The Potential Global Distribution and Voltinism of the Japanese Beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) Under Current and Future Climates.
J Insect Sci
; 19(2)2019 Mar 01.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30900722
ABSTRACT
Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica (Newman), is a severe invasive insect pest of turf, landscapes, and horticultural crops. It has successfully colonized much of the United States and has recently established in mainland Europe. The distribution and voltinism of P. japonica will undoubtedly change as a consequence of climate change, posing additional challenges to the management of this species. To assess these challenges, a process-oriented bioclimatic niche model for P. japonica was developed to examine its potential global distribution under current (1981-2010) and projected climatic conditions (2040-2059) using one emission scenario (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5) and two global climate models, ACCESS1-0 and CNRM-CM5. Under current climatic conditions, the bioclimatic niche model agreed well with all credible distribution data. Model projections indicate a strong possibility of further range expansion throughout mainland Europe under both current and future climates. In North America, projected increases in temperature would enable northward range expansion across Canada while simultaneously shifting southern range limits in the United States. In Europe, the suitable range for P. japonica would increase by 23% by midcentury, especially across portions of the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Scandinavia. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, cumulative growing degree-days increased, thereby reducing the probability of biannual life cycles in northern latitudes where they can occur, including Hokkaido, Japan, northeastern portions of the United States, and southern Ontario, Canada. The results of this study highlight several regions of increasing and emerging risk from P. japonica that should be considered routinely in ongoing biosecurity and pest management surveys.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Escarabajos
/
Cambio Climático
/
Especies Introducidas
/
Distribución Animal
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Animals
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Insect Sci
Asunto de la revista:
BIOLOGIA
Año:
2019
Tipo del documento:
Article