Advancing progress on tobacco control in low-income and middle-income countries through economic analysis.

BACKGROUND: More than 80% of the world's 1.3 billion tobacco users live in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where progress to address tobacco and its harms has been slow. The perception that tobacco control detracts from economic priorities has impeded progress. The Secretariat of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) is leading the FCTC 2030 project, which includes technical assistance to LMICs to analyse the economic costs of tobacco use and the benefits of tobacco control. METHODS: The Secretariat of the WHO FCTC, United Nations Development Programme and WHO supported 21 LMICs between 2017 and 2022 to complete national investment cases to guide country implementation of the WHO FCTC, with analytical support provided by RTI International. These country-level cases combine customised estimates of tobacco's economic impact with qualitative analysis of socio-political factors influencing tobacco control. This paper overviews the approach, observed tobacco control advancements and learnings from 21 countries: Armenia, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Chad, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Eswatini, Georgia, Ghana, Jordan, Laos, Madagascar, Myanmar, Nepal, Samoa, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Tunisia and Zambia. RESULTS: Tobacco control advancements in line with investment case findings and recommendations have been observed in 17 of the 21 countries, and many have improved collaboration and policy coherence between health and economic stakeholders. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco control must be seen as more than a health concern. Tobacco control leads to economic benefits and contributes to sustainable development. National investment cases can support country ownership and leadership to advance tobacco control.

Interpreting results, impacts and implications from WHO FCTC tobacco control investment cases in 21 low-income and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco control investment cases analyse the health and socioeconomic costs of tobacco use and the benefits that can be achieved from implementing measures outlined in the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC). They are intended to provide policy-makers and other stakeholders with country-level evidence that is relevant, useful and responsive to national priorities and policy context. METHODS: This paper synthesises findings from investment cases conducted in Armenia, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Chad, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Eswatini, Georgia, Ghana, Jordan, Laos, Madagascar, Myanmar, Nepal, Samoa, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Tunisia and Zambia. We examine annual socioeconomic costs associated with tobacco use, focusing on smoking-related healthcare expenditures, the value of lives lost due to tobacco-related mortality and workplace productivity losses due to smoking. We explore potential benefits associated with WHO FCTC tobacco demand-reduction measures. RESULTS: Tobacco use results in average annual socioeconomic losses of US$95 million, US$610 million and US$1.6 billion among the low-income (n=3), lower-middle-income (n=12) and upper-middle-income countries (n=6) included in this analysis, respectively. These losses are equal to 1.1%, 1.8% and 2.9% of average annual national gross domestic product, respectively. Implementation and enforcement of WHO FCTC tobacco demand-reduction measures would lead to reduced tobacco use, fewer tobacco-related deaths and reduced socioeconomic losses. CONCLUSIONS: WHO FCTC tobacco control measures would provide a positive return on investment in every country analysed.

Equity implications of tobacco taxation: results from WHO FCTC investment cases.

BACKGROUND: Across time, geographies and country income levels, smoking prevalence is highest among people with lower incomes. Smoking causes further impoverishment of those on the lower end of the income spectrum through expenditure on tobacco and greater risk of ill health. METHODS: This paper summarises the results of investment case equity analyses for 19 countries, presenting the effects of increased taxation on smoking prevalence, health and expenditures. We disaggregate the number of people who smoke, smoking-attributable mortality and cigarette expenditures using smoking prevalence data by income quintile. A uniform 30% increase in price was applied across countries. We estimated the effects of the price increase on smoking prevalence, mortality and cigarette expenditures. RESULTS: In all but one country (Bhutan), a one-time 30% increase in price would reduce smoking prevalence by the largest percent among the poorest 20% of the population. All income groups in all countries would spend more on cigarettes with a 30% increase in price. However, the poorest 20% would pay an average of 12% of the additional money spent. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that health benefits from increases in price through taxation are pro-poor. Even in countries where smoking prevalence is higher among wealthier groups, increasing prices can still be pro-poor due to variable responsiveness to higher prices. The costs associated with higher smoking prevalence among the poor, together with often limited access to healthcare services and displaced spending on basic needs, result in health inequality and perpetuate the cycle of poverty.

Association of state tobacco control policies with active smoking at the time of intervention for intermittent claudication.

OBJECTIVE: Active smoking among patients undergoing interventions for intermittent claudication (IC) is associated with poor outcomes. Notwithstanding, current levels of active smoking in these patients are high. State-level tobacco control policies have been shown to reduce smoking in the general US population. We evaluated whether state cigarette taxes and 100% smoke-free workplace legislation are associated with active smoking among patients undergoing interventions for IC. METHODS: We queried the Vascular Quality Initiative database for peripheral endovascular interventions, infrainguinal bypasses, and suprainguinal bypasses for IC. Active smoking at the time of intervention was defined as smoking within one month of intervention. We implemented difference-in-differences analysis to isolate changes in active smoking owing to cigarette taxes (adjusted for inflation) and implementation of smoke-free workplace legislation. The difference-in-differences models estimated the causal effects of tobacco policies by adjusting for concurrent temporal trends in active smoking unrelated to cigarette taxes or smoke-free workplace legislation. The models controlled for age, sex, race/ethnicity, insurance type, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, state, and year. We tested interactions of taxes with age and insurance. RESULTS: Data were available for 59,847 patients undergoing interventions for IC in 25 states from 2011 to 2019. Across the study period, active smoking at the time of intervention decreased from 48% to 40%. Every $1.00 cigarette tax increase was associated with a 6-percentage point decrease in active smoking (95% confidence interval, -10 to -1 percentage points; P = .02), representing an 11% decrease relative to the baseline proportion of patients actively smoking. The effect of cigarettes taxes was greater in older patients and those on Medicare. Among patients aged 60 to 69 and 70 to 79 years, every $1.00 tax increase resulted in 14% and 21% reductions in active smoking relative to baseline subgroup prevalences of 53% and 29%, respectively (P < .05 for both); however, younger age groups were not affected by tax increases. Among insurance groups, only patients on Medicare exhibited a significant change in active smoking with every $1.00 tax increase (an 18% decrease relative to a 33% baseline prevalence; P = .01). The number of states implementing smoke-free workplace legislation increased from 9 to 14 by 2019; however, this policy was not significantly associated with active smoking prevalence. At follow-up (median, 12.9 months), $1.00 tax increases were still associated with decreased smoking prevalence (a 25% decrease relative to a 33% baseline prevalence; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette tax increases seem to be an effective strategy to decrease active smoking among patients undergoing interventions for IC. Older patients and Medicare recipients are the most responsive to tax increases.

A discarded cigar package survey in New York City: indicators of non-compliance with local flavoured tobacco restrictions.

INTRODUCTION: In 2009, New York City (NYC) restricted the sale of flavoured tobacco products. We assessed product availability as a proxy for potential non-compliance by analysing discarded cigar, cigarillo and blunt wrap packages in New York City. METHODS: A discarded cigar package survey was conducted in 2016, in a stratified random sample of 94 block groups in NYC resulting in the collection of 886 discarded cigar packages. Each package was coded for brand name, flavour description (explicit and implicit) and size. FINDINGS: Overall, 19.2% of the cigar packages were explicitly flavoured. An additional 9.4% of the packages reflected implicit flavours. Explicit flavoured cigar packages were at increased odds of being found in Staten Island (adjusted OR (AOR)=3.96, 95% CI=1.66 to 9.46), in packaging size of two or three (AOR=8.49, 95% CI=4.24 to 17.02) or four or more (AOR=4.26, 95% CI=1.95 to 9.30). CONCLUSION: Nearly one out of three cigar packages were flavoured products suggesting a problematic level of non-compliance and continued availability. Potential non-compliance is likely fueled by licensed wholesalers and retailers who continue to sell restricted flavoured products. Some retailers may be unaware that implicitly named cigars are typically flavoured and are, therefore, illegal. This lack of awareness of implicit flavoured cigars may be exacerbated by NYC's lack of education or enforcement specific to implicitly flavoured tobacco products.

A decade of cigarette taxation in Bangladesh: lessons learnt for tobacco control.

Bangladesh has achieved a high share of tax in the price of cigarettes (greater than the 75% benchmark), but has not achieved the expected health benefits from reduction in cigarette consumption. In this paper we explore why cigarette taxation has not succeeded in reducing cigarette smoking in Bangladesh. Using government records over 2006-2017, we link trends in tax-paid cigarette sales to cigarette excise tax structure and changes in cigarette taxes and prices. We analysed data on smoking prevalence from Bangladesh Global Adult Tobacco Surveys to study consumption of different tobacco products in 2009 and 2017. Drawing on annual reports from tobacco manufacturers and other literature, we examine demand- and supply-side factors in the cigarette market. In addition to a growing affordability of cigarettes, three factors appear to have undermined the effectiveness of tax and price increases in reducing cigarette consumption in Bangladesh. First, the multitiered excise tax structure widened the price differential between brands and incentivized downward substitution by smokers from higher-price to lower-price cigarettes. Second, income growth and shifting preferences of smokers for better quality products encouraged upward substitution from hand-rolled local cigarettes (bidi) to machine-made low-price cigarettes. Third, the tobacco industry's market expansion and differential pricing strategy changed the relative price to keep low-price cigarettes inexpensive. A high tax share alone may prove inadequate as a barometer of effective tobacco taxation in lower-middle income countries, particularly where the tobacco tax structure is complex, tobacco products prices are relatively low, and the affordability of tobacco products is increasing.

Le Bangladesh applique un fort pourcentage de taxe sur les prix du tabac (au-delà du référent habituel de 75% du prix de détail) sans pour autant avoir atteint le bénéfice sanitaire attendu de réduction du tabagisme. Cet article se penche sur les raisons pour lesquelles la taxation du tabac n'est pas parvenue à réduire le tabagisme au Bangladesh. En utilisant les données gouvernementales couvrant la période comprise en 2006 et 2017, nous avons relié les tendances de vente des produits du tabac taxés avec la structure des droits d'accise sur le tabac et avec l'évolution des prix et des taxes sur le tabac. Nous avons analysé les données relatives à la prévalence du tabagisme à partir des enquêtes sur le tabagisme des adultes (GATS) réalisées en 2009 et 2017 au Bangladesh afin d'étudier la consommation des différents produits du tabac. À partir des rapports annuels des fabricants de tabac et d'autres ressources, nous avons examiné l'évolution du marché du tabac, côté demande et côté offre. Outre le fait que les cigarettes sont devenues plus abordables au fil du temps, trois facteurs semblent avoir sapé l'efficacité de l'augmentation des prix et des taxes dans l'objectif de réduction de la consommation de tabac au Bangladesh. Premièrement, la structure multi-niveau des droits d'accise sur le tabac a eu pour effet d'augmenter le différentiel de prix entre les marques, ce qui a poussé les consommateurs à opter pour des cigarettes moins chères. Deuxièmement, l'augmentation des revenus et le changement de préférence des consommateurs en faveur de produits de meilleure qualité ont fait que les consommateurs ont délaissé le tabac à rouler local (« bidi ¼) pour se tourner vers les cigarettes industrielles les moins chères. Troisièmement, du fait de l'expansion de ses marchés et de sa stratégie de différenciation des prix, l'industrie du tabac a fait évoluer les prix relatifs afin que les cigarettes les moins chères restent abordables. Un fort pourcentage de taxation peut s'avérer inapproprié, à lui seul, en tant que baromètre de l'efficacité des mesures de taxation du tabac dans les pays à revenu faible ou intermédiaire, notamment lorsque la structure de taxation du tabac est complexe, que les prix des produits du tabac sont relativement bas et qu'ils deviennent plus abordables au fil du temps.

Bangladesh ha alcanzado una elevada cuota de impuestos en el precio de los cigarrillos (superior al 75 % de referencia), pero no ha logrado los beneficios para la salud esperados de la reducción del consumo de cigarrillos. En este artículo exploramos por qué los impuestos sobre los cigarrillos no han logrado reducir el consumo de cigarrillos en Bangladesh. Utilizando los registros del gobierno entre 2006 y 2017, vinculamos las tendencias de las ventas de cigarrillos pagados con la estructura de los impuestos al consumo de cigarrillos y los cambios en los impuestos y precios de los cigarrillos. Se analizaron los datos sobre la prevalencia del tabaquismo de la Encuesta Mundial del Tabaco en Adultos de Bangladesh para estudiar el consumo de diferentes productos de tabaco en 2009 y 2017. Basándonos en los informes anuales de los fabricantes de tabaco y otras publicaciones, examinamos los factores de la demanda y la oferta en el mercado de cigarrillos. Además de la creciente asequibilidad de los cigarrillos, tres factores parecen haber socavado la eficacia de los aumentos de impuestos y precios en la reducción del consumo de cigarrillos en Bangladesh. En primer lugar, la estructura del impuesto especial de varios niveles amplió la diferencia de precios entre las marcas e incentivó la sustitución a la baja por parte de los fumadores, que pasaron de los cigarrillos de precio más alto a los de precio más bajo. En segundo lugar, el crecimiento de los ingresos y el cambio de las preferencias de los fumadores por productos de mejor calidad fomentaron la sustitución de los cigarrillos locales enrollados a mano (bidi) por cigarrillos de bajo precio hechos a máquina. Tercero, la expansión del mercado de la industria tabacalera y la estrategia de precios diferenciales cambiaron el precio relativo para mantener los cigarrillos de bajo precio baratos. Una elevada cuota de impuestos por sí sola puede resultar inadecuada como barómetro de los impuestos efectivos sobre el tabaco en los países de ingresos medios-bajos, en particular cuando la estructura de los impuestos sobre el tabaco es compleja, los precios de los productos del tabaco son relativamente bajos y la asequibilidad de los productos del tabaco está aumentando.

Financial Conflicts of Interest and Stance on Tobacco Harm Reduction: A Systematic Review.

Background. Tobacco companies have actively promoted the substitution of cigarettes with purportedly safer tobacco products (e.g., smokeless tobacco, e-cigarettes) as tobacco harm reduction (THR). Given the tobacco, e-cigarette, and pharmaceutical industries' substantial financial interests, we quantified industry influence on support for THR. Objectives. To analyze a comprehensive set of articles published in peer-reviewed journals assessing funding sources and support for or opposition to substitution of tobacco or nicotine products as harm reduction. Search Methods. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and PsycINFO with a comprehensive search string including all articles, comments, and editorials published between January 1, 1992, and July 26, 2016. Selection Criteria. We included English-language publications published in peer-reviewed journals addressing THR in humans and excluded studies on modified cigarettes, on South Asian smokeless tobacco variants, on pregnant women, on animals, not mentioning a tobacco or nicotine product, on US Food and Drug Administration-approved nicotine replacement therapies, and on nicotine vaccines. Data Collection and Analysis. We double-coded all articles for article type; primary product type (e.g., snus, e-cigarettes); themes for and against THR; stance on THR; THR concepts; funding or affiliation with tobacco, e-cigarette, pharmaceutical industry, or multiple industries; and each author's country. We fit exact logistic regression models with stance on THR as the outcome (pro- vs anti-THR) and source of funding or industry affiliation as the predictor taking into account sparse data. Additional models included article type as the outcome (nonempirical or empirical) and industry funding or affiliation as predictor, and stratified analyses for empirical and nonempirical studies with stance on THR as outcome and funding source as predictor. Main Results. Searches retrieved 826 articles, including nonempirical articles (21%), letters or commentaries (34%), editorials (5%), cross-sectional studies (15%), systematic reviews and meta-analyses (3%), and randomized controlled trials (2%). Overall, 23.9% disclosed support by industry; 49% of articles endorsed THR, 42% opposed it, and 9% took neutral or mixed positions. Support from the e-cigarette industry (odds ratio [OR] = 20.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.3, 180.7), tobacco industry (OR = 59.4; 95% CI = 10.1, +infinity), or pharmaceutical industry (OR = 2.18; 95% CI = 1.3, 3.7) was significantly associated with supportive stance on THR in analyses accounting for sparse data. Authors' Conclusions. Non-industry-funded articles were evenly divided in stance, while industry-funded articles favored THR. Because of their quantity, letters and comments may influence perceptions of THR when empirical studies lack consensus. Public Health Implications. Public health practitioners and researchers need to account for industry funding when interpreting the evidence in THR debates.

Framework Convention on Tobacco Control Implementation in Nigeria: Lessons for Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria is a significant tobacco market and influential country in Africa. Nigeria ratified the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in 2005. We reviewed Nigeria's tobacco control legislation since 2000 and compliance of the National Tobacco Control Act (NTCA) 2015 with the FCTC. METHODS: We reviewed the National Tobacco Control Bills 2011 (proposed by legislature) and 2014 (proposed by Executive), the NTCA 2015, and media stories on tobacco control from 2008 to 2017. RESULTS: The NTCA, despite being more comprehensive than Nigeria's first Tobacco Smoking (Control) law of 1990, maintained provisions promoted by the tobacco industry, for example: allowing designated smoking areas in hospitality venues, higher educational institutions, and transportation venues; a loophole in the advertising restrictions allowing communications with consenting adults; and having the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) (which includes tobacco companies) on the National Tobacco Control Committee charged with working with the Ministry of Health to implement the law. The industry is also directly involved with the Standards Organisation of Nigeria (SON) in preparing regulations on cigarette constituents and emissions. In an unprecedented step globally, the law requires that implementing regulations be approved by the National Assembly, giving the industry another opportunity to weaken this law further by lobbying the legislators to favor the industry. As of January 2018, the law was still not being enforced. CONCLUSION: The NTCA can be strengthened through implementation guidelines still being developed. The industry should be prevented from interfering with through MAN and SON, as required by FCTC Article 5.3. IMPLICATIONS: The tobacco industry works to block Framework Convention on Tobacco Control implementation even after a country ratifies the treaty. The Nigerian case illustrates that it is essential for health authorities to remain vigilant and ensure that the tobacco industry does not play a decision-making role in the process of tobacco legislation and regulation either directly or indirectly. The unprecedented step of requiring approval of implementing regulations for the Nigerian law should not be allowed to become a precedent in other countries.

Indexation of Tobacco Excise and Customs Duty and Smoking Prevalence Among Australian Adults, 2001-2010: A Serial Cross-sectional Study.

INTRODUCTION: Australia's excise and customs duty on tobacco has been automatically increased biannually since 1984. Increases in duty on par with inflation ensured that tobacco stayed at least as costly as other goods. This would be expected to maintain, rather than drive down, smoking prevalence. We examined the association between smoking prevalence and duty over a 10-year period. METHODS: Using monthly data from five Australian capital cities, collected from March 2001 to March 2010 among Australians aged at least 18 years, multiple linear regression modeled associations between smoking prevalence and the two components (duty and non-duty) of the recommended retail price of an average packet of cigarettes, adjusting for policy covariates. RESULTS: Prevalence declined from 23.6% in March 2001 to 17.0% in March 2010 [absolute difference 6.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 6.5 to 6.8]. Duty increased from $0.2026 to $0.2622 per cigarette over the same period. In the adjusted model, a 1-cent increase in the duty component of price was not associated with changes in prevalence (0.019; 95% CI = -0.035 to 0.028). Increased non-duty component of price was associated with a decline in prevalence (-0.027; 95% CI = -0.052 to -0.002). This effect was stronger when changes in income were controlled for. CONCLUSIONS: In line with expectations, inflation-adjusted duty was not associated with changes in smoking prevalence, but it may have prevented upward pressure on prevalence that increasing affordability could have exerted. Frequent increases in duty greater than the growth in both wages and goods would more effectively reduce smoking than regular indexation. IMPLICATIONS: Few countries inflation-adjusted excise duty to ensure that tobacco products do not become more affordable; however, Australia experienced a decade of inflation adjustment alone, enabling the impact of this policy to be studied. This study shows that inflation-adjusted duty likely did prevent tobacco becoming more affordable and that indexation was associated with declines in smoking when tobacco companies over-shifted the duty rises (ie, increased price over and above duty rises).The study also suggests that frequent increases in taxation that exceed both wage growth and increases in costliness of other goods are needed to prompt increased rates of quitting.

Exploring the barriers and incentive architecture for modifying smoke exposures among asthmatics.

BACKGROUND: The socio-structural barriers for reducing secondhand smoke exposure (SHSe) among children with asthma may be insurmountable for low-income caregivers. Health promoting financial incentives (HPFIs) are increasingly being used in the adult population to motivate and sustain tobacco-reduction behaviors. We assessed barriers to SHSe reduction and means to overcome them through the design of an HPFI-based, caregiver-targeted SHSe reduction study. METHODS: Using a mixed-methods design, we conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews among low-income primary caregivers of children with asthma residing in Baltimore City. Quantitative data using an online survey were used to augment interview findings. RESULTS: Home smoking restrictions were a frequently referenced strategy for decreasing SHSe, but interviewees (n = 22) described the complex social pressures that undermine reduction efforts. Caregivers redirected conversations from broadly implemented smoking bans towards targeted reduction strategies among mothers and members of their social network who are active smokers. Participants converged on the notion that sustainable SHSe reduction strategies are realizable only for mothers who are active smokers, possess high self-efficacy and social structures that promote cessation. Survey data (n = 56) clarified the multiple contexts that underlie pediatric SHSe and preferred HPFI architecture that included fixed, recurrent payments contingent on reduced nicotine biomarkers and completion of basic asthma education classes. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the combined analyses, we envision testing a HPFI-based study design whose optimal target population included low-income caregivers and members of their social network where incentives are tied to pediatric biomarkers and asthma education-an integrated approach that has not yet been used in pediatric tobacco studies.

Does free or lower cost smoking cessation medication stimulate quitting? Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands and UK Surveys.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether mentioning free or lower cost smoking cessation medication as a trigger for thinking about quitting is related to higher medication use, more quit attempts and quit success, and whether these associations are modified by education and income. METHODS: Data were derived from the 2013 and 2014 surveys of the International Tobacco Control Netherlands (n=1164) and UK (n=768) cohort. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess associations between mentioning in 2013 that free/lower cost smoking cessation medication was a trigger for thinking about quitting smoking and the use of medication, quit attempts and smoking cessation in 2014. RESULTS: 37.0% of smokers in the UK and 24.9% of smokers in the Netherlands mentioned free/lower cost medication as a trigger for thinking about quitting. Smokers who mentioned this trigger were more likely to have used cessation medication during a quit attempt both in the UK (OR=4.19, p<0.001) and in the Netherlands (OR=2.14, p=0.033). The association between mentioning free/lower cost medication as a trigger for thinking about quitting and actual quit attempts was significant in the UK (OR=1.45, p=0.030), but not in the Netherlands (OR=1.10, p=0.587). There was no significant association with quit success. Associations did not differ across income and education groups. CONCLUSION: Free/lower cost smoking cessation medication may increase the use of cessation medication and stimulate quit attempts among smokers with low, moderate and high education and income.

Restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice: a modelling study of the future smoking prevalence, health and cost impacts.

OBJECTIVE: Restricting tobacco sales to pharmacies only, including the provision of cessation advice, has been suggested as a potential measure to hasten progress towards the tobacco endgame. We aimed to quantify the impacts of this hypothetical intervention package on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs for a country with an endgame goal: New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: We used two peer-reviewed simulation models: 1) a dynamic population forecasting model for smoking prevalence and 2) a closed cohort multi-state life-table model for future health gains and costs by sex, age and ethnicity. Greater costs due to increased travel distances to purchase tobacco were treated as an increase in the price of tobacco. Annual cessation rates were multiplied with the effect size for brief opportunistic cessation advice on sustained smoking abstinence. RESULTS: The intervention package was associated with a reduction in future smoking prevalence, such that by 2025 prevalence was 17.3%/6.8% for Maori (Indigenous)/non-Maori compared to 20.5%/8.1% projected under no intervention. The measure was furthermore estimated to accrue 41 700 discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 33 500 to 51 600) over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lives. Of these QALYs gained, 74% were due to the provision of cessation advice over and above the limiting of sales to pharmacies. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides modelling-level evidence that the package of restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice in these settings can accelerate progress towards the tobacco endgame, and achieve large population health benefits and cost-savings. :.

Exploiting a low tax system: non-tax-induced cigarette price increases in Taiwan 2011-2016.

INTRODUCTION: This study aims to analyse the non-tax-induced price increasing strategies adopted by tobacco industry in Taiwan, a high-income country with comprehensive tobacco control policies but low tobacco taxes and a declining cigarette market. METHODS: Using governmental tax, price and inflation data, we analysed cigarette sales volume, affordability, affordability elasticity of demand, market share, pricing and net revenue of the top five tobacco companies in Taiwan from 2011 to 2016 when no tax increases occurred. RESULTS: Total revenue after tax grew significantly for all the major transnational tobacco companies between 2011 and 2016 at the expense of the state-owned Taiwan Tobacco and Liquor Corporation. In terms of market share, Japan Tobacco (JT) was the leading company, despite experiencing a small decline, while British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands remained stable, and Philip Morris International increased from 4.7% to 7.0%. JT adopted the most effective pricing strategy by increasing the real price of its two most popular brands (Mevius and Mi-Ne) and, at the same time, doubling the sales of its cheaper and less popular brand Winston by leaving its nominal retail price unaltered. CONCLUSIONS: Low and unchanged tobacco taxes enable tobacco companies to use aggressive pricing and segmentation strategies to increase the real price of cigarettes without making them less affordable while simultaneously maintaining customers' loyalty. It is crucial to continue monitoring the industry's pricing strategies and to regularly increase taxes to promote public health and to prevent tobacco industry from profiting at the expense of government revenues.

Financial Incentives for Smoking Abstinence in Homeless Smokers: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial.

Introduction: Three-quarters of homeless people smoke cigarettes. Financial incentives for smoking abstinence have appeared promising in nonexperimental studies of homeless smokers, but randomized controlled trial (RCT) data are lacking. Methods: We conducted a pilot RCT of financial incentives for homeless smokers. Incentive arm participants (N = 25) could earn escalating $15-$35 rewards for brief smoking abstinence (exhaled carbon monoxide <8 parts per million) assessed 14 times over 8 weeks. Control arm participants (N = 25) were given $10 at each assessment regardless of abstinence. All participants were offered nicotine patches and counseling. The primary outcome was a repeated measure of brief smoking abstinence across 14 assessments. The secondary outcome was brief abstinence at 8 weeks. Exploratory outcomes were self-reported 1-day and 7-day abstinence from (1) any cigarette and (2) any puff of a cigarette. Other outcomes included 24-hour quit attempts, nicotine patch use, counseling attendance, and changes in alcohol and drug use. Results: Compared to control, incentive arm participants were more likely to achieve brief abstinence overall (odds ratio 7.28, 95% confidence interval 2.89 to 18.3) and at 8 weeks (48% vs. 8%, p = .004). Similar effects were seen for 1-day abstinence, but 7-day puff abstinence was negligible in both arms. Incentive arm participants made more quit attempts (p = .03). Nicotine patch use and counseling attendance were not significantly different between the groups. Alcohol and drug use did not change significantly in either group. Conclusions: Among homeless smokers, financial incentives increased brief smoking abstinence and quit attempts without worsening substance use. This approach merits further development focused on promoting sustained abstinence. Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02565381). Implications: Smoking is common among homeless people, and conventional tobacco treatment strategies have yielded modest results in this population. This pilot RCT suggests that financial incentives may be a safe way to promote brief smoking abstinence and quit attempts in this vulnerable group of smokers. However, further development is necessary to translate this approach into real-world settings and to promote sustained periods of smoking abstinence.

The Association Between State Value-Added Taxes and Tobacco Use in India-Evidence From GATS and TCP India Survey.

Introduction: State value-added taxes (VAT) on tobacco products have been increased significantly in recent years in India. Evidence on how these VATs were associated with smoking is highly needed. Methods: State bidi and cigarette VAT rates were linked to Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) India 2009-2010 and Tobacco Control Policy (TCP) India Survey waves 1 (2010-2011) and 2 (2012-2013), respectively. These linked data were used to analyze the associations between bidi VAT rates and bidi smoking, between cigarette VAT rates and cigarette smoking, and between the two VAT rates and dual use of bidis and cigarettes. Weighted logistic regressions were employed to examine GATS cross-sectional data, whereas generalized estimating equations (GEE) were employed to examine longitudinal TCP data. We further stratified the analyses by gender. Results: A 10% increase in cigarette VAT rates was associated with a 6.5% (p < .001) decrease in dual use of cigarettes and bidis among adults and a 0.9% decrease (p < .05) in cigarette smoking among males in TCP; and with a 21.6% decrease (p < .05) in dual use among adults and a 17.2% decrease (p < .001) in cigarette smoking among males in GATS. TCP analyses controlling for state fixed effects are less likely to be biased and indicate a cigarette price elasticity of -0.44. As female smoking prevalence was extremely low, these associations were nonsignificant for females. Conclusions: Higher state cigarette VAT rates in India were significantly associated with lower cigarette smoking and lower dual use of cigarettes and bidis. Increasing state VAT rates may significantly reduce smoking in India. Implications: Both Global Adult Tobacco Survey and Tobacco Control Policy (TCP) India datasets suggest that higher state cigarette value-added tax rates were significantly associated with lower male cigarette smoking and lower dual use of cigarettes and bidis among all adults in India. TCP analyses indicate a cigarette price elasticity of -0.44. As shown in this study, state tobacco taxes in the current taxation system are likely effective in reducing smoking. Given this, a future central goods and service tax (GST) system could consider keeping states' authority in implementing local tobacco taxes or designing a GST system that is equally or more effective in reducing tobacco use.

Geographical Inequality in Tobacco Control in China: Multilevel Evidence From 98†058 Participants.

Background: We investigated the spatial patterning and correlates of tobacco smoking, exposure to secondhand smoke, smoking in public places, workplace smoking prohibition, pro- and counter-tobacco advertisements in mainland China. Methods: Choropleth maps and multilevel models were used to assess geographical variation and correlates of the aforementioned outcome variables for 98 058 participants across 31 provinces of China in 2010. Results: Current tobacco smoking prevalence was higher in the central provinces for men and in the north eastern provinces and Tibet for women. Secondhand smoke was higher for both genders in Qinghai and Hunan provinces. Workplace tobacco restrictions was higher in the north and east, whereas smoking in public places was more common in the west, central, and far northeast. Protobacco advertising was observed in public places more often by men (18.5%) than women (13.1%). Men (35.5%) were also more likely to sight counter-tobacco advertising in public places than women (30.1%). Awareness of workplace tobacco restrictions was more common in affluent urban areas. Lower awareness of workplace tobacco restrictions was in less affluent urban and rural areas. Sightings of tobacco smoking in public places was highest in restaurants (80.4% for men, 75.0% for women) and also commonly reported in less affluent urban and rural areas. Exposure to secondhand smoke was lower among women (but not men) where workplace tobacco restrictions was more common and higher regardless of gender in areas where smoking in public places was more commonly observed. Conclusions: Geographical and gender-sensitive targeting of tobacco prevention and control initiatives are warranted. Implications: This study demonstrates spatial patterning of China's 300 million smokers across the country that are different for men and women. Many of the factors that influence tobacco use, such as pro- and counter-advertising, also vary geographically. Workplace smoking restrictions are more commonly reported among individuals with higher educational attainment, but this not does appear to translate into reduced exposure to secondhand smoke. There is a need to intervene in other contexts, especially in restaurants and on public transport. Geographically targeted and gender-sensitive policy is required to advance effective tobacco control and prevention of noncommunicable diseases across all of China.

Cost-effectiveness of a smokeless tobacco control mass media campaign in India.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco control mass media campaigns are cost-effective in reducing tobacco consumption in high-income countries, but similar evidence from low-income countries is limited. An evaluation of a 2009 smokeless tobacco control mass media campaign in India provided an opportunity to test its cost-effectiveness. METHODS: Campaign evaluation data from a nationally representative household survey of 2898 smokeless tobacco users were compared with campaign costs in a standard cost-effectiveness methodology. Costs and effects of the Surgeon campaign were compared with the status quo to calculate the cost per campaign-attributable benefit, including quit attempts, permanent quits and tobacco-related deaths averted. Sensitivity analyses at varied CIs and tobacco-related mortality risk were conducted. RESULTS: The Surgeon campaign was found to be highly cost-effective. It successfully generated 17 259 148 additional quit attempts, 431 479 permanent quits and 120 814 deaths averted. The cost per benefit was US$0.06 per quit attempt, US$2.6 per permanent quit and US$9.2 per death averted. The campaign continued to be cost-effective in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that tobacco control mass media campaigns can be cost-effective and economically justified in low-income and middle-income countries. It holds significant policy implications, calling for sustained investment in evidence-based mass media campaigns as part of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy.

Associations between tobacco control mass media campaign expenditure and smoking prevalence and quitting in England: a time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: It has been established that mass media campaigns can increase smoking cessation rates, but there is little direct evidence estimating associations between government expenditure on tobacco control mass media campaigns and smoking cessation. This study assessed the association over 8 years between mass media expenditure in England and quit attempts, smoking cessation and smoking prevalence. METHODS: Autoregressive integrated moving average modelling with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) was applied to monthly estimates from the Smoking Toolkit Study between June 2008 and February 2016. We assessed the association between the trends in mass media expenditure and (1) quit attempts in the last two months, (2) quit success among those who attempted to quit and (3) smoking prevalence. Analyses were adjusted for trends in weekly spending on tobacco by smokers, tobacco control policies and the use of established aids to cessation. RESULTS: Monthly spending on mass media campaigns ranged from nothing to £2.4 million, with a mean of £465 054. An increase in mass media expenditure of 10% of the monthly average was associated with a 0.51% increase (of the average) in success rates of quit attempts (95% CI 0.10% to 0.91%, p=0.014). No clear association was detected between changes in mass media expenditure and changes in quit attempt prevalence (ß=-0.03, 95% CI -2.05% to 2.00%, p=0.979) or smoking prevalence (ß=-0.03, 95% CI -0.09% to 0.03%, p=0.299). CONCLUSION: Between 2008 and 2016, higher monthly expenditure on tobacco control mass media campaigns in England was associated with higher quit success rates.

Evaluation of a complex healthcare intervention to increase smoking cessation in pregnant women: interrupted time series analysis with economic evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness of a complex intervention to improve referral and treatment of pregnant smokers in routine practice, and to assess the incremental costs to the National Health Service (NHS) per additional woman quitting smoking. DESIGN: Interrupted time series analysis of routine data before and after introducing the intervention, within-study economic evaluation. SETTING: Eight acute NHS hospital trusts and 12 local authority areas in North East England. PARTICIPANTS: 37 726 records of singleton delivery including 10 594 to mothers classified as smoking during pregnancy. INTERVENTIONS: A package of measures implemented in trusts and smoking cessation services, aimed at increasing the proportion of pregnant smokers quitting during pregnancy, comprising skills training for healthcare and smoking cessation staff; universal carbon monoxide monitoring with routine opt-out referral for smoking cessation support; provision of carbon monoxide monitors and supporting materials; and an explicit referral pathway and follow-up protocol. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Referrals to smoking cessation services; probability of quitting smoking during pregnancy; additional costs to health services; incremental cost per additional woman quitting. RESULTS: After introduction of the intervention, the referral rate increased more than twofold (incidence rate ratio=2.47, 95% CI 2.16 to 2.81) and the probability of quitting by delivery increased (adjusted OR=1.81, 95% CI 1.54 to 2.12). The additional cost per delivery was £31 and the incremental cost per additional quit was £952; 31 pregnant women needed to be treated for each additional quitter. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of a system-wide complex healthcare intervention was associated with significant increase in rates of quitting by delivery.