The transmissibility of hepatitis C virus: a modelling study in Xiamen City, China.
Epidemiol Infect
; 148: e291, 2020 11 25.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33234178
ABSTRACT
This study aimed at estimating the transmissibility of hepatitis C. The data for hepatitis C cases were collected in six districts in Xiamen City, China from 2004 to 2018. A population-mixed susceptible-infectious-chronic-recovered (SICR) model was used to fit the data and the parameters of the model were calculated. The basic reproduction number (R0) and the number of newly transmitted cases by a primary case per month (MNI) were adopted to quantitatively assess the transmissibility of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Eleven curve estimation models were employed to predict the trends of R0 and MNI in the city. The SICR model fits the reported HCV data well (P < 0.01). The median R0 of each district in Xiamen is 0.4059. R0 follows the cubic model curve, the compound curve and the power function curve. The median MNI of each district in Xiamen is 0.0020. MNI follows the cubic model curve, the compound curve and the power function curve. The transmissibility of HCV follows a decreasing trend, which reveals that under the current policy for prevention and control, there would be a high feasibility to eliminate the transmission of HCV in the city.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Hepatitis C
/
Hepacivirus
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudio:
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Epidemiol Infect
Asunto de la revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
/
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
Año:
2020
Tipo del documento:
Article