Quantifying the dynamics of failure across science, startups and security.

Human achievements are often preceded by repeated attempts that fail, but little is known about the mechanisms that govern the dynamics of failure. Here, building on previous research relating to innovation1-7, human dynamics8-11 and learning12-17, we develop a simple one-parameter model that mimics how successful future attempts build on past efforts. Solving this model analytically suggests that a phase transition separates the dynamics of failure into regions of progression or stagnation and predicts that, near the critical threshold, agents who share similar characteristics and learning strategies may experience fundamentally different outcomes following failures. Above the critical point, agents exploit incremental refinements to systematically advance towards success, whereas below it, they explore disjoint opportunities without a pattern of improvement. The model makes several empirically testable predictions, demonstrating that those who eventually succeed and those who do not may initially appear similar, but can be characterized by fundamentally distinct failure dynamics in terms of the efficiency and quality associated with each subsequent attempt. We collected large-scale data from three disparate domains and traced repeated attempts by investigators to obtain National Institutes of Health (NIH) grants to fund their research, innovators to successfully exit their startup ventures, and terrorist organizations to claim casualties in violent attacks. We find broadly consistent empirical support across all three domains, which systematically verifies each prediction of our model. Together, our findings unveil detectable yet previously unknown early signals that enable us to identify failure dynamics that will lead to ultimate success or failure. Given the ubiquitous nature of failure and the paucity of quantitative approaches to understand it, these results represent an initial step towards the deeper understanding of the complex dynamics underlying failure.

Physical and mental health problems of self-employed small business owners in South Korea.

BACKGROUND: Self-employed business owners in Korea make up one-quarter of the working population, and half of those who are self-employed are in micro and small businesses. Compared to the significant research interest in business management and economics, to date, there has been little interest in the health of small business owners. We investigated the health status of self-employed small business owners compared to standard workers. METHODS: The third Korean Working Conditions Survey, which included a total of 32 630 adults aged 20 to 59 years, was analyzed. A small business was defined as an enterprise with between 0 and 4 workers. Standard employment included full-time employment with a permanent or 1-year contract. Health outcomes included eight types of physical health and mental health problems assessed using the WHO-5 Wellbeing Index. RESULTS: Small business groups were found to have an increased prevalence of depression after controlling for all potential covariates (odds ratio [OR] = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-1.47). In addition, the prevalence of work-related physical health problems was significantly higher among self-employed small business owners in a full adjusted model: backache (OR = 1.16; 95% CI, 1.06-1.26), muscular pains in upper limbs (OR = 1.19; 95% CI, 1.12-1.27), and muscular pains in lower limbs (OR = 1.14; 95% CI, 1.07-1.22). CONCLUSION: We found a positive association between small business entrepreneurs and increased prevalence of mental and physical illness in adults in the Republic of Korea.

Person-city personality fit and entrepreneurial success: An explorative study in China.

While the study of personality differences is a traditional psychological approach in entrepreneurship research, economic research directs attention towards the entrepreneurial ecosystems in which entrepreneurial activity are embedded. We combine both approaches and quantify the interplay between the individual personality make-up of entrepreneurs and the local personality composition of ecosystems, with a special focus on person-city personality fit. Specifically, we analyse personality data from N = 26,405 Chinese residents across 42 major Chinese cities, including N = 1091 Chinese entrepreneurs. Multi-level polynomial regression and response surface plots revealed that: (a) individual-level conscientiousness had a positive effect and individual-level agreeableness and neuroticism had a negative effect on entrepreneurial success, (b) city-level conscientiousness had a positive, and city-level neuroticism had a negative effect on entrepreneurial success, and (c) additional person-city personality fit effects existed for agreeableness, conscientiousness and neuroticism. For example, entrepreneurs who are high in agreeableness and conduct their business in a city with a low agreeableness level show the lowest entrepreneurial success. In contrast, entrepreneurs who are low in agreeableness and conduct their business in a city with a high agreeableness level show relatively high entrepreneurial success. Implications for research and practice are discussed.

Risky business: linking Toxoplasma gondii infection and entrepreneurship behaviours across individuals and countries.

Disciplines such as business and economics often rely on the assumption of rationality when explaining complex human behaviours. However, growing evidence suggests that behaviour may concurrently be influenced by infectious microorganisms. The protozoan Toxoplasma gondii infects an estimated 2 billion people worldwide and has been linked to behavioural alterations in humans and other vertebrates. Here we integrate primary data from college students and business professionals with national-level information on cultural attitudes towards business to test the hypothesis that T. gondii infection influences individual- as well as societal-scale entrepreneurship activities. Using a saliva-based assay, we found that students (n = 1495) who tested IgG positive for T. gondii exposure were 1.4× more likely to major in business and 1.7× more likely to have an emphasis in 'management and entrepreneurship' over other business-related emphases. Among professionals attending entrepreneurship events, T. gondii-positive individuals were 1.8× more likely to have started their own business compared with other attendees (n = 197). Finally, after synthesizing and combining country-level databases on T. gondii infection from the past 25 years with the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor of entrepreneurial activity, we found that infection prevalence was a consistent, positive predictor of entrepreneurial activity and intentions at the national scale, regardless of whether previously identified economic covariates were included. Nations with higher infection also had a lower fraction of respondents citing 'fear of failure' in inhibiting new business ventures. While correlational, these results highlight the linkage between parasitic infection and complex human behaviours, including those relevant to business, entrepreneurship and economic productivity.

A comparative study on entrepreneurial attitudes modeled with logistic regression and Bayes nets.

Entrepreneurship research is receiving increasing attention in our context, as entrepreneurs are key social agents involved in economic development. We compare the success of the dichotomic logistic regression model and the Bayes simple classifier to predict entrepreneurship, after manipulating the percentage of missing data and the level of categorization in predictors. A sample of undergraduate university students (N = 1230) completed five scales (motivation, attitude towards business creation, obstacles, deficiencies, and training needs) and we found that each of them predicted different aspects of the tendency to business creation. Additionally, our results show that the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is affected by the rate of missing data in both techniques, but logistic regression seems to be more vulnerable when faced with missing data, whereas Bayes nets underperform slightly when categorization has been manipulated. Our study sheds light on the potential entrepreneur profile and we propose to use Bayesian networks as an additional alternative to overcome the weaknesses of logistic regression when missing data are present in applied research.

Entrepreneurial tendency across the adult lifespan.

This study examines whether age associates with entrepreneurship tendencies across the lifespan, after taking into account aspects of personality that affect entrepreneurship. Participants (N = 963) aged 18-81, including 200 actual entrepreneurs, completed questionnaires about entrepreneurship tendency, personality traits, and attachment orientations. Results show that age is associated with a reduced tendency to engage in entrepreneurial activity. However, this decline is quite limited, it weakens with age, and is absent after age 50. In addition, the negative association of age with entrepreneurial tendency is smaller in participants with above-median entrepreneurship tendency scores relative to those with below-median scores, and it disappears in actual entrepreneurs. Furthermore, most of the traits that have been previously associated with entrepreneurial tendencies, especially Openness to Experience and Extraversion, remain unchanged with age, accounting for the stability of entrepreneurial tendency over time. The results have implications for policy makers who wish to encourage older adults to engage in entrepreneurial activity.

Swedish entrepreneurs' use of occupational health services.

Small-scale enterprises are less often covered by occupational health services and have insufficient awareness about health and risks in the work environment. This study investigated how Swedish entrepreneurs in small-scale enterprises use occupational health services. The study used a questionnaire sent in two waves, 5 years apart. At baseline, 496 entrepreneurs responded, and 251 participated 5 years later. The questionnaire included items about affiliation with and use of occupational health services, physical and psychosocial work environments, work environment management, sources of work environment information, and membership in professional networks. Only 3% of entrepreneurs without employees and 19% of entrepreneurs with employees were affiliated with an occupational health service. Entrepreneurs affiliated with occupational health services were more active in work environment management and gathering information about the work environment. The occupational health services most used were health examinations, health care, and ergonomic risk assessments. Affiliation with occupational health services was 6% at both measurements, 4% at baseline, and 10% 5 years later.

Evasive entrepreneurship: Circumventing and exploiting institutional impediments for new profit opportunity in an emerging market.

Evasive entrepreneurship (circumvention and exploitation of institutions by entrepreneurs) is a prevalent practice in many developing economies. Extant literature on the topic falls short of providing adequate theories to explain its triggers, mechanisms, and consequences. Leveraging extensive survey data from the World Bank, we used structural equation modeling to examine the relationship between evasive entrepreneurial behavior-tax evasion and bribery-and the relative payoff of such practices. Of the 2599 Nigerian entrepreneurs in our sample, the majority admitted to engaging in evasive entrepreneurship. The data suggest that institutional factors thought to constrain entrepreneurship in emerging markets are counter-intuitively perceived by founders as opportunities to earn large rents and improve firm performance. Our results emphasize the urgent need to eliminate institutional constraints that paradoxically enable the growth of evasive entrepreneurship in emerging economies. Our results also suggest that prevailing local conventions involving evasive behavior may motivate nascent entrepreneurs to imitate bribery and tax evasion, normalizing malfeasance as 'best practice.'

How do gender disparities in entrepreneurial aspirations emerge in Pakistan? An approach to mediation and multi-group analysis.

This cross-sectional study sought to identify gender differences in individual behavioral attitudes, personal traits, and entrepreneurial education based on planned behavior theory. The Smart partial least squares (PLS) structural equation model and PLS path modeling were used. A survey design was used to collect data from 309 samples using quantitative measures. The model was tested for validity and reliability and showed variance (full, R2 = 58.9% and split, R2 = 62.7% and R2 = 52.7%) in male and female model predictive power, respectively. Subjective norms (SN), personality traits (PT), and entrepreneurial education (EE) significantly impacted the male sample's intention. Females' intentions toward entrepreneurship was less affected by attitude toward behavior (ATB), subjective norms (SN), perceived behavioral control (PBC), and entrepreneurship education (EE). Further, attitudes, social norms, and behavioral controls as mediation variables indicate a significant and positive role of male and female intentions. These findings imply that behavioral beliefs (ATB, PBC, and SN) influence entrepreneurial intention-action translation. The results significantly supported the designed hypotheses and shed light on individual personality traits (PT) and entrepreneurship education (EE) underpinning enterprise intention. The study determined that EE and PT are the strongest predictors of intention, thus highlighting the role of these motives in the entrepreneurial process. This study contributes to the growing body of knowledge on youth entrepreneurs, expands our understanding of entrepreneurship as a practical career choice, and offers a novel account differentiating male and female PT. The drive to evaluate the effects of entrepreneurial intention among budding disparities in Pakistan requires a more profound knowledge of the aspects that endorse entrepreneurship as a choice of profession and enhances youth incentive abilities to engage in entrepreneurial activities based on exploitation.