Short-term prognosis in critically ill patients with liver cirrhosis: an evaluation of a new scoring system.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) has been found to be high. This study was performed to assess the physiological and laboratory parameters which are able to identify on ICU admission the cirrhotic patients who are most likely to die. DESIGN: Prospective clinical trial. METHODS: Two groups of patients were analysed. Group A consisted of 196 consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted to our medical ICU for various reasons. For the detection of independent outcome predictors, we used a multiple logistic regression model. Based on these variables, the 'intensive care cirrhosis outcome (ICCO) score' was calculated. The ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors was determined by receiver operating characteristic curves, and the area under the curve was calculated. Group B consisted of 70 consecutive cirrhotic patients for prospective validation of the ICCO score. RESULTS: Applying multiple logistic regression analysis, bilirubin, cholesterol, creatinine clearance and lactate were found to be independently associated with the hospital mortality. The ICCO score was 0.3707 + (0.0773 x bilirubin (mg/dl)) - (0.00849 x cholesterol (mg/dl)) -(0.0155 x creatinine clearance (ml/min)) + (0.1351 x lactate (mmol/l)), giving an area under a receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.9. Increasing score values were associated with an increase in mortality. All patients with an ICCO score > +2.6 died. CONCLUSIONS: Application of the ICCO score is rapid and available at the patient's bedside, and its application is simple and reproducible. In cirrhotic patients, the ICCO score has a high ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors. The ICCO score may facilitate estimation on ICU admission of the prognosis of critically ill cirrhotic patients.