Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The high incidence of gallstone recurrence was a major concern for laparoscopic gallbladder-preserving surgery. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery and to establish an individualized nomogram model to predict the risk of gallstone recurrence. METHODS: The clinicopathological and follow-up data of 183 patients who were initially diagnosed with gallstones and treated with gallbladder-preserving surgery at our hospital from January 2012 to January 2019 were retrospectively collected. The independent predictive factors for gallstone recurrence following gallbladder-preserving surgery were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence was constructed based on the selected variables. The C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram model for gallstone recurrence. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, a total of 65 patients experienced gallstone recurrence, and the recurrence rate was 35.5%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the course of gallstones > 2 years [odds ratio (OR) = 2.567, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.270-5.187, P = 0.009], symptomatic gallstones (OR = 2.589, 95% CI 1.059-6.329, P = 0.037), multiple gallstones (OR = 2.436, 95% CI 1.133-5.237, P = 0.023), history of acute cholecystitis (OR = 2.778, 95% CI 1.178-6.549, P = 0.020) and a greasy diet (OR = 2.319, 95% CI 1.186-4.535, P = 0.014) were independent risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery. A nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of gallstones was established based on the above five variables. The results showed that the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.692, suggesting it was valuable to predict gallstone recurrence. Moreover, the calibration curve showed good consistency between the predicted probability and actual probability. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence might help clinicians develop a proper treatment strategy for patients with gallstones. Gallbladder-preserving surgery should be cautiously considered for patients with high recurrence risks.