Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) cooked meat products sliced at retail stores in Greece.

ABSTRACT

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model predicting the listeriosis risk related to the consumption of Ready- To- Eat (RTE) cooked meat products sliced at retail stores in Greece was developed. The probability of illness per serving assessed for 87 products available in the Greek market was found highly related to the nitrite concentration; products having a lower concentration showed a higher risk per serving. The predicted 95th percentiles of the annual listeriosis cases totaled 33 of which 13 cases were <65 years old and 20 cases ≥65 years old. The highest number of cases was predicted for mortadella, smoked turkey, boiled turkey and parizer, which were the most frequently consumed product categories. Two scenarios for assessing potential interventions to reduce the risk were tested setting a use-by date of 14 days (these products have no use-by date based on current European Union legislation) and improving the temperature control during domestic storage. The two scenarios resulted in a decrease of the 95th and 99th percentiles of the total annual cases by 97% and 88%, respectively.