Performance of GAP and ILD-GAP models in predicting lung transplant or death in interstitial pneumonia with autoimmune features.
Rheumatology (Oxford)
; 2023 Aug 21.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37603717
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
To assess the ability of two risk prediction models in interstitial lung disease (ILD) to predict death or lung transplantation in a cohort of patients with interstitial pneumonia with autoimmune features (IPAF).METHODS:
We performed a retrospective cohort study of adults with IPAF at an academic medical center. The primary outcome was a composite of lung transplantation or death. We applied the patient data to the previously described GAP and ILD-GAP models to determine the ability of these models to predict the composite outcome. Model discrimination was assessed using the c-index, and model calibration was determined by comparing the incidence ratios of observed versus expected deaths.RESULTS:
Ninety-four patients with IPAF were included. Mean (standard deviation) age was 58 (13.5) years and the majority were female (62%). The majority met serologic and morphologic criteria for IPAF (94% and 91%, respectively). The GAP model had a c-index of 0.664 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.547-0.781), while the ILD-GAP model had a c-index of 0.569 (95% CI 0.440-0.697). In those with GAP stage 1 or GAP stage 2 disease, calibration of the GAP model was satisfactory at 2 and 3 years for the cumulative end point of lung transplantation or death.CONCLUSION:
In patients with IPAF, the GAP model performed well as a predictor of lung transplantation or death at 2 years and 3 years from ILD diagnosis in patients with GAP stage 1 and GAP stage 2 disease.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudo:
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Rheumatology (Oxford)
Assunto da revista:
REUMATOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos