Decomposition, decoupling, and future trends of environmental effects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region: A regional heterogeneity-based analysis.

The green growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration plays a leading and exemplary role in overcoming internal resource restrictions, addressing climate change, and supporting China's high-quality growth. From the standpoint of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, this paper first conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the environmental impact based on combined weighting technique. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model is used to decompose the environmental impact drivers in distinct areas. A decoupling effort index is further constructed to measure the effect of various efforts on the decoupling of economic growth and environmental impact, the improved grey Markov model is applied to predict the future trend of regional decoupling efforts. The results of empirical analysis based on data of the BTH region during 2011-2018 show that: 1) the environmental impact index of Beijing is the lowest followed by Tianjin and Hebei; 2) environmental regulation exerts the most significant impact on reducing environmental pressure in Beijing while technology progress and energy intensity have the most significant effect on easing environmental pressure in Tianjin; 3) strong decoupling efforts have been found in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, however, such effect is more significant in Beijing; 4) Beijing's decoupling state is mostly driven by regulatory effect, intensity effect, and scale effect, while Tianjin and Hebei's decoupling states are primarily driven by improvements in environmental regulation and energy intensity; 5) according to the forecast outcome of the improved grey Markov technique, a state of strong decoupling effort will be maintained in the BTH area by 2025, and the decoupling effort index in Beijing will remain the highest while the index in Hebei will remain the lowest.

Exploring the effect of climate risk on agricultural and food stock prices: Fresh evidence from EMD-Based variable-lag transfer entropy analysis.

Climate has traditionally played an important role in the development of countries, owing to its inherent relationship with agricultural output and pricing. This study explores one such association between the most well-known climate anomaly, the El Niño34 Southern Oscillation, and international commodity prices of agriculture and food indexes. This study addresses the potentially causal effect of El Niño34 on international agricultural and food stock prices. To do so, we develop a novel approach: the empirical mode decomposition variable-lag transfer entropy (EMD-VL transfer entropy) by combining the variable-lag transfer entropy framework and the empirical mode decomposition. The evidence reveals the following major results. First, climate shocks affect global agricultural stock prices in the short-term. Second, significant transfer entropy from El Niño34 to food index appeared at mid- and long-term business cycles. Third, unidirectional causal effect from climate shocks to agricultural and food stock prices is more intense in the short business cycle attesting to the impact of climate shocks on the food market, which is especially visible in the short-term horizon. Finally, our proposed method exceeds the traditional variable-lag transfer entropy by detecting such causal interplay at various business cycles, which is useful for investors and policymakers.

Sustainable biofuel economy: A mapping through bibliometric research.

Biofuels have received a lot of attention as an important source of renewable energy, with number of economic impacts. This study aims to investigate the economic potential of biofuels and then extract core aspects of how biofuels relate to a sustainable economy in order to achieve a sustainable biofuel economy. This study conducts a bibliometric analysis of publications about biofuel economic research covering 2001 to 2022 experimenting with multiple bibliometric tools, such as R Studio, Biblioshiny, and VOSviewer. Findings show that research on biofuels and biofuel production growth are positively correlated. From the analyzed publications, The United States, India, China, and Europe are the largest biofuel markets, with the USA taking the lead in publishing scientific papers, engaging country collaboration on biofuel, and has the highest social impact. Findings also show that the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Sweden, and Spain are more inclined to develop sustainable biofuel economies and energy than other European countries. It also indicates that sustainable biofuel economies are still far behind those of less developed and developing countries. Besides, this study finds that biofuel linked to sustainable economy with poverty reduction, agriculture development, renewable energy production, economic growth, climate change policy, environmental protection, carbon emission reduction, green-house gas emission, land use policy, technological innovations, and development. The findings of this bibliometric research are presented using different clusters, mapping, and statistics. The discussion of this study affirms the good and effective policies for a sustainable biofuel economy.

Pathways to improve energy efficiency under carbon emission constraints in iron and steel industry: Using EBM, NCA and QCA approaches.

Improving environmental performance of energy- and carbon-intensive sectors represented by the iron and steel (IS) industry is of utmost importance to address the challenges of resource depletion and climate change worldwide. This article adopts a global-super-Epsilon-Based Measure (EBM) model with undesirable output for IS energy efficiency estimation, identifies efficiency determinants based on Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework, and analyzes various pathways for efficiency improvement by grouping Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA). Empirical testing using statistical data of the G20 economies during 2010-2020 demonstrates that: 1) energy efficiency in the IS industry in G20 countries has risen amidst fluctuations, with developed countries performing more efficiently than developing countries; 2) individual factors do not constitute a compulsory condition to achieve high energy efficiency in the IS industry; 3) three different paths to achieve high energy performance are found, that is, technology-structure driven, regulation-economy-technology driven, and regulation-technology-production driven. Heterogenous policy recommendations for efficiency gains in the IS sector of different countries with divergent features are proposed accordingly.

COVID-19 and stock returns: Evidence from the Markov switching dependence approach.

This paper aims to investigate the regime-switching and time-varying dependence between the COVID-19 pandemic and the US stock markets using a Markov-switching framework. It makes two contributions to the empirical literature by showing that: (a) the variations of the daily reported COVID-19 cases and cumulative COVID-19 deaths induced asymmetric lower (left) and upper (right) tail dependence with the stock markets, and its left and right tail dependence exhibited significant time-varying trends; and (b) the left and right tail dependence between the stock markets and the pandemic exhibited significant regime-switching behaviours, with its switching probabilities in the higher tail dependence stage all being greater than in the lower tail dependence stage after 1 December 2019. Moreover, given that there is concurrent but significant financial market reaction to any unexpected emergence of a transmittable respirational disease or a natural calamity, the outcomes have some vital implications to market players and policymakers.

Effect of twitter investor engagement on cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study aims to examine whether the prices and returns of two cryptocurrencies, Dogecoin and Ethereum, are affected by Twitter engagement following the COVID-19 pandemic. We use the autoregressive integrated moving average with explanatory variables model to integrate the effects of investor attention and engagement on Dogecoin and Ethereum returns using data from December 31, 2020, to May 12, 2021. The results provide evidence supporting the hypothesis of a strong effect of Twitter investor engagement on Dogecoin returns; however, no potential impact is identified for Ethereum. These findings add to the growing evidence regarding the effect of social media on the cryptocurrency market and have useful implications for investors and corporate investment managers concerning investment decisions and trading strategies.

An interpretable system for predicting the impact of COVID-19 government interventions on stock market sectors.

Evaluating and understanding the financial impacts of COVID-19 has emerged as an urgent research agenda. Nevertheless, the impacts of government interventions on stock markets remain poorly understood. This study explores, for the first time, the impact of COVID-19 related government intervention policies on different stock market sectors using explainable machine learning-based prediction models. The empirical findings suggest that the LightGBM model provides excellent prediction accuracy while preserving computationally efficient and easy explainability of the model. We also find that COVID-19 government interventions are better predictors of stock market volatility than stock market returns. We further show that the observed effects of government intervention on the volatility and returns of ten stock market sectors are heterogeneous and asymmetrical. Our findings have important implications for policymakers and investors in terms of promoting balance and sustaining prosperity across industry sectors through government interventions.

Fraud Detection in Mobile Payment Systems using an XGBoost-based Framework.

Mobile payment systems are becoming more popular due to the increase in the number of smartphones, which, in turn, attracts the interest of fraudsters. Extant research has therefore developed various fraud detection methods using supervised machine learning. However, sufficient labeled data are rarely available and their detection performance is negatively affected by the extreme class imbalance in financial fraud data. The purpose of this study is to propose an XGBoost-based fraud detection framework while considering the financial consequences of fraud detection systems. The framework was empirically validated on a large dataset of more than 6 million mobile transactions. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, we conducted a comparative evaluation of existing machine learning methods designed for modeling imbalanced data and outlier detection. The results suggest that in terms of standard classification measures, the proposed semi-supervised ensemble model integrating multiple unsupervised outlier detection algorithms and an XGBoost classifier achieves the best results, while the highest cost savings can be achieved by combining random under-sampling and XGBoost methods. This study has therefore financial implications for organizations to make appropriate decisions regarding the implementation of effective fraud detection systems.

Dynamic nonlinear connectedness between the green bonds, clean energy, and stock price: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This paper uses weekly data from July 01, 2011 to July 09, 2021 to examine the dynamic nonlinear connectedness between the green bonds, clean energy, and stock price around the COVID-19 outbreak in the global markets. By building a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model (TVP-VAR), the comparison analyses of pre- and during the COVID-19 sample groups verify the existence of nonlinear and dynamic correlation among the three variables. First, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the simultaneous impacts of clean energy on stock price increased over time. Second, the results of impulse responses at different horizons indicate that green bonds lead to a short-term increase of clean energy, and it exerts an increasingly positive impacts after the COVID-19 outbreak. The COVID-19 has weakened the negative impacts of green bonds on stock price in the medium term. Finally, through the analysis of impulse responses at different points, we find that stock prices will rise when clean energy is subjected to a positive shock, and this positive effect is stronger during economic recovery period than in the other two periods.

A novel framework of credit risk feature selection for SMEs during industry 4.0.

With the development of industry 4.0, the credit data of SMEs are characterized by a large volume, high speed, diversity and low-value density. How to select the key features that affect the credit risk from the high-dimensional data has become the critical point to accurately measure the credit risk of SMEs and alleviate their financing constraints. In doing so, this paper proposes a credit risk feature selection approach that integrates the binary opposite whale optimization algorithm (BOWOA) and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic. Furthermore, we use seven machine learning classifiers and three discriminant methods to verify the robustness of the proposed model by using three actual bank data from SMEs. The empirical results show that although no one artificial intelligence credit evaluation method is universal for different SMEs' credit data, the performance of the BOWOA-KS model proposed in this paper is better than other methods if the number of indicators in the optimal subset of indicators and the prediction performance of the classifier are considered simultaneously. By providing a high-dimensional data feature selection method and improving the predictive performance of credit risk, it could help SMEs focus on the factors that will allow them to improve their creditworthiness and more easily access loans from financial institutions. Moreover, it will also help government agencies and policymakers develop policies to help SMEs reduce their credit risks.

A novel customer churn prediction model for the telecommunication industry using data transformation methods and feature selection.

Customer churn is one of the most critical issues faced by the telecommunication industry (TCI). Researchers and analysts leverage customer relationship management (CRM) data through the use of various machine learning models and data transformation methods to identify the customers who are likely to churn. While several studies have been conducted in the customer churn prediction (CCP) context in TCI, a review of performance of the various models stemming from these studies show a clear room for improvement. Therefore, to improve the accuracy of customer churn prediction in the telecommunication industry, we have investigated several machine learning models, as well as, data transformation methods. To optimize the prediction models, feature selection has been performed using univariate technique and the best hyperparameters have been selected using the grid search method. Subsequently, experiments have been conducted on several publicly available TCI datasets to assess the performance of our models in terms of the widely used evaluation metrics, such as AUC, precision, recall, and F-measure. Through a rigorous experimental study, we have demonstrated the benefit of applying data transformation methods as well as feature selection while training an optimized CCP model. Our proposed technique improved the prediction performance by up to 26.2% and 17% in terms of AUC and F-measure, respectively.

Deep learning-based exchange rate prediction during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study proposes an ensemble deep learning approach that integrates Bagging Ridge (BR) regression with Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) neural networks used as base regressors to become a Bi-LSTM BR approach. Bi-LSTM BR was used to predict the exchange rates of 21 currencies against the USD during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model, we compared the prediction performance with several more traditional machine learning algorithms, such as the regression tree, support vector regression, and random forest regression, and deep learning-based algorithms such as LSTM and Bi-LSTM. Our proposed ensemble deep learning approach outperformed the compared models in forecasting exchange rates in terms of prediction error. However, the performance of the model significantly varied during non-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods across currencies, indicating the essential role of prediction models in periods of highly volatile foreign currency markets. By providing an improved prediction performance and identifying the most seriously affected currencies, this study is beneficial for foreign exchange traders and other stakeholders in that it offers opportunities for potential trading profitability and for reducing the impact of increased currency risk during the pandemic.