The Association of County-level Prostate-specific Antigen Screening with Metastatic Prostate Cancer and Prostate Cancer Mortality.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: There exists ongoing debate about the benefits and harms of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer. This study sought to evaluate the association of county-level PSA screening rates with county-level incidence of metastatic prostate cancer and prostate cancer mortality in the USA. METHODS: This ecological study used data from the 2004-2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) to build a multilevel mixed-effect model with poststratification using US Census data to estimate county-level PSA screening rates for all 3143 US counties adjusted for age, race, ethnicity, and county-level poverty rates. The exposure of interest was average county-level PSA screening rate from 2004 to 2012, defined as the proportion of men aged 40-79 yr who underwent PSA screening within the prior 2 yr. The primary outcomes were county-level age-adjusted incidence of regional/distant prostate cancer during 2015-2019 and age-adjusted prostate cancer mortality during 2016-2020. KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS: A total of 416 221 male BRFSS respondents aged 40-79 yr met the inclusion criteria and were used in the multilevel mixed-effect model. The model was poststratified using 63.4 million men aged 40-79 yr from all 3143 counties in the 2010 Decennial Census. County-level estimated PSA screening rates exhibited geographic variability and were pooled at the state level for internal validation with direct BRFSS state-level estimates, showing a strong correlation with Pearson correlation coefficients 0.77-0.90. A 10% higher county-level probability of PSA screening in 2004-2012 was associated with a 14% lower county-level incidence of regional/distant prostate cancer in 2015-2019 (rate ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85-0.87, p < 0.001) and 10% lower county-level prostate cancer mortality in 2016-2020 (rate ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.89-0.91, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS In this population-based ecological study of all US counties, higher PSA screening rates were associated with a lower incidence of regional/distant prostate cancer and lower prostate cancer mortality at extended follow-up. PATIENT SUMMARY: US counties with higher rates of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening had significantly lower rates of metastatic prostate cancer and prostate cancer mortality in subsequent years. These data may inform shared decision-making regarding PSA screening for prostate cancer.