The impact of air pollution on the transmission of pulmonary tuberculosis.
Math Biosci Eng
; 17(4): 4317-4327, 2020 06 19.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32987581
ABSTRACT
In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the air pollution and tuberculosis cases and its prediction in Jiangsu, China by using the time-series analysis method, and find that the seasonal ARIMA(1, 1, 0)×(0, 1, 1)12 model is the preferred model for predicting the TB cases in Jiangsu, China. Furthermore, we evaluate the relationship between AQI, PM2.5, PM10 and the number of TB cases, and find that the prediction accuracy of the ARIMA model is improved by adding monthly PM2.5 with 0-month lag as an external variable, i.e., ARIMA(1, 1, 0)×(0, 1, 1)12+PM2.5. The results show that ARIMAX model can be a useful tool for predicting TB cases in Jiangsu, China, and it can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of TB.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Tuberculose
/
Tuberculose Pulmonar
/
Poluentes Atmosféricos
/
Poluição do Ar
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Math Biosci Eng
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China