A regression approach for estimating multiday adverse health effects of PM10 when daily PM10 data are unavailable.

ABSTRACT

The authors propose a regression-based approach for obtaining multiday estimates of the adverse health effects of ambient particulate matter less than 10 microm in diameter (PM(10)) when daily PM(10) time-series data are unavailable. This situation is common in the United States, because most US cities take PM(10) measurements every 6 days. Current evidence suggests that adverse effects of PM(10) are not concentrated on a single day but rather are spread out over multiple days, so the unavailability of daily PM(10) data presents a problem for the estimation of these effects. The proposed model estimates weights that are used to construct a linear combination of single-lag PM(10) effect estimates obtained from the available PM(10) data. It is shown that this new approach provides estimates of the effect of PM(10) on mortality that have less bias and mean squared error than currently available methods. Application of this method to the US cities contained in the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study database produces an estimated national average effect of PM(10) on nonaccidental mortality in persons over age 65 years, corresponding to a 0.32% increase per 10-microg/m(3) increment in PM(10). The estimated effects for cardiorespiratory mortality and other mortality are 0.34% and 0.22%, respectively.