The Origins and Risk Factors for Serotype-2 Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Emergences in Africa During 2016-2019.
J Infect Dis
; 228(1): 80-88, 2023 06 28.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36630295
ABSTRACT
Serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) can revert to regain wild-type neurovirulence and spread to cause emergences of vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2). After its global withdrawal from routine immunization in 2016, outbreak response use has created a cycle of VDPV2 emergences that threaten eradication. We implemented a hierarchical model based on VP1 region genetic divergence, time, and location to attribute emergences to campaigns and identify risk factors. We found that a 10 percentage point increase in population immunity in children younger than 5 years at the campaign time and location corresponds to a 18.0% decrease (95% credible interval [CrI], 6.3%-28%) in per-campaign relative risk, and that campaign size is associated with emergence risk (relative risk scaling with population size to a power of 0.80; 95% CrI, .50-1.10). Our results imply how Sabin OPV2 can be used alongside the genetically stable but supply-limited novel OPV2 (listed for emergency use in November 2020) to minimize emergence risk.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Poliomielitis
/
Vacuna Antipolio Oral
/
Poliovirus
Tipo de estudio:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Child
/
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
Africa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Infect Dis
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Reino Unido