The MUSIC Risk score: a simple method for predicting mortality in ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure.
Eur Heart J
; 30(9): 1088-96, 2009 May.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-19240065
ABSTRACT
AIMS:
The prognosis of chronic heart failure (CHF) is extremely variable, although generally poor. The purpose of this study was to develop prognostic models for CHF patients. METHODS ANDRESULTS:
A cohort of 992 consecutive ambulatory CHF patients was prospectively followed for a median of 44 months. Multivariable Cox models were developed to predict all-cause mortality (n = 267), cardiac mortality (primary end-point, n = 213), pump-failure death (n = 123), and sudden death (n = 90). The four final models included several combinations of the same 10 independent predictors prior atherosclerotic vascular event, left atrial size >26 mm/m(2), ejection fraction < or =35%, atrial fibrillation, left bundle-branch block or intraventricular conduction delay, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia and frequent ventricular premature beats, estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), hyponatremia < or =138 mEq/L, NT-proBNP >1.000 ng/L, and troponin-positive. On the basis of Cox models, the MUSIC Risk scores were calculated. A cardiac mortality score >20 points identified a high-risk subgroup with a four-fold cardiac mortality risk.CONCLUSION:
A simple score with a limited number of non-invasive variables successfully predicted cardiac mortality in a real-life cohort of CHF patients. The use of this model in clinical practice identifies a subgroup of high-risk patients that should be closely managed.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Bloqueio de Ramo
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Insuficiência Cardíaca
Tipo de estudo:
Clinical_trials
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Etiology_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
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Adult
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Aged
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Aged80
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Eur Heart J
Ano de publicação:
2009
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Espanha