Prognostic scores for ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients predict graft loss and mortality in recurrent primary biliary cholangitis after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recurrent primary biliary cholangitis (rPBC) develops in approximately 30% of patients and negatively impacts graft and overall patient survival after liver transplantation (LT). There is a lack of data regarding the response rate to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in rPBC. We evaluated a large, international, multi-center cohort to assess the performance of PBC scores in predicting the risk of graft and overall survival after LT in patients with rPBC. METHODS: A total of 332 patients with rPBC after LT were evaluated from 28 centers across Europe, North and South America. The median age at the time of rPBC was 58.0 years [IQR 53.2-62.6], and 298 patients (90%) were female. The biochemical response was measured with serum levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and bilirubin, and Paris-2, GLOBE and UK-PBC scores at 1 year after UDCA initiation. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.7 years [IQR 4.3-12.9] after rPBC diagnosis, 52 patients (16%) had graft loss and 103 (31%) died. After 1 year of UDCA initiation the histological stage at rPBC (hazard ratio [HR] 3.97, 95% CI 1.36-11.55, p = 0.01), use of prednisone (HR 3.18, 95% CI 1.04-9.73, p = 0.04), ALP xULN (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.26-2.01, p <0.001), Paris-2 criteria (HR 4.14, 95% CI 1.57-10.92, p = 0.004), GLOBE score (HR 2.82, 95% CI 1.71-4.66, p <0.001), and the UK-PBC score (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.09, p <0.001) were associated with graft survival in the multivariate analysis. Similar results were observed for overall survival. CONCLUSION: Patients with rPBC and disease activity, as indicated by standard PBC risk scores, have impaired outcomes, supporting efforts to treat recurrent disease in similar ways to pre-transplant PBC. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: One in three people who undergo liver transplantation for primary biliary cholangitis develop recurrent disease in their new liver. Patients with recurrent primary biliary cholangitis and incomplete response to ursodeoxycholic acid, according to conventional prognostic scores, have worse clinical outcomes, with higher risk of graft loss and mortality in similar ways to the disease before liver transplantation. Our results supportsupport efforts to treat recurrent disease in similar ways to pre-transplant primary biliary cholangitis.

Pursuing living donor liver transplantation improves outcomes of patients with autoimmune liver diseases: An intention-to-treat analysis.

Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) offers the opportunity to decrease waitlist time and mortality for patients with autoimmune liver disease (AILD), autoimmune hepatitis, primary biliary cholangitis, and primary sclerosing cholangitis. We compared the survival of patients with a potential living donor (pLDLT) on the waitlist versus no potential living donor (pDDLT) on an intention-to-treat basis. Our retrospective cohort study investigated adults with AILD listed for a liver transplant in our program between 2000 and 2021. The pLDLT group comprised recipients with a potential living donor. Otherwise, they were included in the pDDLT group. Intention-to-treat survival was assessed from the time of listing. Of the 533 patients included, 244 (43.8%) had a potential living donor. Waitlist dropout was higher for the pDDLT groups among all AILDs (pDDLT 85 [29.4%] vs. pLDLT 9 [3.7%], p < 0.001). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year intention-to-treat survival rates were higher for pLDLT versus pDDLT among all AILDs (95.7% vs. 78.1%, 89.0% vs. 70.1%, and 87.1% vs. 65.5%, p < 0.001). After adjusting for covariates, pLDLT was associated with a 38% reduction in the risk of death among the AILD cohort (HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.42-0.93 [ p <0.05]), and 60% among the primary sclerosing cholangitis cohort (HR: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.22-0.74 [ p <0.05]). There were no differences in the 1-, 3-, and 5-year post-transplant survival between LDLT and DDLT (AILD: 95.6% vs. 92.1%, 89.9% vs. 89.4%, and 89.1% vs. 87.1%, p =0.41). This was consistent after adjusting for covariates (HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.56-1.68 [ p >0.9]). Our study suggests that having a potential living donor could decrease the risk of death in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis on the waitlist. Importantly, the post-transplant outcomes in this population are similar between the LDLT and DDLT groups.

Comorbidities, mortality and metabolic profile in individuals with primary biliary cholangitis-A Phenome-Wide-Association-Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic, immune-mediated liver disease that can lead to fibrosis and cirrhosis. In this cohort study, we aimed to investigate morbidity and mortality in conjunction with metabolomic changes of PBC in a UK population-based cohort. METHODS: 454 participants with PBC and 908 propensity score (age, sex, BMI, ethnicity) matched controls without liver disease were included in the study. A subset of participants with PBC and controls were analysed for their metabolomic profile. Further, PBC-associated comorbidities were investigated by PheWAS analysis. Lastly, we assessed causes of death in individuals with PBC using a Fine and Grey competing-risks regression model. RESULTS: Compared to the control group, various pathways associated with the metabolism of amino acids, lipids, and liver biochemistry were significantly enriched in individuals with PBC. We found reduced levels of S-HDL-cholesterol and Glycoprotein Acetyls in individuals with PBC as well as an association with diseases of the circulatory system. Notably, PBC individuals had a higher prevalence of digestive diseases, autoimmune diseases, cardiovascular diseases, anaemias, mental disorders, and urinary tract infections compared to the control group. Strikingly, the overall mortality was almost three times higher in the PBC group compared to the control group, with diseases of the digestive system accounting for a significant elevation of the death rate. A subsequent analysis, enhanced by propensity score matching that included the APRI score, demonstrated that the observed morbidity could not be exclusively attributed to advanced hepatic disease. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides a detailed perspective on the morbidity of individuals with PBC. The exploration of potential effects of disease state on morbidity suggest that early detection and early treatment of PBC could enhance patient prognosis and prevent the onset of comorbid diseases. Finally, the metabolomic alterations could represent a link between the pathophysiological processes underlying PBC development, progression, and associated morbidity.

A low baseline serum myostatin concentration is associated with poor clinical outcome in patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is an autoimmune-mediated cholestatic liver disease that can progress to biliary cirrhosis and liver-related death. The associations between baseline myostatin levels and clinical outcomes in PBC patients are unknown. We aimed to clarify the influence of myostatin levels on the clinical outcomes of PBC patients. METHODS: A total of 119 PBC patients were analyzed in this study. Myostatin levels were measured in stored sera before ursodeoxycholic acid treatment, and their associations with the clinical features and prognosis of PBC patients were analyzed. We analyzed the correlation between serum myostatin and chemokines/cytokines. RESULTS: Serum myostatin was significantly lower in PBC patients (2343 pg/mL) than in healthy controls (4059 pg/mL, P < 0.001). The prevalence of patients with low myostatin levels increased according to the severity of histological fibrosis. The serum myostatin concentration was negatively correlated with the IL-6 and leucine-rich α2 glycoprotein levels, but the chemokine concentration was not correlated with the myostatin concentration. Low myostatin in PBC patients was associated with shorter survival without liver-related complications (hazard ratio [HR], 3.598; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-10.1; P = 0.015) and shorter transplant-free survival (HR, 3.129; 95% CI, 1.02-9.56; P = 0.045) independent of pretreatment GLOBE score. Patients with both high pretreatment GLOBE scores and low myostatin levels had poor prognoses (log-rank test: P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A low serum myostatin concentration at diagnosis was associated with poor clinical outcomes. Assessment of circulating myostatin levels may improve the prediction of outcomes in patients with PBC.

Influence of socioeconomic factors on liver transplant survival outcomes in patients with autoimmune liver disease in the United States.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Autoimmune liver diseases (AILDs): autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) have different survival outcomes after liver transplant (LT). Outcomes are influenced by factors including disease burden, medical comorbidities, and socioeconomic variables. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the United Network for Organ Sharing database (UNOS), we identified 13,702 patients with AILDs listed for LT between 2002 and 2021. Outcomes of interest were waitlist removal, post-LT patient survival, and post- LT graft survival. A stepwise multivariate analysis was performed adjusting for transplant recipient gender, race, diabetes mellitus, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and additional social determinants including the presence of education, reliance on public insurance, working for income, and U.S. citizenship status. RESULTS: Lack of college education and having public insurance increased the risk of waitlist removal (HR, 1.13; 95 % CI, 1.05-1.23, and HR, 1.09; 95 % CI, 1.00-1.18; respectively), and negatively influenced post-LT patient survival (HR, 1.16; 95 % CI, 1.06-1.26, and HR, 1.15; 95 % CI, 1.06-1.25; respectively) and graft survival (HR, 1.13; 95 % CI, 1.05-1.23, and HR, 1.15; 95 % CI, 1.06-1.25; respectively). Not working for income proved to have the greatest detrimental impact on both patient survival (HR, 1.41; 95 % CI, 1.24-1.6) and graft survival (HR, 1.21; 95 % CI, 1.09-1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights that lack of college education and public insurance have a detrimental impact on waitlist mortality, patient survival, and graft survival. Not working for income negatively affects post-LT survival outcomes. Not having U.S. citizenship does not affect survival outcomes in AILDs patients.

Male Sex Is Associated With Higher Rates of Liver-Related Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The impact of sex on the postcirrhosis progression of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has not been well defined. Prior studies have suggested that men have worse outcomes but present at more advanced stages of fibrosis than women. This observation, however, has been limited by small numbers of men and even fewer patients with cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We investigated the association of sex with the development of all-cause and liver-related mortality or transplantation, decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), using competing-risk time-updating Cox proportional hazards models in a large cohort of predominantly male patients with PBC cirrhosis assembled from the Veterans Health Administration. In a cohort of 532 participants (418 male) with PBC-related cirrhosis with a total follow-up of 3,231.6 person-years (PY) from diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis, male participants had a higher unadjusted rates of death or transplantation (8.5 vs. 3.8 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001), liver-related death or transplantation (5.5 vs. 2.7 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001), decompensation (5.5 vs. 4.0 per 100 PY; P = 0.002), and HCC (0.9 vs. 0.3 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001). After adjusting for confounders, male sex was associated with a higher risk of death or transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.01-3.19; P = 0.046), and liver-related death or transplantation (subhazard ratio, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.15-4.08; P = 0.02). A sensitivity analysis that defined ursodeoxycholic acid response as normalization of alkaline phosphatase and total bilirubin revealed similar findings. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with PBC and well-compensated cirrhosis, male sex is associated with a higher risk of both death and liver-related death or transplantation.

Association of bezafibrate with transplant-free survival in patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A beneficial effect of bezafibrate (BZF) on symptoms and biochemical features of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has been reported in patients with an incomplete response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), but long-term effects on survival remain unknown. In Japan, BZF has been used as a de facto second-line therapy for PBC since 2000. Herein, we compared the survival rates between patients treated with and those without BZF in a large nationwide Japanese PBC cohort. METHODS: All consecutively registered patients of this cohort who started UDCA therapy from 2000 onwards and had a follow-up ≥1 year were included. Association between BZF exposure and mortality or need for liver transplantation (LT) was assessed using time-dependent, multivariable-and propensity score-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Clinical benefit was quantified using the number needed to treat (NNT). RESULTS: Of 3,908 eligible patients, 3,162 (81%) received UDCA only and 746 (19%) UDCA and BZF over 17,360 and 3,932 patient-years, respectively. During follow-up, 183 deaths (89 liver-related) and 21 LT were registered. Exposure to combination therapy was associated with a significant decrease in all-cause and liver-related mortality or need for LT (adjusted hazard ratios: 0.3253, 95% CI 0.1936-0.5466 and 0.2748, 95% CI 0.1336-0.5655, respectively; p <0.001 for both). This association was consistent across various risk groups at baseline. The NNTs with combination therapy to prevent 1 additional death or LT over 5, 10, and 15 years were 29 (95% CI 22-46), 14 (10-22), and 8 (6-15), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In a large retrospective cohort study of treatment effects in patients with PBC, the addition of BZF to UDCA was associated with improved prognosis. LAY SUMMARY: The long-term efficacy of bezafibrate (BZF) on liver transplantation (LT) - free survival in patients with PBC and an incomplete response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) remains to be determined. In this Japanese nationwide retrospective cohort study, the use of UDCA-BZF combination therapy, compared to UDCA alone, was associated with a lower risk of all-cause and liver-related mortality or need for LT. These results indicate that BZF is so far the only drug in PBC to have demonstrated efficacy in improving symptoms, biochemical markers, and long-term outcomes.

A Comparison of Prognostic Scores (Mayo, UK-PBC, and GLOBE) in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Comparative data on scores that predict outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are scarce. We aimed to assess and compare the prognostic value of the Mayo Risk Score (MRS, 1989 and 1994), UK-PBC score, and GLOBE score in a large international cohort of patients with PBC. METHODS: Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients from 7 centers participating in the GLOBAL PBC Study Group were included. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with concordance statistics at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Model for End-stage Liver Disease was included for comparison. Prediction accuracy was assessed by comparing predicted survival and actual survival in Kaplan-Meier analyses. RESULTS: A total of 1,100 ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC were included, with a mean (SD) age of 53.6 (12.0) years, of whom 1,003 (91%) were female. During a median follow-up of 7.6 (interquartile range 4.1-11.7) years, 42 patients underwent liver transplantation, and 127 patients died. At 1 year, the concordance statistic for Model for End-stage Liver Disease was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.72), 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) for the UK-PBC score, 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.81) for the MRS (1989 and 1994), and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84) for the GLOBE score. The GLOBE score showed superior discriminatory performance, but differences were not statistically different. For all scores, discriminatory performance increased in those with bilirubin >0.6 × ULN and advanced fibrosis estimated with Fibrosis-4. The predicted (median) minus observed 5-year transplant-free survival was +0.4% and +2.5% for the MRS (1989) and GLOBE score, respectively. DISCUSSION: All prognostic scores developed for PBC (GLOBE, UK-PBC, and MRS) demonstrated comparable discriminating performance for liver transplantation or death as well as good prediction accuracy.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Response Is Associated With Reduced Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis With Compensated Cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with cirrhosis and men have been under-represented in most studies examining the clinical benefit of response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The aim of this study was to study the association of UDCA response and liver-related death or transplantation, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with PBC cirrhosis. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of veterans, predominantly men, with PBC and compensated cirrhosis to assess the association of UDCA response with the development of all-cause and liver-related mortality or transplantation, hepatic decompensation, and HCC using competing risk time-updating Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: We identified 501 subjects with PBC and compensated cirrhosis, including 287 UDCA responders (1,692.8 patient-years [PY] of follow-up) and 214 partial responders (838.9 PY of follow-up). The unadjusted rates of hepatic decompensation (3.8 vs 7.9 per 100 PY, P < 0.0001) and liver-related death or transplantation (3.7 vs 6.2 per 100 PY, P < 0.0001) were lower in UDCA responders compared with partial responders. UDCA response was associated with a lower risk of hepatic decompensation (subhazard ratio [sHR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.95, P = 0.03), death from any cause or transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio 0.49, 95% CI 0.33-0.72, P = 0.0002), and liver-related death or transplantation (sHR 0.40, 95% CI 0.24-0.67, P = 0.0004), but not HCC (sHR 0.39, 95% CI 0.60-2.55, P = 0.32). In a sensitivity analysis, the presence of portal hypertension was associated with the highest UDCA-associated effect. DISCUSSION: UDCA response is associated with a reduction in decompensation, all-cause, and liver-related death or transplantation in a cohort of predominantly male patients with cirrhosis, with the highest benefit in patients with portal hypertension.

Gender and Racial Differences in Hospitalizations for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in the USA.

BACKGROUND/AIM: The prevalence, characteristics, burden and trends of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) hospitalizations in the USA remain unclear. METHOD: We identified primary PBC hospitalizations from the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) 2007 through 2014 using ICD-9-CM codes. We calculated the rates and trends of hospitalization for PBC per 100,000 US population among each gender (males and females) and racial categories (Whites, Blacks, Hispanics and other racial minorities), and measured the predictors of hospitalization, and of mortality, charges and length of stay (LOS) among PBC hospitalizations. RESULT: There were 8460 (weighted: 41,191) PBC hospitalizations between 2007 and 2014. The mean national PBC hospitalization rate was 2.2 cases per 100,000 population (2.2/100,000), increasing from 1.7/100,000 (2007) to 2.5/100,000 (2014). From 2007 to 2014, the in-hospital mortality and LOS were unchanged while the charges increased from $65,993 to $73,093 ($225 million to $447 million overall expenses). Compared to Whites, the PBC hospitalization rate was 12% higher among Hispanics (RR: 1.12 [1.09-1.16]), 53% lower in Blacks (RR: 0.47 [0.45-0.49]) and 5% lower among other racial minorities (0.95 [0.91-0.99]). The rate was higher among females (RR:4.02 [3.93-4.12]) compared to males. On multivariate analysis, Blacks and other racial minorities, respectively, had higher odds of mortality (AOR: 1.47 [1.03-2.10] and 1.33 [0.96-1.84]), while other racial minorities had longer LOS (7.0 vs. 5.6 days) and higher hospital charges ($48,984 vs. $41,495) when compared to Whites. CONCLUSION: The hospitalization rate and burden of PBC in the USA have increased disproportionately among females and Hispanics with higher mortality in Blacks.

Long-term impact of preventive UDCA therapy after transplantation for primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recurrence of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) after liver transplantation (LT) is frequent and can impair graft and patient survival. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is the current standard therapy for PBC. We investigated the effect of preventive exposure to UDCA on the incidence and long-term consequences of PBC recurrence after LT. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in 780 patients transplanted for PBC, between 1983-2017 in 16 centers (9 countries), and followed-up for a median of 11 years. Among them, 190 received preventive UDCA (10-15 mg/kg/day). The primary outcome was histological evidence of PBC recurrence. The secondary outcomes were graft loss, liver-related death, and all-cause death. The association between preventive UDCA and outcomes was quantified using multivariable-adjusted Cox and restricted mean survival time (RMST) models. RESULTS: While recurrence of PBC significantly shortened graft and patient survival, preventive exposure to UDCA was associated with reduced risk of PBC recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.41; 95% CI 0.28-0.61; p <0.0001), graft loss (aHR 0.33; 95% CI 0.13-0.82; p <0.05), liver-related death (aHR 0.46; 95% CI 0.22-0.98; p <0.05), and all-cause death (aHR 0.69; 95% CI 0.49-0.96; p <0.05). On RMST analysis, preventive UDCA led to a survival gain of 2.26 years (95% CI 1.28-3.25) over a period of 20 years. Exposure to cyclosporine rather than tacrolimus had a complementary protective effect alongside preventive UDCA, reducing the cumulative incidence of PBC recurrence and all-cause death. CONCLUSIONS: Preventive UDCA after LT for PBC is associated with a reduced risk of disease recurrence, graft loss, and death. A regimen combining cyclosporine and preventive UDCA is associated with the lowest risk of PBC recurrence and mortality. LAY SUMMARY: Recurrence of primary biliary cholangitis after liver transplantation is frequent and can impair graft and patient survival. We performed the largest international study of transplanted patients with primary biliary cholangitis to date. Preventive administration of ursodeoxycholic acid after liver transplantation was associated with reduced risk of disease recurrence, graft loss, liver-related and all-cause mortality. A regimen combining cyclosporine and preventive ursodeoxycholic acid was associated with the best outcomes.

Factors Associated With Recurrence of Primary Biliary Cholangitis After Liver Transplantation and Effects on Graft and Patient Survival.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) frequently recurs after liver transplantation. We evaluated risk factors associated with recurrence of PBC and its effects on patient and graft survival in a multicenter, international cohort (the Global PBC Study Group). METHODS: We collected demographic and clinical data from 785 patients (89% female) with PBC who underwent liver transplantation (mean age, 54 ± 9 years) from February 1983 through June 2016, among 13 centers in North America and Europe. Results from biochemical tests performed within 12 months of liver transplantation were analyzed to determine whether markers of cholestasis could identify patients with recurrence of PBC (based on histologic analysis). Patients were followed for a median 6.9 years (interquartile range, 6.1-7.9 years). RESULTS: PBC recurred in 22% of patients after 5 years and 36% after 10 years. Age at diagnosis <50 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.79; 95% CI, 1.36-2.36; P < .001), age at liver transplantation <60 years (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.90; P = .04), use of tacrolimus (HR, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.72-3.10; P < .001), and biochemical markers of severe cholestasis (bilirubin ≥100 µmol or alkaline phosphatase >3-fold the upper limit of normal) at 6 months after liver transplantation (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.16-2.76; P = .008) were associated with higher risk of PBC recurrence, whereas use of cyclosporine reduced risk of PBC recurrence (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.46-0.82; P = .001). In multivariable Cox regression with time-dependent covariate, recurrence of PBC significantly associated with graft loss (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.16-3.51; P = .01) and death (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.11-2.65; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: Younger age at the time of diagnosis with PBC or at liver transplantation, tacrolimus use, and biochemical markers of cholestasis after liver transplantation are associated with PBC recurrence. PBC recurrence reduces odds of graft and patient survival. Strategies are needed to prevent PBC recurrence or reduce its negative effects.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment Preferentially Improves Overall Survival Among African Americans With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: We used data from the Fibrotic Liver Disease Consortium to evaluate the impact of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment across race/ethnicity, gender, and clinical status among patients with primary biliary cholangitis. METHODS: Data were collected from "index date" (baseline) through December 31, 2016. Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting was used to adjust for UDCA treatment selection bias. Cox regression, focusing on UDCA-by-risk factor interactions, was used to assess the association between treatment and mortality and liver transplant/death. RESULTS: Among 4,238 patients with primary biliary cholangitis (13% men; 8% African American, 7% Asian American/American Indian/Pacific Island [ASINPI]; 21% Hispanic), 78% had ever received UDCA. The final multivariable model for mortality retained age, household income, comorbidity score, total bilirubin, albumin, alkaline phosphatase, and interactions of UDCA with race, gender, and aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ≥1.1. Among untreated patients, African Americans and ASINPIs had higher mortality than whites (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.67 and aHR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.11-1.76, respectively). Among treated patients, this relationship was reversed (aHR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.51-0.86 and aHR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.67-1.16). Patterns were similar for liver transplant/death. UDCA reduced the risk of liver transplant/death in all patient groups and mortality across all groups except white women with aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ≥1.1. As compared to patients with low-normal bilirubin at baseline (≤0.4 mg/dL), those with high-normal (1.0 > 0.7) and mid-normal bilirubin (0.7 > 0.4) had significantly higher liver transplant/death and all-cause mortality. DISCUSSION: African American and ASINPI patients who did not receive UDCA had significantly higher mortality than white patients. Among African Americans, treatment was associated with significantly lower mortality. Regardless of UDCA treatment, higher baseline bilirubin, even within the normal range, was associated with increased mortality and liver transplant/death compared with low-normal levels.

Primary Biliary Cholangitis in Medicare Population: The Impact on Mortality and Resource Use.

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a disease of small bile ducts, which can lead to morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to assess recent trends in mortality and healthcare use of PBC patients in the Medicare program. Data from Medicare beneficiaries between 2005 and 2015 (5% random samples) were used. The diagnosis of PBC was established with International Classification of Diseases-9 code 571.6 used for both primary and secondary diagnoses. Mortality was assessed by Medicare-linked death registry. Healthcare use included episodes of care, length of stay, and total charges/payments. Independent predictors of outcomes were evaluated in multiple generalized linear or logistic regression models. The study cohort included a total of 6,375 inpatient/outpatient Medicare beneficiaries (mean age 69.8 years, 17% male, 88% white, and 18% with disability). Over the study period, 1-year mortality remained stable (9.1% to 14.3%, P = 0.11). Independent predictors of 1-year mortality were older age, male gender, black race, the presence of ascites, encephalopathy, hepatocellular carcinoma, and higher Charlson score. Outpatient total yearly charges and payments per beneficiary with PBC increased from $3,065 and $777 (2005) to $5,773 and $967 (2014), respectively. Similarly, inpatient total yearly charges and payments per beneficiary with PBC increased from $59,765 and $19,406 (2007), to $98,941 and $27,948 (2013), respectively (P < 0.05). The presence of ascites, portal hypertension, and higher Charlson score were independent predictors of higher payments for both inpatient and outpatient resource use, and the presence of hepatic encephalopathy was an additional predictor of higher inpatient resource use (all P < 0.02). Conclusion: The prevalence of PBC among the Medicare beneficiaries has increased. Despite stable mortality rates, resource use for Medicare patients with PBC continues to rise.

IgM response is a prognostic biomarker of primary biliary cholangitis treated with ursodeoxycholic acid and bezafibrate.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) patients who are refractory to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) are at risk for progression to cirrhosis and liver failure. Bezafibrate could be an alternative second-line therapeutic option in these patients. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term outcome(s) of combined UDCA and bezafibrate therapy in UDCA-refractory PBC patients and identify prognostic factors. METHODS: Among 445 patients treated with UDCA, 150 patients inadequately responded to UDCA monotherapy and received long-term UDCA plus bezafibrate (median, 15 years). Data from these patients were used for this retrospective analysis. RESULTS: Combination therapy resulted in significant improvements in serum biochemistry and liver transplantation risk estimated using the UK-PBC-risk and the GLOBE scores. The cumulative normalization rates of alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyltransferase, and immunoglobulin M (IgM) were significantly higher in patients without cirrhosis-related symptoms or liver-related events than in those with them. Overall, IgM constantly emerged as a significant factor associated with cirrhosis-related symptoms and liver-related events at all time points. Cumulative survival rates were significantly lower in patients with IgM ≥ 240 mg/dL than in patients with IgM < 240 mg/dL. Thus, normalization of IgM levels was a good surrogate predictor of long-term prognosis. None of the patients discontinued combination therapy due to any adverse events during the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings point to the beneficial effects of long-term UDCA plus bezafibrate combination therapy for UDCA-refractory PBC patients, and IgM response can be a useful predictive biomarker of long-term clinical outcomes.

Race/Ethnicity and Insurance-Specific Disparities in In-Hospital Mortality Among Adults with Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Analysis of 2007-2014 National Inpatient Sample.

BACKGROUND: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a progressive autoimmune liver disease that can result in cirrhosis and end-stage liver disease. AIMS: We aim to evaluate hospitalization burden and in-hospital mortality among PBC patients in the USA. METHODS: Using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2007 to 2014, hospitalizations among US adults with PBC were stratified by sex, age, and race/ethnicity. Overall in-hospital mortality was stratified by these variables and adjusted multivariate regression models evaluated for predictors of in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: From 2007 to 2014, there were 18,279 hospitalizations among adults with PBC (15.0% male, mean age 63.8 years, 41.3% cirrhosis). Among non-Hispanic whites, the proportion of total PBC hospitalizations increased from 57.8% in 2007 to 71.2% in 2014, compared to 4.1-6.3% for African-Americans, 8.6-10.9% for Hispanics, and 1.7-2.8% for Asians (p < 0.001 for all). While overall in-hospital mortality was low (4.2%), increasing age was associated with higher odds of in-hospital mortality (OR: 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03, p < 0.001). Compared to non-Hispanic white PBC patients, higher in-hospital mortality was observed in African-American PBC patients (OR: 1.40, 95% CI 1.16-2.03, p < 0.05). Compared to patients with private/commercial insurance, significantly higher odds of in-hospital mortality were observed in patients with Medicaid insurance (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.00-1.99, p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: In summary, among adults with PBC hospitalized in the USA from 2007 to 2014, the overall number of hospitalizations is increasing. Significant disparities in in-hospital mortality were observed; African-Americans with PBC and Medicaid patients with PBC have disproportionately higher odds of in-hospital mortality.

Two-stage optimal designs based on exact variance for a single-arm trial with survival endpoints.

Sample size calculation based on normal approximations is often associated with the loss of statistical power for a single-arm trial with a time-to-event endpoint. Recently, Wu (2015) derived the exact variance for the one-sample log-rank test under the alternative and showed that a single-arm one-stage study based on exact variance often has power above the nominal level while the type I error rate is controlled. We extend this approach to a single-arm two-stage design by using exact variances of the one-sample log-rank test for the first stage and the two stages combined. The empirical power of the proposed two-stage optimal designs is often not guaranteed under a two-stage design setting, which could be due to the asymptotic bi-variate normal distribution used to estimate the joint distribution of the test statistics. We adjust the nominal power level in the design search to guarantee the simulated power of the identified optimal design being above the nominal level. The sample size and the study time savings of the proposed two-stage designs are substantial as compared to the one-stage design.

Score and deviance residuals based on the full likelihood approach in survival analysis.

Assuming the proportional hazards model and non-informative censoring, the full likelihood approach is used to obtain two new residuals. The first residual is based on the ideas used in obtaining score-type residuals similar to the partial likelihood approach. The second type of residual is based on the concept of deviance residuals. Extensive simulations are conducted to compare the performance of the residuals from the full likelihood-based approach with those of the partial likelihood method. We demonstrate through simulation studies that the full likelihood-based residuals are more efficient than their partial likelihood counterpart in identifying potential outliers when the censoring proportion is high. The graphical techniques are used to illustrate the applications of these residuals using some examples.

Contributing factors and outcomes of burn-associated cholestasis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Cholestasis often occurs after burn injuries. However, the prevalence of cholestasis and its effect on outcomes in patients with severe burn injuries are unknown. The aim of this study was to describe the course and the burden of cholestasis in a cohort of severely burned adult patients. METHODS: We investigated the relationship between burn-associated cholestasis (BAC) and clinical outcomes in a retrospective cohort of patients admitted to our unit for severe burn injuries between 2012 and 2015. BAC was defined as an increased level of serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) ≥1.5x the upper limit of normal (ULN) with an increased level of gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) ≥3x ULN, or as an increased level of total bilirubin ≥2x ULN. RESULTS: A total of 214 patients were included: 111 (52%) patients developed BAC after a median (IQR) stay of 9 (5-16) days. At 90 days, the mortality rate was 20%, including 34 and 9 patients with and without BAC (p <0.001), respectively, which corresponded to a 2.5-fold higher (95% CI 1.2-5.2, p = 0.012) risk of 90-day mortality for patients with BAC. After being adjusted for severity of illness, patients with BAC, hyperbilirubinemia and without elevated ALP and GGT levels had a hazard ratio of 4.51 (95% CI 1.87-10.87) for 90-day mortality. BAC was associated with the severity of the burn injury, shock and bacteraemia. BAC was present in 38 (51%) patients at discharge, and 7 (18%) patients had secondary sclerosing cholangitis. These patients maintained elevated levels of ALP and GGT that were 5.8x (1.7-15) the ULN and 11x the ULN (4.5-22), respectively, 20 months (3.5-35) after discharge. CONCLUSION: BAC is prevalent among patients with severe burn injuries and is associated with worse short-term outcomes, especially when total bilirubin levels were increased without elevated ALP and GGT levels. BAC survivors are at risk of developing sclerosing cholangitis. LAY SUMMARY: Cholestasis is common after burn injuries and is associated with burn severity, sepsis, organ failure and mortality. Patients with hyperbilirubinemia without elevated alkaline phosphatase and gamma-glutamyltransferase levels after the burn injury have a poor prognosis. Patients with burn-associated cholestasis may develop sclerosing cholangitis and secondary biliary cirrhosis.

Validation of Risk Scoring Systems in Ursodeoxycholic Acid-Treated Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Risk stratification based on biochemical variables is a useful tool for monitoring ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)-treated patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several UDCA response criteria and scoring systems have been proposed for risk prediction in PBC, but these have not been validated in large external cohorts. METHODS: We performed a study on data of 1746 UDCA-treated patients with PBC from 25 centers in Europe, United States, and Canada. The prognostic performance of the risk scoring systems (GLOBE and UK-PBC) and the UDCA response criteria (Barcelona, Paris I, Paris II, Rotterdam, and Toronto) were evaluated. We regarded cirrhosis-related complications (ascites, variceal bleeding, and/or hepatic encephalopathy) as clinical end points. RESULTS: A total of 171 patients reached a clinical end point during a median 7 years (range 1-16 years) of follow-up. The 5-, 10- and 15-year adverse outcome-free survivals were 95%, 85%, and 77%. The GLOBE and UK-PBC scores predicted cirrhosis-related complications better than the UDCA response criteria. The hazard ratio (HR) for a 1 standard deviation increase was HR 5.05 (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.43-5.74, P < 0.001) for the GLOBE score and HR 3.39 (95% CI: 3.10-3.72, P < 0.001) for the UK-PBC score. Overall, the GLOBE and UK-PBC risk scores showed similar and excellent prognostic performance (C-statistic, 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91%-95% vs 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91%-0.96%). DISCUSSION: In our international, multicenter PBC cohort, the GLOBE and UK-PBC risk scoring systems were good predictors of future cirrhosis-related complications.