Quantifying the spatial spillover effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic risk.
Int J Health Geogr
; 22(1): 13, 2023 06 07.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37286988
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented in one place can affect neighboring regions by influencing people's behavior. However, existing epidemic models for NPIs evaluation rarely consider such spatial spillover effects, which may lead to a biased assessment of policy effects.METHODS:
Using the US state-level mobility and policy data from January 6 to August 2, 2020, we develop a quantitative framework that includes both a panel spatial econometric model and an S-SEIR (Spillover-Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) model to quantify the spatial spillover effects of NPIs on human mobility and COVID-19 transmission.RESULTS:
The spatial spillover effects of NPIs explain [Formula see text] [[Formula see text] credible interval 52.8-[Formula see text]] of national cumulative confirmed cases, suggesting that the presence of the spillover effect significantly enhances the NPI influence. Simulations based on the S-SEIR model further show that increasing interventions in only a few states with larger intrastate human mobility intensity significantly reduce the cases nationwide. These region-based interventions also can carry over to interstate lockdowns.CONCLUSIONS:
Our study provides a framework for evaluating and comparing the effectiveness of different intervention strategies conditional on NPI spillovers, and calls for collaboration from different regions.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Pandemias
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Etiology_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Int J Health Geogr
Asunto de la revista:
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
/
SAUDE PUBLICA
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
China