardship, and loss of life. In this article, we first consider the dominant psychological approach to disasters and its narrow focus on psychopathology (e.g., posttraumatic stress disorder). We then review research on a broader approach that has identified heterogeneous, highly replicable trajectories of outcome, the most common being stable mental health or resilience. We review trajectory research for different types of disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. Next, we consider correlates of the resilience trajectory and note their paradoxically limited ability to predict future resilient outcomes. Research using machine learning algorithms improved prediction but has not yet illuminated the mechanism behind resilient adaptation. To that end, we propose a more direct psychological explanation for resilience based on research on the motivational and mechanistic components of regulatory flexibility. Finally, we consider how future research might leverage new computational approaches to better capture regulatory flexibility in real time.


Assuntos
Desastres , Resiliência Psicológica , Humanos , Pandemias , Saúde Mental , Motivação
4.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(43): e2119399119, 2022 10 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36252045

RESUMO

Recent record rainfall and flood events have prompted increased attention to flood impacts on human systems. Information regarding flood effects on food security is of particular importance for humanitarian organizations and is especially valuable across Africa's rural areas that contribute to regional food supplies. We quantitatively evaluate where and to what extent flooding impacts food security across Africa, using a Granger causality analysis and panel modeling approaches. Within our modeled areas, we find that ∼12% of the people that experienced food insecurity from 2009 to 2020 had their food security status affected by flooding. Furthermore, flooding and its associated meteorological conditions can simultaneously degrade food security locally while enhancing it at regional spatial scales, leading to large variations in overall food security outcomes. Dedicated data collection at the intersection of flood events and associated food security measures across different spatial and temporal scales are required to better characterize the extent of flood impact and inform preparedness, response, and recovery needs.


Assuntos
Inundações , Abastecimento de Alimentos , África , Coleta de Dados , Segurança Alimentar , Humanos
5.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(8)2022 02 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35135891

RESUMO

With rapid urbanization and increasing climate risks, enhancing the resilience of urban systems has never been more important. Despite the availability of massive datasets of human behavior (e.g., mobile phone data, satellite imagery), studies on disaster resilience have been limited to using static measures as proxies for resilience. However, static metrics have significant drawbacks such as their inability to capture the effects of compounding and accumulating disaster shocks; dynamic interdependencies of social, economic, and infrastructure systems; and critical transitions and regime shifts, which are essential components of the complex disaster resilience process. In this article, we argue that the disaster resilience literature needs to take the opportunities of big data and move toward a different research direction, which is to develop data-driven, dynamical complex systems models of disaster resilience. Data-driven complex systems modeling approaches could overcome the drawbacks of static measures and allow us to quantitatively model the dynamic recovery trajectories and intrinsic resilience characteristics of communities in a generic manner by leveraging large-scale and granular observations. This approach brings a paradigm shift in modeling the disaster resilience process and its linkage with the recovery process, paving the way to answering important questions for policy applications via counterfactual analysis and simulations.

6.
Am J Epidemiol ; 193(1): 36-46, 2024 Jan 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37442811

RESUMO

Identifying subpopulations that are particularly vulnerable to long-term adverse health consequences of disaster-related trauma is needed. We examined whether adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) potentiate the association between disaster-related trauma and subsequent cognitive disability among older adult disaster survivors. Data were from a prospective cohort study of older adults who survived the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. The baseline survey pre-dated the disaster by 7 months. We included participants who completed follow-up surveys (2013 and 2016) and did not have a cognitive disability before the disaster (n = 602). Disaster-related traumas (i.e., home loss, loss of friends or pets) and ACEs were retrospectively assessed in 2013. Cognitive disability levels in 2016 were objectively assessed. After adjusting for pre-disaster characteristics using a machine learning-based estimation approach, home loss (0.19, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.09, 0.28) was, on average, associated with greater cognitive disability. Among individuals with ACEs, home loss was associated with even higher cognitive disability levels (0.64, 95% CI: 0.24, 1.03). Losses of friends (0.18, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.32) and pets (0.13, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.25) were associated with higher cognitive disability levels only among those with ACEs. Our findings suggest that individuals with a history of ACEs may be particularly vulnerable to adverse health consequences related to disasters.


Assuntos
Experiências Adversas da Infância , Desastres , Humanos , Idoso , Estudos Prospectivos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Sobreviventes , Cognição
7.
BMC Med ; 22(1): 188, 2024 May 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38715068

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Floods are the most frequent weather-related disaster, causing significant health impacts worldwide. Limited studies have examined the long-term consequences of flooding exposure. METHODS: Flood data were retrieved from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory and linked with health data from 499,487 UK Biobank participants. To calculate the annual cumulative flooding exposure, we multiplied the duration and severity of each flood event and then summed these values for each year. We conducted a nested case-control analysis to evaluate the long-term effect of flooding exposure on all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Each case was matched with eight controls. Flooding exposure was modelled using a distributed lag non-linear model to capture its nonlinear and lagged effects. RESULTS: The risk of all-cause mortality increased by 6.7% (odds ratio (OR): 1.067, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.063-1.071) for every unit increase in flood index after confounders had been controlled for. The mortality risk from neurological and mental diseases was negligible in the current year, but strongest in the lag years 3 and 4. By contrast, the risk of mortality from suicide was the strongest in the current year (OR: 1.018, 95% CI: 1.008-1.028), and attenuated to lag year 5. Participants with higher levels of education and household income had a higher estimated risk of death from most causes whereas the risk of suicide-related mortality was higher among participants who were obese, had lower household income, engaged in less physical activity, were non-moderate alcohol consumers, and those living in more deprived areas. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to floods is associated with an increased risk of mortality. The health consequences of flooding exposure would vary across different periods after the event, with different profiles of vulnerable populations identified for different causes of death. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the long-term impacts of flooding exposure.


Assuntos
Inundações , Humanos , Inundações/mortalidade , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Causas de Morte , Fatores de Risco
8.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38907087

RESUMO

PURPOSE: Little is known about colorectal cancer screening in 9/11 World Trade Center (WTC)-exposed populations. We utilized survey data from the WTC Health Registry (WTCHR) to examine associations between enrollees' characteristics and colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. METHODS: We studied 22,061 enrollees aged 50-75 who completed the WTCHR follow-up survey in 2015-2016. Those with a history of CRC were excluded. Screening was defined as a self-reported, routine colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy during the 12-month period prior to the survey. Multivariable log binomial regression identified factors associated with screening in the 12 months preceding the survey. We also stratified by age group. RESULTS: Of 22,061 enrollees, 23% were screened, with largely similar rates across age groups. Higher screening percentages were seen in selected groups including non-Hispanic Black enrollees (26.4%), males (24.3%), those married/living with a partner (24.1%), those with a higher household income (≥ $150 k, 25.4%), those who received services from the WTC Health Program (25.6%), and those with greater perceived social support (24.4%). On multivariable analyses, non-Hispanic Black enrollees [adjusted relative risk (aRR) = 1.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-1.42] were significantly more likely to report screening, even after stratifying by age group. Hispanic enrollees, those with a higher household income, those with increased perceived social support, and those with diagnosed medical conditions under 70 years old were also associated with screening. CONCLUSION: We found that non-Hispanic Black compared with non-Hispanic White enrollees were more likely to obtain screening for CRC. Continued efforts to promote health and wellness of WTC-exposed population is essential.

9.
Am J Kidney Dis ; 2024 Jun 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38851445

RESUMO

The global burden of kidney disease is increasing, paralleled by a rising number of natural and man-made crises. During these tumultuous times, accessing vital health care resources becomes challenging, posing significant risks to individuals, particularly those with kidney disease. This review delves into the impact of crises on kidney disease, with a particular focus on acute kidney injury (AKI), kidney failure, and kidney transplant. Patients experiencing crush injuries leading to AKI may encounter delayed diagnosis due to the chaotic nature of disasters and limited availability of resources. In chronic crises such as conflicts, patients with kidney failure are particularly affected, and deviations from dialysis standards are unfortunately common, impacting morbidity and mortality rates. Additionally, crises also disrupt access to kidney transplants, potentially compromising transplant outcomes. This review underscores the critical importance of preparedness measures and proactive management for kidney disease in crisis settings. Collaborative efforts among government bodies, rescue teams, health care providers, humanitarian agencies, and nongovernmental organizations are imperative to ensure equitable and reasonable care for kidney disease patients during times of crises, with the aim of saving lives and improving outcomes.

10.
Psychol Sci ; 35(6): 597-612, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38648277

RESUMO

This study investigated how relocation patterns affect disaster survivors' psychological stress on the diverse durations and spaces of relocation. It analyzed a 10-year data set of 1,236 families affected by 2009's Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan, identifying six relocation patterns through dynamic time warping (DTW). A hierarchical linear model was utilized, revealing the discernible impacts of environmental factors, sociocultural factors, and family-level socioeconomic factors on psychological stress. The study revealed that survivors who quickly found stable residences after the disaster initially experienced lower stress levels, but in the long term, their stress increased. Conversely, those with unstable residences experienced higher initial stress but lower long-term stress. Comparing similar patterns, we found that survivors who had more time for preparation and who sought opportunities, coped, or adapted to secondary stressors before long-distance relocation faced lower stress levels. These findings suggest that relocation patterns have a greater impact on the psychosocial stress of disaster survivors than time or relocation distance.


Assuntos
Tempestades Ciclônicas , Desastres , Estresse Psicológico , Sobreviventes , Humanos , Estresse Psicológico/psicologia , Feminino , Masculino , Adulto , Taiwan , Sobreviventes/psicologia , Adaptação Psicológica , Fatores Socioeconômicos
11.
Trop Med Int Health ; 29(8): 731-738, 2024 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38962808

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to analyse the epidemiological profile of global climate-related disasters in terms of morbidity and mortality, as well as to examine their temporal trends. METHOD: This cross-sectional study analysed climate-related global disasters from 2000 to 2021, utilising definitions and criteria from the United Nations Strategy for Disaster Reduction and the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Data were sourced from the EM-DAT database. The study assessed trends over the entire period and compared them with previous years (1978-2000). RESULTS: A total of 7398 climate-related disasters were recorded, with hydrological disasters being the most frequent, followed by meteorological and climatological disasters. Statistically significant differences were noted in the average rates of affected individuals and injuries per million inhabitants. No significant trends were found in mortality rates, but the frequency trends for the entire period (1978-2021) and the subperiod (1978-2000) were increasing and statistically significant. However, the trend from 2000 onwards showed a non-significant decrease, potentially reflecting better disaster preparedness and response strategies under the Hyogo and Sendai Framework. CONCLUSION: The study highlights hydrological disasters as the most frequent and deadliest climate-related events, with climatological disasters affecting and injuring the most people. The lack of standardised criteria for disaster inclusion in databases presents a significant challenge in comparing results and analysing trends. Establishing uniform inclusion criteria is crucial for effective data analysis and disaster management.


Assuntos
Desastres , Humanos , Estudos Transversais , Clima , Saúde Global , Mudança Climática
12.
Br J Nutr ; 131(9): 1648-1656, 2024 May 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38258409

RESUMO

Traumatic experiences from disasters have enduring effects on health, both directly and indirectly by influencing health behaviours. Among potential pathways, the impact of disaster-related trauma on dietary patterns has been understudied. This study investigated the relationship between disaster-related trauma and dietary inflammatory index (DII®), and how these relationships differed by gender and whether they prepare meal by themselves or not among older survivors of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (n 1375). Dietary data were collected in 2020 using a brief-type self-administered diet history questionnaire, from which we derived a dietary inflammatory index (DII®) based on twenty-six food/nutrient items, where higher scores indicate pro-inflammatory (i.e. unhealthy) diet. We found that the experience of housing damage due to the earthquake and tsunami was associated with slightly higher DII scores (coef. = 0·38, 95 % CI -0·05, 0·81). Specifically, women who cooked by themselves tended to have higher DII when they experienced housing damage (coef. = 1·33, 95 %CI -0·63, 3·28). On the other hand, loss of friends was associated with a lower DII score (coef. = -0·28, 95 % CI -0·54, -0·01). These findings highlight the importance of providing support to groups who are at increased risk of deterioration in dietary quality in the aftermath of disasters.


Assuntos
Dieta , Desastres , Terremotos , Inflamação , Sobreviventes , Tsunamis , Humanos , Feminino , Japão/epidemiologia , Masculino , Idoso , Sobreviventes/psicologia , Dieta/efeitos adversos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Habitação
13.
Conserv Biol ; 38(3): e14230, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38111965

RESUMO

Environmental crises, such as wildfires, can cause major losses of human life, infrastructure, biodiversity, and cultural values. In many such situations, incident controllers must make fateful choices about what to protect-and hence what to abandon. With an online representative survey of >2000 adult Australians, we investigated social attitudes to this dilemma. We used best-worst scaling to assess preferences across a set of 11 assets representing human life, infrastructure, biodiversity, and cultural values. Survey respondents overwhelmingly prioritized a single human life (best-worst score of 6647 out of possible score ranging from -10695 to 10695), even if that choice resulted in extinction of other species. Inanimate (replaceable) objects were accorded lowest priority (best-worst scores of -4655 for a shed and -3242 for a house). Among biodiversity assets, respondents prioritized protecting a population of the iconic koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) (best-worst score of 1913) ahead of preventing the extinction of a snail (score -329) and a plant species (-226). These results variably support current policy in that they emphasize the importance the community places on protection of human life, but results diverged from conventional practice in rating some biodiversity assets ahead of infrastructure. The preference for protecting a population of koalas ahead of action taken to prevent the extinction of an invertebrate and plant species corroborates previous research reporting biases in the way people value nature. If noncharismatic species are not to be treated as expendable, then the case for preventing their extinction needs to be better made to the community. Given the increasing global incidence of high-severity wildfires, further sampling of societal preferences among diverse asset types is needed to inform planning, policy, and practice relating to wildfire. Other preemptive targeted management actions (such as translocations) are needed to conserve biodiversity, especially noniconic species, likely to be imperiled by catastrophic events.


Valoración social de la biodiversidad en relación con otros tipos de activos en riesgo durante los incendios Resumen Las crisis ambientales, como los incendios, pueden causar pérdidas mayores de infraestructura, vida humana, biodiversidad y valores culturales. En muchas de estas situaciones, quienes controlan el incidente deben tomar decisiones fatídicas sobre qué proteger y, por lo tanto, qué abandonar. Aplicamos en línea una encuesta representativa a más de 2000 australianos adultos para investigar las actitudes sociales ante este dilema. Usamos la escala de mejor­peor para valorar las preferencias en once activos que representaban la vida humana, infraestructura, biodiversidad y valores culturales. Los encuestados priorizaron de manera abrumadora la vida humana (puntaje de 6647 en la escala de mejor­peor con un puntaje posible entre ­10695 y 10695), incluso si esto implicaba la extinción de otras especies. Los objetos inanimados (reemplazables) fueron los de menor prioridad (puntaje de ­4655 para una choza y ­3242 para una casa). Entre los activos de biodiversidad, los encuestados priorizaron la protección de una población del icónico koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) (puntaje de 1913) por encima de la extinción de una especie de caracol (­329) y una de planta (­226). Estos resultados respaldan de forma variada la política actual pues resaltan la importancia que la comunidad le da a la protección de la vida humana, pero los resultados discreparon de la práctica convencional al puntear a algunos activos de la biodiversidad por encima de la infraestructura. La preferencia por proteger la población de koalas por encima de evitar la extinción de una especie invertebrada y una especie botánica corrobora las investigaciones anteriores que reportan un sesgo en la forma en la que la población valora la naturaleza. Si queremos que las especies carismáticas no sean tratadas como prescindibles, entonces se le debe plantear de mejor manera a la población el caso para prevenir su extinción. Con el aumento en la incidencia mundial de incendios de gravedad, se necesita un mayor muestreo de las preferencias sociales por los diferentes tipos de activos para guiar la planeación, políticas y prácticas en relación con los incendios. Se requieren otras acciones de manejo preventivo enfocado (como las reubicaciones) para conservar la biodiversidad con probabilidad de estar en peligro durante eventos catastróficos, especialmente las especies que no son icónicas.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Incêndios Florestais , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Austrália , Humanos , Valores Sociais
14.
Crit Care ; 28(1): 84, 2024 03 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38493142

RESUMO

Considerable political, structural, environmental and epidemiological change will affect high socioeconomic index (SDI) countries over the next 25 years. These changes will impact healthcare provision and consequently trauma systems. This review attempts to anticipate the potential impact on trauma systems and how they could adapt to meet the changing priorities. The first section describes possible epidemiological trajectories. A second section exposes existing governance and funding challenges, how these can be met, and the need to incorporate data and information science into a learning and adaptive trauma system. The last section suggests an international harmonization of trauma education to improve care standards, optimize immediate and long-term patient needs and enhance disaster preparedness and crisis resilience. By demonstrating their capacity for adaptation, trauma systems can play a leading role in the transformation of care systems to tackle future health challenges.


Assuntos
Planejamento em Desastres , Humanos , Atenção à Saúde , Fatores Socioeconômicos
15.
Health Econ ; 33(1): 121-136, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37823589

RESUMO

The Great Chinese Famine (1959-1961) claimed tens of millions of lives. This study aims to causally examine the long-term mental health cost it imposed on those who survived. To estimate the nationwide total mental health cost, we use a novel dataset to measure the famine intensity of every prefecture-level region, match it to a nationally representative survey, and then identify the long-term effects of the famine on the depression of rural residents then in the early years of their lives. Difference-in-differences estimates reveal that a one-standard-deviation rise in the experienced famine intensity increased a standard measure of depression by about 0.039 and 0.064 if the individual experienced the famine at ages 0-2 and 3-5, respectively. This translates into roughly 7.99 million cases of severe depressive symptoms caused by the famine, which is likely an undercount. Examining the mechanisms behind the large effects, we find that important roles were played by starvation experience and childhood maltreatment, as well as the primary mediators including other health outcomes, economic status, and social relationship. Our findings shed light on how large-scale food security failures impact the mental well-being of the survivors.


Assuntos
Fome Epidêmica , Inanição , Humanos , Saúde Mental , Inanição/epidemiologia , Inquéritos e Questionários , China/epidemiologia
16.
Environ Res ; 246: 118171, 2024 Apr 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38215925

RESUMO

Coastal arid regions are similar to deserts, where it receives significantly less rainfall, less than 10 cm. Perhaps the world's worst natural disaster, coastal area droughts, can only be detected using reliable monitoring systems. Creating a reliable drought forecast model and figuring out how well various models can analyze drought factors in coastal arid regions are two of the biggest obstacles in this field. Different time-series methods and machine-learning models have traditionally been utilized in forecasting strategies. Deep learning is promising when describing the complex interplay between coastal drought and its contributing variables. Considering the possibility of enhancing our understanding of drought features, applying deep learning approaches has yet to be tried widely. The current investigation employs a deep learning strategy. Coastal Drought indices are commonly used to comprehend the situation better; hence the Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) was used since it incorporates temperatures and precipitation into its computation. An integrated coastal drought monitoring model was presented and validated using convolutional long short-term memory with self-attention (SA-CLSTM). The Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset, which spans 1901-2018, was mined for the drought index and predictor data. To learn how LSTM forecasting could enhance drought forecasting, we analyzed the findings regarding numerous drought parameters (drought severity, drought category, or geographic variation). The model's ability to predict drought intensity was assessed using the Coefficient of Determination (R2), the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Both the SPEI 1 and SPEI 3 examples had R2 values more than 0.99 for the model. The range of predicted outcomes for each drought group was analyzed using a multi-class Receiver Operating Characteristic based Area under Curves (ROC-AUC) method. The research showed that the AUC for SPEI 1 was 0.99 and for SPEI 3, 0.99. The study's results indicate progress over machine learning models for one month in advance, accounting for various drought conditions. This work's findings may be used to mitigate drought, and additional improvement can be achieved by testing other models.


Assuntos
Aprendizado Profundo , Secas , Temperatura , Previsões , Aprendizado de Máquina
17.
Environ Res ; 250: 118436, 2024 Jun 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38354890

RESUMO

Extreme weather events in South and Southeast Asia exert profound psychosocial impacts, amplifying the prevalence of mental illness. Despite their substantial consequences, there is a dearth of research and representation in the current literature. We conducted a systematic review of observational studies published between January 1, 2000, and January 20, 2024, to examine the impact of extreme weather events on the mental health of the South and Southeast Asian population. Quality assessment of the included studies was conducted using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) quality appraisal checklist. The search retrieved 70 studies that met the inclusion criteria and were included in our review. Most were from India (n = 22), and most used a cross-sectional study design (n = 55). Poor mental health outcomes were associated with six types of extreme weather events: floods, storm surges, typhoons, cyclones, extreme heat, and riverbank erosion. Most studies (n = 41) reported short-term outcome measurements. Findings included outcomes with predictable symptomatology, including post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, general psychological distress, emotional distress and suicide. Limited studies on long-term effects showed higher mental disorders after floods and typhoons, while cyclone-exposed individuals had more short-term distress. Notably, the review identified over 50 risk factors influencing mental health outcomes, categorized into six classes: demographic, economic, health, disaster exposure, psychological, and community factors. However, the quantitative evidence linking extreme weather events to mental health was limited due to a lack of longitudinal data, lack of control groups, and the absence of objective exposure measurements. The review found some compelling evidence linking extreme weather events to adverse mental health in the South and Southeast Asia region. Future research should focus on longitudinal study design to identify the specific stressors and climatic factors influencing the relationship between climate extremes and mental health in this region.


Assuntos
Clima Extremo , Saúde Mental , Humanos , Saúde Mental/estatística & dados numéricos , Sudeste Asiático/epidemiologia , Transtornos Mentais/epidemiologia , Estudos Observacionais como Assunto
18.
Environ Health ; 23(1): 31, 2024 Mar 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38519920

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In early October 2021, thousands of residents in Carson, California began complaining of malodors and headaches. Hydrogen sulfide (H2S), a noxious odorous gas, was measured at concentrations up to 7000 parts per billion (ppb) and remained above California's acute air quality standard of 30 ppb for a month. Intermittent elevations of H2S continued for 3 months. After 2 months of malodor in this environmental justice community, a government agency attributed the H2S to environmental pollution from a warehouse fire. Research has yielded conflicting results on the health effects of H2S exposure at levels that were experienced during this event. This research fills a critical need for understanding how people perceive and experience emergent environmental health events and will help shape future responses. METHODS: Through a community-academic partnership, we conducted 6 focus groups with 33 participants who resided in the Carson area during the crisis. We sought to understand how this incident affected residents through facilitated discussion on topics including information acquisition, impressions of the emergency response, health symptoms, and ongoing impacts. RESULTS: The majority of participants were women (n = 25), identified as Latina/o (n = 19), and rent their homes (n = 21). Participants described difficulty obtaining coherent information about the emergency, which resulted in feelings of abandonment. Most participants felt that local government and healthcare providers downplayed and/or disregarded their concerns despite ongoing odors and health symptoms. Participants described experiencing stress from the odors' unknown health effects and continued fear of future odor incidents. Residents sought to take control of the crisis through information sharing, community networking, and activism. Participants experienced longer term effects from this event, including increased awareness of pollution and reduced trust in local agencies. DISCUSSION: This study demonstrates the necessity of clear, comprehensive, and prompt responses by relevant decisionmakers to chemical emergencies to appropriately address residents' fears, curb the spread of misinformation, and minimize adverse health effects. Participant responses also point to the benefit of supporting horizontal community networks for improved information sharing. By engaging directly with community members, researchers and disaster responders can better understand the various and complex impacts of chemical disasters and can improve response.


Assuntos
Poluição do Ar , Sulfeto de Hidrogênio , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Poluição do Ar/análise , Poluição Ambiental , Saúde Ambiental , California
19.
BMC Psychiatry ; 24(1): 468, 2024 Jun 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38918741

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Children and adolescents, after natural and man-made disasters, often exhibit various psychological, emotional, and behavioral issues, showing a range of clinical symptoms related to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. This review used a network meta-analysis (NMA) approach to compare and rank psychological interventions for PTSD and depression in children and adolescents after exposure to natural and man-made disasters. METHODS: Randomized studies of psychosocial interventions for PTSD and depression in children and adolescents exposed to natural and man-made disasters were identified. PTSD and depression symptoms at postintervention and 1-12 month follow-up are the outcomes. The standardized mean differences (SMDs) between pairs of interventions at postintervention and follow-up were pooled. Mean effect sizes with 95% credible intervals (CI) were calculated, and the ranking probabilities for all interventions were estimated using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve. Study quality was assessed with version 2 of the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomized trials (RoB 2). RESULTS: In total, 26 studies with 4331 participants were included in this NMA. Eye movement desensitization and reprocessing therapy (EMDR) (SMD = - 0.67; 95% CI - 1.17 to - 0.17), exposure therapy (ET) (SMD = - 0.66; 95% CI - 1.11 to - 0.22), and cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) (SMD = - 0.62; 95% CI - 0.90 to - 0.34) were significantly more effective for PTSD at postintervention than inactive intervention. EMDR (SMD = - 0.72; 95% CI - 1.11 to - 0.33) and ET (SMD = - 0.62; 95% CI - 0.97 to - 0.27) were associated with a higher reduction in PTSD symptoms at follow-up than inactive intervention. EMDR (SMD = - 0.40; 95% CI - 0.78 to - 0.03) and play therapy (PT) (SMD = - 0.37; 95% CI - 0.62 to - 0.12) were significantly more effective for depression at postintervention than inactive intervention. For all psychological interventions in reducing depression symptoms at follow-up compared with inactive intervention, the differences were not significant. CONCLUSION: EMDR appears to be most effective in reducing PTSD and depression in children and adolescents exposed to natural and man-made disasters. In addition, ET and CBT are potentially effective in reducing PTSD symptoms at postintervention, while PT is beneficial in managing depression symptoms at the treatment endpoint.


Assuntos
Desastres , Dessensibilização e Reprocessamento através dos Movimentos Oculares , Metanálise em Rede , Intervenção Psicossocial , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos , Humanos , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos/terapia , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos/psicologia , Adolescente , Criança , Intervenção Psicossocial/métodos , Dessensibilização e Reprocessamento através dos Movimentos Oculares/métodos , Depressão/terapia , Depressão/psicologia , Desastres Naturais , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Terapia Cognitivo-Comportamental/métodos
20.
BMC Psychiatry ; 24(1): 343, 2024 May 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38714972

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and severity of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and analyze the relationship between PTSD and breastfeeding attitudes and behaviors among breastfeeding mothers and women with children aged 0-24 months, all of whom had experienced the earthquake. METHODS: In this cross-sectional survey, a face-to-face questionnaire was administered to 173 earthquake survivors in Adiyaman, Turkey, during June and July 2023. The PTSD Checklist-Civilian scale was used to assess the presence of PTSD, while the Breastfeeding Attitudes of the Evaluation Scale (BAES) was employed to evaluate breastfeeding behaviors in mothers. RESULTS: Significantly higher PTSD scores (47.6 ± 17.4) were found among women staying in tents, while lower scores (37.0 ± 16.4) were observed in those who continued breastfeeding. 78.6% of women reported decreased breast milk because of the earthquake. Mothers with reduced milk supply had higher PTSD scores (46.1 ± 17.3). Breastfeeding training was associated with higher BAES scores (106.8 ± 56.8) and lower PTSD scores (32.5 ± 11.0). A significant negative correlation was observed between the PTSD score and BAES (r = -0.742; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrated that breastfeeding may protect mothers against PTSD in the aftermath of earthquakes, emphasizing the importance of breastfeeding education. The higher frequency and severity of PTSD observed among earthquake survivor mothers residing in tents underscores the importance of promptly transitioning to permanent housing after the earthquake.


Assuntos
Aleitamento Materno , Terremotos , Mães , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos , Humanos , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos/psicologia , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos/epidemiologia , Feminino , Aleitamento Materno/psicologia , Estudos Transversais , Adulto , Turquia/epidemiologia , Mães/psicologia , Lactente , Sobreviventes/psicologia , Inquéritos e Questionários , Adulto Jovem , Recém-Nascido , Prevalência
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