Response of the cultivation suitability of Pu'er tea (Camellia sinensis var. assamica) to climate conditions and change in China.

ABSTRACT

Crop cultivation suitability plays a vital role in determining the distribution, quality, and production of crop and can be greatly affected by climate change. Therefore, evaluating crop cultivation suitability under climate change and identifying the factors influencing it can optimize crop cultivation layout and improve production and quality. Based on comprehensive datasets including geographical distribution points, climate data, soil characteristics, and topography, our study employed the MaxEnt model to simulate the potential distribution of Pu'er tea (Camellia sinensis var. assamica) cultivation suitability in Yunnan Province from 1961 to 2020. Furthermore, we assessed the consistency between the simulated suitable areas and the actual production of Pu'er tea. The results showed that precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, and average temperature in January were the three dominant environmental variables affecting the cultivation distribution of Pu'er tea. The high suitable areas for Pu'er tea cultivation in Yunnan Province were mainly distributed in the western and southern regions, accounting for 13.89% of the total area of Yunnan Province. The medium suitable areas are mainly distributed in the central and western regions of Yunnan Province, accounting for 20.07% of the total area of Yunnan Province. Over the past 60 years, the unsuitable area for Pu'er tea has increased, while the suitable area has shown a trend of migration to the southwest. Changes in precipitation and temperature were found to be the main drivers of the changes in the distribution of suitable areas for Pu'er tea. We also found a mismatch between the cultivation suitability and the actual production of Pu'er tea. Our study provides an accurate assessment and zoning analysis of the suitability of Pu'er tea cultivation in Yunnan Province, which can help optimize the layout of Pu'er tea cultivation and reduce potential climate risks.