Hepatic artery diameter predicts bleeding risk after gastroesophageal varices treatment: a contrast-enhanced CT study.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Portal hypertension leads to hepatic artery dilatation and a higher risk of bleeding. We tried to identify the bleeding risk after gastroesophageal varices (GOV) treatment using hepatic artery diameter of contrast-enhanced CT. METHODS: Retrospective retrieval of 258 patients with cirrhosis who underwent contrast-enhanced CT from January 2022 to May 2023 and endoscopy within one month thereafter at Hainan Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University. Cirrhotic patients before GOV treatment were used as the test cohort (n = 199), and cirrhotic patients after GOV treatment were used as the validation cohort (n = 59). The grading and bleeding risk was classified according to the endoscopic findings. Arterial-phase images of contrast-enhanced CT were used for coronal reconstruction, and the midpoint diameter of the hepatic artery was measured on coronal images. The optimal cutoff value for identifying bleeding risk was analyzed and calculated in the test cohort, and its diagnostic performance was evaluated in the validation cohort. RESULTS: In the test cohort, hepatic artery diameters were significantly higher in high-risk GOV than in low-risk GOV [4.69 (4.31, 5.56) vs. 3.10 (2.59, 3.77), P < 0.001]. With a hepatic artery diameter cutoff value of 4.06 mm, the optimal area under the operating characteristic curve was 0.940 (95% confidence interval 0.908-0.972), with a sensitivity of 0.887, a specificity of 0.892, a positive predictive value of 0.904, and a negative predictive value of 0.874 for identifying bleeding risk in the test cohort, while in the validation cohort, the sensitivity was 0.885, specificity was 0.939, positive predictive value was 0.920, and negative predictive value was 0.912. CONCLUSION: Hepatic artery diameter has high diagnostic performance in identifying bleeding risk after GOV treatment.