"Metroticket" predictor for assessing liver transplantation to treat hepatocellular carcinoma: a single-center analysis in mainland China.

ABSTRACT

AIM: To validate the "Metroticket" predictor using a large cohort of liver transplantation (LT) patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in China. METHODS: In total, 230 cases of LT for HCC treatment at our center, from July 2000 to August 2008, were included in the present study. The predicted 1-, 3- and 5-year post-LT survival rates were calculated using the Metroticket model (http//89.96.76.14/metroticket/calculator/). The predicted and observed long-term survival rates were then compared and analyzed. RESULTS: The predicted survival rates for all 230 cases, as calculated by the Metroticket model, were 64.7% and 56.2% at 3 and 5 years, respectively, and the observed survival rates for these patients were 71.3% and 57.8%, respectively. For the 23 cases with macrovascular invasion, the predicted 5-year survival rate was 43.5%, whereas the observed 5-year survival rate was only 8.7%. For the 42 cases with microvascular invasion but an absence of macrovascular invasion, the predicted 5-year survival rate was 44.9%, and the observed 5-year survival rate was 50%. For the remaining 165 patients without any vascular invasion, the predicted 5-year survival rate was 65.8%, and the observed 5-year survival rate was 66.7%. CONCLUSION: The Metroticket model can be used to accurately predict survival in HCC-related LT cases with an absence of macrovascular invasion.