Seasonality of COVID-19 incidence in the United States.
Front Public Health
; 11: 1298593, 2023.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38115849
ABSTRACT
Background:
The surges of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) appeared to follow a repeating pattern of COVID-19 outbreaks regardless of social distancing, mask mandates, and vaccination campaigns.Objectives:
This study aimed to investigate the seasonality of COVID-19 incidence in the United States of America (USA), and to delineate the dominant frequencies of the periodic patterns of the disease.Methods:
We characterized periodicity in COVID-19 incidences over the first three full seasonal years (March 2020 to March 2023) of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. We utilized a spectral analysis approach to find the naturally occurring dominant frequencies of oscillation in the incidence data using a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm.Results:
Our study revealed four dominant peaks in the periodogram the two most dominant peaks show a period of oscillation of 366 days and 146.4 days, while two smaller peaks indicate periods of 183 days and 122 days. The period of 366 days indicates that there is a single COVID-19 outbreak that occurs approximately once every year, which correlates with the dominant outbreak in the early/mid-winter months. The period of 146.4 days indicates approximately 3 peaks per year and matches well with each of the 3 annual outbreaks per year.Conclusion:
Our study revealed the predictable seasonality of COVID-19 outbreaks, which will guide public health preventative efforts to control future outbreaks. However, the methods used in this study cannot predict the amplitudes of the incidences in each outbreak a multifactorial problem that involves complex environmental, social, and viral strain variables.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
COVID-19
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Front Public Health
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos