Baseline Hepatitis B Virus Surface Antigen Titers in Childhood Predict the Risk of Advanced Liver Fibrosis in Adulthood.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (HBsAg) is a marker of both HBV covalently closed circular DNA and integrated HBV genome, whereas the HBV core-related antigen (HBcrAg) indicates the transcriptional activity of covalently closed circular DNA. This study examined the relationship between HBsAg and HBcrAg titers in childhood and advanced fibrosis in adulthood. METHODS: We recruited 214 initially hepatitis B e antigen-positive chronic HBV-infected patients who were followed for a total of 6371 person-years. None of the patients were co-infected with hepatitis C or D virus. Serum HBsAg and HBcrAg titers were assessed at 10 and 15 years of age. Transient elastography was performed at a mean final age of 38.21 years to identify advanced fibrosis. RESULTS: Patients with advanced fibrosis in adulthood had a higher rate of genotype C HBV infection and a higher HBsAg titer at 10 and 15 years of age (P = .003, P = .03, and P = .005, respectively). The HBcrAg titer was not correlated with advanced fibrosis (P > .05). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that HBsAg cutoffs of >4.23 and >4.44 log10 IU/mL at 10 and 15 years of age, respectively, best predicted advanced fibrosis in the fourth decade of life (P = .001 and P < .001, respectively). In a multivariate analysis, both an HBsAg titer >4.44 log10 IU/mL at 15 years of age and HBV genotype C were predictors of advanced fibrosis (odds ratios, 15.43 and 4.77; P = .01 and P = .02, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: HBsAg titers in childhood predict the progression to liver fibrosis in adulthood.