Implementation and evaluation of sepsis surveillance and decision support in medical ICU and emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: To improve the timely diagnosis and treatment of sepsis many institutions implemented automated sepsis alerts. Poor specificity, time delays, and a lack of actionable information lead to limited adoption by bedside clinicians and no change in practice or clinical outcomes. We aimed to compare sepsis care compliance before and after a multi-year implementation of a sepsis surveillance coupled with decision support in a tertiary care center. DESIGN: Single center before and after study. SETTING: Large academic Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU) and Emergency Department (ED). POPULATION: Patients 18 years of age or older admitted to *** Hospital MICU and ED from 09/4/2011 to 05/01/2018 with severe sepsis or septic shock. INTERVENTIONS: Electronic medical record-based sepsis surveillance system augmented by clinical decision support and completion feedback. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were 1950 patients admitted to the MICU with the diagnosis of severe sepsis or septic shock during the study period. The baseline characteristics were similar before (N = 854) and after (N = 1096) implementation of sepsis surveillance. The performance of the alert was modest with a sensitivity of 79.9%, specificity of 76.9%, positive predictive value (PPV) 27.9%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 97.2%. There were 3424 unique alerts and 1131 confirmed sepsis patients after the sniffer implementation. During the study period average care bundle compliance was higher; however after taking into account improvements in compliance leading up to the intervention, there was no association between intervention and improved care bundle compliance (Odds ratio: 1.16; 95% CI: 0.71 to 1.89; p-value 0.554). Similarly, the intervention was not associated with improvement in hospital mortality (Odds ratio: 1.55; 95% CI: 0.95 to 2.52; p-value: 0.078). CONCLUSIONS: A sepsis surveillance system incorporating decision support or completion feedback was not associated with improved sepsis care and patient outcomes.

Surgical Residents at the Forefront of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Perspectives on Redeployment.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led many of us to re-evaluate our approaches to disaster management, reflect on our experiences, and be reminded of the strong resolve for our work. This article details a resident's perspective on redeployment of surgical residents to the COVID-19 frontline setting, using the example of the COVID-19 intensive care unit. Redeployment during a pandemic brings the unique opportunity to collaborate with colleagues on the frontlines and learn alongside one another about the evolving management of this disease. During this ongoing pandemic, it is incumbent upon us as clinicians to work together in a multidisciplinary manner and reflect on ways this pandemic impacts the delivery of patient care.

COVID-19 and Italy: what next?

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has already taken on pandemic proportions, affecting over 100 countries in a matter of weeks. A global response to prepare health systems worldwide is imperative. Although containment measures in China have reduced new cases by more than 90%, this reduction is not the case elsewhere, and Italy has been particularly affected. There is now grave concern regarding the Italian national health system's capacity to effectively respond to the needs of patients who are infected and require intensive care for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. The percentage of patients in intensive care reported daily in Italy between March 1 and March 11, 2020, has consistently been between 9% and 11% of patients who are actively infected. The number of patients infected since Feb 21 in Italy closely follows an exponential trend. If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be needed by mid-April, 2020. Our analysis might help political leaders and health authorities to allocate enough resources, including personnel, beds, and intensive care facilities, to manage the situation in the next few days and weeks. If the Italian outbreak follows a similar trend as in Hubei province, China, the number of newly infected patients could start to decrease within 3-4 days, departing from the exponential trend. However, this cannot currently be predicted because of differences between social distancing measures and the capacity to quickly build dedicated facilities in China.

Allocation of Respirators in the Coronavirus Crisis in Israel: An Ethical Analysis and A Scheme for Triage.

BACKGROUND: This focus article is a theoretical reflection on the ethics of allocating respirators to patients in circumstances of shortage, especially during the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Israel. In this article, respirators are placeholders for similar life-saving modalities in short supply, such as extracorporeal membrane oxygenation machines and intensive care unit beds. In the article, I propose a system of triage for circumstances of scarcity of respirators. The system separates the hopeless from the curable, granting every treatable person a real chance of cure. The scarcity situation eliminates excesses of medicine, and then allocates respirators by a single scale, combining an evidence-based scoring system with risk-proportionate lottery. The triage proposed embodies continuity and consistency with the healthcare practices in ordinary times. Yet, I suggest two regulatory modifications: one in relation to expediting review of novel and makeshift solutions and the second in relation to mandatory retrospective research on all relevant medical data and standard (as opposed to experimental) interventions that are influenced by the triage.

Urgent Peritoneal Dialysis in Patients With COVID-19 and Acute Kidney Injury: A Single-Center Experience in a Time of Crisis in the United States.

At Montefiore Medical Center in The Bronx, NY, the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was admitted on March 11, 2020. At the height of the pandemic, there were 855 patients with COVID-19 admitted on April 13, 2020. Due to high demand for dialysis and shortages of staff and supplies, we started an urgent peritoneal dialysis (PD) program. From April 1 to April 22, a total of 30 patients were started on PD. Of those 30 patients, 14 died during their hospitalization, 8 were discharged, and 8 were still hospitalized as of May 14, 2020. Although the PD program was successful in its ability to provide much-needed kidney replacement therapy when hemodialysis was not available, challenges to delivering adequate PD dosage included difficulties providing nurse training and availability of supplies. Providing adequate clearance and ultrafiltration for patients in intensive care units was especially difficult due to the high prevalence of a hypercatabolic state, volume overload, and prone positioning. PD was more easily performed in non-critically ill patients outside the intensive care unit. Despite these challenges, we demonstrate that urgent PD is a feasible alternative to hemodialysis in situations with critical resource shortages.

Estimating Shortages in Capacity to Deliver Continuous Kidney Replacement Therapy During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, New York encountered shortages in continuous kidney replacement therapy (CKRT) capacity for critically ill patients with acute kidney injury stage 3 requiring dialysis. To inform planning for current and future crises, we estimated CKRT demand and capacity during the initial wave of the US COVID-19 pandemic. STUDY DESIGN: We developed mathematical models to project nationwide and statewide CKRT demand and capacity. Data sources included the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model, the Harvard Global Health Institute model, and published literature. SETTING & POPULATION: US patients hospitalized during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (February 6, 2020, to August 4, 2020). INTERVENTION: CKRT. OUTCOMES: CKRT demand and capacity at peak resource use; number of states projected to encounter CKRT shortages. MODEL, PERSPECTIVE, & TIMEFRAME: Health sector perspective with a 6-month time horizon. RESULTS: Under base-case model assumptions, there was a nationwide CKRT capacity of 7,032 machines, an estimated shortage of 1,088 (95% uncertainty interval, 910-1,568) machines, and shortages in 6 states at peak resource use. In sensitivity analyses, varying assumptions around: (1) the number of pre-COVID-19 surplus CKRT machines available and (2) the incidence of acute kidney injury stage 3 requiring dialysis requiring CKRT among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 resulted in projected shortages in 3 to 8 states (933-1,282 machines) and 4 to 8 states (945-1,723 machines), respectively. In the best- and worst-case scenarios, there were shortages in 3 and 26 states (614 and 4,540 machines). LIMITATIONS: Parameter estimates are influenced by assumptions made in the absence of published data for CKRT capacity and by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model's limitations. CONCLUSIONS: Several US states are projected to encounter CKRT shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings, although based on limited data for CKRT demand and capacity, suggest there being value during health care crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic in establishing an inpatient kidney replacement therapy national registry and maintaining a national stockpile of CKRT equipment.

Clearing the surgical backlog caused by COVID-19 in Ontario: a time series modelling study.

BACKGROUND: To mitigate the effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), jurisdictions worldwide ramped down nonemergent surgeries, creating a global surgical backlog. We sought to estimate the size of the nonemergent surgical backlog during COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada, and the time and resources required to clear the backlog. METHODS: We used 6 Ontario or Canadian population administrative sources to obtain data covering part or all of the period between Jan. 1, 2017, and June 13, 2020, on historical volumes and operating room throughput distributions by surgery type and region, and lengths of stay in ward and intensive care unit (ICU) beds. We used time series forecasting, queuing models and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to estimate the size of the backlog and clearance time for a +10% (+1 day per week at 50% capacity) surge scenario. RESULTS: Between Mar. 15 and June 13, 2020, the estimated backlog in Ontario was 148 364 surgeries (95% prediction interval 124 508-174 589), an average weekly increase of 11 413 surgeries. Estimated backlog clearance time is 84 weeks (95% confidence interval [CI] 46-145), with an estimated weekly throughput of 717 patients (95% CI 326-1367) requiring 719 operating room hours (95% CI 431-1038), 265 ward beds (95% CI 87-678) and 9 ICU beds (95% CI 4-20) per week. INTERPRETATION: The magnitude of the surgical backlog from COVID-19 raises serious implications for the recovery phase in Ontario. Our framework for modelling surgical backlog recovery can be adapted to other jurisdictions, using local data to assist with planning.

Incidence and characteristics of pregnancy-related death across ten low- and middle-income geographical regions: secondary analysis of a cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this article is to describe the incidence and characteristics of pregnancy-related death in low- and middle-resource settings, in relation to the availability of key obstetric resources. DESIGN: This is a secondary analysis of a stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING: This trial was undertaken at ten sites across eight low- and middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa, India and Haiti. POPULATION: Institutional-level consent was obtained and all women presenting for maternity care were eligible for inclusion. METHODS: Pregnancy-related deaths were collected prospectively from routine data sources and active case searching. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Pregnancy-related death, place, timing and age of maternal death, and neonatal outcomes in women with this outcome. RESULTS: Over 20 months, in 536 233 deliveries there were 998 maternal deaths (18.6/10 000, range 28/10 000-630/10 000). The leading causes of death were obstetric haemorrhage (36.0%, n = 359), hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (20.6%, n = 206), sepsis (14.1%, n = 141) and other (26.5%, n = 264). Approximately a quarter of deaths occurred prior to delivery (28.4%, n = 283), 35.7% (n = 356) occurred on the day of delivery and 35.9% (n = 359) occurred after delivery. Half of maternal deaths (50.6%; n = 505) occurred in women aged 20-29 years, 10.3% (n = 103) occurred in women aged under 20 years, 34.5% (n = 344) occurred in women aged 30-39 years and 4.6% (n = 46) occurred in women aged ≥40 years. There was no measured association between the availability of key obstetric resources and the rate of pregnancy-related death. CONCLUSIONS: The large variation in the rate of pregnancy-related death, irrespective of resource availability, emphasises that inequality and inequity in health care persists. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Inequality and inequity in pregnancy-related death persists globally, irrespective of resource availability.

Challenges of Treating a Patient With Advanced Prostate Cancer During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

A 78-year-old man had a medical history of hypertension, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease, and metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). He had progressed to first-line therapy for CRPC with abiraterone plus androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) and as second-line therapy he was being treated with docetaxel, with biochemical progression in his last prostate specific antigen measurement. He was admitted to the hospital on April 2020, in the middle of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, because of painful bone lesions and deterioration of renal function.

Preparing your intensive care unit for the COVID-19 pandemic: practical considerations and strategies.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly evolved into a worldwide pandemic. Preparing intensive care units (ICU) is an integral part of any pandemic response. In this review, we discuss the key principles and strategies for ICU preparedness. We also describe our initial outbreak measures and share some of the challenges faced. To achieve sustainable ICU services, we propose the need to 1) prepare and implement rapid identification and isolation protocols, and a surge in ICU bed capacity; (2) provide a sustainable workforce with a focus on infection control; (3) ensure adequate supplies to equip ICUs and protect healthcare workers; and (4) maintain quality clinical management, as well as effective communication.

A case study in model failure? COVID-19 daily deaths and ICU bed utilisation predictions in New York state.

Forecasting models have been influential in shaping decision-making in the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is concern that their predictions may have been misleading. Here, we dissect the predictions made by four models for the daily COVID-19 death counts between March 25 and June 5 in New York state, as well as the predictions of ICU bed utilisation made by the influential IHME model. We evaluated the accuracy of the point estimates and the accuracy of the uncertainty estimates of the model predictions. First, we compared the "ground truth" data sources on daily deaths against which these models were trained. Three different data sources were used by these models, and these had substantial differences in recorded daily death counts. Two additional data sources that we examined also provided different death counts per day. For accuracy of prediction, all models fared very poorly. Only 10.2% of the predictions fell within 10% of their training ground truth, irrespective of distance into the future. For accurate assessment of uncertainty, only one model matched relatively well the nominal 95% coverage, but that model did not start predictions until April 16, thus had no impact on early, major decisions. For ICU bed utilisation, the IHME model was highly inaccurate; the point estimates only started to match ground truth after the pandemic wave had started to wane. We conclude that trustworthy models require trustworthy input data to be trained upon. Moreover, models need to be subjected to prespecified real time performance tests, before their results are provided to policy makers and public health officials.

Surge capacity of intensive care units in case of acute increase in demand caused by COVID-19 in Australia.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the capacity of intensive care units (ICUs) in Australia to respond to the expected increase in demand associated with COVID-19. DESIGN: Analysis of Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) registry data, supplemented by an ICU surge capability survey and veterinary facilities survey (both March 2020). SETTINGS: All Australian ICUs and veterinary facilities. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Baseline numbers of ICU beds, ventilators, dialysis machines, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation machines, intravenous infusion pumps, and staff (senior medical staff, registered nurses); incremental capability to increase capacity (surge) by increasing ICU bed numbers; ventilator-to-bed ratios; number of ventilators in veterinary facilities. RESULTS: The 191 ICUs in Australia provide 2378 intensive care beds during baseline activity (9.3 ICU beds per 100 000 population). Of the 175 ICUs that responded to the surge survey (with 2228 intensive care beds), a maximal surge would add an additional 4258 intensive care beds (191% increase) and 2631 invasive ventilators (120% increase). This surge would require additional staffing of as many as 4092 senior doctors (245% increase over baseline) and 42 720 registered ICU nurses (269% increase over baseline). An additional 188 ventilators are available in veterinary facilities, including 179 human model ventilators. CONCLUSIONS: The directors of Australian ICUs report that intensive care bed capacity could be near tripled in response to the expected increase in demand caused by COVID-19. But maximal surge in bed numbers could be hampered by a shortfall in invasive ventilators and would also require a large increase in clinician and nursing staff numbers.

Cancellation of Elective Surgery and Intensive Care Unit Capacity in New York State: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis.

BACKGROUND: In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, New York State ordered the suspension of all elective surgeries to increase intensive care unit (ICU) bed capacity. Yet the potential impact of suspending elective surgery on ICU bed capacity is unclear. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 5 years of New York State data on ICU usage. Descriptions of ICU utilization and mechanical ventilation were stratified by admission type (elective surgery, emergent/urgent/trauma surgery, and medical admissions) and by geographic location (New York metropolitan region versus the rest of New York State). Data are presented as absolute numbers and percentages and all adult and pediatric ICU patients were included. RESULTS: Overall, ICU admissions in New York State were seen in 10.1% of all hospitalizations (n = 1,232,986/n = 12,251,617) and remained stable over a 5-year period from 2011 to 2015. Among n = 1,232,986 ICU stays, sources of ICU admission included elective surgery (13.4%, n = 165,365), emergent/urgent admissions/trauma surgery (28.0%, n = 345,094), and medical admissions (58.6%, n = 722,527). Ventilator utilization was seen in 26.3% (n = 323,789/n = 1232,986) of all ICU patients of which 6.4% (n = 20,652), 32.8% (n = 106,186), and 60.8% (n = 196,951) was for patients from elective, emergent, and medical admissions, respectively. New York City holds the majority of ICU bed capacity (70.0%; n = 2496/n = 3566) in New York State. CONCLUSIONS: Patients undergoing elective surgery comprised a small fraction of ICU bed and mechanical ventilation use in New York State. Suspension of elective surgeries in response to the COVID-19 pandemic may thus have a minor impact on ICU capacity when compared to other sources of ICU admission such as emergent/urgent admissions/trauma surgery and medical admissions. More study is needed to better understand how best to maximize ICU capacity for pandemics requiring heavy use of critical care resources.

A snapshot of European neurosurgery December 2019 vs. March 2020: just before and during the Covid-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 or Covid-19), which began as an epidemic in China and spread globally as a pandemic, has necessitated resource management to meet emergency needs of Covid-19 patients and other emergent cases. We have conducted a survey to analyze caseload and measures to adapt indications for a perception of crisis. METHODS: We constructed a questionnaire to survey a snapshot of neurosurgical activity, resources, and indications during 1 week with usual activity in December 2019 and 1 week during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in March 2020. The questionnaire was sent to 34 neurosurgical departments in Europe; 25 departments returned responses within 5 days. RESULTS: We found unexpectedly large differences in resources and indications already before the pandemic. Differences were also large in how much practice and resources changed during the pandemic. Neurosurgical beds and neuro-intensive care beds were significantly decreased from December 2019 to March 2020. The utilization of resources decreased via less demand for care of brain injuries and subarachnoid hemorrhage, postponing surgery and changed surgical indications as a method of rationing resources. Twenty departments (80%) reduced activity extensively, and the same proportion stated that they were no longer able to provide care according to legitimate medical needs. CONCLUSION: Neurosurgical centers responded swiftly and effectively to a sudden decrease of neurosurgical capacity due to relocation of resources to pandemic care. The pandemic led to rationing of neurosurgical care in 80% of responding centers. We saw a relation between resources before the pandemic and ability to uphold neurosurgical services. The observation of extensive differences of available beds provided an opportunity to show how resources that had been restricted already under normal conditions translated to rationing of care that may not be acceptable to the public of seemingly affluent European countries.

Acute Stroke Care in the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic respiratory disease with serious public health risk and has taken the world off-guard with its rapid spread. As the COVID-19 pandemic intensifies, overwhelming the healthcare system and the medical community, current practice for the management of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) will require modification, and guidelines should be relaxed while maintaining high standard quality of care. The aim of these suggestions is to avoid contributing to the rapid spread of COVID-19 as well as to conserve what are likely to be very limited resources (including personnel, intensive care/hospital beds as well as physicians) while maintaining high quality care for patients with AIS. We present our recommendations for the management of acute stroke during the COVID-19 pandemics.

[Expanding ICU facilities in a pandemic scenario]. / La criticidad de las Unidades de Intensivo. Ampliando las Unidades en tiempos de pandemia.

Our country is suffering the effects of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Because the vulnerability of healthcare systems, especially the intensive care areas they can rapidly be overloaded. That challenge the ICUs simultaneously on multiple fronts making urgent to increase the number of beds, without lowering the standards of care. The purpose of this article is to discuss some aspects of the national situation and to provide recommendations on the organizational management of intensive care units such as isolation protocols, surge in ICU bed capacity, ensure adequate supplies, protect and train healthcare workers maintaining quality clinical management.

Availability of Hospital Resources and Specialty Services for Stroke Care in North Carolina.

OBJECTIVES: Effective regionalization of acute stroke care requires assessment and coordination of limited hospital resources. We described the availability of stroke-specific hospital resources (neurology specialty physicians and neuro-intensive care unit [neuro-ICU] bed capacity) for North Carolina overall and by region and population density. We also assessed daily trends in hospital bed availability. METHODS: This statewide descriptive study was conducted with data from the State Medical Asset Resource Tracking Tool (SMARTT), a Web-based system used by North Carolina to track available medical resources within the state. The SMARTT system was queried for stroke-specific physician and bed resources at each North Carolina hospital during a 1-year period (June 2015-May 2016), including daily availability of neuro-ICU beds. We compared hospital resources by geographic region and population density (metropolitan, urban, and rural). RESULTS: Data from 108 acute care hospitals located in 75 of 100 counties in North Carolina were included in the analysis. Fifty-seven percent of hospitals had no neurology specialty physicians. Western and eastern North Carolina had the lowest prevalence of these physicians. Most hospitals (88%) had general ICUs, whereas only 17 hospitals (16%) had neuro-ICUs. Neuro-ICUs were concentrated in metropolitan areas and in central North Carolina. On average, there were 276 general ICU and 27 neuro-ICU beds available statewide each day. Daily neuro-ICU bed availability was lowest in eastern and southeastern regions and during the week compared with weekends. CONCLUSIONS: In North Carolina, stroke-specific hospital subspecialists and resources are not distributed evenly across the state. Daily bed availability, particularly in neuro-ICUs, is lacking in rural areas and noncentral regions and appears to decrease on weekdays. Regionalization of stroke care needs to consider the geographic distribution and daily variability of hospital resources.

Advance Directive Utilization Is Associated with Less Aggressive End-of-Life Care in Patients Undergoing Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation.

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, making advance care planning (ACP) and management especially important in this patient population. A paucity of data exists on the utilization of ACP among allogeneic HCT recipients and the relationship between ACP and intensity of healthcare utilization in these patients. We performed a retrospective review of patients receiving allogeneic HCT at our institution from 2008 to 2015 who had subsequently died after HCT. Documentation and timing of advance directive (AD) completion were abstracted from the electronic medical record. Outcomes of interest included use of intensive care unit (ICU) level of care at any time point after HCT, within 30 days of death, and within 14 days of death; use of mechanical ventilation at any time after HCT; and location of death. Univariate logistic regression was performed to explore associations between AD completion and each outcome. Of the 1031 patients who received allogeneic HCT during the study period, 422 decedents (41%) were included in the analysis. Forty-four percent had AD documentation prior to death. Most patients (69%) indicated that if terminally ill, they did not wish to be subjected to life-prolonging treatment attempts. Race/ethnicity was significantly associated with AD documentation, with non-Hispanic white patients documenting ADs more frequently (51%) compared with Hispanic (22%) or Asian patients (35%; P = .0007). Patients with ADs were less likely to use the ICU during the transplant course (41% for patients with ADs versus 52% of patients without ADs; P = .03) and also were less likely to receive mechanical ventilation at any point after transplantation (21% versus 37%, P < .001). AD documentation was also associated with decreased ICU use at the end of life; relative to patients without ADs, patients with ADs were more likely to die at home or in hospital as opposed to in the ICU (odds ratio, .44; 95% confidence interval, .27 to .72). ACP remains underused in allogeneic HCT. Adoption of a systematic practice to standardize AD documentation as part of allogeneic HCT planning has the potential to significantly reduce ICU use and mechanical ventilation while improving quality of care at end of life in HCT recipients.