Time trend analysis and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on mammography and Papanicolaou test coverage in Brazilian state capitals.

BACKGROUND: Breast and cervical cancer are major public health issues globally. The reduction in incidence and mortality rates of these cancers is linked to effective prevention, early detection, and appropriate treatment measures. This study aims to analyze the temporal trends in the prevalence of mammography and Papanicolaou test coverage among women living in Brazilian state capitals between 2007 and 2023, and to compare the coverage of these tests before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. METHODS: A time series study was conducted using data from the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey from 2007 to 2023. The variables analyzed included mammography and Papanicolaou test coverage according to education level, age group, race/skin color, regions, and Brazilian capitals. The Prais-Winsten regression model was used to analyze the time series, and Student's t-test was employed to compare the prevalence rates between 2019 and 2023. RESULTS: Between 2007 and 2023, mammography coverage showed a stationary trend (71.1% in 2007 and 73.1% in 2023; p-value = 0.75) with a declining trend observed among women with 12 years or more of education (APC= -0.52% 95%CI -1.01%; -0.02%). Papanicolaou test coverage for all women aged between 25 and 64 exhibited a downward trend from 82% in 2007 to 76.8% in 2023 (APC= -0.45% 95%CI -0.76%; -0.13%). This decline was also noticed among those with 9 years or more of education; in the 25 to 44 age group; among women with white and mixed race; and in the Northeast, Central-West, Southeast, and South regions. When comparing coverage before and during Covid-19 pandemic, a reduction was noted for both tests. CONCLUSIONS: Over the years, there has been stability in mammography coverage and a decline in Papanicolaou test. The COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted the number of these tests carried out among women, highlighting the importance of actions aimed at increasing coverage, especially among the most vulnerable groups.

[New recommendations on mammography screening for women over 70 years]. / Le nuove raccomandazioni sullo screening mammografico per le donne con più di 70 anni.

The new recommendations of the European Council (December 2022) indicate to the Member States to implement mammography screening programs for women aged 45 to 74 and make explicit reference to the European guidelines produced by the ECIBC (European Commission Initiative on Breast Cancer) for operational indications. For women aged 70-74, the ECIBC suggests a three-year interval, rather than two years, and the process of adaptation and adoption of the guidelines in Italy has taken this recommendation as it is. Previous indications for Italian screening programs proposed a two-year interval for all women over 50 years of age. The intervention analyzes the rationale and interpretation of the evidence that led to the formulation of the different recommendations. It discusses whether the new recommendations fit into the perspective of risk-stratified screening that is under evaluation by several studies. it analyzes some of the critical issues of the methodology for developing recommendations in defining the characteristics of complex interventions, in particular the difficulties that the formulation of dichotomous questions finds in answering questions such as what is the best age to stop screening and what is the best interval at any age, which require an analysis of a continuous variable as age or interval duration. Finally, the opportunities and limitations in producing evidence regarding the best interval to adopt in mammography screening are discussed.

Trends in US Ambulatory Care Patterns During the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2019-2021.

Importance: Following reductions in US ambulatory care early in the pandemic, it remains unclear whether care consistently returned to expected rates across insurance types and services. Objective: To assess whether patients with Medicaid or Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility had significantly lower than expected return to use of ambulatory care rates than patients with commercial, Medicare Advantage, or Medicare fee-for-service insurance. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this retrospective cohort study examining ambulatory care service patterns from January 1, 2019, through February 28, 2021, claims data from multiple US payers were combined using the Milliman MedInsight research database. Using a difference-in-differences design, the extent to which utilization during the pandemic differed from expected rates had the pandemic not occurred was estimated. Changes in utilization rates between January and February 2020 and each subsequent 2-month time frame during the pandemic were compared with the changes in the corresponding months from the year prior. Age- and sex-adjusted Poisson regression models of monthly utilization counts were used, offsetting for total patient-months and stratifying by service and insurance type. Exposures: Patients with Medicaid or Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility compared with patients with commercial, Medicare Advantage, or Medicare fee-for-service insurance, respectively. Main Outcomes and Measures: Utilization rates per 100 people for 6 services: emergency department, office and urgent care, behavioral health, screening colonoscopies, screening mammograms, and contraception counseling or HIV screening. Results: More than 14.5 million US adults were included (mean age, 52.7 years; 54.9% women). In the March-April 2020 time frame, the combined use of 6 ambulatory services declined to 67.0% (95% CI, 66.9%-67.1%) of expected rates, but returned to 96.7% (95% CI, 96.6%-96.8%) of expected rates by the November-December 2020 time frame. During the second COVID-19 wave in the January-February 2021 time frame, overall utilization again declined to 86.2% (95% CI, 86.1%-86.3%) of expected rates, with colonoscopy remaining at 65.0% (95% CI, 64.1%-65.9%) and mammography at 79.2% (95% CI, 78.5%-79.8%) of expected rates. By the January-February 2021 time frame, overall utilization returned to expected rates as follows: patients with Medicaid at 78.4% (95% CI, 78.2%-78.7%), Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility at 73.3% (95% CI, 72.8%-73.8%), commercial at 90.7% (95% CI, 90.5%-90.9%), Medicare Advantage at 83.2% (95% CI, 81.7%-82.2%), and Medicare fee-for-service at 82.0% (95% CI, 81.7%-82.2%; P < .001; comparing return to expected utilization rates among patients with Medicaid and Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility, respectively, with each of the other insurance types). Conclusions and Relevance: Between March 2020 and February 2021, aggregate use of 6 ambulatory care services increased after the preceding decrease in utilization that followed the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the rate of increase in use of these ambulatory care services was significantly lower for participants with Medicaid or Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility than for those insured by commercial, Medicare Advantage, or Medicare fee-for-service.

Contrast-enhanced Mammography: State of the Art.

Contrast-enhanced mammography (CEM) has emerged as a viable alternative to contrast-enhanced breast MRI, and it may increase access to vascular imaging while reducing examination cost. Intravenous iodinated contrast materials are used in CEM to enhance the visualization of tumor neovascularity. After injection, imaging is performed with dual-energy digital mammography, which helps provide a low-energy image and a recombined or iodine image that depict enhancing lesions in the breast. CEM has been demonstrated to help improve accuracy compared with digital mammography and US in women with abnormal screening mammographic findings or symptoms of breast cancer. It has also been demonstrated to approach the accuracy of breast MRI in preoperative staging of patients with breast cancer and in monitoring response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. There are early encouraging results from trials evaluating CEM in the screening of women who are at an increased risk of breast cancer. Although CEM is a promising tool, it slightly increases radiation dose and carries a small risk of adverse reactions to contrast materials. This review details the CEM technique, diagnostic and screening uses, and future applications, including artificial intelligence and radiomics.

Current Status and Future of BI-RADS in Multimodality Imaging, From the AJR Special Series on Radiology Reporting and Data Systems.

BI-RADS is a communication and data tracking system that has evolved since its inception as a brief mammography lexicon and reporting guide into a robust structured reporting platform and comprehensive quality assurance tool for mammography, ultrasound, and MRI. Consistent and appropriate use of the BI-RADS lexicon terminology and assessment categories effectively communicates findings, estimates the risk of malignancy, and provides management recommendations to patients and referring clinicians. The impact of BI-RADS currently extends internationally through six language translations. A condensed version has been proposed to facilitate a phased implementation of BI-RADS in resource-constrained regions. The primary advance of the 5th edition of BI-RADS is harmonization of the lexicon terms across mammography, ultrasound, and MRI. Harmonization has also been achieved across these modalities for the reporting structure, assessment categories, management recommendations, and data tracking system. Areas for improvement relate to certain common findings that lack lexicon descriptors and a need for further clarification of proper use of category 3. BI-RADS is anticipated to continue to evolve for application to a range of emerging breast imaging modalities.

The development of breast radiology: the Acta Radiologica perspective.

The encouraging results of modern breast cancer care builds on tremendous improvements in diagnostics and therapy during the 20th century. Scandinavian countries have made important footprints in the development of breast diagnostics regarding technical development of imaging, cell and tissue sampling methods and, not least, population screening with mammography. The multimodality approach in combination with multidisciplinary clinical work in breast cancer serve as a role model for the management of many cancer types worldwide. The development of breast radiology is well represented in the research published in this journal and this historical review will describe the most important steps.

[Artificial intelligence in the diagnosis of breast cancer : Yesterday, today and tomorrow]. / Künstliche Intelligenz in der Mammadiagnostik : Gestern, heute und morgen.

BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly applied in the field of breast imaging. OBJECTIVES: What are the main areas where AI is applied in breast imaging and what AI and computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems are already available? MATERIALS AND METHODS: Basic literature and vendor-supplied information are screened for relevant information, which is then pooled, structured and discussed from the perspective of breast imaging. RESULTS: Original CAD systems in mammography date almost 25 years back. They are much more widely applied in the United States than in Europe. The initial CAD systems exhibited limited diagnostic abilities and disproportionally high rates of false positive results. Since 2012, deep learning mechanisms have been applied and expand the application possibilities of AI. CONCLUSION: To date there is no algorithm that has beyond doubt been proven to outperform double reporting by two certified breast radiologists. AI could, however, in the foreseeable future, take over the following tasks: preselection of abnormal examinations to substantially reduce workload of the radiologists by either excluding normal findings from human review or by replacing the double reader in screening. Furthermore, the establishment of radio-patho-genomic correlations and their translation into clinical practice is hardly conceivable without AI.

Artificial Intelligence for Mammography and Digital Breast Tomosynthesis: Current Concepts and Future Perspectives.

Although computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) is widely used in mammography, conventional CAD programs that use prompts to indicate potential cancers on the mammograms have not led to an improvement in diagnostic accuracy. Because of the advances in machine learning, especially with use of deep (multilayered) convolutional neural networks, artificial intelligence has undergone a transformation that has improved the quality of the predictions of the models. Recently, such deep learning algorithms have been applied to mammography and digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT). In this review, the authors explain how deep learning works in the context of mammography and DBT and define the important technical challenges. Subsequently, they discuss the current status and future perspectives of artificial intelligence-based clinical applications for mammography, DBT, and radiomics. Available algorithms are advanced and approach the performance of radiologists-especially for cancer detection and risk prediction at mammography. However, clinical validation is largely lacking, and it is not clear how the power of deep learning should be used to optimize practice. Further development of deep learning models is necessary for DBT, and this requires collection of larger databases. It is expected that deep learning will eventually have an important role in DBT, including the generation of synthetic images.

Trends in mammography, hormone replacement therapy, and breast cancer incidence and mortality in Canadian women.

PURPOSE: The purpose of the study is to examine relationships between long-term trends of region- and age-specific rates of mammography, hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and breast cancer incidence and mortality in Canadian women aged 35 years and older. METHODS: Population-based complex surveys were used to estimate mammography use in the past 2 years and ever, and HRT use in the past month. National population-based administrative data were used to estimate breast cancer incidence and mortality. Joinpoint analyses were used to estimate trends in rates and years where trend changed. RESULTS: No consistent relationship between mammography use and breast cancer incidence was observed across age groups. Opportunistic screening occurred prior to the establishment of organized screening programs in Canada and prior to substantial declines in breast cancer mortality observed around 1990. Women aged 35-39 years demonstrated a 62.8% relative decrease in breast cancer mortality between 1950 and 2015 despite lower rates of mammography use in the past 2 years (range 9.4-15.9%) reinforcing important treatment advances. A substantial proportion of women in their 40s report mammography use in the past 2 years (range 35.8-42.2%) and regional variation exists reflecting inconsistencies in guidelines across Canada. CONCLUSION: Rates of mammography use over time do not necessarily reflect national guideline releases or establishment of organized screening programs.

The Impact of Breast Density Notification Laws on Supplemental Breast Imaging and Breast Biopsy.

BACKGROUND: Dense breast tissue increases breast cancer risk and lowers mammography sensitivity, but the value of supplemental imaging for dense breasts remains uncertain. Since 2009, 37 states and Washington DC have passed legislation requiring patient notification about breast density. OBJECTIVE: Examine the effects of state breast density notification laws on use of supplemental breast imaging and breast biopsies. DESIGN: Difference-in-differences analysis of supplemental imaging and biopsies before and after notification laws in 12 states enacting breast density notification laws from 2009 to 2014 and 12 matched control states. Supplemental imaging/biopsy within 6 months following an index mammogram were evaluated during four time periods related to legislation: (1) 6 months before, (2) 0-6 months after, (3) 6-12 months after, and (4) 12-18 months after. PARTICIPANTS: Women ages 40-64 years receiving an initial mammogram in a state that passed a breast density notification law or a control state. INTERVENTION: Mandatory breast density notification following an index mammogram. MAIN MEASURES: Use of breast biopsies and supplemental breast imaging (breast ultrasound, tomosynthesis, magnetic resonance imaging, scintimammography, and thermography), overall and by specific test. KEY RESULTS: Supplemental breast imaging and biopsy increased modestly in states with notification laws and changed minimally in control states. Adjusted rates of supplemental imaging and biopsy within 6 months of mammography before legislation were 8.5% and 3.1%, respectively. Compared with pre-legislation in intervention and control states, legislation was associated with adjusted difference-in-differences estimates of + 1.3% (p < 0.0001) and + 0.4% (p < 0.0001) for supplemental imaging and biopsies, respectively, in the 6-12 months after the law and difference-in-differences estimates of + 3.3% (p < 0.0001) and + 0.8% (p < 0.0001) for supplemental imaging and biopsies, respectively, 12-18 months after the law. CONCLUSIONS: As breast density notification laws are considered, policymakers and clinicians should expect increases in breast imaging/biopsies. Additional research is needed on these laws' effects on cost and patient outcomes.

Trends in surgical treatment for breast cancer in Germany after the implementation of the mammography screening program.

In Germany, the nationwide population-based mammography screening program (MSP) was introduced in 2005 and is full-running since 2010. By 2014, incidence rates for invasive breast cancer were very similar to those of the pre-screening era. Therefore, the ongoing effect of the MSP on breast cancer surgery rates can now be investigated. We analyzed population-based breast-conserving (BCS) and mastectomy (MET) surgery rates (per 100,000) among women aged < 50, 50-69 (eligible for the MSP), and 70+ years among women with in situ and invasive breast cancer during 2005-2015. For invasive breast cancer, both BCS and MET rates slightly increased in the age group < 50 years (38.3 in 2005 vs 42.5 in 2015 and 15.7 vs 18.2, respectively). In contrast, MET rates considerably decreased among women aged 50-69 and 70+ years (92 vs 65.4 and 155.4 vs 122.1, respectively), while BCS rates increased in both age groups (210.6 vs 254.4 and 147.2 vs 187, respectively). For in situ breast cancer, MET rates slightly increased in all age groups. BCS rates slightly increased in women aged < 50, but nearly doubled for women aged 50-69 (26.9 vs 49.1) and markedly increased in the 70+ age group (11.5 vs 16.1). During and after the implementation of MSP, there was a strong shift towards BCS within the screening-eligible age group and for women aged 70+ . Women with invasive breast cancer in these age groups may profit from screening with a decline of MET rates in favor of BCS rates at the expense of higher surgery rates for in situ breast cancer.

Artificial intelligence in breast imaging.

This article reviews current limitations and future opportunities for the application of computer-aided detection (CAD) systems and artificial intelligence in breast imaging. Traditional CAD systems in mammography screening have followed a rules-based approach, incorporating domain knowledge into hand-crafted features before using classical machine learning techniques as a classifier. The first commercial CAD system, ImageChecker M1000, relies on computer vision techniques for pattern recognition. Unfortunately, CAD systems have been shown to adversely affect some radiologists' performance and increase recall rates. The Digital Mammography DREAM Challenge was a multidisciplinary collaboration that provided 640,000 mammography images for teams to help decrease false-positive rates in breast cancer screening. Winning solutions leveraged deep learning's (DL) automatic hierarchical feature learning capabilities and used convolutional neural networks. Start-ups Therapixel and Kheiron Medical Technologies are using DL for breast cancer screening. With increasing use of digital breast tomosynthesis, specific artificial intelligence (AI)-CAD systems are emerging to include iCAD's PowerLook Tomo Detection and ScreenPoint Medical's Transpara. Other AI-CAD systems are focusing on breast diagnostic techniques such as ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). There is a gap in the market for contrast-enhanced spectral mammography AI-CAD tools. Clinical implementation of AI-CAD tools requires testing in scenarios mimicking real life to prove its usefulness in the clinical environment. This requires a large and representative dataset for testing and assessment of the reader's interaction with the tools. A cost-effectiveness assessment should be undertaken, with a large feasibility study carried out to ensure there are no unintended consequences. AI-CAD systems should incorporate explainable AI in accordance with the European Union General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).

Temporal changes in breast cancer screening coverage provided under the Brazilian National Health Service between 2008 and 2017.

BACKGROUND: In Brazil, 70% of the population depends on the public healthcare system. Since early detection is considered crucial, this study aimed to evaluate temporal changes in breast cancer screening coverage provided under the Brazilian National Health Service (SUS) according to the different regions of the country between 2008 and 2017. METHODS: This ecological study analyzed data on breast cancer screening within the SUS for women aged 50-69 years. Coverage was calculated from the ratio between the number of screening tests conducted and the expected number for the target population. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate annual percent changes (APC) in coverage. RESULTS: Around 19 million mammograms were performed in 50-69-year old women within the SUS between 2008 and 2016. The estimated APC indicates that breast cancer screening coverage increased by 14.5% annually in Brazil between 2008 and 2012 (p < 0.01), with figures stabilizing between 2012 and 2017 as shown by an APC of - 0.4% (p = 0.3). In the five geographic regions of the country, the APC initially increased, then stabilized in the north, northeast and southeast and decreased in the south and Midwest. Of the 26 states, coverage increased in seven and remained stable in six. In the other 13, there was an initial increase followed by stabilization in 11, and a reduction in coverage in two. In the Federal District, coverage remained stable throughout the study period. CONCLUSION: Evaluation of the temporal changes in breast cancer screening coverage provided under the Brazilian National Health Service revealed an initial increase, confirming that public policies were effective, although insufficient to ensure organized screening. There appears to be a lack of uniformity between the different regions and states and this situation is highlighted in the final 5-year period, with the APC reflecting stabilization of breast cancer screening coverage.

Predicting reattendance to the second round of the Maltese national breast screening programme: an analytical descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: A range of barriers influence women's uptake to a first breast screening invitation. Few studies however, have examined factors associated with second screening uptake. This study follows Maltese women to explore predictors and behaviours to re-attendance, and to determine if uptake of first invitation to the Maltese Breast Screening Programme (MBSP) is a significant predictor of second screening uptake. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted to determine factors associated with re-attendance for 100 women invited to the second MBSP round. Records of women's second attendance to the MBSP were extracted in January 2016 from the MBSP database. Data were analyzed using chi-square tests, Independent Samples t-test, Mann Whitney test, Shapiro Wilk test and logistic regression. RESULTS: There were no significant associations for sociodemographic or health status variables with second screening uptake (p > 0.05), except breast condition (Fisher's exact test, p = 0.046). Non-attendees at second screening were most unsure of screening frequency recommendations (χ2 = 9.580, p = 0.048). Attendees were more likely to perceive their susceptibility to breast cancer (p = 0.041), believed breast cancer to be life changing (p = 0.011) and considered cues to action to aid attendance (p = 0.028). Non-attendees were in stronger agreement on mammography pain (p = 0.008) and were less likely to consider cues to action (15.4% non-attendees vs 1.4% attendees) (p = 0.017 respectively). 'Perceived barriers', 'breast cancer identity', 'causes' and 'consequences' were found to be significant predictors of second screening uptake, with 'perceived barriers' being the strongest. The inclusion of illness perception items improved the regression model's accuracy in predicting non-attendance to the second screening round (84.6% vs 30.8%). First screening uptake was found to be a significant predictor of subsequent uptake (OR = 0.102; 95% CI = 0.037, 0.283; p = 0.000). CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to increase uptake should target first invitees since attending for the first time is a strong predictor of uptake to the second cycle. Further research is required given the small sample. Particular attention should be paid to women who did not respond to their first invite or are unsure or reluctant participants initially.

The Future of Contrast-Enhanced Mammography.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this article is to discuss facilitators of and barriers to future implementation of contrast-enhanced mammography (CEM) in the United States. CONCLUSION: CEM provides low-energy 2D mammographic images analogous to digital mammography and contrast-enhanced recombined images that allow assessment of neovascularity similar to that offered by MRI. The utilization of CEM in the United States is currently low but could increase rapidly given the many potential indications for its clinical use.

Role of tomosynthesis in breast imaging going forward.

Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is a modified mammographic technique that overcomes some of the limitations of full-field digital mammography (2DDM) by eliminating the effect of overlapping breast tissue. In the UK, DBT is utilised in both the symptomatic setting and in breast screening assessment clinics. A literature search was conducted from 2010-2017 to ensure that the most recent developments in DBT technology, clinical applications, and assessment of its usefulness in breast screening were reviewed. Technological advances in DBT include the addition of synthetic 2D mammograms, which are generated from the DBT data set, and the use of DBT to guide vacuum-assisted biopsy and excisions. The units from each vendor vary in several aspects, which are detailed in this article. DBT improves diagnostic accuracy and reader confidence when identifying benign and malignant lesions. It has also been shown to be more accurate than 2DDM in assessing tumour size and in the assessment of multifocal tumours. In the screening setting, retrospective reader studies have shown that the addition of DBT to 2DDM showed equivalent or an improvement in sensitivity and specificity when compared to 2DDM alone. Many of these trials showed an increase in invasive cancer detection and a reduction in recall rates. Large prospective randomised controlled trials conducted in Europe and North America will evaluate effectiveness, practicalities, and cost implications of utilising DBT in routine breast screening practice.

Routine colonoscopy, diabetic eye care, mammogram and pap smear screening in vascular surgery patients.

Objective An increasing emphasis on preventive medicine has been supported by the recent reforms in United States health care system. Majority of the patients seen in vascular surgery clinics are elderly with more extensive medical comorbidities compared to the general population. Thus, these patients would be expected at higher risk for common malignant pathologies such as colon, breast and cervical cancer, and nonmalignant diseases such as diabetic retinopathy. This study looked at the screening compliance of vascular patients compared to data provided by Centers for Disease Control on the national and state levels. Methods The office records of 851 consecutive patients seen in Brooklyn and Staten Island vascular clinics were examined. We queried patients regarding their last colonoscopy, diabetic eye exams, recent mammograms, and Pap smears. Our patient screening compliance was compared between the two clinics as well as to the national and New York state data provided by Centers for Disease Control. Compliance with regard to patient's age was also examined. Results Patients referred to the Staten Island office have a better colonoscopy compliance compared to the Brooklyn office ( P = .0001) and the national Centers for Disease Control average ( P = .026). Compliance for mammography and cervical cancer screening was higher in Staten Island office compared to the Brooklyn office ( P = .0001, P < .0001), respectively. Compliance was lower for Pap smear ( P = .0273) in Brooklyn when compared to the national average. Compliance for colonoscopy increased with age for both clinics ( P = .001, P < .001), while Pap smear decreased ( P < .001, P = .004). Conclusion Patients in vascular clinics in an urban setting had better adherence to screening protocol than the national and state average, with the exception of female patients for colonoscopy in our Brooklyn vascular office. There exists variability in both patient populations based on sub-specific locality and demographics including socioeconomic status. Overall, however patients in Staten Island had better compliance and adherence to the screening protocol than Brooklyn vascular clinic.

Forecasting Participants in the All Women Count! Mammography Program.

INTRODUCTION: The All Women Count! (AWC!) program is a no-cost breast and cervical cancer screening program for qualifying women in South Dakota. Our study aimed to identify counties with similar socioeconomic characteristics and to estimate the number of women who will use the program for the next 5 years. METHODS: We used AWC! data and sociodemographic predictor variables (eg, poverty level [percentage of the population with an annual income at or below 200% of the Federal Poverty Level], median income) and a mixture of Gaussian regression time series models to perform clustering and forecasting simultaneously. Model selection was performed by using Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Forecasting of the predictor variables was done by using an autoregressive integrated moving average model. RESULTS: By using BIC, we identified 5 clusters showing the groups of South Dakota counties with similar characteristics in terms of predictor variables and the number of participants. The mixture model identified groups of counties with increasing or decreasing trends in participation and forecast averages per cluster. CONCLUSION: The mixture of regression time series model used in this study allowed for the identification of similar counties and provided a forecasting model for future years. Although several predictors contributed to program participation, we believe our forecasting analysis by county may provide useful information to improve the implementation of the AWC! program by informing program managers on the expected number of participants in the next 5 years. This, in turn, will help in data-driven resource allocation.

Use of patient decision aids increased younger women's reluctance to begin screening mammography: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: As breast cancer screening guidelines have changed recently, additional investigation is needed to understand changes in women's behavior after using breast cancer screening patient decision aids (BCS-PtDAs) and the potential effect on mammography utilization. This systematic review and meta-analysis sought to evaluate the effect of BCS-PtDAs on changes in women's intentions to undergo screening mammography and whether women deciding to begin or discontinue screening mammography displayed similar changes in screening intentions after using a BCS-PtDA. METHODS: We searched Medline, Scopus, PsycINFO, CENTRAL, Health and Psychosocial Instruments, Health Technology Assessment Database, PsycARTICLES, and cited references in eligible papers for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies, published through August 24, 2016. The proportions of women who did and not intend to undergo screening and who were uncertain about undergoing screening mammography were pooled, using risk ratios (RR) and random effects. According to the protocol, RCTs or observational studies and any language were considered eligible for systematic review if they included data about women for which shared decision making is recommended. RESULTS: We ultimately included six studies with screening intention data for 2040 women. Compared to usual care, the use of BCS-PtDAs in three RCTs resulted in significantly more women deciding not to undergo screening mammography (RR 1.48 [95% CI 1.04-2.13]; P = 0.03), particularly for younger (38-50 years) women (1.77 [1.34-2.34]; P < 0.001). The use of BCS-PtDAs had a non-significant effect on the intentions of older women (69-89 years) to discontinue screening. CONCLUSIONS: The use of BCS-PtDAs increased younger women's reluctance to undergo screening for breast cancer. The implementation of such BCS-PtDAs in clinical practice would be expected to result in a 77% increase in the number of younger women (aged 38-50) who do not intend to be screened, and as a consequence, may reduce utilization of screening mammography. REGISTRATION: The protocol of this review is registered in the PROSPERO database, #CRD42016036695.