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1.
BMC Infect Dis ; 24(1): 93, 2024 Jan 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38229063

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Recent pandemics have had far-reaching effects on the world's largest economies and amplified the need to estimate the full extent and range of socioeconomic impacts of infectious diseases outbreaks on multi-sectoral industries. This systematic review aims to evaluate the socioeconomic impacts of airborne and droplet-borne infectious diseases outbreaks on industries. METHODS: A structured, systematic review was performed according to the PRISMA guidelines. Databases of PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, IDEAS/REPEC, OSHLINE, HSELINE, and NIOSHTIC-2 were reviewed. Study quality appraisal was performed using the Table of Evidence Levels from Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Joanna Briggs Institute tools, Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool, and Center of Evidence Based Management case study critical appraisal checklist. Quantitative analysis was not attempted due to the heterogeneity of included studies. A qualitative synthesis of primary studies examining socioeconomic impact of airborne and droplet-borne infectious diseases outbreaks in any industry was performed and a framework based on empirical findings was conceptualized. RESULTS: A total of 55 studies conducted from 1984 to 2021 were included, reporting on 46,813,038 participants working in multiple industries across the globe. The quality of articles were good. On the whole, direct socioeconomic impacts of Coronavirus Disease 2019, influenza, influenza A (H1N1), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, tuberculosis and norovirus outbreaks include increased morbidity, mortality, and health costs. This had then led to indirect impacts including social impacts such as employment crises and reduced workforce size as well as economic impacts such as demand shock, supply chain disruptions, increased supply and production cost, service and business disruptions, and financial and Gross Domestic Product loss, attributable to productivity losses from illnesses as well as national policy responses to contain the diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence suggests that airborne and droplet-borne infectious diseases have inflicted severe socioeconomic costs on regional and global industries. Further research is needed to better understand their long-term socioeconomic impacts to support improved industry preparedness and response capacity for outbreaks. Public and private stakeholders at local, national, and international levels must join forces to ensure informed systems and sector-specific cost-sharing strategies for optimal global health and economic security.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , COVID-19 , Emprego , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1 , Influenza Humana/economia
2.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 1731, 2024 Jun 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38943132

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The implementation of digital disease surveillance systems at national levels in Africa have been challenged by many factors. These include user applicability, utility of IT features but also stable financial support. Funding closely intertwines with implementations in terms of geographical reach, disease focus, and sustainability. However, the practice of evidence sharing on geographical and disease coverage, costs, and funding sources for improving the implementation of these systems on the continent is unclear. OBJECTIVES: To analyse the key characteristics and availability of evidence for implementing digital infectious disease surveillance systems in Africa namely their disease focus, geographical reach, cost reporting, and external funding support. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature for the period 2003 to 2022 (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42022300849). We searched five databases (PubMed, MEDLINE over Ovid, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Google Scholar) and websites of WHO, Africa CDC, and public health institutes of African countries. We mapped the distribution of projects by country; identified reported implementation cost components; categorised the availability of data on cost components; and identified supporting funding institutions outside Africa. RESULTS: A total of 29 reports from 2,033 search results were eligible for analysis. We identified 27 projects implemented in 13 countries, across 32 sites. Of these, 24 (75%) were pilot projects with a median duration of 16 months, (IQR: 5-40). Of the 27 projects, 5 (19%) were implemented for HIV/AIDs and tuberculosis, 4 (15%) for malaria, 4 (15%) for all notifiable diseases, and 4 (15%) for One Health. We identified 17 cost components across the 29 reports. Of these, 11 (38%) reported quantified costs for start-up capital, 10 (34%) for health personnel compensation, 9 (31%) for training and capacity building, 8 (28%) for software maintenance, and 7(24%) for surveillance data transmission. Of 65 counts of external funding sources, 35 (54%) were governmental agencies, 15 (23%) foundations, and 7 (11%) UN agencies. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence on costing data for the digitalisation of surveillance and outbreak response in the published literature is sparse in quantity, limited in detail, and without a standardised reporting format. Most initial direct project costs are substantially donor dependent, short lived, and thus unsustainable.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , África/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Vigilância da População/métodos
3.
Lancet ; 397(10272): 398-408, 2021 01 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33516338

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. METHODS: 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort. FINDINGS: We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort. INTERPRETATION: Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Doenças Transmissíveis/mortalidade , Doenças Transmissíveis/virologia , Modelos Teóricos , Mortalidade/tendências , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Vacinação , Pré-Escolar , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/estatística & dados numéricos , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Países em Desenvolvimento , Feminino , Saúde Global , Humanos , Programas de Imunização , Masculino , Vacinação/economia , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos
4.
PLoS Biol ; 16(4): e2004879, 2018 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29621228

RESUMO

Human protection policies require favorable risk-benefit judgments prior to launch of clinical trials. For phase I and II trials, evidence for such judgment often stems from preclinical efficacy studies (PCESs). We undertook a systematic investigation of application materials (investigator brochures [IBs]) presented for ethics review for phase I and II trials to assess the content and properties of PCESs contained in them. Using a sample of 109 IBs most recently approved at 3 institutional review boards based at German Medical Faculties between the years 2010-2016, we identified 708 unique PCESs. We then rated all identified PCESs for their reporting on study elements that help to address validity threats, whether they referenced published reports, and the direction of their results. Altogether, the 109 IBs reported on 708 PCESs. Less than 5% of all PCESs described elements essential for reducing validity threats such as randomization, sample size calculation, and blinded outcome assessment. For most PCESs (89%), no reference to a published report was provided. Only 6% of all PCESs reported an outcome demonstrating no effect. For the majority of IBs (82%), all PCESs were described as reporting positive findings. Our results show that most IBs for phase I/II studies did not allow evaluators to systematically appraise the strength of the supporting preclinical findings. The very rare reporting of PCESs that demonstrated no effect raises concerns about potential design or reporting biases. Poor PCES design and reporting thwart risk-benefit evaluation during ethical review of phase I/II studies.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Avaliação Pré-Clínica de Medicamentos/economia , Drogas em Investigação/economia , Gastroenteropatias/economia , Doenças do Sistema Imunitário/economia , Neoplasias/economia , Doenças Respiratórias/economia , Animais , Viés , Ensaios Clínicos Fase I como Assunto , Ensaios Clínicos Fase II como Assunto , Doenças Transmissíveis/tratamento farmacológico , Drogas em Investigação/farmacologia , Europa (Continente) , Gastroenteropatias/tratamento farmacológico , Humanos , Doenças do Sistema Imunitário/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias/tratamento farmacológico , Folhetos , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Doenças Respiratórias/tratamento farmacológico , Medição de Risco/estatística & dados numéricos
5.
J Infect Dis ; 221(5): 690-696, 2020 02 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30887033

RESUMO

While health care providers have largely turned a blind eye, the cost of health care in the US has been skyrocketing, in part as a result of rising drug prices. Patent protections and market exclusivity, while serving to incentivize targeted new drug development, have exacerbated inequitable outcomes and reduced access, sometimes fueling national epidemics. Branded drug manufacturers face few barriers to exorbitant pricing of drugs with exclusivity-as in the cases of Sovaldi, Zyvox, and Truvada. Furthermore, albendazole, pyrimethamine, and penicillin demonstrate that generic medications without patent exclusivity are not guaranteed to have durably low costs, especially where manufacturer competition is lacking. There is a way forward: through education and awareness, cost-conscious guideline development, government regulation, and market-level incentives, health care providers can collaborate to contain drug prices, curbing expenditures overall while expanding health care access to patients.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/tratamento farmacológico , Custos de Medicamentos , Indústria Farmacêutica/economia , Medicamentos Genéricos/economia , Albendazol/economia , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Custos e Análise de Custo , Combinação Emtricitabina e Fumarato de Tenofovir Desoproxila/economia , Regulamentação Governamental , Gastos em Saúde , Humanos , Linezolida/economia , Penicilinas/economia , Pirimetamina/economia , Sofosbuvir/economia
6.
Pak J Pharm Sci ; 34(1): 185-196, 2021 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34248019

RESUMO

The role of nanobiotechnology in the treatment of diseases is limitless. In this review we tried to focus main aspects of nanotechnology in drug carrier systems for treatment and diagnosis of various diseases such as cancer, pulmonary diseases, infectious diseases, vaccine development, diabetes mellitus and the role of nanotechnology on our economy and its positive social impacts on our community. We discussed here about the different "Biotechnano Strategies" to develop new avenues and ultimately improve the treatment of multiple diseases.


Assuntos
Biotecnologia/tendências , Portadores de Fármacos/administração & dosagem , Nanotecnologia/tendências , Desenvolvimento de Vacinas/tendências , Animais , Biotecnologia/economia , Doenças Transmissíveis/tratamento farmacológico , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Portadores de Fármacos/economia , Humanos , Nanotecnologia/economia , Neoplasias/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias/economia , Desenvolvimento de Vacinas/economia
7.
Curr Top Microbiol Immunol ; 424: 75-83, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31650236

RESUMO

Infectious disease emergence into humans from animals or the environment occurs primarily due to genetic changes in the microbe through mutation or re-assortment making it either more transmissible or virulent or through a change in the disease "ecosystem". Research into infectious disease emergence can be grouped into different strategic approaches. One strategic approach is to study a specific or model disease system to understand the ecology of an infectious disease and how is transmitted and propagated through the environment and different hosts and then extrapolate that disease system knowledge to related pathogens. The other strategic approach follows the genomics and phylogenetics-tracking how pathogens are evolving and changing at the amino acid level. Here we argue that for understanding complex zoonotic diseases and for the purposes of preventing emergence and re-emergence into humans, that the Return on Investment be considered for the best research strategy.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Ecossistema , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Filogenia , Vírus/classificação , Vírus/patogenicidade , Animais , Doenças Transmissíveis/classificação , Doenças Transmissíveis/virologia , Humanos , Investimentos em Saúde , Vírus/genética , Zoonoses/virologia
9.
BMC Infect Dis ; 19(1): 662, 2019 Jul 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31345168

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to determine the prevalence of infectious diseases and risk factors for one-year mortality in elderly emergency department (ED) patients. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of patients aged 65 and over who visited the ED of one urban teaching hospital in Bangkok, Thailand and who were diagnosed with infectious diseases between 1 January 2016 and 30 June 2016. RESULTS: There were 463 elderly patients who visited ED with infectious diseases, accounting for 14.5% (463/3,196) of all elderly patients' visits. The most common diseases diagnosed by emergency physicians (EPs) were pneumonia [151 (32.6%) patients] followed by pyelonephritis [107 (23.1%) patients] and intestinal infection [53 (11.4%) patients]. Moreover, 286 (61.8%) patients were admitted during the study period. The in-hospital mortality rate was 22.7%. 181 (39.1%) patients died within 1 year. Our multivariate analysis showed that age 85 years and older [odds ratio (OR) = 1.89; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36-2.63], Charlson Co-morbidity Index score ≥ 5 (OR = 3.51; 95% CI2.14-5.77), lactate ≥4 mmol/l (OR = 2.66;95% CI 1.32-5.38), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score ≥ 2 (OR = 5.46; 95% CI 2.94-10.12), and platelet count < 100,000 cells/mm3 (OR = 3.19; 95% CI 1.15-8.83) were associated with 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In one middle-income country, infectious diseases account for 14.5% of elderly ED patients. Almost two-thirds of patients presenting to ED with infection are admitted to hospital. One-third of elderly ED patients with infection died within 1 year. Age ≥ 85 years, Charlson Co-morbidity Index score ≥ 5, lactate ≥4 mmol/l, qSOFA score ≥ 2, and platelet count < 100,000 cells/mm3 predicted 1-year mortality rate.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/mortalidade , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Feminino , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Hospitalização , Humanos , Renda , Masculino , Razão de Chances , Pacientes/estatística & dados numéricos , Prevalência , Curva ROC , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Tailândia/epidemiologia
10.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 113(51): 14582-14588, 2016 12 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27965394

RESUMO

The dynamics, control, and evolution of communicable and vector-borne diseases are intimately connected to the joint dynamics of epidemiological, behavioral, and mobility processes that operate across multiple spatial, temporal, and organizational scales. The identification of a theoretical explanatory framework that accounts for the pattern regularity exhibited by a large number of host-parasite systems, including those sustained by host-vector epidemiological dynamics, is but one of the challenges facing the coevolving fields of computational, evolutionary, and theoretical epidemiology. Host-parasite epidemiological patterns, including epidemic outbreaks and endemic recurrent dynamics, are characteristic to well-identified regions of the world; the result of processes and constraints such as strain competition, host and vector mobility, and population structure operating over multiple scales in response to recurrent disturbances (like El Niño) and climatological and environmental perturbations over thousands of years. It is therefore important to identify and quantify the processes responsible for observed epidemiological macroscopic patterns: the result of individual interactions in changing social and ecological landscapes. In this perspective, we touch on some of the issues calling for the identification of an encompassing theoretical explanatory framework by identifying some of the limitations of existing theory, in the context of particular epidemiological systems. Fostering the reenergizing of research that aims at disentangling the role of epidemiological and socioeconomic forces on disease dynamics, better understood as complex adaptive systems, is a key aim of this perspective.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Animais , Clima , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Vetores de Doenças , Ecologia , Meio Ambiente , Epidemias , Interações Hospedeiro-Parasita , Humanos , Modelos Organizacionais , Modelos Estatísticos , Tempo , Zika virus , Infecção por Zika virus/prevenção & controle
11.
Pediatr Int ; 61(12): 1257-1260, 2019 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31630471

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Our earlier report reported that the (Nursery) School Absenteeism Surveillance System ((N)SASSy) can decrease numbers of patients. This study evaluates (N)SASSy's cost-effectiveness. METHODS: A social perspective is taken for economic evaluation. For simplicity, 8,000 yen is assumed for direct medical costs. We assume the home health care duration to be 6 days, with 30 000 yen as the indirect opportunity cost of family nursing. Benefit-cost ratios are used as indicators of cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: By multiplying the disease burden per patient by the reduced number of patients, the (N)SASSy effect was estimated as 206.9 billion yen, with 95% confidence interval of [67.3,346.6] billion yen. The total cost attributable to (N)SASSy throughout Japan is expected to be 2.63 billion yen. The benefit-cost ratio is expected to be approximately 60. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated benefit-cost ratio is much higher than that for the routine immunization of children.


Assuntos
Absenteísmo , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Vigilância da População/métodos , Escolas Maternais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Análise Custo-Benefício , Humanos , Japão/epidemiologia
12.
Euro Surveill ; 24(22)2019 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31164188

RESUMO

Re-emerging diseases outbreaks are being reported in Venezuela since 2012/13, following ongoing political and economic crisis. Healthcare system collapse has led to an increasing incidence and mortality from communicable diseases. Increasing movement of people between Venezuela and the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) creates a need for increased awareness of the infectious disease risks and requirements for appropriate investigation and treatment of individuals arriving from Venezuela; overall risk for EU/EEA citizens is low.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Emigrantes e Imigrantes , União Europeia , Recursos em Saúde/tendências , Migrantes , Doenças Transmissíveis/diagnóstico , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Surtos de Doenças/economia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , União Europeia/economia , Recursos em Saúde/economia , Humanos , Vigilância da População/métodos , Venezuela/epidemiologia , Organização Mundial da Saúde/economia
13.
Internist (Berl) ; 60(6): 661-666, 2019 Jun.
Artigo em Alemão | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31020354

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Health care workers (HCW) are at risk of occupational exposure to infectious diseases and can also transmit diseases to their patients. The related occupational disease (BK: "Berufskrankheit") is BK 3101. OBJECTIVE: Number of claims and confirmed claims of occupational infections, risk of infection depending on occupation and field of activity, kind of infectious diseases, limits and opportunities of prevention. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Selective literature search, particularly on data of accident insurance institutions regarding occupational infections among HCW. RESULTS: In 2017, BK 3101 was the fifth most common cause of confirmed occupational disease. The number of occupational infections in HCW has decreased over the last 22 years in Germany. The decrease was primarily due to lower rates of blood-borne infections. CONCLUSION: Occupational infections continue to be a risk for HCW. Preventive measures reduce the risk of infection among HCW as well as the nosocomial transmission among patients.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Pessoal de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa do Paciente para o Profissional/prevenção & controle , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa do Profissional para o Paciente/prevenção & controle , Revisão da Utilização de Seguros/estatística & dados numéricos , Doenças Profissionais , Exposição Ocupacional/prevenção & controle , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Humanos , Doenças Profissionais/economia , Doenças Profissionais/epidemiologia
14.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 18(1): 82, 2018 08 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30068316

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Health economic evaluations of interventions in infectious disease are commonly based on the predictions of ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems or Markov models (MMs). Standard MMs are static, whereas ODE systems are usually dynamic and account for herd immunity which is crucial to prevent overestimation of infection prevalence. Complex ODE systems including distributions on model parameters are computationally intensive. Thus, mainly ODE-based models including fixed parameter values are presented in the literature. These do not account for parameter uncertainty. As a consequence, probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA), a crucial component of health economic evaluations, cannot be conducted straightforwardly. METHODS: We present a dynamic MM under a Bayesian framework. We extend a static MM by incorporating the force of infection into the state allocation algorithm. The corresponding output is based on dynamic changes in prevalence and thus accounts for herd immunity. In contrast to deterministic ODE-based models, PSA can be conducted straightforwardly. We introduce a case study of a fictional sexually transmitted infection and compare our dynamic Bayesian MM to a deterministic and a Bayesian ODE system. The models are calibrated to simulated time series data. RESULTS: By means of the case study, we show that our methodology produces outcome which is comparable to the "gold standard" of the Bayesian ODE system. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to ODE systems in the literature, the dynamic MM includes distributions on all model parameters at manageable computational effort (including calibration). The run time of the Bayesian ODE system is 15 times longer.


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Teorema de Bayes , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Cadeias de Markov , Modelos Econômicos , Doenças Transmissíveis/diagnóstico , Doenças Transmissíveis/terapia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis/diagnóstico , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis/economia , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis/terapia
15.
Chaos ; 28(12): 123105, 2018 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30599528

RESUMO

Resources are limited in epidemic containment; how to optimally allocate the limited resources in suppressing the epidemic spreading has been a challenging problem. To find an effective resource allocation strategy, we take the infectiousness of each infected node into consideration. By studying the interplay between the resource allocation and epidemic spreading, we find that the spreading dynamics of epidemic is affected by the preferential resource allocation. There are double phase transitions of the fraction of infected nodes, which are different from the classical epidemic model. More importantly, we find that the preferential resource allocation has double-edged sword effects on the disease spreading. When there is a small transmission rate, the infected fraction at the steady state decreases with the increment of degree of resource allocation preference, which indicates that resources of the healthy nodes should be allocated preferentially to the high infectious nodes to constrain the disease spreading. Moreover, when there is a large transmission rate, the fraction of infected nodes at the steady state increases with the increment of the degree of the preference, but the resource allocation is determined by the stage of epidemic spreading. Namely, in the early stage of the disease spreading, resources should be allocated preferentially to the high infectious nodes similar to the case of a small transmission rate. While after the early stage, resources should be allocated to the low infectious nodes. Based on the findings, we propose a simple resource allocation strategy that can adaptively change with the current fraction of infected nodes and the disease can be suppressed to the most extent under the proposed strategy.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Doenças Transmissíveis/transmissão , Simulação por Computador , Saúde Global , Humanos , Modelos Biológicos
16.
Rev Med Chil ; 146(9): 968-977, 2018 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30725016

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The long-term effect of an antimicrobial stewardship program (ASP) and its integrated impact with competitive biddings have been seldom reported. AIM: To evaluate the long-term effect of an ASP on antimicrobial consumption, expenditure, antimicrobial resistance and hospital mortality. To estimate the contribution of competitive biddings on cost-savings. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A comparison of periods prior (2005-2008) and posterior to ASP initiation (2009 and 2015) was done. An estimation of cost savings attributable to ASP and to competitive biddings was also performed. RESULTS: Basal median antimicrobial consumption decreased from 221.3 to 170 daily defined doses/100 beds after the start of the ASP. At the last year, global antimicrobial consumption declined by 28%. Median antimicrobial expenditure per bed (initially US$ 13) declined to US$ 10 at the first year (-28%) and to US$ 6 the last year (-57%). As the reduction in consumption was lower than the reduction in expenditure during the last year, we assumed that only 48.4% of savings were attributable to the ASP. According to antimicrobial charges per bed from prior and after ASP implementation, we estimated global savings of US$ 393072 and US$ 190000 directly attributable to the ASP, difference explained by parallel competitive biddings. Drug resistance among nosocomial bacterial isolates did not show significant changes. Global and infectious disease-associated mortality per 1000 discharges significantly decreased during the study period (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The ASP had a favorable impact on antimicrobial consumption, savings and mortality rates but did not have effect on antimicrobial resistance in selected bacterial strains.


Assuntos
Antibacterianos/administração & dosagem , Antibacterianos/economia , Gestão de Antimicrobianos/economia , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Proposta de Concorrência/economia , Antibacterianos/classificação , Gestão de Antimicrobianos/estatística & dados numéricos , Chile/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/tratamento farmacológico , Doenças Transmissíveis/mortalidade , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Hospitais Gerais , Humanos
17.
Bull World Health Organ ; 95(9): 629-638, 2017 Sep 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28867843

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. METHODS: We used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In comparison with no vaccination, we modelled the costs - expressed in 2010 United States dollars (US$) - of averted treatment, transportation costs, productivity losses of caregivers and productivity losses due to disability and death. We used the value-of-a-life-year method to estimate the broader economic and social value of living longer, in better health, as a result of immunization. FINDINGS: We estimated that, in the 73 countries, vaccinations given between 2001 and 2020 will avert over 20 million deaths and save US$ 350 billion in cost of illness. The deaths and disability prevented by vaccinations given during the two decades will result in estimated lifelong productivity gains totalling US$ 330 billion and US$ 9 billion, respectively. Over the lifetimes of the vaccinated cohorts, the same vaccinations will save an estimated US$ 5 billion in treatment costs. The broader economic and social value of these vaccinations is estimated at US$ 820 billion. CONCLUSION: By preventing significant costs and potentially increasing economic productivity among some of the world's poorest countries, the impact of immunization goes well beyond health.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Programas de Imunização/economia , Vacinação/economia , Doenças Transmissíveis/microbiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/mortalidade , Análise Custo-Benefício , Países em Desenvolvimento , Saúde Global , Humanos , Método de Monte Carlo , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Vacinas/economia
18.
PLoS Biol ; 12(4): e1001827, 2014 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24690902

RESUMO

Understanding why some human populations remain persistently poor remains a significant challenge for both the social and natural sciences. The extremely poor are generally reliant on their immediate natural resource base for subsistence and suffer high rates of mortality due to parasitic and infectious diseases. Economists have developed a range of models to explain persistent poverty, often characterized as poverty traps, but these rarely account for complex biophysical processes. In this Essay, we argue that by coupling insights from ecology and economics, we can begin to model and understand the complex dynamics that underlie the generation and maintenance of poverty traps, which can then be used to inform analyses and possible intervention policies. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we present a simple coupled model of infectious diseases and economic growth, where poverty traps emerge from nonlinear relationships determined by the number of pathogens in the system. These nonlinearities are comparable to those often incorporated into poverty trap models in the economics literature, but, importantly, here the mechanism is anchored in core ecological principles. Coupled models of this sort could be usefully developed in many economically important biophysical systems--such as agriculture, fisheries, nutrition, and land use change--to serve as foundations for deeper explorations of how fundamental ecological processes influence structural poverty and economic development.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico , Dinâmica Populacional , Pobreza/economia , Meio Social , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Fatores Socioeconômicos
19.
J Theor Biol ; 414: 103-119, 2017 02 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27890574

RESUMO

Disease outbreaks induce behavioural changes in healthy individuals to avoid contracting infection. We first propose a compartmental model which accounts for the effect of individual's behavioural response due to information of the disease prevalence. It is assumed that the information is growing as a function of infective population density that saturates at higher density of infective population and depends on active educational and social programmes. Model analysis has been performed and the global stability of equilibrium points is established. Further, choosing the treatment (a pharmaceutical intervention) and the effect of information (a non-pharmaceutical intervention) as controls, an optimal control problem is formulated to minimize the cost and disease fatality. In the cost functional, the nonlinear effect of controls is accounted. Analytical characterization of optimal control paths is done with the help of Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. Numerical findings suggest that if only control via information is used, it is effective and economical for early phase of disease spread whereas treatment works well for long term control except for initial phase. Furthermore, we observe that the effect of information induced behavioural response plays a crucial role in the absence of pharmaceutical control. Moreover, comprehensive use of both the control interventions is more effective than any single applied control policy and it reduces the number of infective individuals and minimizes the economic cost generated from disease burden and applied controls. Thus, the combined effect of both the control policies is found more economical during the entire epidemic period whereas the implementation of a single policy is not found economically viable.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/terapia , Disseminação de Informação , Modelos Teóricos , Humanos , Prevalência
20.
Pediatr Blood Cancer ; 64(2): 324-329, 2017 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27555523

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The impact of ambulatory bloodstream infections (Amb-BSIs) in pediatric oncology and stem cell transplant (PO/SCT) patients is poorly understood, although a large portion of their treatment increasingly occurs in this setting. This study aimed to understand the economic impact and length of stay (LOS) associated with these infections. PROCEDURE: Charges and LOS were retrospectively collected and analyzed for Amb-BSI events leading to a hospital admission between 2012 and 2013 in a tertiary, university-affiliated hospital. Events were grouped as BSI-MIXED when hospitalizations with care unrelated to the infection-extended LOS by more than 24 hr or as BSI-PURE for all others. Billing codes were used to group charges and main drivers were analyzed. RESULTS: Seventy-four BSI events were identified in 61 patients. Sixty-nine percent met definition for central line-associated BSI (CLABSI). Median total charge and LOS for an Amb-BSI were $40,852 (interquartile range [IQR] $44,091) and 7 days (IQR 6), respectively. Median charges for BSI-PURE group (N = 62) were $36,611 (IQR $34,785) and $89,935 (IQR $153,263) in the BSI-MIXED (N = 12) group. Median LOS was 6 (IQR 5) days in the BSI-PURE group and 15 (IQR 24) in the BSI-MIXED. Room, pharmacy, and procedure charges accounted for more than 70% of total charges in all groups. CONCLUSIONS: Amb-BSIs in PO/SCT patients result in significant healthcare charges and unplanned extended hospital admissions. This analysis suggests that efforts aiming at reducing rates of infections could result in substantial system savings, validating the need for increased efforts to prevent Amb-BSIs.


Assuntos
Bacteriemia/economia , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Infecção Hospitalar/economia , Preços Hospitalares/tendências , Tempo de Internação/economia , Neoplasias/economia , Transplante de Células-Tronco/economia , Assistência Ambulatorial , Bacteriemia/etiologia , Bactérias/isolamento & purificação , Pré-Escolar , Doenças Transmissíveis/complicações , Doenças Transmissíveis/microbiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/terapia , Infecção Hospitalar/etiologia , Feminino , Seguimentos , Hospitais Universitários , Humanos , Tempo de Internação/tendências , Masculino , Neoplasias/sangue , Neoplasias/microbiologia , Neoplasias/terapia , Prognóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Transplante de Células-Tronco/efeitos adversos
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