Estimating averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions and deaths by COVID-19 vaccination, Italy, January-September 2021.

ABSTRACT

We assessed the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy, by estimating numbers of averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths between January and September 2021, by age group and geographical macro areas. Timing and speed of vaccination programme implementation varied slightly between geographical areas, particularly for older adults. We estimated that 445,193 (17% of expected; range 331,059-616,054) cases, 79,152 (32%; range 53,209-148,756) hospitalisations, 9,839 ICU admissions (29%; range 6,434-16,276) and 22,067 (38%; range 13,571-48,026) deaths were prevented by vaccination.