CD4 Trajectory Models and Onset of Non-AIDS-Defining Anal Genital Warts, Precancer, and Cancer in People Living With HIV Infection-1.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: It is unclear how the characteristics of CD4 counts predict non-AIDS-defining human papillomavirus-related anogenital warts (AGWs) and anal high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions/cancer (HSIL) in people living with HIV infection-1 (PLWH). We compared the associations between 3 CD4 counts measures and these disease outcomes in the study. METHODS: Retrospective sociobehavioral and clinical data from electronic health records of 4803 PLWH from 2006 to 2018 were included. Three different measurements of CD4 counts-(a) nadir, (b) median, and (c) trajectory-were estimated. Six CD4 trajectory groups were constructed using the group-based trajectory modeling from all patients older than 18 years with ≥3 clinical visits. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the associations with AGW and HSIL, separately. RESULTS: A total of 408 AGW, 102 anal HSIL (43 HSIL, 59 cancer), 4 penile cancer, and 15 vaginal cancer cases were observed. Median CD4 (<200 cell/µL) was associated with AGW (odds ratio [OR], 2.2 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.6-3.0]), and anal HSIL (OR, 2.7 [95% CI, 1.5-5.0]; each, P < 0.001). Low nadir CD4 (<200 cell/µL) was associated with AGW (OR, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.3-2.6]) and anal HSIL (OR, 2.4 [95% CI, 1.2-4.7]; each, P ≤ 0.001). Different patterns (declining and sustained low CD4 counts) of CD4 trajectories showed the strongest associations with onset of both AGW (OR, 1.8-3.1) and HSIL (OR, 2.7-6.7). CONCLUSIONS: People living with HIV infection-1 with the same median CD4 could have very different CD4 trajectories, implying different dynamics of immune status. CD4 trajectory could be a better predictor of incident AGW and HSIL among PLWH.