Predictive Factors for HIV Seroconversion Among Individuals Attending a Specialized Center After an HIV Risk Exposure: A Case-Control Study.
AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses
; 32(10-11): 1016-1021, 2016.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-27457508
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To better target our current prevention strategies, we assessed factors associated with HIV seroconversion in individuals attending a specialized center after a risk exposure. MATERIALS ANDMETHODS:
We studied individuals from an HIV Unit's contact risk cohort at a tertiary care hospital in Barcelona, Spain, between 2003 and 2013 and performed a retrospective matched case-control study. Cases were individuals who seroconverted to HIV after at least 3 months since first follow-up visit for a contracting risk. Controls were HIV-negative individuals from the same cohort. Demographics and behavior variables were studied and compared using a McNemar test assessing factors associated with seroconversion. Univariate analysis and binary logistic regression were performed to develop a model for predicting probability of HIV seroconversion. We also evaluated sensitivity and specificity of our model and an area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was estimated.RESULTS:
Sixty-nine (2.2%) individuals seroconverted after a median (interquartile range) of 24 (9-34) months since last follow-up. Seroconverters were predominantly male (96%) and men who have sex with men (MSM) (94%). No differences were observed regarding risk of exposure. Being MSM [odds ratio (OR) 5.2 (1.4-20.2), p = .01], having a known HIV-positive partner [OR 2.7 (1.2-6.2), p = .02], previous postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) [OR 3.9 (1.0-15.6), p = .05], and having previous sexually transmitted infections (STIs) [OR 4.6 (1.9-10.9), p = .001] were the factors independently associated with HIV seroconversion. The sensitivity and specificity of our model were 64.06% and 73.53%, respectively, and the area under ROC curve was 0.777.DISCUSSION:
HIV seroconversions were observed frequently between individuals attending a specialized center because of a risk exposure. Being MSM, having had previous PEP, an HIV-positive sexual partner, and previous STI were predictive factors for HIV seroconversion. Closer and longer follow-up and/or pre-exposure prophylaxis should be considered to prevent HIV infections in this high-risk population.Palavras-chave
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Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão
/
Soropositividade para HIV
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
/
Evaluation_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
/
Female
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Humans
/
Male
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses
Assunto da revista:
SINDROME DA IMUNODEFICIENCIA ADQUIRIDA (AIDS)
Ano de publicação:
2016
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Espanha