Development of an Online App to Predict Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Adverse Events Using a Single-Center Retrospective Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is a technically demanding procedure with a high risk for adverse events (AEs). AIM: evaluate patient- and procedure-related risk factors for ERCP-related AEs and develop an online app to estimate risk of AEs. METHODS: retrospective study of 1,491 consecutive patients who underwent 1,991 ERCPs between 2012 and 2017 was conducted. AEs definition and severity were classified according to most recent ESGE guidelines. Each variable was tested for association with occurrence of overall AEs, post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) and cholangitis. For each outcome, 2 regression models were built, from which an online Shiny-based app was created. RESULTS: Overall AE rate was 15.3%; in 19 procedures, >1 AE occurred. Main post-ERCP AE was PEP (7.5%), followed by cholangitis (4.9%), bleeding (1.3%), perforation (1%), cardiopulmonary events (0.9%), and cholecystitis (0.3%). Seventy-eight percent of AEs were mild/moderate; of severe (n = 55) and fatal (n = 20) AEs, more than half were related to infection, cardiac/pulmonary AEs, and perforation. AE-related mortality rate was 1%. When testing precannulation, procedural covariates, and ERCP findings, AE occurrence was associated with age (odds ratio [OR] 0.991), previous PEP (OR 2.198), ERCP complexity grade III/IV (OR 1.924), standard bile duct cannulation (OR 0.501), sphincterotomy (OR 1.441), metal biliary stent placement (OR 2.014), periprocedural bleeding (OR 3.024), and biliary duct lithiasis (OR 0.673). CONCLUSION: Our app may allow an optimization of the patients' care, by helping in the process of decision-making, not only regarding patient or endoscopist's selection but also definition of an adequate and tailored surveillance plan after the procedure.

Effect of hospital teaching status on endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography mortality and complications in the USA.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to assess the differences in outcomes of cholecystitis, pancreatitis, gastrointestinal (GI) bleed, GI perforation, and mortality in teaching versus nonteaching hospitals nationwide among therapeutic and diagnostic ERCPs. We hypothesized that complication rates would be higher in teaching hospitals given greater patient complexity. METHODS: Inpatient diagnostic and therapeutic ERCPs were identified from the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) from 2008 to 2012. The presence of ACGME-approved residency programs is required to qualify as a teaching hospital. Nonteaching urban and rural hospitals were grouped together. We identified hospital stays complicated by pancreatitis, cholecystitis, GI hemorrhage, perforation, and mortality. Logistic regression propensity-matched analysis was performed in SPSS to compare differences in complication rates between teaching and nonteaching hospitals. RESULTS: A total of 1,466,356 weighted cases of inpatient ERCPs were included in this study: of those, 367 and188 were diagnostic, 1,099,168 were therapeutic, 766,230 were at teaching hospitals, and 700,126 were at nonteaching hospitals. Mortality rates were higher in teaching hospitals when compared to nonteaching hospitals for diagnostic (OR 1.266, p < 0.001) and therapeutic ERCPs (OR 1.157, p = 0.001). There was no significant difference in rates of post-ERCP cholecystitis, pancreatitis, or perforation between the two groups. Among diagnostic ERCPs, GI hemorrhage was higher in teaching compared to nonteaching hospitals (OR 1.181, p = 0.003). Likewise, length of stay was increased in teaching hospitals (7.9 vs 6.9 days, p < 0.001, for diagnostic and 6.5 vs 5.8 days, p < 0.001, for therapeutic ERCPs). CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, teaching hospitals were noted to have a higher mortality rate associated with inpatient ERCPs as well as higher rates of GI hemorrhage in diagnostic ERCPs, which may be due to a higher comorbidity index in those patients admitted to teaching hospitals.

ERCP-related perforations: a population-based study of incidence, mortality, and risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Perforations related to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) are rare but feared adverse events with highly reported morbidity and mortality rates. The aim was to evaluate the incidence and outcome of ERCP-related perforations and to identify risk factors for death due to perforations in a population-based study. METHODS: Between May 2005 and December 2013, a total of 52,140 ERCPs were registered in GallRiks, a Swedish nationwide, population-based registry. A total of 376 (0.72%) were registered as perforations or extravasation of contrast during ERCP or as perforation in the 30-day follow-up. The patients with perforation were divided into fatal and non-fatal groups and analyzed for mortality risk factors. The case volume of centers and endoscopists were divided into the upper quartile (Q4) and the lower three quartile (Q1-3) groups. Furthermore, fatal group patients' records were reviewed. RESULTS: Death within 90 days after ERCP-related perforations or at the index hospitalization occurred in 20% (75 out of 376) for all perforations and 0.1% (75 out of 52,140) for all ERCPs. The independent risk factors for death after perforation were malignancy (OR 11.2, 95% CI 5.8-21.6), age over 80 years (OR 3.8, 95% CI 2.0-7.4), and sphincterotomy in the pancreatic duct (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.1-7.5). In Q4 centers, the mortality was similar with or without pancreatic duct sphincterotomy (14% vs. 13%, p = 1.0), but in Q1-3 centers mortality was higher (45% vs. 21%, p = 0.024). CONCLUSIONS: ERCP-related perforations are severe adverse events with low incidence (0.7%) and high mortality rate up to 20%. Malignancy, age over 80 years, and sphincterotomy in the pancreatic duct increase the risk to die after a perforation. The risk of a fatal outcome in perforations after pancreatic duct sphincterotomy was reduced when occurred at a Q4-center. In the case of a complicated perforation a transfer to a Q4-center may be considered.

Sedation-related complications during anesthesiologist-administered sedation for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) require adequate sedation or general anesthesia. To date, there is lack of consensus regarding who should administer sedation in these patients. Several studies have investigated the safety and efficacy of non-anesthesiologist-administered sedation for ERCP; however, data regarding anesthesiologist-administered sedation remain limited. This prospective single-center study investigated the safety and efficacy of anesthesiologist-administered sedation and the rate of successful performed ERCP procedures. METHODS: The study included 200 patients who underwent ERCP following anesthesiologist-administered sedation with propofol and remifentanil. Procedural data, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure (SBP), heart rate, recovery score, patient and endoscopist satisfaction, as well as 30-day mortality and morbidity data were analyzed. RESULTS: Sedation-related complications occurred in 36 of 200 patients (18%) and included hypotension (SBP < 90 mmHg) and hypoxemia (O2 saturation < 90%) in 18 patients (9%) each. Most events were minor and did not necessitate discontinuation of the procedure. However, ERCP was terminated in 2 patients (1%) secondary to sedation-related complications. Successful cannulation was performed in all patients. The mean duration of the examination was 25 ± 16 min. Mean recovery time was 14 ± 10 min, and high post-procedural satisfaction was observed in both, patients (mean visual analogue scale [VAS] 9.6 ± 0.8) and endoscopists (mean VAS 9.3 ± 1.3). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that anesthesiologist-administered sedation is safe in patients undergoing ERCP and is associated with a high rate of successful ERCP, shorter procedure time, and more rapid post-anesthesia recovery, with high patient and endoscopist satisfaction.

Folfirinox chemotherapy prolongs stent patency in patients with malignant biliary obstruction due to unresectable pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Stent insertion for biliary decompression to relieve jaundice and subsequent biliary infection is necessary for patients with biliary obstruction caused by pancreatic cancer, and it is important to keep the stent patent as long as possible. However, few studies have compared stent patency in terms of chemotherapy in patients with pancreatic cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the differences in stent patency in terms of recently evolving chemotherapy. METHODS: Between January 2015 and May 2017, 161 patients with pancreatic cancer who had undergone biliary stent insertion with a metal stent were retrospectively analyzed. The relationship between chemotherapy and stent patency was assessed. Additionally, overall survival according to the treatment, risk factors for stent patency, and long-term adverse events were evaluated. RESULTS: Median stent patency was 42 days for patients with the best supportive care and 217 days for patients with chemotherapy (conventional gemcitabine-based chemotherapy and folfirinox) (P < 0.001). Furthermore, the folfirinox group showed the longest median stent patency and overall survival, with 283 days and 466 days, respectively (P < 0.001) despite higher adverse events rate. Patients who underwent folfirinox chemotherapy after stent insertion had better stent patency in multivariate analysis (HR = 0.26; 95% CI: 0.12-0.60; P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with patients who received best supportive care only, patients who underwent chemotherapy after stent insertion had better stent patency. More prolonged stent patency can be expected for patients with folfirinox than conventional gemcitabine-based chemotherapy.

Balloons larger than 15 mm can increase the risk of adverse events following endoscopic papillary large balloon dilation.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Although endoscopic papillary large balloon dilation (EPLBD) has been widely used to facilitate the removal of difficult common bile duct stones, however, the outcomes have not yet been investigated in terms of the diameter of the balloon used. We aimed to compare the clinical outcomes between EPLBD using smaller (12-15 mm, S-EPLBD) and larger balloons (> 15 mm, L-EPLBD). METHODS: Six hundred seventy-two patients who underwent EPLBD with or without endoscopic sphincterotomy for common bile duct stone removal were enrolled from May 2004 to August 2014 at four tertiary referral centers in Korea. The outcomes, including the initial success rate, the success rate without endoscopic mechanical lithotripsy, the overall success rate, and adverse events between S-EPLBD and L-EPLBD groups, were retrospectively compared. RESULTS: The initial success rate, the success rate without mechanical lithotripsy, the overall success rate, and the overall adverse events were not significantly different between the two groups. The rate of severe-to-fatal adverse events was higher in the L-EPBLD group than in the S-EPLBD group (1.6% vs 0.0%, 0.020). One case of severe bleeding and two cases of fatal perforation occurred only in the L-EPLBD group. In the multivariate analysis, the use of a > 15-mm balloon was the only significant risk factor for severe-to-fatal adverse events (>0.005, 23.8 [adjusted odds ratio], 2.6-214.4 [95% confidence interval]). CONCLUSIONS: L-EPLBD is significantly related to severe-to-fatal adverse events compared with S-EPLBD for common bile duct stone removal.

Endoscopic biliary drainage in unresectable biliary obstruction: the role of endoscopic ultrasound-guidance in a cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: the use of endoscopic ultrasound-guided biliary drainage (EUS-BD) has increased in cases of failed endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) and there are some concerns. The main aim of the study was to determine the role of EUS-BD in a palliative case cohort. The secondary aim was to compare the efficacy, safety and survival of EUS-BD and ERCP procedures. PATIENTS AND METHODS: this was an observational study at a single tertiary institution, with a consecutive inclusion from January 2015 to December 2016. The inclusion criteria were unresectable tumors of the biliopancreatic region with an indication of BD. Statistical comparison analysis was performed between the ERCP and EUS-BD groups. The incidence between groups was compared using the Chi-square and Fisher exact tests. The log rank test was used to compare the risk of death. RESULTS: fifty-two cases with an indication of palliative BD were included in the study. Transpapillary drainage via ERCP was possible in 44 procedures and EUS-BD was required in eight cases; 15.4% of the cohort and seven using lumen apposing metal stent (LAMS). The technical and clinical success of global endoscopic BD was 100% and 88.5% (ERCP: 84.6% and 78.9%; EUS-BD: 100% and 62.5%, respectively). Pancreatitis was the most frequent adverse event (AE) in the ERCP group (9.62%) and bleeding in the EUS-BD (25%). There were fatal AEs in ERCP (1.9%) and EUS-BD (25%) cases. Patient survival was higher with ERCP transpapillary stents compared to EUS-guided stents, which was statistically significant (p = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: the requirement of EUS-BD in palliative biliopancreatic pathology is not marginal. EUS-BD is associated with a lower survival rate and a higher rate of fatal AE, which argues against its use as a first choice procedure.

[A retrospective analysis of clinical characteristics and mortality risks in elderly patients with acute cholecystitis and cholangitis].

Objective: To analyze the clinical characteristics and explore the risk predictors on mortality in elderly patients with acute cholecystitis and cholangitis. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of elderly patients hospitalized in the Second Medical Center of General Liberation Army Hospital for acute cholecystitis and cholangitis during 2000 to 2018. Clinical data and risk predictors on mortality were assessed. The patients were stratified into three groups based on age:Ⅰ (65-74 years old),Ⅱ (75-84 years old), and Ⅲ (≥85 years old). Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of mortality. Results: A total of 574 patients were finally enrolled with the mean age 87.6 years including 191 in group Ⅰ, 167 in group Ⅱ, and 216 in group Ⅲ. The main cause of acute cholecystitis and cholangitis was gallstone (76.3%),and the main symptom was abdominal pain (62.9%),followed by chills(62.5%),fever(59.8%),jaundice (47.2%) and septic shock(26.3%). Cholecystitis was the most common diagnosis in groups Ⅰ and Ⅱ,whereas it was cholangitis in group Ⅲ. Percutaneous transhepatic biliary/gallbladder drainage (PTBD/PTGD) and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) were administrated more frequently in groups Ⅲ. A total of 35 patients (6.1%) died during follow-up. Senior in age (OR=11.1),the Charlson comorbidity index (OR=19.5),cancers (OR=9.6),blood stream infections (OR=7.4),severity of cholecystitis and cholangitis (OR=4.2) were risk factors associated with mortality. Conclusions: Even in the elderly patients with acute cholecystitis and cholangitis,comorbidity is one of the main factors affecting clinical outcomes. Due to the poor performance, this group of population presents more severe disease and undergoes conservative treatment strategies.

No Association of Timing of Endoscopic Biliary Drainage with Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Non-severe Acute Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: Biliary drainage via endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is the first-line treatment for acute cholangitis. Despite the established effectiveness of urgent biliary drainage in patients with severe acute cholangitis, the indication of this procedure for non-severe acute cholangitis is controversial. AIMS: To assess the safety of elective drainage (≥ 12 h of admission) for non-severe acute cholangitis. METHODS: We retrospectively identified 461 patients with non-severe acute cholangitis who underwent endoscopic biliary drainage. Using linear regression models with adjustment for a variety of potential confounders, we compared elective versus urgent biliary drainage (< 12 h of admission) in terms of clinical outcomes. The primary outcome was the length of stay. RESULTS: There were 98 and 201 patients who underwent elective and urgent biliary drainage, respectively. The median length of stay was 11 days in both groups (P = 0.52). The timing of ERCP was not associated with length of stay in the multivariable model (P = 0.52). Secondary outcomes including in-hospital mortality and recurrence of cholangitis were not different between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Elective biliary drainage was not associated with worse clinical outcomes of non-severe acute cholangitis as compared to urgent drainage. Further investigation is warranted to justify the elective drainage for non-severe cholangitis.

A Prospective Multicenter Study of a Fully Covered Metal Stent in Patients with Distal Malignant Biliary Obstruction: WATCH-2 Study.

BACKGROUND: Both fully covered (FC) and partially covered (PC) self-expandable metal stents (SEMSs) are now commercially available for distal malignant biliary obstruction (MBO). While FCSEMS can be easily removed at the time of re-interventions, it is theoretically prone to migration. However, few comparative data between FC and PC SEMSs have been reported. AIMS: The aim of this study was to compare clinical outcomes of FCSEMS with those of PCSEMS. METHODS: This was a multicenter, prospective study of FCSEMS for unresectable distal MBO with a historical control of PCSEMS, which was previously reported as the WATCH study. The primary outcome was recurrent biliary obstruction (RBO), and secondary outcomes were stent migration, stent removal, stent-related adverse events, and survival. RESULTS: A total of 151 cases with unresectable distal MBO undergoing FCSEMS placement were enrolled and compared with a historical cohort of 141 cases undergoing PCSEMS placement. No significant differences were found in the rate of RBO (29 vs. 33%; P = 0.451), time to RBO (318 vs. 373 days; P = 0.382), and survival (229 vs. 196 days; P = 0.177) between FCSEMS and PCSEMS. The rate of stent migration also did not differ significantly between the two groups (14 vs. 8%; P = 0.113). The removal of FCSEMSs was successful in all 24 attempted cases (100%). CONCLUSIONS: FCSEMSs appeared comparable to PCSEMSs in terms of RBO without a significant increase in stent migration rate in patients with unresectable distal MBO. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UMIN000007131.

Clinical update on management of pancreatic trauma.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic injury is rare and optimal diagnosis and management is still debated. The aim of this study was to review the existing data and consensus on management of pancreatic trauma. METHODS: Systematic literature review until May 2018. RESULTS: Pancreas injury is reported in 0.2-0.3% of all trauma patients. Severity is scored by the organ injury scale (OIS), with new scores including physiology needing validation. Diagnosis is difficult, clinical signs subtle, and imaging by ultrasound (US) and computed tomography (CT) non-specific with <60% sensitivity for pancreatic duct injury. MRCP and ERCP have superior sensitivity (90-100%) for detecting ductal disruption. Early ERCP with stent is a feasible approach for initial management of all branch-duct and most main-duct injuries. Distal pancreatectomy (±splenectomy) may be required for a transected gland distal to the major vessels. Early peripancreatic fluid collections are common in ductal injuries and one-fifth may develop pseudocysts, of which two-thirds can be managed conservatively. Non-operative management has a high success rate (50-75%), even in high-grade injuries, but associated with morbidity. Mortality is related to associated injuries. CONCLUSION: Pancreatic injuries are rare and can often be managed non-operatively, supported by percutaneous drainage and ductal stenting. Distal pancreatectomy is the most common operative procedure.

Risk factors and outcomes of pyogenic liver abscess in adult liver recipients: a matched case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Adult liver recipients (ALR) differ from the general population with pyogenic liver abscess (PLA) as they exhibit: reconstructed biliary anatomy, recurrent hospitalizations, poor clinical condition and are subjected to immunosuppression. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors associated with PLA in ALR and to analyze the management experience of these patients. METHODS: Between 1996 and 2016, 879 adult patients underwent liver transplantation (LT), 26 of whom developed PLA. Patients and controls were matched according to the time from transplant to abscess in a 1 to 5 relation. A logistic regression model was performed to establish PLA risk factors considering clusters for matched cases and controls. Risk factors were identified and a multivariate regression analysis performed. RESULTS: Patients with post-LT PLA were more likely to have lower BMI (p = 0.006), renal failure (p = 0.031) and to have undergone retransplantation (p = 0.002). A history of hepatic artery thrombosis (p = 0.010), the presence of Roux en-Y hepatojejunostomy (p < 0.001) and longer organ ischemia time (p = 0.009) were independent predictors for the development of post-LT PLA. Five-year survival was 49% (95%CI 28-67%) and 89% (95%CI 78%-94%) for post-LT PLA and no post-LT PLA, respectively (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: history of hepatic artery thrombosis, the presence of hepatojejunostomy and a longer ischemia time represent independent predictors for the development of post-LT PLA. There was a significantly poorer survival in patients who developed post-LT PLA compared with those who did not.

Outcomes of Salvage Percutaneous Biliary Drainage after Occlusion of Endoscopic Stents.

PURPOSE: To describe outcomes of patients with malignant biliary obstruction who undergo salvage percutaneous biliary drainage after occlusion of endoscopic biliary stents. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A single-center retrospective review was performed of 47 patients (25 men, 22 women) who underwent percutaneous biliary drainage for recurrent obstruction after endoscopic stent placement between 2005 and 2015. Primary malignancies were bile duct (n = 13), colorectal (n = 11), gallbladder (n = 7), pancreas (n = 5), hepatocellular (n = 4), and other (n = 7). Indication for salvage drain placement was infection (n = 19) and jaundice or need to decrease bilirubin (n = 28). Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods were used for survival analysis. Logistic and multivariate regressions were employed to identify factors associated with survival. RESULTS: Median survival after salvage biliary drain placement was 1.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-2.7). Elevated international normalized ratio (INR) ≥ 1.5 before drainage was associated with poorer survival after drainage (median survival 0.7 months vs 2.4 months, P < .01). Median survival was shorter in 28 patients (64%) with bilirubin ≤ 2 mg/dL (34.2 µmol/L) after drainage (1.2 months vs 5.4 months, P < .001). Left-sided drain placement, elevated bilirubin, and elevated INR correlated with decreased likelihood of achieving bilirubin ≤ 2 mg/dL (34.2 µmol/L) (odds ratio [OR] 0.13, 95% CI, 0.02-0.71, P = .02; OR 0.18, 95% CI, 0.05-0.69, P = .01; OR 0.10, 95% CI, 0.01-0.90, P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: Survival is limited for most patients who undergo salvage percutaneous biliary drainage. Elevated bilirubin and INR before drainage portend a poor prognosis.

Clinical outcomes of ERCP-related retroperitoneal perforations.

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP)-related perforations represent rare but often severe conditions. While lesions with intraperitoneal perforation have an almost imperative indication to surgery, whether or not to manage retroperitoneal perforations surgically is still an area of debate. The aim of the present work was to review the available clinical evidence on the operatively and medically treated ERCP-related retroperitoneal perforations. From MEDLINE/PubMed databases 137 patients with retroperitoneal perforation were included from 12 studies that met the selection criteria for data investigation and analysis. Twenty-four patients were treated by prompt surgery; 113 were primarily managed conservatively and about 20% of these patients required surgery subsequently. Overall, the morbidity and mortality were 15.4% and 6.6%, respectively. Although most patients with retroperitoneal perforation may benefit from a non-operative management, a considerable number of patients fail to respond to medical treatment and require surgery afterwards. Identifying those patients who are at highest risk of poor outcome after conservative treatment should be considered a research priority.

Weekend vs. Weekday Admissions for Cholangitis Requiring an ERCP: Comparison of Outcomes in a National Cohort.

OBJECTIVES: There has been increasing medical literature showing worse outcomes in patients admitted for medical and surgical conditions on the weekend. This has been termed the weekend effect. Little is known whether this weekend effect occurs for patients with cholangitis who require endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), a procedure that requires many resources from the nursing staff, anesthesia, and the endoscopist. METHODS: Retrospective analysis from the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database from 2009 through 2012. Patient data were abstracted from the database for patients admitted on the weekend and weekday with cholangitis who underwent ERCP. Time to ERCP, length of stay, total cost, and mortality were compared in patients admitted with cholangitis on the weekend vs. weekday who required ERCP. ERCP adverse events were recorded from the weekend vs. weekday as well. RESULTS: Twenty-three thousand six-hundred sixty-one patients were identified in the NIS database who were admitted for cholangitis who required ERCP in the study period, of which 18,106 (76.5%) patients were admitted on the weekday, whereas 5,555 (23.5%) were admitted on the weekend. By 24 h, the weekday group had undergone ERCP more frequently than the weekend group (54.6 vs. 43%; P<0.001). By 48 h, the weekday group had undergone ERCP more frequently than the weekend group (70 vs. 65.4%; P<0.001). By 72 h, both groups had undergone a similar rate of ERCP (79.7 vs. 78.9%; P=0.17). There was no statistical difference between the groups for in-hospital all-cause mortality (2.86 vs. 2.56%; P=0.24), length of stay (6.97 days vs. 6.88 days; P=0.28), or total cost of hospitalization ($71,552 vs $71,469; P=0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Despite a delay in regard to time to ERCP for weekend admissions, there was no weekend effect observed in regard to length of stay, mortality, or total cost of hospitalization. Although biliary drainage with ERCP is important, these results suggest that other factors in the management of cholangitis (e.g., antibiotics and intravenous fluids) contribute to outcomes.

All-cause mortality after ERCP.

Background and study aims: This study aimed to externally validate a recently developed English model for the prediction of 30-day mortality after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Real-world mortality data beyond 30 days post-ERCP are scarce; thus, the study also aimed to develop a prediction model for mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP. Patients and methods: All patients who underwent their first ERCP during a 3-year period (n = 16 478), as identified from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Registry, were linked to the Swedish Death Registry. Factors associated with all-cause mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP were identified by Cox proportional hazards analysis. A prediction model was developed. Results: Post-ERCP mortality was 5 % at 30 days and increased to 11.9 % at 3 months. The English model slightly overpredicted 30-day mortality, which was corrected with recalibration. Discriminant validity of the recalibrated model was very good (c-statistic = 0.82). Independent predictors of medium-term mortality were: emergency admission (hazard ratio [HR] 1.48), cancer (HR 3.79), noncancer co-morbidity (1.33), gallstone-related diagnosis (HR 0.21), and age (HR 4.86 for ≥ 85 years vs. < 55 years). The c-statistic for 3 - 12-month mortality was 0.86 - 0.88. Specific ERCP complication codes were identified in 1.8 % of deaths within 30 days post-ERCP (0.09 % of ERCPs), and 75 % of deaths (18 % of ERCPs) within 1 year post-ERCP were due to cancer. Conclusions: Mortality doubled from 30 days to 3 months post-ERCP, but it was attributed mainly to underlying disease, notably cancer, and infrequently to ERCP-related causes. A previously developed model predicting 30-day mortality was externally validated. A model accurately predicting mortality up to 12 months post-ERCP was developed.

Weekend Admission for Acute Cholangitis Does Not Adversely Impact Clinical or Endoscopic Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Acute cholangitis (AC) requires prompt diagnosis and treatment for optimal management. AIMS: To examine whether a putative "weekend effect" impact outcomes of patients hospitalized for AC. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of patients admitted with AC between 2009 and 2012. After excluding those not meeting Tokyo consensus criteria for AC, the cohort was categorized into weekend (Saturday-Sunday) and weekday (Monday-Friday) hospital admission and endoscopic retrograde cholangiography (ERC) groups. Primary outcome was length of stay (LOS); secondary outcomes included ERC performance, organ failure, and mortality. Groups were compared with Chi-square and t tests; predictors of LOS were assessed with linear regression. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 181 patients (mean age 63.1 years, 62.4 % male). Choledocholithiasis was the most common etiology of AC (29.4 %). Fifty-two patients (28.7 %) were admitted on a weekend and 129 (71.3 %) on a weekday. One hundred forty-one patients (78 %) underwent ERC, of which 120 (85 %) were on a weekday. There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics, LOS, proportion undergoing ERC, time to ERC, organ failure, or mortality between weekend and weekday admission groups. Similarly, there were no significant differences between weekend and weekday ERC groups. In multivariate analyses, international normalized ratio (p < 0.01) and intensive care unit triage (p < 0.01) were independent predictors of LOS, whereas weekend admission (p = 0.23) and weekend ERC (p = 0.74) were not. CONCLUSIONS: Weekend admission and weekend ERC do not negatively impact outcomes of patients hospitalized with acute cholangitis at a tertiary care center. Further studies, particularly in centers with less weekend resources or staffing, are indicated.

Urgent ERCP for acute cholangitis reduces mortality and hospital stay in elderly and very elderly patients.

BACKGROUND: Acute cholangitis in old people is a cause of mortality and prolonged hospital stay. We evaluated the effects of methods and timing of biliary drainage on the outcomes of acute cholangitis in elderly and very elderly patients. METHODS: We analyzed 331 patients who were older than 75 years and were diagnosed with acute calculous cholangitis. They were admitted to our hospital from 2009 to 2014. Patients' demographics, severity grading, methods and timing of biliary drainage, mortality, and hospital stay were retrospectively obtained from medical records. Clinical parameters and outcomes were compared between elderly (75-80 years, n=156) and very elderly (≥81 years, n=175) patients. We analyzed the effects of methods [none, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage, or failure] and timing (urgent or early) of biliary drainage on mortality and hospital stay in these patients. RESULTS: Acute cholangitis in older patients manifested as atypical symptoms characterized as infrequent Charcot's triad (4.2%) and comorbidity in one-third of the patients. Patients were graded as mild, moderate, and severe cholangitis in 104 (31.4%), 175 (52.9%), and 52 (15.7%), respectively. Urgent biliary drainage (≤24 hours) was performed for 80.5% (247/307) of patients. Very elderly patients tended to have more severe grades and were treated with sequential procedures of transient biliary drainage and stone removal at different sessions. Hospital stay was related to methods and timing of biliary drainage. Mortality was very low (1.5%) and not related to patient age but rather to the success or failure of biliary drainage and severity grading of the acute cholangitis. CONCLUSIONS: The methods and timing used for biliary drainage and severity of cholangitis are the major determinants of mortality and hospital stay in elderly and very elderly patients with acute cholangitis. Urgent successful ERCP is mandatory for favorable prognosis in these patients.

Internal biliary stenting during orthotopic liver transplantation: anastomotic complications, post-transplant biliary interventions, and survival.

BACKGROUND: Biliary complications are a leading source of surgical morbidity following orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). METHODS: We examined how prophylactic internal biliary stent placement during OLT affected post-transplant morbidity and mortality in a single-center retrospective cohort study of 513 recipients (2006-2012). Recipient and donor covariates were collected. Biliary complications included major and minor anastomotic leaks, strictures, or stenoses. Multivariate regression models were created to estimate how operative biliary stents affected outcomes. RESULTS: About 87.3% (n = 448) of recipients had a duct-to-duct biliary anastomosis, and 43.1% (n = 221) had biliary stents placed. The biliary complication rate was <15% at five yr, and 44.8% (n = 230) overall. Stenting was not protective from anastomotic biliary complications (p = 0.06). Stenting was associated with a 74% higher adjusted risk of needing multiple endoscopic retrograde cholangiographies (ERCs; odds ratio [OR] 1.74, p = 0.011), and trended toward a lower adjusted risk for repetitive percutaneous transhepatic cholangiography (PTCs; OR 0.56, p = 0.063). Stenting had no effect on the cumulative freedom from biliary complications (p = 0.94). Biliary complications were associated with mortality (HR 1.86, p = 0.014) and was unaffected by stenting (aHR = 0.72, p = 0.246). CONCLUSIONS: Biliary stenting during OLT does not deter biliary complications and is associated with higher risk of multiple invasive biliary interventions, particularly ERCs. Surgeons should evaluate the utility of biliary stents at OLT within this context.

Hospital volume status is related to technical failure and all-cause mortality following ERCP for benign disease.

BACKGROUND: Population-based data on hospital procedure volume and outcome of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) are limited. AIMS: To investigate procedural failure, early re-admission, and all-cause mortality following ERCP performed due to benign disease and to examine their relation to hospital procedure volume. METHODS: All patients with a first ERCP in 2005-2008 in Sweden were identified from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Registry. Data on indication, admission method, length of stay (LOS), and comorbid illness were extracted. Patients were linked to the Swedish Death and Cancer Registries. Factors associated with failed index ERCP, early re-admission, and all-cause mortality were identified by multiple logistic analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 12,695 first ERCPs for benign disease were analyzed. The 30-day re-admission rate was 13 % and all-cause 30-day mortality 2.2 %. Failed index ERCP was more common in low-volume than high-volume institutions (p = 0.007). In logistic regression analysis, low hospital procedure volume was an independent predictor of failed index ERCP (odds ratio (OR) 2.72 vs. high), but not 30-day re-admission (p > 0.05). LOS was longer in cases of procedural failure (p < 0.001). All-cause 30-day mortality was independently related to low hospital ERCP volume (OR 1.41 vs. high) and failed ERCP (OR 5.65 vs. successful). CONCLUSION: In this population-based cohort of first ERCPs due to benign disease, lower hospital ERCP volume was related to failed ERCP, which, in turn, was associated with longer LOS. Failed ERCP and lower hospital procedure volume were associated with poor survival, but not with early re-admission following index ERCP. These findings may have implications for service development.