The Geriatrics at Risk Score (GeRi-Score) for mortality prediction in geriatric patients with proximal femur fracture - a development and validation study from the Registry for Geriatric Trauma (ATR-DGU).
Osteoporos Int
; 34(5): 879-890, 2023 May.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36892634
ABSTRACT
This study developed an easy-to-use mortality prediction tool, which showed an acceptable discrimination and no significant lack of fit. The GeRi-Score was able to predict mortality and could distinguish between mild, moderate and high risk groups. Therefore, the GeRi-Score might have the potential to distribute the intensity of medical care. PURPOSE:
Several mortality-predicting tools for hip fracture patients are available, but all consist of a high number of variables, require a time-consuming evaluation and/or are difficult to calculate. The aim of this study was to develop and validate an easy-to-use score, which depends mostly on routine data.METHODS:
Patients from the Registry for Geriatric Trauma were divided into a development and a validation group. Logistic regression models were used to build a model for in-house mortality and to obtain a score. Candidate models were compared using Akaike information criteria (AIC) and likelihood ratio tests. The quality of the model was tested using the area under the curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.RESULTS:
38,570 patients were included, almost equal distributed to the development and to the validation dataset. The AUC was 0.727 (95% CI 0.711 - 0.742) for the final model, AIC resulted in a significant reduction in deviance compared to the basic model, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed no significant lack of fit (p = 0.07). The GeRi-Score predicted an in-house mortality of 5.3% vs. 5.3% observed mortality in the development dataset and 5.4% vs. 5.7% in the validation dataset. The GeRi-Score was able to distinguish between mild, moderate and high risk groups.CONCLUSIONS:
The GeRi-Score is an easy-to-use mortality-predicting tool with an acceptable discrimination and no significant lack of fit. The GeRi-Score might have the potential to distribute the intensity of perioperative medical care in hip fracture surgery and can be used in quality management programs as benchmark tool.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Fraturas Proximais do Fêmur
/
Fraturas do Quadril
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Aged
/
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Osteoporos Int
Assunto da revista:
METABOLISMO
/
ORTOPEDIA
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Alemanha