A risk algorithm that predicts alcohol use disorders among college students.
Eur Child Adolesc Psychiatry
; 31(7): 1-11, 2022 Jul.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33723648
ABSTRACT
The first year of college may carry especially high risk for onset of alcohol use disorders. We assessed the one-year incidence of alcohol use disorders (AUD) among incoming first-year students, predictors of AUD-incidence, prediction accuracy and population impact. A prospective cohort study of first-year college students (baseline N = 5843; response rate = 51.8%; 1-year follow-up n = 1959; conditional response rate = 41.6%) at a large university in Belgium was conducted. AUD were evaluated with the AUDIT and baseline predictors with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview Screening Scales (CIDI-SC). The one-year incidence of AUD was 3.9% (SE = 0.4). The most important individual-level baseline predictors of AUD incidence were being male (OR = 1.53; 95% CI = 1.12-2.10), a break-up with a romantic partner (OR = 1.67; 95% CI = 1.08-2.59), hazardous drinking (OR = 3.36; 95% CI = 1.31-8.63), and alcohol use characteristics at baseline (ORs between 1.29 and 1.38). Multivariate cross-validated prediction (cross-validated AUC = 0.887) shows that 55.5% of incident AUD cases occurred among the 10% of students at highest predicted risk (20.1% predicted incidence in this highest-risk subgroup). Four out of five students with incident AUD would hypothetically be preventable if baseline hazardous drinking was to be eliminated along with a reduction of one standard deviation in alcohol use characteristics scores, and another 15.0% would potentially be preventable if all 12-month stressful events were eliminated. Screening at college entrance is a promising strategy to identify students at risk of transitioning to more problematic drinking and AUD, thus improving the development and deployment of targeted preventive interventions.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Alcoolismo
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
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Etiology_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Female
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Humans
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Male
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Eur Child Adolesc Psychiatry
Assunto da revista:
PEDIATRIA
/
PSIQUIATRIA
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
México