Molecular Choreography of Acute Exercise.

Acute physical activity leads to several changes in metabolic, cardiovascular, and immune pathways. Although studies have examined selected changes in these pathways, the system-wide molecular response to an acute bout of exercise has not been fully characterized. We performed longitudinal multi-omic profiling of plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cells including metabolome, lipidome, immunome, proteome, and transcriptome from 36 well-characterized volunteers, before and after a controlled bout of symptom-limited exercise. Time-series analysis revealed thousands of molecular changes and an orchestrated choreography of biological processes involving energy metabolism, oxidative stress, inflammation, tissue repair, and growth factor response, as well as regulatory pathways. Most of these processes were dampened and some were reversed in insulin-resistant participants. Finally, we discovered biological pathways involved in cardiopulmonary exercise response and developed prediction models revealing potential resting blood-based biomarkers of peak oxygen consumption.

Uses and limitations of artificial intelligence for oncology.

Modern artificial intelligence (AI) tools built on high-dimensional patient data are reshaping oncology care, helping to improve goal-concordant care, decrease cancer mortality rates, and increase workflow efficiency and scope of care. However, data-related concerns and human biases that seep into algorithms during development and post-deployment phases affect performance in real-world settings, limiting the utility and safety of AI technology in oncology clinics. To this end, the authors review the current potential and limitations of predictive AI for cancer diagnosis and prognostication as well as of generative AI, specifically modern chatbots, which interfaces with patients and clinicians. They conclude the review with a discussion on ongoing challenges and regulatory opportunities in the field.

Development of a machine learning-based model to predict prognosis of alpha-fetoprotein-positive hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Patients with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP)-positive hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have aggressive biological behavior and poor prognosis. Therefore, survival time is one of the greatest concerns for patients with AFP-positive HCC. This study aimed to demonstrate the utilization of six machine learning (ML)-based prognostic models to predict overall survival of patients with AFP-positive HCC. METHODS: Data on patients with AFP-positive HCC were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Six ML algorithms (extreme gradient boosting [XGBoost], logistic regression [LR], support vector machine [SVM], random forest [RF], K-nearest neighbor [KNN], and decision tree [ID3]) were used to develop the prognostic models of patients with AFP-positive HCC at one year, three years, and five years. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), confusion matrix, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model. RESULTS: A total of 2,038 patients with AFP-positive HCC were included for analysis. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 60.7%, 28.9%, and 14.3%, respectively. Seventeen features regarding demographics and clinicopathology were included in six ML algorithms to generate a prognostic model. The XGBoost model showed the best performance in predicting survival at 1-year (train set: AUC = 0.771; test set: AUC = 0.782), 3-year (train set: AUC = 0.763; test set: AUC = 0.749) and 5-year (train set: AUC = 0.807; test set: AUC = 0.740). Furthermore, for 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival prediction, the accuracy in the training and test sets was 0.709 and 0.726, 0.721 and 0.726, and 0.778 and 0.784 for the XGBoost model, respectively. Calibration curves and DCA exhibited good predictive performance as well. CONCLUSIONS: The XGBoost model exhibited good predictive performance, which may provide physicians with an effective tool for early medical intervention and improve the survival of patients.

Machine Learning Predicts Acute Kidney Injury in Hospitalized Patients with Sickle Cell Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common among hospitalized patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) and contributes to increased morbidity and mortality. Early identification and management of AKI is essential to preventing poor outcomes. We aimed to predict AKI earlier in patients with SCD using a machine-learning model that utilized continuous minute-by-minute physiological data. METHODS: A total of6,278 adult SCD patient encounters were admitted to inpatient units across five regional hospitals in Memphis, TN, over 3 years, from July 2017 to December 2020. From these, 1,178 patients were selected after filtering for data availability. AKI was identified in 82 (7%) patient encounters, using the 2012 Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria. The remaining 1,096 encounters served as controls. Features derived from five physiological data streams, heart rate, respiratory rate, and blood pressure (systolic, diastolic, and mean), captured every minute from bedside monitors were used. An XGBoost classifier was used for classification. RESULTS: Our model accurately predicted AKI up to 12 h before onset with an area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) of 0.91 (95% CI [0.89-0.93]) and up to 48 h before AKI with an AUROC of 0.82 (95% CI [0.80-0.83]). Patients with AKI were more likely to be female (64.6%) and have history of hypertension, pulmonary hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and pneumonia than the control group. CONCLUSION: XGBoost accurately predicted AKI as early as 12 h before onset in hospitalized SCD patients and may enable the development of innovative prevention strategies.

Use of artificial intelligence in critical care: opportunities and obstacles.

BACKGROUND: Perhaps nowhere else in the healthcare system than in the intensive care unit environment are the challenges to create useful models with direct time-critical clinical applications more relevant and the obstacles to achieving those goals more massive. Machine learning-based artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to define states and predict future events are commonplace activities of modern life. However, their penetration into acute care medicine has been slow, stuttering and uneven. Major obstacles to widespread effective application of AI approaches to the real-time care of the critically ill patient exist and need to be addressed. MAIN BODY: Clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) in acute and critical care environments support clinicians, not replace them at the bedside. As will be discussed in this review, the reasons are many and include the immaturity of AI-based systems to have situational awareness, the fundamental bias in many large databases that do not reflect the target population of patient being treated making fairness an important issue to address and technical barriers to the timely access to valid data and its display in a fashion useful for clinical workflow. The inherent "black-box" nature of many predictive algorithms and CDSS makes trustworthiness and acceptance by the medical community difficult. Logistically, collating and curating in real-time multidimensional data streams of various sources needed to inform the algorithms and ultimately display relevant clinical decisions support format that adapt to individual patient responses and signatures represent the efferent limb of these systems and is often ignored during initial validation efforts. Similarly, legal and commercial barriers to the access to many existing clinical databases limit studies to address fairness and generalizability of predictive models and management tools. CONCLUSIONS: AI-based CDSS are evolving and are here to stay. It is our obligation to be good shepherds of their use and further development.

Modeling mortality prediction in older adults with dementia receiving COVID-19 vaccination.

OBJECTIVE: This study compared COVID-19 outcomes between vaccinated and unvaccinated older adults with and without cognitive impairment. METHOD: Electronic health records from Israel from March 2020-February 2022 were analyzed for a large cohort (N = 85,288) aged 65 + . Machine learning constructed models to predict mortality risk from patient factors. Outcomes examined were COVID-19 mortality and hospitalization post-vaccination. RESULTS: Our study highlights the significant reduction in mortality risk among older adults with cognitive disorders following COVID-19 vaccination, showcasing a survival rate improvement to 93%. Utilizing machine learning for mortality prediction, we found the XGBoost model, enhanced with inverse probability of treatment weighting, to be the most effective, achieving an AUC-PR value of 0.89. This underscores the importance of predictive analytics in identifying high-risk individuals, emphasizing the critical role of vaccination in mitigating mortality and supporting targeted healthcare interventions. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination strongly reduced poor outcomes in older adults with cognitive impairment. Predictive analytics can help identify highest-risk cases requiring targeted interventions.

Deep learning algorithms for predicting renal replacement therapy initiation in CKD patients: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) requires accurate prediction of renal replacement therapy (RRT) initiation risk. This study developed deep learning algorithms (DLAs) to predict RRT risk in CKD patients by incorporating medical history and prescriptions in addition to biochemical investigations. METHODS: A multi-centre retrospective cohort study was conducted in three major hospitals in Hong Kong. CKD patients with an eGFR < 30ml/min/1.73m2 were included. DLAs of various structures were created and trained using patient data. Using a test set, the DLAs' predictive performance was compared to Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). RESULTS: DLAs outperformed KFRE in predicting RRT initiation risk (CNN + LSTM + ANN layers ROC-AUC = 0.90; CNN ROC-AUC = 0.91; 4-variable KFRE: ROC-AUC = 0.84; 8-variable KFRE: ROC-AUC = 0.84). DLAs accurately predicted uncoded renal transplants and patients requiring dialysis after 5 years, demonstrating their ability to capture non-linear relationships. CONCLUSIONS: DLAs provide accurate predictions of RRT risk in CKD patients, surpassing traditional methods like KFRE. Incorporating medical history and prescriptions improves prediction performance. While our findings suggest that DLAs hold promise for improving patient care and resource allocation in CKD management, further prospective observational studies and randomized controlled trials are necessary to fully understand their impact, particularly regarding DLA interpretability, bias minimization, and overfitting reduction. Overall, our research underscores the emerging role of DLAs as potentially valuable tools in advancing the management of CKD and predicting RRT initiation risk.

Multicenter external validation of prediction models for clinical outcomes after spinal fusion for lumbar degenerative disease.

BACKGROUND: Clinical prediction models (CPM), such as the SCOAP-CERTAIN tool, can be utilized to enhance decision-making for lumbar spinal fusion surgery by providing quantitative estimates of outcomes, aiding surgeons in assessing potential benefits and risks for each individual patient. External validation is crucial in CPM to assess generalizability beyond the initial dataset. This ensures performance in diverse populations, reliability and real-world applicability of the results. Therefore, we externally validated the tool for predictability of improvement in oswestry disability index (ODI), back and leg pain (BP, LP). METHODS: Prospective and retrospective data from multicenter registry was obtained. As outcome measure minimum clinically important change was chosen for ODI with ≥ 15-point and ≥ 2-point reduction for numeric rating scales (NRS) for BP and LP 12 months after lumbar fusion for degenerative disease. We externally validate this tool by calculating discrimination and calibration metrics such as intercept, slope, Brier Score, expected/observed ratio, Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL), AUC, sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: We included 1115 patients, average age 60.8 ± 12.5 years. For 12-month ODI, area-under-the-curve (AUC) was 0.70, the calibration intercept and slope were 1.01 and 0.84, respectively. For NRS BP, AUC was 0.72, with calibration intercept of 0.97 and slope of 0.87. For NRS LP, AUC was 0.70, with calibration intercept of 0.04 and slope of 0.72. Sensitivity ranged from 0.63 to 0.96, while specificity ranged from 0.15 to 0.68. Lack of fit was found for all three models based on HL testing. CONCLUSIONS: Utilizing data from a multinational registry, we externally validate the SCOAP-CERTAIN prediction tool. The model demonstrated fair discrimination and calibration of predicted probabilities, necessitating caution in applying it in clinical practice. We suggest that future CPMs focus on predicting longer-term prognosis for this patient population, emphasizing the significance of robust calibration and thorough reporting.

Assessing Generative Pretrained Transformers (GPT) in Clinical Decision-Making: Comparative Analysis of GPT-3.5 and GPT-4.

BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence, particularly chatbot systems, is becoming an instrumental tool in health care, aiding clinical decision-making and patient engagement. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze the performance of ChatGPT-3.5 and ChatGPT-4 in addressing complex clinical and ethical dilemmas, and to illustrate their potential role in health care decision-making while comparing seniors' and residents' ratings, and specific question types. METHODS: A total of 4 specialized physicians formulated 176 real-world clinical questions. A total of 8 senior physicians and residents assessed responses from GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 on a 1-5 scale across 5 categories: accuracy, relevance, clarity, utility, and comprehensiveness. Evaluations were conducted within internal medicine, emergency medicine, and ethics. Comparisons were made globally, between seniors and residents, and across classifications. RESULTS: Both GPT models received high mean scores (4.4, SD 0.8 for GPT-4 and 4.1, SD 1.0 for GPT-3.5). GPT-4 outperformed GPT-3.5 across all rating dimensions, with seniors consistently rating responses higher than residents for both models. Specifically, seniors rated GPT-4 as more beneficial and complete (mean 4.6 vs 4.0 and 4.6 vs 4.1, respectively; P<.001), and GPT-3.5 similarly (mean 4.1 vs 3.7 and 3.9 vs 3.5, respectively; P<.001). Ethical queries received the highest ratings for both models, with mean scores reflecting consistency across accuracy and completeness criteria. Distinctions among question types were significant, particularly for the GPT-4 mean scores in completeness across emergency, internal, and ethical questions (4.2, SD 1.0; 4.3, SD 0.8; and 4.5, SD 0.7, respectively; P<.001), and for GPT-3.5's accuracy, beneficial, and completeness dimensions. CONCLUSIONS: ChatGPT's potential to assist physicians with medical issues is promising, with prospects to enhance diagnostics, treatments, and ethics. While integration into clinical workflows may be valuable, it must complement, not replace, human expertise. Continued research is essential to ensure safe and effective implementation in clinical environments.

Risk and Promotive Factors Related to Cannabis Use Among American Indian Adolescents.

Reservation-dwelling American Indian adolescents are at exceedingly high risk for cannabis use. Prevention initiatives to delay the onset and escalation of use are needed. The risk and promotive factors approach to substance use prevention is a well-established framework for identifying the timing and targets for prevention initiatives. This study aimed to develop predictive models for the usage of cannabis using 22 salient risk and promotive factors. Models were developed using data from a cross-sectional study and further validated using data from a separate longitudinal study with three measurement occasions (baseline, 6-month follow-up, 1-year follow-up). Application of the model to longitudinal data showed an acceptable performance contemporaneously but waning prospective predictive utility over time. Despite the model's high specificity, the sensitivity was low, indicating an effective prediction of non-users but poor performance in correctly identifying users, particularly at the 1-year follow-up. This divergence can have significant implications. For example, a model that misclassifies future adolescent cannabis use could fail to provide necessary intervention for those at risk, leading to negative health and social consequences. Moreover, supplementary analysis points to the importance of considering change in risk and promotive factors over time.

A Review of Predictive Analytics Models in the Oil and Gas Industries.

Enhancing the management and monitoring of oil and gas processes demands the development of precise predictive analytic techniques. Over the past two years, oil and its prediction have advanced significantly using conventional and modern machine learning techniques. Several review articles detail the developments in predictive maintenance and the technical and non-technical aspects of influencing the uptake of big data. The absence of references for machine learning techniques impacts the effective optimization of predictive analytics in the oil and gas sectors. This review paper offers readers thorough information on the latest machine learning methods utilized in this industry's predictive analytical modeling. This review covers different forms of machine learning techniques used in predictive analytical modeling from 2021 to 2023 (91 articles). It provides an overview of the details of the papers that were reviewed, describing the model's categories, the data's temporality, field, and name, the dataset's type, predictive analytics (classification, clustering, or prediction), the models' input and output parameters, the performance metrics, the optimal model, and the model's benefits and drawbacks. In addition, suggestions for future research directions to provide insights into the potential applications of the associated knowledge. This review can serve as a guide to enhance the effectiveness of predictive analytics models in the oil and gas industries.

Predictive analytics and early intervention in healthcare social work: a scoping review.

This scoping review investigates the untapped potential of predictive analytics in healthcare social work, specifically targeting early intervention frameworks. Despite the escalating attention predictive analytics has garnered across multiple disciplines, its tailored application in social work remains notably sparse. This study endeavors to fill this lacuna by meticulously reviewing the extant literature and delineating the prospective advantages and inherent constraints of integrating predictive analytics into healthcare social work. The outcomes of this inquiry enrich the prevailing dialogue on the utility of predictive analytics in healthcare, offering indispensable perspectives for practitioners and policymakers in the social work domain.

There is no such thing as a validated prediction model.

BACKGROUND: Clinical prediction models should be validated before implementation in clinical practice. But is favorable performance at internal validation or one external validation sufficient to claim that a prediction model works well in the intended clinical context? MAIN BODY: We argue to the contrary because (1) patient populations vary, (2) measurement procedures vary, and (3) populations and measurements change over time. Hence, we have to expect heterogeneity in model performance between locations and settings, and across time. It follows that prediction models are never truly validated. This does not imply that validation is not important. Rather, the current focus on developing new models should shift to a focus on more extensive, well-conducted, and well-reported validation studies of promising models. CONCLUSION: Principled validation strategies are needed to understand and quantify heterogeneity, monitor performance over time, and update prediction models when appropriate. Such strategies will help to ensure that prediction models stay up-to-date and safe to support clinical decision-making.

The Ethics of Risk Prediction for Psychosis and Suicide Attempt in Youth Mental Health.

OBJECTIVE: To identify potential clinical utility of polygenic risk scores (PRS) and exposomic risk scores (ERS) for psychosis and suicide attempt in youth and assess the ethical implications of these tools. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a narrative literature review of emerging findings on PRS and ERS for suicide and psychosis as well as a literature review on the ethics of PRS. We discuss the ethical implications of the emerging findings for the clinical potential of PRS and ERS. RESULTS: Emerging evidence suggests that PRS and ERS may offer clinical utility in the relatively near future but that this utility will be limited to specific, narrow clinical questions, in contrast to the suggestion that population-level screening will have sweeping impact. Combining PRS and ERS might optimize prediction. This clinical utility would change the risk-benefit balance of PRS, and further empirical assessment of proposed risks would be necessary. Some concerns for PRS, such as those about counseling, privacy, and inequities, apply to ERS. ERS raise distinct ethical challenges as well, including some that involve informed consent and direct-to-consumer advertising. Both raise questions about the ethics of machine-learning/artificial intelligence approaches. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive analytics using PRS and ERS may soon play a role in youth mental health settings. Our findings help educate clinicians about potential capabilities, limitations, and ethical implications of these tools. We suggest that a broader discussion with the public is needed to avoid overenthusiasm and determine regulations and guidelines for use of predictive scores.

Associations of vulnerability to stressful life events with suicide attempts after active duty among high-risk soldiers: results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-longitudinal study (STARRS-LS).

BACKGROUND: The transition from military service to civilian life is a high-risk period for suicide attempts (SAs). Although stressful life events (SLEs) faced by transitioning soldiers are thought to be implicated, systematic prospective evidence is lacking. METHODS: Participants in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) completed baseline self-report surveys while on active duty in 2011-2014. Two self-report follow-up Longitudinal Surveys (LS1: 2016-2018; LS2: 2018-2019) were subsequently administered to probability subsamples of these baseline respondents. As detailed in a previous report, a SA risk index based on survey, administrative, and geospatial data collected before separation/deactivation identified 15% of the LS respondents who had separated/deactivated as being high-risk for self-reported post-separation/deactivation SAs. The current report presents an investigation of the extent to which self-reported SLEs occurring in the 12 months before each LS survey might have mediated/modified the association between this SA risk index and post-separation/deactivation SAs. RESULTS: The 15% of respondents identified as high-risk had a significantly elevated prevalence of some post-separation/deactivation SLEs. In addition, the associations of some SLEs with SAs were significantly stronger among predicted high-risk than lower-risk respondents. Demographic rate decomposition showed that 59.5% (s.e. = 10.2) of the overall association between the predicted high-risk index and subsequent SAs was linked to these SLEs. CONCLUSIONS: It might be possible to prevent a substantial proportion of post-separation/deactivation SAs by providing high-risk soldiers with targeted preventive interventions for exposure/vulnerability to commonly occurring SLEs.

A Risk-Prediction Platform for Acute Kidney Injury and 30-Day Readmission After Colorectal Surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Few known risk factors for certain surgical complications are prospectively analyzed to ascertain their influence on outcomes. Health systems can use integrated machine-learning-derived algorithms to provide information regarding patients' risk status in real time and pair this data with interventions to improve outcomes. The purpose of this work was to evaluate whether real-time knowledge of patients' calculated risk status paired with a stratified intervention was associated with a reduction in acute kidney injury and 30-d readmission following colorectal surgery. METHODS: Unblinded, retrospective study, evaluating the impact of an electronic health record-integrated and autonomous algorithm-based clinical decision support tool (KelaHealth, San Francisco, California) on acute kidney injury and 30-d readmission following colorectal surgery at a single academic medical center between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020, relative to a propensity-matched historical cohort (2014-2018) prior to algorithm integration (January 11, 2019). RESULTS: 3617 patients underwent colorectal surgery during the control period and 665 underwent surgery during the treatment period; 1437 historical control patients were matched to 479 risk-based patients for the study. Utilization of the risk-based management platform was associated with a 2.5% decrease in the rate of acute kidney injury (11.3% to 8.8%) and 3.1% decrease in rate of readmissions (12% to 8.9%). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found significant reductions in postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) and unplanned readmissions after the implementation of an algorithm based clinical decision support tool that risk-stratified populations and offered stratified interventions. This opens up an opportunity for further investigation in translating similar risk platform approaches across surgical specialties.

Technical/Algorithm, Stakeholder, and Society (TASS) barriers to the application of artificial intelligence in medicine: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: The use of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning and predictive analytics, has shown great promise in health care. Despite its strong potential, there has been limited use in health care settings. In this systematic review, we aim to determine the main barriers to successful implementation of AI in healthcare and discuss potential ways to overcome these challenges. METHODS: We conducted a literature search in PubMed (1/1/2001-1/1/2023). The search was restricted to publications in the English language, and human study subjects. We excluded articles that did not discuss AI, machine learning, predictive analytics, and barriers to the use of these techniques in health care. Using grounded theory methodology, we abstracted concepts to identify major barriers to AI use in medicine. RESULTS: We identified a total of 2,382 articles. After reviewing the 306 included papers, we developed 19 major themes, which we categorized into three levels: the Technical/Algorithm, Stakeholder, and Social levels (TASS). These themes included: Lack of Explainability, Need for Validation Protocols, Need for Standards for Interoperability, Need for Reporting Guidelines, Need for Standardization of Performance Metrics, Lack of Plan for Updating Algorithm, Job Loss, Skills Loss, Workflow Challenges, Loss of Patient Autonomy and Consent, Disturbing the Patient-Clinician Relationship, Lack of Trust in AI, Logistical Challenges, Lack of strategic plan, Lack of Cost-effectiveness Analysis and Proof of Efficacy, Privacy, Liability, Bias and Social Justice, and Education. CONCLUSION: We identified 19 major barriers to the use of AI in healthcare and categorized them into three levels: the Technical/Algorithm, Stakeholder, and Social levels (TASS). Future studies should expand on barriers in pediatric care and focus on developing clearly defined protocols to overcome these barriers.

Machine learning methods for predicting the key metabolic parameters of Halomonas elongata DSM 2581 T.

Ectoine is generally produced by the fermentation process of Halomonas elongata DSM 2581 T, which is one of the primary industrial ectoine production techniques. To effectively monitor and control the fermentation process, the important parameters require accurate real-time measurement. However, for ectoine fermentation, three critical parameters (cell optical density, glucose, and product concentration) cannot be measured conveniently in real-time due to time variation, strong coupling, and other constraints. As a result, our work effectively created a series of hybrid models to predict the values of these three parameters incorporating both fermentation kinetics and machine learning approaches. Compared with the traditional machine learning models, our models solve the problem of insufficient data which is common in fermentation. In addition, a simple kinetic modeling is only applicable to specific physical conditions, so different physical conditions require refitting the function, which is tedious to operate. However, our models also overcome this limitation. In this work, we compared different hybrid models based on 5 feature engineering methods, 11 machine-learning approaches, and 2 kinetic models. The best models for predicting three key parameters, respectively, are as follows: CORR-Ensemble (R2: 0.983 ± 0.0, RMSE: 0.086 ± 0.0, MAE: 0.07 ± 0.0), SBE-Ensemble (R2: 0.972 ± 0.0, RMSE: 0.127 ± 0.0, MAE: 0.078 ± 0.0), and SBE-Ensemble (R2:0.98 ± 0.0, RMSE: 0.023 ± 0.001, MAE: 0.018 ± 0.001). To verify the universality and stability of constructed models, we have done an experimental verification, and its results showed that our proposed models have excellent performance. KEY POINTS: • Using the kinetic models for producing simulated data • Through different feature engineering methods for dimension reduction • Creating a series of hybrid models to predict the values of three parameters in the fermentation process of Halomonas elongata DSM 2581 T.

Covid-19 triage in the emergency department 2.0: how analytics and AI transform a human-made algorithm for the prediction of clinical pathways.

The Covid-19 pandemic has pushed many hospitals to their capacity limits. Therefore, a triage of patients has been discussed controversially primarily through an ethical perspective. The term triage contains many aspects such as urgency of treatment, severity of the disease and pre-existing conditions, access to critical care, or the classification of patients regarding subsequent clinical pathways starting from the emergency department. The determination of the pathways is important not only for patient care, but also for capacity planning in hospitals. We examine the performance of a human-made triage algorithm for clinical pathways which is considered a guideline for emergency departments in Germany based on a large multicenter dataset with over 4,000 European Covid-19 patients from the LEOSS registry. We find an accuracy of 28 percent and approximately 15 percent sensitivity for the ward class. The results serve as a benchmark for our extensions including an additional category of palliative care as a new label, analytics, AI, XAI, and interactive techniques. We find significant potential of analytics and AI in Covid-19 triage regarding accuracy, sensitivity, and other performance metrics whilst our interactive human-AI algorithm shows superior performance with approximately 73 percent accuracy and up to 76 percent sensitivity. The results are independent of the data preparation process regarding the imputation of missing values or grouping of comorbidities. In addition, we find that the consideration of an additional label palliative care does not improve the results.

Machine learning for optimal test admission in the presence of resource constraints.

Developing rapid tools for early detection of viral infection is crucial for pandemic containment. This is particularly crucial when testing resources are constrained and/or there are significant delays until the test results are available - as was quite common in the early days of Covid-19 pandemic. We show how predictive analytics methods using machine learning algorithms can be combined with optimal pre-test screening mechanisms, greatly increasing test efficiency (i.e., rate of true positives identified per test), as well as to allow doctors to initiate treatment before the test results are available. Our optimal test admission policies account for imperfect accuracy of both the medical test and the model prediction mechanism. We derive the accuracy required for the optimized admission policies to be effective. We also show how our policies can be extended to re-testing high-risk patients, as well as combined with pool testing approaches. We illustrate our techniques by applying them to a large data reported by the Israeli Ministry of Health for RT-PCR tests from March to September 2020. Our results demonstrate that in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic a pre-test probability screening tool with conventional RT-PCR testing could have potentially increased efficiency by several times, compared to random admission control.