Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events.

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Ciclones, olas de calor, sequías y lluvias intensas son eventos comunes en Centroamérica y el Caribe, cuya frecuencia, intensidad y duración se espera aumente durante el siglo XXI a causa del cambio climático. Sin embargo, en la actualidad, se desconoce cuál será la incidencia de estos eventos meteorológicos extremos (EME) dentro de las áreas protegidas. En este estudio examinamos la exposición histórica y futura a los extremos climáticos y comparamos el grado de exposición dentro y fuera de las áreas protegidas de toda la región por medio de 32 métricas que describen distintas dimensiones (intensidad, duración y frecuencia) de las olas de calor, los ciclones, las sequías y las precipitaciones. Los resultados indican que a medida que aumente el número de EME, las áreas protegidas estarán más expuestas a los extremos climáticos que las áreas no protegidas. Esto es especialmente cierto en el caso de las olas de calor, que, según las proyecciones, tendrán una intensidad y una duración medias significativamente mayores, y de los ciclones tropicales, que afectarán más gravemente a las zonas protegidas en los escenarios intensivos en carbono. Nuestros resultados también indican que las zonas protegidas estarán significativamente menos expuestas a sequías o lluvias torrenciales que las zonas no protegidas. Sin embargo, las sequías que podrían amenazar la conectividad entre áreas protegidas son cada vez más frecuentes en esta región. Se estima que aproximadamente el 65% del área de estudio experimentará al menos un episodio de sequía más intenso y duradero que las sequías anteriores. En conjunto, nuestros resultados ponen de relieve la necesidad de diseñar y aplicar con prontitud nuevas estrategias de conservación adaptadas a las amenazas asociadas a los EWE. A menos que se tomen medidas urgentes, la biodiversidad única de la región podría sufrir daños considerables.

Spatial-Temporal Dynamic Evolution of Land Deformation Driven by Hydrological Signals around Chaohu Lake.

The frequent occurrence of extreme climate events has a significant impact on people's lives. Heavy rainfall can lead to an increase of regional Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS), which will cause land subsidence due to the influence of hydrological load. At present, regional TWS is mostly obtained from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, but the method has limitations for small areas. This paper used water level and flow data as hydrological signals to study the land subsidence caused by heavy rainfall in the Chaohu Lake area of East China (June 2016-August 2016). Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to study the interconnection between water resource changes and Global Navigation Satellites System (GNSS) vertical displacement. Meanwhile, to address the reliability of the research results, combined with the Coefficient of determination method, the research findings were validated by using different institutional models. The results showed that: (1) During heavy rainfall, the vertical displacement caused by atmospheric load was larger than non-tidal oceanic load, and the influence trends of the two were opposite. (2) The rapidly increasing hydrologic load in the Chaohu Lake area resulted in greater subsidence displacement at the closer CORS station (CHCH station) than the more distant CORS station (LALA station). The Pearson correlation coefficients between the vertical displacement and water level were as high as -0.80 and -0.64, respectively. The phenomenon confirmed the elastic deformation principle of disc load. (3) Although there was a systematic bias between the different environmental load deformation models, the deformation trends were generally consistent with the GNSS monitoring results. The average Coefficients of determination between the different models and the GNSS results were 0.63 and 0.77, respectively. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of GNSS in monitoring short-term hydrological load. This study reveals the spatial-temporal evolution of land deformation during heavy rainfall around Chaohu Lake, which is of reference significance for water resource management and infrastructure maintenance in this area.

Response of prokaryotic, eukaryotic and algal communities to heavy rainfall in a reservoir supplied with reclaimed water.

The global climate change made the heavy rainfall happen more frequently, and the non-point source pollution caused by it would exacerbate the risk to the water ecological environment. In this study, we took a reservoir (Shahe reservoir, Beijing, China) supplied with reclaimed water as an exapmle to investigate how spatiotemporal changes in the quantity and diversity of prokaryotic, eukaryotic, and algal communities respond to heavy rainfall. Results showed that heavy rainfall could directly impact the composition of the prokaryotic community by introducing amounts of runoff closely associated bacterium especially for the human potential pathogens such as Aliarcobacter, Aeromonas and Pseudomonas in the Shahe reservoir area. While the eukaryotic community was rather stable, and the development and changes in algal communities occurred in the last few days after heavy rainfall. The microbial source tracking through FEAST indicated that Nansha river (S) was the major contributor to the development of all the three concerned communities in the reservoir. The co-occurrence analysis showed that the modules with the highest cumulative abundance in each community were all strongly and positively connected with Chl-a, pH, turbidity, COD and TOC, but negatively correlated with NO3-N (p < 0.01). The network analysis showed that the eukaryotes played a key role in the interaction network among the three communities, and were more likely to interact with algae and prokaryotes. It was suggested that the controlling of human potential pathogens associated with prokaryotic community should be emphasized at the beginning of the heavy rainfall, but the prevention of the eutrophication bloom should be another focus after the heavy rainfall. This study provided valuable information concerning the role of heavy rainfall on the water ecological environment from the perspective of microbial community.

Source tracing and chemical weathering implications of strontium in agricultural basin in Thailand during flood season: A combined hydrochemical approach and strontium isotope.

87Sr/86Sr of river water are of great significance in constraining oceanic strontium (Sr) record and terrestrial climate change due to the connection of continental weathering and the adjacent ocean. This work presents the geochemical characteristics of dissolved Sr and hydrochemistry, and estimates chemical weathering rate together with elemental Sr flux during the flood season of the Mun River, the largest tributary of Mekong River. Hydrochemistry analysis indicates the dominance of Cl- and HCO3- for major anions with the average of 34.6 and 43.0 mg/L, respectively, and Na+ and Ca2+ together dominated the cationic composition with the average of 22.9 and 10.5 mg/L, respectively. The ion concentrations during flood season were lower than that in dry season, implying tremendous river runoff due to extreme rainfall. The dissolved Sr ranges 6.1-237.5 µg/L with higher contents in the upper Mun. Sr contents in flood season are lower and less fluctuated than that in dry season, whereas the divergence between up and downstream becomes larger. 87Sr/86Sr ranges 0.7100-0.7597, slightly higher than global average. Elemental molar ratio analysis partly corroborates the inference from correlation analysis, but 87Sr/86Sr does not correlate with Na/Ca, indicating additional influence except for the weathering of evaporites and silicates. Comparing to regional wastewater and rainwater, the lower reaches exhibits superimposed impact of agricultural inputs on weathering to dissolved loads, especially in downstream with more tributary convergence. Extreme rainfall during flood season and extensive agricultural production activities may interfere in altering riverine solutes. Silicate weathering rate and CO2 consumption rate are calculated as well as the yearly 87Sr in excess to the Mekong River and finally to the Pacific Ocean with a Sr flux of 1.98 × 103 tons/year, indicating significant influence on seawater strontium isotope evolution in the long run. Together with tropical climate and high-intensity precipitation, the accelerated chemical weathering process seems inevitable. Therefore, the impact of agricultural interference in the pan-Mekong River basin needs more systematic and multi-angle research to provide a comprehensive insight on better watershed management under tropical climatic conditions.

A possible linkage of Eurasian heat wave and East Asian heavy rainfall in Relation to the Rapid Arctic warming.

In June-July 2020 two remarkable weather events occurred in northern Eurasia. One is a severe heat wave that produced a record-breaking temperature of 38 °C at Verkhoyansk, eastern Siberia on 20 June. The other one is heavy rainfall events observed in East Asia (southern China and southwestern Japan) in early July, causing severe floods that brought about considerable damage to infrastructure and the economy, as well as the loss of human lives. Despite the accumulated evidence of stronger and more extreme heat waves and heavy rainfall as a result of global warming, little is known about the linkage between these phenomena. Given that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global mean, Arctic warming might be enhancing the increase of heavy rainfall events in East Asia. Here, we investigated the relationship between the Siberian heat wave and the East Asian heavy rainfall that occurred summer in 2020. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to atmospheric reanalysis data of 1958-2020 period captures dominant summer circulation patterns reflecting atmospheric internal variability and externally forced anomalies. On the basis of these EOF patterns, operational forecasts of summer 2020 using the global model from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and a global climate model experiment based on 2-K warming future projection are utilized to examine roles of the internal variability and external forcing, respectively. Consistent results between them reveal that development of the blocking high over eastern Siberia has certain impacts on rainfall anomalies over East Asia. By a statistical technique applied to the ensemble forecast data, prediction of the East Asian precipitation is improved by 10-20% of its amplitude. Our research demonstrates possibility that East Asian rainfall is being enhanced by high-latitude atmospheric circulations due to the Arctic warming even in the current climate in which the tropical warming is not yet severe. Suggestions are given that continued Arctic warming and a future increase of tropical warming will lead to increases of the frequency and severity of heavy rainfall events in East Asia.

Increased risk of Legionella pneumonia as community-acquired pneumonia after heavy rainfall in 2018 in west Japan.

INTRODUCTION: Japan experienced a heavy rainfall event from June 28 to July 8, 2018, and many casualties were caused by both heavy rainfall and flooding. Few studies have investigated patients' characteristics and the causative pathogens of community-acquired pneumonia before and after heavy rainfall events. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the causative pathogens and clinical characteristics of hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia before and after the heavy rainfall event using prospective cohort data. METHODS: The study was divided into two periods: July to November 2013-2017 (before heavy rainfall) and July to November 2018 (after heavy rainfall). The patients' clinical characteristics and causative pathogens before and after the heavy rainfall were investigated. Regarding the causative pathogens, adjustments were made for precipitation and seasonal patterns. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in the number and clinical characteristics of patients before and after heavy rainfall. However, the frequency of Legionella pneumonia was significantly higher after than before the heavy rainfall event (8.9% vs 3.0%, P = 0.02) and remained significant after adjusting for precipitation and season. Three of 7 Legionella pneumonia patients engaged in reconstruction work and 2 Legionella pneumonia patients had soil exposure. CONCLUSIONS: An increased risk of Legionella pneumonia after not only rainfall and serious flooding, but also following recovery work or soil exposure should be considered.

[Daily information-gathering behavior of natural disaster victims: Focusing on residents who experienced the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Kanto-Tohoku Heavy Rainfall Disaster].

Objectives　To obtain suggestions for improving disaster-prevention literacy, this study elucidated the daily information-gathering behavior of residents living in areas affected by two Japanese natural disasters (the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 and the Kanto-Tohoku Heavy Rainfall Disaster in September 2015) and examined factors affecting life backgrounds and disaster experiences.Methods　In June 2017, we administered a cross-sectional survey using a self-administered questionnaire to 1,065 households in areas affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Kanto-Tohoku Heavy Rainfall. One person in each household responded to the questionnaire. Of 362 respondents (response rate 34.0%), 336 with definite attributes were analyzed. After ascertaining their daily information-gathering behavior, we applied binary logistic regression analysis, incorporating-as dependent variables-three variables previously used in times of disaster.Results　Of the respondents, 179 were men (53.3%); the average age (standard deviation) was 65.5 (10.6) years. Information-gathering modes used by more than half the subjects were "television," "newspaper," "conversation/word of mouth," "radio," and "community magazine" in descending order of use.　Examination of the factors of the three variables revealed the following. (1) Four variables were significantly and positively correlated with "conversation/word of mouth": "woman" (1.82 odds ratio [OR]; 1.05-3.15 95% confidence interval [CI]); "I have" a co-resident family member (OR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.06-5.72); "I can expect" mutual aid from community residents (OR, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.27-4.21); and "I feel more" fear of typhoons and heavy rains now than before (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.04-3.18). (2) "Radio" has two variables with significant and positive correlations: "I have" a co-resident family member (OR, 3.22; 95% CI, 1.35-7.67) and "I was affected" by the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Kanto-Tohoku Heavy Rainfall Disaster (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.01.2.97). (3) Two variables are significantly correlated with "Internet service": "Age" has a negative correlation (OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.88-0.94); "I can expect" mutual aid from community residents has a positive correlation (OR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.19-5.93).Conclusion　Damage and fear instilled by natural disasters influence subsequent information-gathering behavior. Disaster prevention literacy in ordinary times can be improved because of the correlation between awareness of mutual aid in local communities and information-gathering behavior.

Potential of Sentinel-1 Surface Soil Moisture Product for Detecting Heavy Rainfall in the South of France.

The objective of this paper is to present an analysis of Sentinel-1 derived surface soil moisture maps (S1-SSM) produced with high spatial resolution (at plot scale) and a revisit time of six days for the Occitanie region located in the South of France as a function of precipitation data, in order to investigate the potential of S1-SSM maps for detecting heavy rainfalls. First, the correlation between S1-SSM maps and rainfall maps provided by the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) was investigated. Then, we analyzed the effect of the S1-SSM temporal resolution on detecting heavy rainfall events and the impact of these events on S1-SSM values as a function of the number of days that separated the heavy rainfall and the S1 acquisition date (cumulative rainfall more than 60 mm in 24 hours or 80 mm in 48 hours). The results showed that the six-day temporal resolution of the S1-SSM map doesn't always permit the detection of an extreme rainfall event, because confusion will appear between high S1-SSM values due to extreme rainfall events occurring six days before the acquisition of S1-SSM, and high S1-SSM values due to light rain a few hours before the acquisition of Sentinel-1 images. Moreover, the monitoring of extreme rain events using only soil moisture maps remains difficult, since many environmental parameters could affect the value of SSM, and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) doesn't allow the estimation of very high soil moistures (higher than 35 vol.%).

Urban climate in the Tokyo metropolitan area in Japan.

Long-term climate changes related with urbanization in Tokyo, Japan, and recent temperature and heavy rainfall distribution in the Tokyo metropolitan area are reviewed. A relatively high temperature increase in annual mean temperature at the rate of 3.0°C/century was detected in Tokyo for the period 1901-2015. Some observational evidence showed the existence of both thermal and mechanical effects of urbanization on recent heavy rainfall occurrences, and modeling studies also support precipitation enhancement. Urban influences were recognized in other climatological elements, such as number of fog days, relative humidity, and wind circulation.

Serological evidence of rift valley fever virus among acute febrile patients in Southern Mozambique during and after the 2013 heavy rainfall and flooding: implication for the management of febrile illness.

BACKGROUND: Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) remains heavily neglected in humans in Mozambique, even though recent outbreaks were reported in neighboring countries in humans and several cases of RVFV in cattle were reported in several districts in Mozambique. FINDINGS: We conducted a cross sectional study during and after severe flooding that occurred in 2013 in Mozambique. Paired acute and convalescent serum samples were tested from febrile patients attending a primary health care unit in a suburban area of Maputo city for the presence of IgG and IgM antibodies against Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Seroconversion of IgG anti-RVFV was observed in 5 % (10/200) of convalescent patients and specific IgM anti-RVFV was detected in one acute patient (0.5 %; 1/200). All sera from acute patient tested negative by real time PCR. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, our results suggest that RVF represent an important but neglected cause of febrile illness following periods of flooding in southern Mozambique.

Local perception of infrequent, extreme upland flash flooding: prisoners of experience?

The United Kingdom has experienced several exceptional summer flash floods in recent years and there is growing concern about the frequency of such events and the preparedness of the population. This paper uses a case study of the upper Ryedale flash flood (2005) and questionnaire and interview data to assess local perceptions of upland flash flooding. Experience of a major flash flood may not be associated with increased flood risk perception. Despite local residents' awareness of a trend towards wetter summers and more frequent heavy rainfall, the poor maintenance of rivers was more frequently thought to be a more significant factor influencing local flood risk than climate change. Such findings have important implications for the potential success of contemporary national flood policies, which have put greater emphasis on public responsibility for responding to flooding. This study recommends, therefore, the use of fresh participatory approaches to redistribute and raise awareness of locally-held flood knowledge.

Heavy rainfall events and diarrhea incidence: the role of social and environmental factors.

The impact of heavy rainfall events on waterborne diarrheal diseases is uncertain. We conducted weekly, active surveillance for diarrhea in 19 villages in Ecuador from February 2004 to April 2007 in order to evaluate whether biophysical and social factors modify vulnerability to heavy rainfall events. A heavy rainfall event was defined as 24-hour rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile value (56 mm) in a given 7-day period within the study period. Mixed-effects Poisson regression was used to test the hypothesis that rainfall in the prior 8 weeks, water and sanitation conditions, and social cohesion modified the relationship between heavy rainfall events and diarrhea incidence. Heavy rainfall events were associated with increased diarrhea incidence following dry periods (incidence rate ratio = 1.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.87) and decreased diarrhea incidence following wet periods (incidence rate ratio = 0.74, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.92). Drinking water treatment reduced the deleterious impacts of heavy rainfall events following dry periods. Sanitation, hygiene, and social cohesion did not modify the relationship between heavy rainfall events and diarrhea. Heavy rainfall events appear to affect diarrhea incidence through contamination of drinking water, and they present the greatest health risks following periods of low rainfall. Interventions designed to increase drinking water treatment may reduce climate vulnerability.

Typhoon-induced stormwater drives nutrient dynamics and triggers phytoplankton blooms in Laizhou Bay, China.

In this study, we investigated the hydrological and ecological impacts of heavy rainfall caused by the storm Rumbia and Typhoon Lekima on Laizhou Bay (LZB) through land‒sea synchronous field surveys, online remote sensors, and simulated enclosure experiments. Within two weeks of Rumbia, approximately 9% and 16% of the annual riverine total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) fluxes, respectively, were transported to the LZB and the proportions were 17% and 35%, respectively, for Lekima. The land use on the watersheds increased the rates of land-derived nutrient loading and altered their biogeochemical forms. Consequently, the average concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (DIP) in the LZB increased by 2.6 and 1.0 times post-Rumbia and by 3.5 and 1.3 times post-Lekima, respectively. Relatively lower salinity and temperature, sudden increases in DIN, and strengthened coastal currents stimulated the growth of highly adaptable and small diatoms, resulting in the first diatom blooms. Subsequently, a bloom of Noctiluca scintillans formed.

Appling fluorescence spectroscopy with absolute principal component coefficient to explore dynamic migration of DOM fractions from an urbanized river during torrential rainfall.

This research delves into the dynamic interplay between urbanization and the characteristics of Dissolved Organic Matter (DOM) in the Anyang River, particularly under the stress of torrential rain. The motivation stems from a critical need to decipher how urban landscapes influence water quality, focusing on the intricate transformations and movements of DOM. Employing advanced fluorescence spectroscopy techniques like Excitation-Emission Matrices (EEM) and Parallel Factor Analysis (PARAFAC), the study meticulously differentiates DOM compositions in urban and agricultural settings. It unveils a pronounced distinction, with urban streams showing elevated proteinaceous DOM from wastewater, contrasting with the humic substances prevalent in agricultural runoff. The analysis also captures how intense rainfall events catalyze significant shifts in DOM profiles, thereby emphasizing the need for tailored water quality management strategies in urbanized catchments. This comprehensive approach not only bridges gaps in understanding the urban impact on riverine ecosystems but also sets a foundation for future research and policy development in the face of escalating environmental changes.

Response mechanism of soil leachate and disinfection by-product formation to extreme precipitation events under continuous drought scenario.

In this study, a rainfall simulation device was employed to investigate the response mechanism of soil leachate and disinfection by-products formation potential (DBPsFP) to extreme precipitation events. The results revealed that the aromaticity of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and the concentration of hydrophobic DOM containing aromatic carbon groups in leachate decreased with rising temperature. The humification degree of DOM decreased at 25 °C (99 mm/h), while the humification degree and protein-like level of DOM increased under high temperatures droughts (45 °C and 65 °C). Higher temperatures resulted in the leach of more microbial-derived humus and low molecular phenolic compounds from soil and broadened the range of molecular weight distribution. Increasing temperature increased DBPsFP and DBPs species and caused the precursors of haloacetic acids (HAAs) in leachate to become more hydrophobic, while the precursors of trihalomethanes (THMs) became more hydrophilic. Most importantly, the increased temperature attenuated the rainfall-mediated dilution of organic pollutant concentration, and temperature has a more significant effect than extreme rainfall in DOM abundance and the formation potential (or species) of DBPs. The results help to better understand the impact of climate change on the physicochemical processes of water quality.

Assessment of weather events impacts on forage production trend of sorghum-sudangrass hybrid.

This study aimed to assess the impact of weather events on the sorghum-sudangrass hybrid (Sorghum bicolor L.) cultivar production trend in the central inland region of Korea during the monsoon season, using time series analysis. The sorghum-sudangrass production data collected between 1988 and 2013 were compiled along with the production year's weather data. The growing degree days (GDD), accumulated rainfall, and sunshine duration were used to assess their impacts on forage production (kg/ha) trend. Conversely, GDD and accumulated rainfall had positive and negative effects on the trend of forage production, respectively. Meanwhile, weather events such as heavy rainfall and typhoon were also collected based on weather warnings as weather events in the Korean monsoon season. The impact of weather events did not affect forage production, even with the increasing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall. Therefore, the trend of forage production for the sorghum-sudangrass hybrid was forecasted to slightly increase until 2045. The predicted forage production in 2045 will be 14,926 ± 6,657 kg/ha. It is likely that the damage by heavy rainfall and typhoons can be reduced through more frequent harvest against short-term single damage and a deeper extension of the root system against soil erosion and lodging. Therefore, in an environment that is rapidly changing due to climate change and extreme/abnormal weather, the cultivation of the sorghum-sudangrass hybrid would be advantageous in securing stable and robust forage production. Through this study, we propose the cultivation of sorghum-sudangrass hybrid as one of the alternative summer forage options to achieve stable forage production during the dynamically changing monsoon, in spite of rather lower nutrient value than that of maize (Zea mays L.).

Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission: a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern China.

Background: Given the rapid geographic spread of dengue and the growing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, it is imperative to understand the relationship between these phenomena in order to propose effective interventions. However, studies exploring the association between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk have reached conflicting conclusions. Methods: In this study, we use a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the association between dengue infection risk and heavy rainfall in Guangzhou, a dengue transmission hotspot in southern China, stratified by prior water availability. Results: Our findings suggest that the effects of heavy rainfall are likely to be modified by prior water availability. A 24-55 day lagged impact of heavy rainfall was associated with an increase in dengue risk when prior water availability was low, with the greatest incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.37 (95% credible interval (CI): 1.02-1.83) occurring at a lag of 27 days. In contrast, a heavy rainfall lag of 7-121 days decreased dengue risk when prior water availability was high, with the lowest IRR of 0.59 (95% CI: 0.43-0.79), occurring at a lag of 45 days. Conclusions: These findings may help to reconcile the inconsistent conclusions reached by previous studies and improve our understanding of the complex relationship between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk.

Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission: a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern China.

Introduction: Given the rapid geographic spread of dengue and the growing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, it is imperative to understand the relationship between these phenomena in order to propose effective interventions. However, studies exploring the association between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk have reached conflicting conclusions, potentially due to the neglect of prior water availability in mosquito breeding sites as an effect modifier. Methods: In this study, we addressed this research gap by considering the impact of prior water availability for the first time. We measured prior water availability as the cumulative precipitation over the preceding 8 weeks and utilized a distributed lag non-linear model stratified by the level of prior water availability to examine the association between dengue infection risk and heavy rainfall in Guangzhou, a dengue transmission hotspot in southern China. Results: Our findings suggest that the effects of heavy rainfall are likely to be modified by prior water availability. A 24-55 day lagged impact of heavy rainfall was associated with an increase in dengue risk when prior water availability was low, with the greatest incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.37 [95% credible interval (CI): 1.02-1.83] occurring at a lag of 27 days. In contrast, a heavy rainfall lag of 7-121 days decreased dengue risk when prior water availability was high, with the lowest IRR of 0.59 (95% CI: 0.43-0.79), occurring at a lag of 45 days. Discussion: These findings may help to reconcile the inconsistent conclusions reached by previous studies and improve our understanding of the complex relationship between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk.

The Impact of Heavy Rainfall Variability on Fertilizer Application Rates: Evidence from Maize Farmers in China.

Global warming increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, which is harmful to agricultural production. Given that the overuse of fertilizer has been found to be a significant contributor to global warming, it is crucial to analyze the factors affecting farmers' fertilizer use and find appropriate fertilizer reduction measures. Agriculture is inherently risky, but previous studies have ignored the risk factors related to heavy rainfall variability, including fertilizer losses and the possible yield risks, which may lead to income risk. Using the 1995-2018 National Rural Fixed Observation Point Survey Data, this study examines the impact of heavy rainfall variability on maize farmers' fertilizer application rates, aiming to understand farmers' fertilization behavior in response to weather shocks. The results show that heavy rainfall variability significantly increases farmers' fertilizer application rates on maize. Furthermore, we find that heavy rainfall variability has greater effects on fertilizer use in hills and mountainous areas and areas with good irrigation conditions or high economic levels. When examining the potential channels underlying the estimated effects, we find that yield fluctuations are a channel through which heavy rainfall variability affects farmers' fertilizer use on maize. The above results indicate that farmers view applying extra fertilizer as a risk reducing activity in response to rainfall shocks, which helps to prevent low yield and income. Strengthening agricultural infrastructure construction according to local conditions and promoting fertilizer reduction technologies and products to reduce yield risk caused by heavy rainfall can help alleviate the problem of high fertilizer application rates by Chinese farmers.

The role of seagrass meadows in the coastal trapping of litter.

The accelerated discard and mismanagement of human-made products are resulting in the continued input of litter into the oceans. Models and field observations show how floating litter can accumulate in remote areas throughout the global ocean, but far less is known about the non-floating litter fraction. Seagrass meadows play an important role in the sediment and natural-debris dynamics, and likely also in the storage and processing of non-floating litter. In this work, non-floating litter was studied across six Posidonia oceanica meadows. Litter accumulated mainly around the landside edge of the meadow. The outer margin of the edge predominantly trapped macro-litter, whilst microplastics accumulated mainly along the inner margin. On average, macro-litter concentrations increased 3-fold after heavy rainfall. Retention of non-floating litter by coastal meadows facilitates the recurrent landward-seaward conveyance of the easily-transportable litter (mainly plastic items) and its fragmentation before it is buried or transferred to deeper areas.