Reassessing the Functional Significance of Blood Oxygen Level Dependent Signal Variability.

BOLD signal variability (SDBOLD) has emerged as a unique measure of the adaptive properties of neural systems that facilitate fast, stable responding, based on claims that SDBOLD is independent of mean BOLD signal (meanBOLD) and is a powerful predictor of behavioral performance. We challenge these two claims. First, the apparent independence of SDBOLD and meanBOLD may reflect the presence of deactivations; we hypothesize that although SDBOLD may not be related to raw meanBOLD, it will be linearly related to "absolute" meanBOLD. Second, the observed relationship between SDBOLD and performance may be an artifact of using fixed-length trials longer than RTs. Such designs provide opportunities to toggle between on- and off-task states, and fast responders likely engage in more frequent state-switching, thereby artificially elevating SDBOLD. We hypothesize that SDBOLD will be higher and more strongly related to performance when using such fixed-length trials relative to self-paced trials that terminate upon a response. We test these two hypotheses in an fMRI study using blocks of fixed-length or self-paced trials. Results confirmed both hypotheses: (1) SDBOLD was robustly related with absolute meanBOLD, and (2) toggling between on- and off-task states during fixed-length trials reliably contributed to SDBOLD. Together, these findings suggest that a reappraisal of the functional significance of SDBOLD as a unique marker of cognitive performance is warranted.

Predictors of Change in Vaccination Decisions Among the Vaccine Hesitant: Examining the Roles of Age and Intolerance of Uncertainty.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine hesitancy and resistance pose significant threats to controlling pandemics and preventing infectious diseases. In a group of individuals unvaccinated against the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (COVID-19), we investigated how age, intolerance of uncertainty (IU), and their interaction affected the likelihood of having changed one's vaccination decision a year later. We hypothesized that higher IU would increase the likelihood of becoming vaccinated, particularly among individuals of younger age. We predicted that this effect would remain significant, even after controlling for delay discounting and trust in science. PURPOSE: The goal of this research was to understand the factors influencing changes in vaccination decisions among the vaccine hesitant. METHODS: In a larger longitudinal study, ~7,500 participants from Prolific.co completed demographic and vaccination status questions, a delay discounting task, and the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale in June-August 2021. Approximately 3,200 participants completed a follow-up survey in July-August 2022, answering questions about vaccination status, reasons for vaccination decision, and trust in science. We analyzed data from 251 participants who initially had no intention of getting vaccinated and completed the follow-up survey; 38% reported becoming vaccinated in the intervening year. RESULTS: Data were analyzed using multilevel logistic regression. Over and above other factors related to vaccination decisions (delay discounting, trust in science), younger participants were more likely to change their decision and become vaccinated a year later, especially if they had higher IU, confirming our predictions. Primary reasons for becoming vaccinated were necessity and seeking protection against the virus. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the complex interplay between age, uncertainty, and vaccination decisions, and inform health policies by suggesting the need for tailoring interventions to specific concerns in different age groups.

Vaccine hesitancy and resistance pose significant threats to controlling pandemics and preventing infectious diseases. It is important to understand the factors that influence whether or not unvaccinated individuals change their mind and get vaccinated. We investigated how age and one's intolerance of uncertainty predicted the likelihood of changing one's mind about getting a COVID-19 vaccination in a group of 251 unvaccinated participants. In mid-2021, these individuals indicated they had no intention to get vaccinated; by mid-2022, 38% of them reported that they had been vaccinated. Over and above other factors known to be related to vaccination decisions (delay discounting and trust in science), we found that younger participants were more likely to have changed their minds and become vaccinated a year later, especially if they were less tolerant of uncertainty. Of the reasons provided by participants for having been vaccinated, necessity and seeking protection against the virus were the most common. These findings highlight the complex interplay between age, uncertainty, and vaccination decisions. Importantly, these findings will inform health policies, suggesting the need for tailoring interventions to specific concerns in different age groups.

Thinking Beyond COVID-19: How Has the Pandemic Impacted Future Time Horizons?

Older age is reportedly protective against the detrimental psychological impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, consistent with the theory that reduced future time extension (FTE) leads to prioritization of socioemotional well-being. We investigated whether depression severity and pandemic-related factors (regional severity, threat, social isolation) reduce FTE beyond chronological age and whether these relationships differ between younger and older adults. In May 2020, we recruited 248 adults (younger: 18-43 years, older: 55-80 years) from 13 industrialized nations. Multigroup path analysis found that depression severity was a better predictor of FTE than the reverse association in both age groups, suggesting an affective foreshortening of future time. In both age groups, older age was protective against depression severity, and younger age was associated with heightened vulnerability to the negative impacts of pandemic-related factors. Future research should consider the complex interrelationships between FTE, age, and depression severity and the potential impacts of the broader psychosocial milieu.

On pattern completion, cues and future-oriented cognition.

Barzykowski and Moulin's view on involuntary autobiographical memory focuses on automatic activation of representations and inhibitory control mechanisms. We discuss how and when a known neural mechanism - pattern completion - may result in involuntary autobiographical memories, the types of cues that may elicit this phenomenon and consider interactions with future-oriented cognition.

Reinstatement of Event Details during Episodic Simulation in the Hippocampus.

According to the constructive episodic simulation hypothesis, episodic simulation (i.e., imagining specific novel future episodes) draws on some of the same neurocognitive processes that support episodic memory (i.e., recalling specific past episodes). Episodic retrieval supports the ability to simulate future experiences by providing access to episodic details (e.g., the people and locations that comprise memories) that can be recombined in new ways. In the current functional neuroimaging study, we test this hypothesis by examining whether the hippocampus, a region implicated in the reinstatement of episodic information during memory, supports reinstatement of episodic information during simulation. Employing a multivoxel pattern similarity analysis, we interrogated the similarity between hippocampal neural patterns during memory and simulation at the level of individual event details. Our findings indicate that the hippocampus supports the reinstatement of detail-specific information from episodic memory during simulation, with the level of reinstatement contributing to the subjective experience of simulated details.

Divergent thinking and constructing future events: dissociating old from new ideas.

Divergent thinking (the ability to generate creative ideas by combining diverse types of information) has been previously linked to the ability to imagine novel and specific future autobiographical events. Here, we examined whether divergent thinking is differentially associated with the ability to construct novel imagined future events and recast future events (i.e., actual past events recast as future events) as opposed to recalled past events. We also examined whether different types of creative ideas (i.e., old ideas from memory or new ideas from imagination) underlie the linkage between divergent thinking and various autobiographical events. Divergent thinking ability was measured using the Alternate Uses Task (AUT). In Experiment 1, the amount of episodic details for both novel and recast future events was associated with divergent thinking (AUT scores), and this relationship was significant with AUT scores for new creative ideas but not old creative ideas. There was no significant relationship between divergent thinking and the amount of episodic detail for recalled past events. We extended these findings in Experiment 2 to a different test of divergent thinking, the Consequences Task. These results demonstrate that individual differences in divergent thinking are associated with the capacity to both imagine and recast future events.

Creative, internally-directed cognition is associated with reduced BOLD variability.

In a range of externally-directed tasks, intra-individual variability of fMRI BOLD signal has been shown to be a stronger predictor of cognitive performance than mean BOLD signal. BOLD variability's strong association with cognitive performance is hypothesised to be due to it capturing the dynamic range of neural systems. Although increased BOLD variability is also speculated to play a role in internally-directed thought, particularly when creative and flexible cognition is required, there is a relative lack of research exploring whether BOLD variability is related to internally-directed cognition. Thus, we investigated the relationship between BOLD variability and a key component of creativity - divergent thinking - in various tasks that required participants to think flexibly. We also determined whether any associations between BOLD variability and creativity overlapped with, or differed, from associations between mean BOLD signal and creativity. First, we performed task Partial Least Squares (PLS) analyses that compared BOLD signal (either mean or variability) during two future imagination conditions that differed in the amount of cognitive flexibility required: a Congruent condition in which autobiographical details (people, places, objects) comprising an imagined event belonged to the same social sphere (e.g., university) and an Incongruent condition in which details belonged to different social spheres and required greater cognitive flexibility to integrate. Results indicated that the Incongruent condition was associated with a widespread reduction in both BOLD variability and mean signal (relative to the Congruent condition), but in largely non-overlapping regions. Next, we used behavioral PLS to determine whether individual differences in performance on future simulation tasks as well as the Alternate Uses Task relates to BOLD variability and mean BOLD signal. Better performance on these tasks was predominantly associated with increases in mean BOLD signal and decreases in BOLD variability, in a range of disparate brain regions. Together, the results suggest that, unlike tasks requiring externally-directed cognition, superior performance on tasks requiring creative internal mentation is associated with less (not more) variability.

Neural Mechanisms of Episodic Retrieval Support Divergent Creative Thinking.

Prior research has indicated that brain regions and networks that support semantic memory, top-down and bottom-up attention, and cognitive control are all involved in divergent creative thinking. Kernels of evidence suggest that neural processes supporting episodic memory-the retrieval of particular elements of prior experiences-may also be involved in divergent thinking, but such processes have typically been characterized as not very relevant for, or even a hindrance to, creative output. In the present study, we combine functional magnetic resonance imaging with an experimental manipulation to test formally, for the first time, episodic memory's involvement in divergent thinking. Following a manipulation that facilitates detailed episodic retrieval, we observed greater neural activity in the hippocampus and stronger connectivity between a core brain network linked to episodic processing and a frontoparietal brain network linked to cognitive control during divergent thinking relative to an object association control task that requires little divergent thinking. Stronger coupling following the retrieval manipulation extended to a subsequent resting-state scan. Neural effects of the episodic manipulation were consistent with behavioral effects of enhanced idea production on divergent thinking but not object association. The results indicate that conceptual frameworks should accommodate the idea that episodic retrieval can function as a component process of creative idea generation, and highlight how the brain flexibly utilizes the retrieval of episodic details for tasks beyond simple remembering.

Scene Construction and Relational Processing: Separable Constructs?

Imagining hypothetical events often entails the construction of a detailed mental simulation. Despite recent advances, debate still surrounds the fundamental constructive process underpinning simulations supported by the hippocampus. Palombo et al. (2016) report findings that suggest that scene construction drives hippocampal engagement during imagination. However, they fail to consider the findings of a previous study using an extremely similar manipulation that generated similar hippocampal findings, but was interpreted in terms of event specificity and relational processing (Addis et al. 2011). While we applaud the general approach taken by Palombo et al. in attempting to distinguish components of mental simulation, a comparison of these 2 papers has brought into sharp relief how the lack of a common theoretical framework can result in significant interpretative ambiguities. In this commentary, we attempt to identify and clarify these as yet unresolved conceptual issues that will require empirical and theoretical attention in future research.

Episodic specificity induction impacts activity in a core brain network during construction of imagined future experiences.

Recent behavioral work suggests that an episodic specificity induction-brief training in recollecting the details of a past experience-enhances performance on subsequent tasks that rely on episodic retrieval, including imagining future experiences, solving open-ended problems, and thinking creatively. Despite these far-reaching behavioral effects, nothing is known about the neural processes impacted by an episodic specificity induction. Related neuroimaging work has linked episodic retrieval with a core network of brain regions that supports imagining future experiences. We tested the hypothesis that key structures in this network are influenced by the specificity induction. Participants received the specificity induction or one of two control inductions and then generated future events and semantic object comparisons during fMRI scanning. After receiving the specificity induction compared with the control, participants exhibited significantly more activity in several core network regions during the construction of imagined events over object comparisons, including the left anterior hippocampus, right inferior parietal lobule, right posterior cingulate cortex, and right ventral precuneus. Induction-related differences in the episodic detail of imagined events significantly modulated induction-related differences in the construction of imagined events in the left anterior hippocampus and right inferior parietal lobule. Resting-state functional connectivity analyses with hippocampal and inferior parietal lobule seed regions and the rest of the brain also revealed significantly stronger core network coupling following the specificity induction compared with the control. These findings provide evidence that an episodic specificity induction selectively targets episodic processes that are commonly linked to key core network regions, including the hippocampus.

Forget about the future: effects of thought suppression on memory for imaginary emotional episodes.

Whether intentional suppression of an unpleasant or unwanted memory reduces the ability to recall that memory subsequently is a contested issue in contemporary memory research. Building on findings that similar processes are recruited when individuals remember the past and imagine the future, we measured the effects of thought suppression on memory for imagined future scenarios. Thought suppression reduced the ability to recall emotionally negative scenarios, but not those that were emotionally positive. This finding suggests that intentionally avoiding thoughts about emotionally negative episodes may inhibit representations of those memories, progressively reducing their availability to recall.

Constructive episodic simulation, flexible recombination, and memory errors.

According to Mahr & Csibra (M&C), the view that the constructive nature of episodic memory is related to its role in simulating future events has difficulty explaining why memory is often accurate. We hold this view, but disagree with their conclusion. Here we consider ideas and evidence regarding flexible recombination processes in episodic retrieval that accommodate both accuracy and distortion.

Episodic and semantic content of memory and imagination: A multilevel analysis.

Autobiographical memories of past events and imaginations of future scenarios comprise both episodic and semantic content. Correlating the amount of "internal" (episodic) and "external" (semantic) details generated when describing autobiographical events can illuminate the relationship between the processes supporting these constructs. Yet previous studies performing such correlations were limited by aggregating data across all events generated by an individual, potentially obscuring the underlying relationship within the events themselves. In the current article, we reanalyzed datasets from eight studies using a multilevel approach, allowing us to explore the relationship between internal and external details within events. We also examined whether this relationship changes with healthy aging. Our reanalyses demonstrated a largely negative relationship between the internal and external details produced when describing autobiographical memories and future imaginations. This negative relationship was stronger and more consistent for older adults and was evident both in direct and indirect measures of semantic content. Moreover, this relationship appears to be specific to episodic tasks, as no relationship was observed for a nonepisodic picture description task. This negative association suggests that people do not generate semantic information indiscriminately, but do so in a compensatory manner, to embellish episodically impoverished events. Our reanalysis further lends support for dissociable processes underpinning episodic and semantic information generation when remembering and imagining autobiographical events.

The Simpson's paradox and fMRI: Similarities and differences between functional connectivity measures derived from within-subject and across-subject correlations.

Task-related functional connectivity (fc-MRI) indexes the interaction of brain regions during cognitive tasks. Two general classes of methods exist to investigate fc-MRI: the most widely-used method calculates temporal correlations between voxels/regions within subjects, and then determines if within-subject correlations are reliable across subjects (ws-fcMRI); the other calculates the average (BOLD) signal within voxels/regions and then performs correlations across subjects (as-fcMRI). That is, while both methods rely on correlational techniques, the level at which correlations are calculated is fundamentally different. While conceptually distinct, it is not known how well these two methods of fc-MRI analyses converge on the same findings. The current study addresses this question across a number of analyses. First, using default-mode network regions as seeds, we show that as-fcMRI does not strongly predict ws-fcMRI during episodic simulation tasks. Next, we show that the relationship between as-fcMRI and ws-fcMRI is contingent on whether correlations are calculated between regions from the same functional network (default mode or dorsal attention networks) or between regions from different functional networks. Lastly, we compare seed partial least squares (PLS) - a well-established as-fcMRI method - with a novel version of seed PLS that combines the multivariate approach of PLS analyses and within-subject correlations. The results showed that while many regions exhibited congruent as-fcMRI and ws-fcMRI effects, in some regions the two analyses produced effects in opposite directions. Results are discussed in relation to the Simpson's Paradox, a phenomenon in which across-subject correlations are reversed within individuals present in a sample. Overall, our results suggest that the findings of as-fcMRI do not always map onto those from ws-fcMRI. We end by discussing the advantages associated with using ws-fcMRI to assess the task-related interactions between brain regions.

Do strategic processes contribute to the specificity of future simulation in depression?

OBJECTIVES: The tendency to generate overgeneral past or future events is characteristic of individuals with a history of depression. Although much research has investigated the contribution of rumination and avoidance to the reduced specificity of past events, comparatively little research has examined (1) whether the specificity of future events is differentially reduced in depression and (2) the role of executive functions in this phenomenon. Our study aimed to redress this imbalance. METHODS: Participants with either current or past experience of depressive symptoms ('depressive group'; N = 24) and matched controls ('control group'; N = 24) completed tests of avoidance, rumination, and executive functions. A modified Autobiographical Memory Test was administered to assess the specificity of past and future events. RESULTS: The depressive group were more ruminative and avoidant than controls, but did not exhibit deficits in executive function. Although overall the depressive group generated significantly fewer specific events than controls, this reduction was driven by a significant group difference in future event specificity. Strategic retrieval processes were correlated with both past and future specificity, and predictive of the future specificity, whereas avoidance and rumination were not. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that future simulation appears to be particularly vulnerable to disruption in individuals with current or past experience of depressive symptoms, consistent with the notion that future simulation is more cognitively demanding than autobiographical memory retrieval. Moreover, our findings suggest that even subtle changes in executive functions such as strategic processes may impact the ability to imagine specific future events. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Future simulation may be particularly vulnerable to executive dysfunction in individuals with current/previous depressive symptoms, with evidence of a differential reduction in the specificity of future events. Strategic retrieval abilities were associated with the degree of future event specificity whereas levels of rumination and avoidance were not. Given that the ability to generate specific simulations of the future is associated with enhanced psychological wellbeing, problem solving and coping behaviours, understanding how to increase the specificity of future simulations in depression is an important direction for future research and clinical practice. Interventions focusing on improving the ability to engage strategic processes may be a fruitful avenue for increasing the ability to imagine specific future events in depression. The autobiographical event tasks have somewhat limited ecological validity as they do not account for the many social and environmental cues present in everyday life; the development of more clinically-relevant tasks may be of benefit to this area of study.

Imagining future events in patients with unilateral temporal lobe epilepsy.

OBJECTIVES: Imagining future events, which contain episodic and non-episodic details, has been found to (1) engage the temporal lobes bilaterally and (2) be impaired in patients with bilateral temporal lobe pathology. Here, we examined whether unilateral temporal lobe dysfunction also impairs the ability to generate future events. DESIGN: Prospective cross-sectional. METHODS: Twenty patients with a history of unilateral temporal lobe epilepsy [TLE; 10 left (LTLE) and 10 right (RTLE)] and 20 normal control (NC) subjects comparable on age, sex and education completed the Adapted Autobiographical Interview, which required recall of past and generation of future events and distinguished episodic (internal) from non-episodic (external) details. Participants also completed a battery of neuropsychological tests. RESULTS: Patients with unilateral TLE were significantly impaired in provision of internal details for past and future events, but not in the generation of external details. Examination of detail subcategories revealed that patients with LTLE did exhibit a significant deficit relative to patients with RTLE (and NC) with respect to the generation of perceptual details for both past and future events. Moreover, patients with LTLE generated significantly fewer place details for future events (relative to NC only). The overall number of internal details recalled by patients with LTLE was related to semantic fluency. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides the first evidence that unilateral temporal lobe dysfunction is associated with not only impaired recall of past, but also the generation of future episodic details. Clinically, deficits in future thinking may reduce motivation and decision-making, and as such adversely impact behavioural regulation and socialization. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Patients with temporal lobe epilepsy generate less details when asked to describe past and potential future events, particularly with regard to details involving specific events, places and perceptions. These same patients are aware of their difficulties in this realm, but judge their past memories as similar in vividness and even more personally significant than the memories generated by control participants. The deficits in generation of future episodic details were particularly pronounced in patients with left temporal lobe epilepsy. Verbal semantic fluency was correlated with the ability to generate future scenarios.

Divergent thinking and constructing episodic simulations.

Divergent thinking likely plays an important role in simulating autobiographical events. We investigated whether divergent thinking is differentially associated with the ability to construct detailed imagined future and imagined past events as opposed to recalling past events. We also examined whether age differences in divergent thinking might underlie the reduced episodic detail generated by older adults. The richness of episodic detail comprising autobiographical events in young and older adults was assessed using the Autobiographical Interview. Divergent thinking abilities were measured using the Alternative Uses Task. Divergent thinking was significantly associated with the amount of episodic detail for imagined future events. Moreover, while age was significantly associated with imagined episodic detail, this effect was strongly related to age-related changes in episodic retrieval rather than divergent thinking.

Factors that influence the generation of autobiographical memory conjunction errors.

The constructive nature of memory is generally adaptive, allowing us to efficiently store, process and learn from life events, and simulate future scenarios to prepare ourselves for what may come. However, the cost of a flexibly constructive memory system is the occasional conjunction error, whereby the components of an event are authentic, but the combination of those components is false. Using a novel recombination paradigm, it was demonstrated that details from one autobiographical memory (AM) may be incorrectly incorporated into another, forming AM conjunction errors that elude typical reality monitoring checks. The factors that contribute to the creation of these conjunction errors were examined across two experiments. Conjunction errors were more likely to occur when the corresponding details were partially rather than fully recombined, likely due to increased plausibility and ease of simulation of partially recombined scenarios. Brief periods of imagination increased conjunction error rates, in line with the imagination inflation effect. Subjective ratings suggest that this inflation is due to similarity of phenomenological experience between conjunction and authentic memories, consistent with a source monitoring perspective. Moreover, objective scoring of memory content indicates that increased perceptual detail may be particularly important for the formation of AM conjunction errors.

Creativity and Memory: Effects of an Episodic-Specificity Induction on Divergent Thinking.

People produce more episodic details when imagining future events and solving means-end problems after receiving an episodic-specificity induction-brief training in recollecting details of a recent event-than after receiving a control induction not focused on episodic retrieval. Here we show for the first time that an episodic-specificity induction also enhances divergent creative thinking. In Experiment 1, participants exhibited a selective boost on a divergent-thinking task (generating unusual uses of common objects) after a specificity induction compared with a control induction; by contrast, performance following the two inductions was similar on an object association task thought to involve little divergent thinking. In Experiment 2, we replicated the specificity-induction effect on divergent thinking using a different control induction, and also found that participants performed similarly on a convergent-thinking task following the two inductions. These experiments provide novel evidence that episodic memory is involved in divergent creative thinking.

Making the future memorable: The phenomenology of remembered future events.

Although our ability to remember future simulations conveys an adaptive advantage, enabling us to better prepare for upcoming events, the factors influencing the memorability of future simulations are not clear. In this study, participants generated future simulations that combined specific people, places and objects from memory, and for each trial, made a series of phenomenological ratings about the event components and the simulation as a whole. Memory for simulations was later assessed using a cued-recall test. We used multilevel modelling to determine whether the phenomenological qualities of event components (familiarity, emotionality and significance) and simulations (detail, plausibility) were predictive of whether the simulation was successfully encoded and later accessible. Our results demonstrate that person familiarity, detail and plausibility were significant predictors of whether a given future simulation was encoded into memory and later accessible. These findings suggest that scaffolding future simulations with pre-existing episodic memories is the path to a memorable future.